Thursday, December 31, 2020

Sea level stays low and steady

 The sea level for November is low and steady.

This sea level station is the only one in the world that has remained flat all these years.  With all the others, the land rises or sinks.  Naturally, the warmies only report those that are sinking, like volcanic islands in the Pacific.  

I like this station because the sea level is like sticking a thermometer where the sun don't shine.  It always reflects the complicated satellite method of determining the world temperature.  That has remained steady for now, but I'm expecting it to continue going down.

We now have scientific papers that opine all previous world temperature cycles have been due to chaotic changes in ocean currents.  They wimped out with this cycle because their colleagues would throw Merlot at them in the faculty club.  

My big question in geophysics is 'Where does the heat energy go?'.  I had thought it was a simple transfer to the Southern Hemisphere, but it looks like the whole world goes cold.  I can think of a new hypothesis, but it needs 'in situ' physics measurements and all that money is going to carbon reduction.  The warmies state that all physics was done in 1850, and that we know everything.  There is no hope for physics and math in this world.

They'll all get degrees in Social Media.  Yeah!

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Guardian admits that it's cold


I was a member of the Manchester Guardian.  It was fun to mention certain things in the comments.  However, there was such a nasty response by the warmies.  This is the warmiest newspaper in the world.  Therefore, any mention of cold brings a smile to my cold heart.

The UK is now Labrador.  In a few years, the guardian will admit it.  And it is fun to watch the progress.


More on Croatia earthquake

 Central Croatia is located in a monster valley, located in compressive tectonics.  The whole Mediterranean basin is closing, creating the Alps and surrounding mountain ranges.  The Croatia mountains are moving with a sliding thrust, which has both strike-slip and compression.

Each monster zone around the world has about a one in 500 chance to light up with an M8 or 9.  That means that each year, Fate rolls a 500 sided die for each zone.  One side is painted red.  If the red comes up, then KABOOM!  

If there is something that looks like a foreshock, as with the recent earthquake, then the die is 100 sided for most areas.  If the Fish calls it, then the die might go to 20 sided.  All of this is fairly irrelevant for day-to-day life, but is good for planning purposes.

If the Big One rolls up, then we are looking at a PGV of 1-2 m/s on the valley soil and hanging wall.  This is enough to throw rocks as with Kern County 1952.  No building can take this, yet if you are on the footwall rock, then it is only a few centimetres per second.

If you want to build something that will survive, then you need tremendously deep foundations.  I doubt that anybody has done that.  Might not help with the giant boulders rolling down the mountains.

ps.  I define monster zones as that which needs large earthquakes to maintain its form.  Thus, we have very smooth subduction zones and then we have sharply defined mountain valleys.  All these zones would fill in and become ragged, if not for huge earthquakes.  Once the earthquakes stop, then everything becomes smooth and boring.

pps.  and as a great Christmas present from the fish, the die goes back to 500 sides in a few months.

Croatia sets up for a big earthquake


The series of new earthquakes is exactly the right length for an M6.4.  

You can see that the earthquakes (including the March one) are lined up along the monster valley that contains Zagreb.  I've written many times about monster valleys in the heart of a compressive mountainous regime.  They are the locations for huge 'blind thrust' earthquakes.  These are earthquakes that turn everything in the valley to dust.  (Look up blind thrust, on my search, on the right)

This is the exact situation the Italian seismologists found themselves in.  When there was a smaller earthquake in the mountains, the newspapers asked if it meant anything for a large earthquakes.  The seismologists came up with the usual '1 in 100' odds.  A politician translated it to 'No Chance!'.  A day later a big one came.  The seismologists went to jail.

Because of the geology I give it a 1 in 20 of an M8 in the next year.  Does this mean everybody should live in tents in the winter?  No, maybe the odds are really 1 in 100.  I don't want to go to jail.

But, we were looking at Croatia for a post-covid trip.  Nope.  I'll go somewhere perfectly safe, like Indonesia or Greece.  :)

The truth is that you can't find any spectacular scenery without an earthquake risk.

ps.  the return time for a monster earthquake should be 3-500 years.  You can look it up.  These earthquakes are so dangerous because that is way beyond living memory, and everybody puts up stone-rubble houses in the last 100 years or so of the time left.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Incredibly weak tropical plumes affect the world


Once again we are in new territory.  The tropical plumes have become really weak, and slashing down on North America.  The plume sucks up Gulf air and normally proceeds to hit the UK.  But now, everything is just flaccid.  

