Monday, January 10, 2022

Pacific tropical plumes are very fast

 Our long-term forecasts are crap.  But I'm not saying that because those who produce are also the only ones who can review, and they would deny it.  

The only time we can get a good forecast is when things are moving slowly.  We get a plume hit up in the Yukon and everything falls into place.  Right now, the plumes are swirling at a tremendous rate and we don't know what will hit.

Here, a plume hits directly, and we got a spray of warmth and rain for a day.  I slid all the way down my driveway.  Now we have a high hit and a clipper coming down.

The tropical plumes in the Pacific are weak and chaotic.  We'll have a lot of yo-yo weather.  More physics has to be done to get a real 7 day forecast, and if we had the physics, then we could do much longer forecasts, such as the coming of an ice age cycle.

Physics is never done because the phillies have closed that door.  The Scientific Method has the undesirable trait of knocking down straw horses.  We'll never see it, until we go into philosophical total disaster, which always comes.

All our weather starts in the far Pacific or Indian ocean, and comes at us.  The phillies are happy in that they don't have a clue what is coming.  They like straight-line extrapolations without uncertainties.

Natgas is still way down, so we aren't getting a little ice age  -- ha.


brent said...

Thanks. I will remember this for golf season.

Harold Asmis said...

It implies that each long-term forecast should have a sliding scale for confidence.

brent said...

Exactly. The only thing I trusted was the radar on the day of golf and sometimes they couldn't get that right.

Harold Asmis said...

They will never get the forecast right until they handle clear-air convection. However, the mere fact that it exists is against the religion of clange, and so, they will never study it.