Monday, March 18, 2019

Ocean Activity - Mar 18, 2019


Quite amazing that a lot of heat is still being diverted to the south.  If that full current were to be below the nose, then it's a major ice age.  As it is, you can only really tell of the heat loss is through the ocean temps.


I'll call it as increasing, causing us to be cold.

The tropical plumes have completely stopped.



So, we are frozen for a while.  Natgas is up a few percent.  It'll go way up when they read the new storage report, that there is no more gas.  These guys are slow on the uptake.

We got a month of cold coming up.  As I've said, I don't know what will appear to warm us.

ps. suddenly the Pacific plumes are coming straight East, right to us.  This is warmth.

Hologram Concert to Deliver Full SNC Apology

Reference




A NEW MUSICAL!


SPRINGTIME FOR SNC


A real-life hologram presents a full apology set to music.


The smoke will be so real, you can taste it.

No one in Canadian politics will be spared, including 'that guy's dad'.

Blurb:

I created snc in my image.  At first, there were no 'pure laine' engineers, so we had to fake it with a lot of bribes.  My money went in, and then it went out.  Soon, all 'anglais' engineers were out of business.  You can see all the great engineering we created.

Songs:

I did it my way
Sorry (not sorry)
We are the champions
Revenge is best served cold

All proceeds will go to politicians....

ps.  Actually, this is his real ghost, disguised as a hologram, so people don't get freaked out.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Boeing, Dieselgate and the abuse of physics

Reference


I like to write on the current state of engineering -- it has become too bureaucratic and they have left physics behind.

Boeing found themselves at the short end of the stick, just like VW.  They suddenly needed a fuel-efficient short-haul plane.  They slashed and hacked at the old 737 and came up with a monstrosity, something like putting a 300 hp outboard engine on a 14 foot fishing boat.

This Wile E Coyote thing could not fly, just like a diesel could not run, according to regulations.  In all these places, some bright engineer spoke out and said "There's no physics."  They weren't protected by a union, like I was in the nuclear business, so they were fired.  That just left the weasels, and they said they can come up with software.  The bosses said "Fix it or we'll kill you."

And that's the story.  It's not that the pilots can't fight the software, or just turn it off.  It's a question of stability which the engineers didn't consider.  Once the chaotic behaviour is started, it cannot be stabilized.  No 'software update' can fix this, since are are into new physics -- chaos.

In the nuclear biz, I wrote about this several times -- they used systems that were on the edge of chaotic instability.  Earthquake engineers do this as well.  Such is modern life -- no physics.

ps.  I could also characterize this as a slide from a 'physics purist' odds of 1 in 10 million, to a Facebook 'political expediency' odds of one 1 thousand.  Everything has gone that way.

pps.

SOFTWARE CAN FIX THIS!

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Tropical Plume Report - Mar 16, 2019

So, now everybody is expecting warmer weather.  They only remember the last 20 years, which were wonderful.  If you are a warmie, then you only read projections which go on and on, hotter and hotter.  In the last few years, no warmie newspaper has published actual temperatures, only the projections which get more and more fantastic.

On the real earth, we are running out of natural gas to heat houses in the US.  They forecast the demand to the last puff, and this year they are wrong, as they will continue to be wrong, for the next 20 years.


Our weather for the next month or two is dependent on the behaviour of the tropical plumes, or whatever you want to call them.  For December, when we had our pipsqueak El Nino, we had regular vertical plumes that brought us a lot of heat.

For the last few months we've had 'slashing plumes', that is a plume which crosses the Pacific as vertical, and then slashes down on North America.  This sucked up warm Gulf air, and gave us big thaws, between 'polar vortexes', which have nothing to do with a vortex.  It's just a pretty term.

Now, we have stopped that pattern, and it looks like we'll get high plumes that come in through the Yukon.  This gives us very cold air without the big thaws.

Meanwhile, the slashing plumes always produced Atlantic plumes that hit the UK directly like an arrow in the bulls-eye.  I called that a 'fools paradise' and it looks like it has come to an end.


ps.  high plumes are driving down cold Yukon air.  Looks like maple sugar weather until April.

pps.  still -40 in the Arctic, yeah!

Friday, March 15, 2019

US Runs Out of Natural Gas

The definition of 'runs out' is that they must go to extraordinary measures.  You won't see any big announcements on this.  I just give it a 'good chance' that it will happen next week.  This is what I have predicting all year, and the gunk hits the fan now.