No strong plume thrusting for the northern hemisphere.  Needless to say, this has never happened before, and since I am the only one watching this, nobody will believe anything.

 Of course, the UK is having fun.  Two years ago I said 'Have fun being Labrador.', and they are.  However, nobody is telling them they aren't wearing any Gulf Stream clothes.  No warmth for them.  They have to content themselves with covid, brexit, and the carbon warming dream.  

Anyway, for Toronto, we are getting successive blasts of warm and cold.  Lots of snow coming.

ps.  the weak slashing plume on Europe does exactly the same thing it does for us.  It brings up more southerly warm air.

Monday, December 28, 2020

Game of the year


This is a game for all ages.  If my 30-somethings ever got down to business, then I'd have grandkids laughing at me.  "Oh, Granpa, you always roll zeros.'  Then I could lecture the 3 year olds on probability and still roll zeros.  

ps.  right now, the kids are still arguing about the last game.
pps.  ok, maybe don't get it.  The whole covid house is forcing me to play every night. blah.

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Linux: Christmas Fun

 So, if you are an old man, then the Christmas 'inbetween' gets boring, especially in our deep, dark, covid dungeon.  Get a new media machine!


This is a spiffy machine.  Dump mswin and go for Linux.  You can connect with bluetooth to your soundbar.  Everything is wonderful!  The android boxes stream well, but they cheap out on the browser.  This does everything well.

I added a Flirc.


This allows my remote to do simple things with Kodi.  It's all neat.

ps.  and the main reason was to play Google Stadia on the big screen.
pps.  excellent for Stadia
more:  my son has approved it.
final:  I found a game for 8 year old girls.  I love it!

Friday, December 25, 2020

Merry White Christmas


This is my front and there is more snow to come.

And we have another perfect couplet of plumes in the world.  Quite a show for Christmas -- Synchronized Pluming.

Meanwhile, the UK is also enjoying our weather.  It will only get colder for them.

I'm not saying anything controversial today, so even warmies can sit by the fire.  :)

ps.  my charts show that as we get colder, my readership drifts towards oblivion.  I may have to quit and start a Signal group.

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Northern heat flow takes a break for the holidays


We'll go over the importance of these 'atmospheric rivers' of heat energy.  Much is summarized in my backgrounder which can be clicked on the right.  

We have great physics which limits the highest surface temperature of the ocean to about 30C.  If more heat energy is thrown in to try to get higher, then the atmosphere goes unstable.  If there is a 'swirl' to the winds, then we have a hurricane, cyclone, or typhoon.  This is a marvelous construction that curls in on itself and can maintain it's form as long as it is going over 30C water.  As it goes over, the low pressures in the middle can extract 10 times more heat energy because it increases heat transfer by evaporation.  I have to fantasize a little because nobody does the physics.  If they did do the physics, then they would have to keep quiet.

Anybody who does physics has to throw in a sop to keep off the warmie wolves.  

A recent article on atmospheric physics declined to throw a fish.

“The re-emergence of this large-scale PDO pattern tells us there is much more than an isolated La NiƱa occurring in the Pacific Ocean,” Patzert added. “These shifts can trigger decade or longer droughts in some regions and damaging floods elsewhere.”

I am amazed.  They decline to say that this overwhelms any carbon influence.  But, still, it's progress.

Okay, the cyclone is the most efficient way to dump heat for the ocean, but if there is no curl in the winds, then we have the generation of an atmospheric plume.  We can consider this a non-swirling hurricane.  They won't be flying in drones for this any time soon.  This big mess of churning atmosphere soon throws out a jet of hot, wet air.  The pressure is still low, evaporating more heat, and the plume/jet goes on to give us warmth at the polar extremes.

Right now, we only have two plumes in the North, which is a record low.  The Atlantic one is missing the UK.

Good for them!  Of interest to Toronto is the big plume hitting Alaska.  That gives us extreme cold for the beginning of January.

Today Rain. Wind south 30 km/h gusting to 60. High 9 with temperature falling to zero this afternoon.

Tonight Rain mixed with snow changing to snow this evening. Risk of freezing rain this evening. Snowfall amount 10 to 15 cm. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40. Temperature steady near minus 1. Wind chill near minus 8.  (forecast for Christmas)

Big, illegal, toboggan fest tomorrow!  You'll have to wear a scarf over you face anyway.

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Toronto White Christmas

 How many years has it been since the kids could toboggan on Christmas Day?  Can't remember.