You'll notice that they didn't put much in storage this year, and this year is colder than last, and next will be colder still.  They rely on the temperature turning today, as it did last year, which just skimmed the bottom of the 5 year curve.  But it's going to crash through the bottom.


That's because we got another 'polar vortex' which is really just cold air filling in behind the warm plume.  This one might also be driven a bit by a high plume.  The demand for natgas is going to be huge.

If storage cracks through the bottom, we don't know what that really means.  Do they have room to draw more than the the 5 year band?  I'm thinking not.  Nobody is going to freeze.  It just means that the spot price is going through the roof and some industries will have to close.  If the extreme cold goes to mid-April, as it may, then it's another story.


Spot price in the North East.  Should be fun soon.

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Bomb Cyclone on the Way



On the sea, it would be called a hurricane, but here it is a cyclone.  You can see the centre over Iowa.

With the mimic map, you can see it was caused by a Pacific plume slashing down on us and sucking up the Gulf warm air which would normally just stay there.  This shows the last 72 hours.


Now, the warmies are going to say this is climate change, but this is due as much to the tremendous cold air coming down with the upper plumes, as to the warm air.  If there is a severe difference, then we get a bomb.

ps.  the bomb has gone through Toronto, now it's cold.  Nlfd has ice conditions from 30 years ago.



Ocean currents - Mar 14, 2019

My ocean current guy remains swamped and is days behind.  I can't complain.  These currents are dated Mar 11.


The Atlantic current is disorganized, but there is an attempt to push water to the north.  This should result in a warmer Gulf of Mexico, which gives Toronto warm air.  The ocean temperatures don't show a reduction in southern warmth, but I suspect the warm area will shrink now.


Our saline current from the Arctic ocean is as strong as ever and decimates the Gulf Stream.  This current is a result of the build-up of ice, and is comprised of the left-over saline.  It has been strong ever since the last big El Nino of 2017.



Finally, we focus in on the North Pacific current which continues to shrink.  During the warm years, this was the main engine of North American warmth.  This week there is a very strong current of cold water from the Bering Straight.  In a major ice age, this current mucks up the Pacific flow.


There is no more southern Pacific flow, so this big hunk of warm water should shrink.  The same goes for the Atlantic.


In a major ice age, the warm southern blobs would continue to get bigger.  However, this effect will be felt for the summer, and you will need poly tunnels for your tomatoes.  Our summer will be crap, except for July, where we will 'break records' with stagnant air.

ps.  as the Arctic ice builds up to new records, we will be happy to note that it will become a tropical paradise.


pps.  if you go along with the UN you get a nobel peace prize.  Do not read reality, it doesn't get you anywhere....

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Google Slate Review

I like this a lot better than the Pixel Book.  It breaks apart into a very nice tablet, and the keyboard is good, with a large touchpad.

This was my answer to someone who had to send back her corporate laptop when she became decorporated.  "I have to use Outlook.  I have to use Excel.  I have to use Word.".  I was trying to show her the chromebook and Google Drive.  Nope.  "It's exactly the same!" I said.

Now she can use Outlook with a gmail account.  All the ms apps on Android.  And now all the android apps work great with a large screen.  Someone, right now, is addicted to farmingvillage on Android.  And the beautiful screen shows all the cows in high detail! blah.

It's expensive, but fantastic.  If you don't want anybody running win10 in your house, then it is worth it.  My old guy, with an hpwin10, is always running into trouble, and then he has to call a nice guy in India to take over his computer and fix it.


Plumes aren't what they used to be - Mar 12, 2019


The plume guys were out of action for the last few days.  The plumes look very weak and are lashing down on North America rather than just hitting.  This is giving us one-day thaws and then bitter cold.

It's not like we had in December, with the mini El Nino.  Then the plumes were regular, very strong, and extended for some distance up North.

The water temps still show an extremely strong dump to the South.  I'm recording all this because I totally forget the normal pattern.  I've never seen such a strong flow of hot water down south in the Atlantic, but nobody would believe me, since nobody records it.



All in all, March stays like a lion.  I really don't know what warmth would look like when Spring finally comes.  I suspect it's just an increase in latitude-dependent default weather, which is darn cold.

ps.  Looking at it, the plumes are really chaotic right now.  Before, they were very regular.  Who knows what that means?

What if airplanes ran Windows?



I remember the old joke that if cars ran like Windows.  Now it's airplanes.  The term 'Blue Screen of Death' takes new meaning.

That big blackout a few years ago was a Win thing, although everybody blamed a tree.  The fact was that all the monitoring was done with win computers, and they were experiencing the Great Worm.  They never knew about the tree until the whole grid blew up.

The planes should run Linux.  However, there wouldn't be any drivers for new planes.  :)

ps.  more and more it looks like software has downed the two planes. 

Friday, March 8, 2019

Tomatoes Transplanted

Yeah, the totally miserable weather can't dampen garden enthusiasm!  This year there is no heat anywhere, so use a greenhouse.  I've put the tomatoes into the second and final transplant.  They will go into the greenhouse May 1, with 12 inches on them, and totally rootbound.



Neato.

ps.  poly tunnels will work, as well.

pps.  sun in the backyard, no wind, only -1, and I'm bbq'ing hamburgers in a tropical paradise!

Plume report - March 8, 2019

A tiny speck of warm air is coming in for a few days.


These are weak plumes lashing down on us, so a couple of days at freezing, then default weather at -10, etc, rinse, repeat.

No great amounts of warm water or air seen coming in.  All our warm water in the Atlantic is still flooding down Brazil.  Since this is so depressing, I am only reporting when I see it get above freezing.  This allows lots of refreeze ice on the sidewalks.  :)

I'm waiting for those trudeau climate change ads to warm me up....

ps.  the winter saved me.  Here we are, walking in a park of solid ice at 13 below, using our heaviest ice spikes.  Nobody else around, and the wind whistling.  Then a dog-leash enforcer comes screaming in his pick-up truck, a hundred yards away up a hill of solid ice, and yells to put the dog on a leash, who was right beside me.  He was in his driving shoes with the truck idling.    I did and kept walking.  I think he wanted me to go up the ice hill and get a ticket.  :)   Didn't see him again.  :)

ps.  the above never happened.  Total fiction.

pps.  and that's why you never want a police state, uneducated thugs get full power over you.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

Ocean report - March 7, 2019

No big graphics, everything is almost the same as it was last week.  The heat flowing down at South America continues.  The Pacific current has no reversal.  The tropical plumes seem weak and widely separated.

It all looks like a depressing, cold Spring.  Sorry about that. 


Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Toronto real estate chart


Not much to say here.  FOMO means 'Fear of Missing Out', which is what causes people to buy bitcoin at the peak.  February shows a slight bounce.  Lots of houses for sale around the neighbourhood, all the signs buried in the snow.  The only sales are those people who have had the house a long time and can afford the 20% haircut.  Condos are flat but thousands of units are coming on-line.

Theoretically, things will pick up once the snow melts.  All the people who pulled their listings last year will try again.  When will we call it a crash? 

In the fall of 2017 I called the crash when the Chinese wild buyers suddenly pulled out of Unionville.  It has limped along since then, but all the new housing must cause pressure on people who are strung out.  They held on for a whole year, but can they hold on for another?  We'll see.


Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Plumes take a holiday


So, we are cold.  All the hopes for heat later in the week are with one plume.



Will that California plume go on?  Or will it turn?  The old plume for North America might miss the UK, giving them snow.  We are really looking at a few weeks for heat, but I don't know where it is coming from.


Monday, March 4, 2019

US natgas starts the big climb

I was predicting this last fall, but the mini El Nino got me.  Good thing I never put my money where my mouth is.  The point is that there is no storage and once US north-east natgas drains the bin, then we'll see a record zoom for the price.

For some reason, everybody thinks we'll see heat in March.  I don't see it.  Anyway, if the imaginary warm air comes to the rescue in the next few weeks, the price won't be that high.  If the cold runs beyond the end of the month, as I think it will, then watch out.



Atmospheric plume report - Mar 4, 2019

Just back from a weekend in Huntsville.  About 5 feet of snow on the ground. 


The atmospheric plumes are dull and listless today.  You can see that the Arctic is really churned up by past plumes.  It's only -20 up there.  Without a plume, we'll go to default temps, maybe -10 at night.  The UK plumes have finally stopped.  They had an amazing winter with needle-like plumes constantly hitting them.  Can't keep that up forever. 

Extreme cold for Canada, just as the Libs are doing a climate-change offensive to hide Quebec sleaze.  Every other party would do the same to hold the q-vote.  Such fun. 

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Arctic ice volume is good


Ice volume is powering along.  It should break through the top.  World temperatures have started to go down again after the little El Nino.  Cold.

ps.  Huntsville is amazing this year.  The patio furniture is all buried.


pps.  nothing dramatic in ocean currents or atmospheric plumes.  It all looks settled for a cold Spring.