No ocean tropical plumes can be generated in the middle of the Pacific Ocean right now.  You need over 30C, and it is very cold right now.  So, we get weak plumes generated from far away.  We've had the 'pinwheel pattern' for a while now, and this drags up warm Gulf air.  For Christmas we are going to get the weather from a strong hit to the middle.  

My rhyme.

Hit the Alaska armpit - Toronto freezing spit

Hit the southern ports - Shovel snow in shorts

Hit in between -- Toronto icy sheen

Thus, we can predict the weather.  :)  As a translation, if the plume hits high, then we get Alberta clippers, and 40 below in Muskoka.  Toronto is always warmer because of Lake Ontario.

A hit at Vancouver, then we get mucky freezing weather.

A slashing pinwheel to the south, then we get warm winter weather.

ps.  if we are really good, we can get an ice lock.  That's everything frozen to 30 below, and no plumes can penetrate.  In July, we get a heat lock, where no ocean plumes can give us a speck of a breeze.

Fancy New Furnace


We are headed into an ice age.  Whether it is a mini cycle like the 70's or big one like the Little Ice Age, we don't know.  We have no history with all the spiffy satellite measurements.  This is one thing the warmies don't tell you, the satellites haven't been there forever.  They just ignore history, but I try to incorporate it into the physics.

Installed by my fav -- LB Heating, it's a work of technical genius.  My old one was starting to scream with failed bearings, but it always shook the house when it was on.  It only had one power level.  In this sort of near-freezing weather, it would blast for 5 minutes and stop.  

The new one has multiple levels, and it starts self-adjusting after 18 hours.  It's so quiet!

Anyway, for an ice age, it's 97% efficient and can really turn up the power when it's 30 below, which we will get soon.  

In another 5 years of increasing cold, some of the fence-sitting warmies will give up.  The hard-core will give up when Trump does.  Don't forget that they face a shattering economic fall from grace, so they will just try to hide.  In Canada we can take the ice age because of natural gas.  We can burn the solar cells and windmills for warmth.  :)  You still need an air conditioner for July.

ps.  just talked to my brother in Ottawa and he regrets getting just a two speed.

Monday, December 21, 2020

Pacific is colder than ever


An ice age is the gift that keeps on giving.  The Pacific current is very strong to the West, but it is cold.

Suffice to say that I've never seen this sort of cold, even after the big 2016 El Nino.  Anybody who says this is normal is blowing cold smoke.  The big question is how long it can go on.

We are falling into a common 'mini ice age' which is a 20 year cycle like the 70's.  Every year it gets colder.  The warmies keep up their spirits by announcing this the 'sixth warmest year', then the seventh, and then the eighth.  But this is since 1980.  We don't do a good job with the 30's or the 60's.  Everything in the past is ignored.

We didn't have these maps at the beginning of the other ice ages.  I wonder where the heat energy goes.  This sort of ocean movement (cold water in the Pacific) could go on for a long time.  I used to think that the heat just goes to the Southern Hemisphere, but it is now showing as much cold as the North.  A great mystery.

ps.  we can use this projection as fish wrap.  They drew a straight line on a very small bump in the temperature charts. We won't hear anything more on this, as they will abandon the charts again.

Saturday, December 19, 2020

A great Christmas present from Mr. Polar Ice

 So, worried that all the ice caps of the world will melt in time for Christmas?  Fear not, the polar ice has come to rescue us.

The Antarctic has been colder than ever, with a huge ozone hole.  

This shows the ice extent is way over the average.  Many studies have shown that there has been a general increase in the past 40 years.

But today marks 'Arctic Cross-Over Day' when the total ice volume is not the lowest any more.

It's going to increase and become the top, just so we can be happy.  The happiest people will be the UK, because now they can have outdoor skating rinks.  Ice for everyone!

ps.  I just love this headline

The year after will be the seventh warmest, etc.


And that's that

Friday, December 18, 2020

The physics of 4K movies

 Everybody and their dog is getting a 4K screen soon.  What I've run across are both true 4K movies, and movies that say they are 4K.

I have found that true 4K movies have tremendous extra detail.  You can watch the movie again and again, and see different things when focussing on one corner or another.  In 4K, I like slow, scenic movies.  Action/thriller movies do not improve with 4K because your eye is always drawn to the main action.

Only a very small spot on the screen can be resolved by the eye while watching.  

Then we have 'not really 4K' movies.  These are modern movies that generate special effects that are cheaper by only doing lesser resolution.  The special effects are 'murky' or mucked up by rain and darkness.  You can't watch the corners.  Worst, are the old films that they have pimped up to be called 4K.  These were filmed with 35 mm film which is a max of 1080p.  They use computer upscaling, which merely does what your brain does -- filling in standard details.  There is no extra enjoyment in watching.

Just looked at a bit of LOTR '4K' release.  It is nice and bright, and is good for first-time watchers, but doesn't add anything.  The special effects are mucky.  I only watched 10 minutes.

Thursday, December 17, 2020

State of the Oceans - December 20, 2020

 I hope you are ready for Kovid Kris Kringle.  We just had one pair of kids going through quarantine, they'll leave and another pair comes in.  Glad we didn't downsize the house yet.

We open up with the totally weird tropical plume map.  The cold Pacific has stopped sending us high-energy air.  No plume is getting up into the Arctic region.

You can't imagine how bad this is for warmy-ism, and for those English Majors who didn't get a warm coat from the thrift store.  In Canada, we are getting very weak plumes that are just sending down weak clippers.  

The latest ocean currents show that nothing has changed, and the Pacific is still sucking up a huge amount of cold water from Antarctica.  I suppose that might make things warmer at the South Pole, so we'll get some good warmy articles about that.

No plumes hitting the North Pole has meant rapid freezing.

The slope of this curve shows the ice accumulation rate.  Naturally, the warmies have concentrated on the rest of the curve which started very low because of a totally bizarre Pacific current.  Never seen that, and probably never will again.  The historic plots start to bend at the max, but this year should go through the rest.

The radar shows a nice snow storm out East.  60 cm in the mountains.  New York City has to get out the push-brooms.  Neat.

That's all folks!


Everybody should just kill themselves, but cremation throws out too much carbon, since people are the #1 carbon storage.  :)  Or maybe we should just huddle under a blanket in the snow.

pps.  and forget Christmas, it's cultural appropriation from the ancient Romans.

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Android tv boxes - not in Kansas anymore

 Blah.  Tried to upgrade my android tv box.  I do it every year or two, and cascade the old ones to the bedroom and such.  But watch out!  They've been in a race to the bottom and cutting out standard things, and filling them with custom bloatware.

My first box looked good, but didn't come with an optical audio port.  You can't connect to your soundbar thing.  Second one was so filled with junk it barely moved.  They even had a custom playstore selling junk.  blah.

I'm giving up for now.  Turns out you can speed the box if you delete almost all the apps.  Amazing.

ps.  to be cheery, I've bought my Christmas present, which I will let the wife give me.  It's a media mini pc, and I'll put Linux on it.  I'll run some articles on it.

pps. just found out that everybody is leaving the audio optical for bluetooth.

Monday, December 14, 2020

Google Stadia works well with Linux


I'm quite amazed, but it means that the browser is sufficient to run these games.  For me, I can't get beyond the first training gate, but I'm sure I'll get through one day.

I'm using an old xbox1 controller, but playing this game, or any game, instantly flares my sciatica which is normally dead.  Something about the tension.

So I'm trying to get it to work on the 4k tv, with an android box.  My old box has a ridiculous lag time, so I'm renovating with a new powerful box and new ethernet cable.  These android boxes have gone down in price tremendously.   I'm getting a new one at half the price of the old one.

With the cable, I have found a tremendous difference in speed with the new ugreen Cat7 cables on ammie, over my old cat6.  As well, it matters that you put the high-speed stuff all on the same 1G switch.  Makes a huge difference if one is on the router hub.  If you need multiple high-speed connections you might want a new switch since it turns out that the old ones can only support one stream at the 1G speed.

Threading a new cable through the basement is easy, since you just tape on the new cable and pull back the old one.  La La!

Waiting for my deliveries today.  Then I can play lying on my stomach in the tv room.  Hopefully, my back will be okay.  Right now, you can try Google Stadia for free for a couple of months.  Games are good for old folks, keeps the alzies away.

ps.  tested with direct fiber to the home.  

pps.  all those recommended android tv boxes are cheaper because they don't include optical audio without telling anyone.  You have to look closely.  I returned the first one.  I just don't believe it!

more:  and now the UK is blaming us for the cold.  Look at the Gulf Stream you ninnies!

Saturday, December 12, 2020

Ocean plume couplet - Atlantic and Pacific


This doesn't mean much, except the ocean plumes are in a chaotic mess right now.  With earthquakes, a couplet means identical earthquakes.  They are always small, and due to fluid motions.  

The same with this.  It's just interesting to me, since I've never seen it.  In physics terms, it means that the ocean plumes are so weak, the can't penetrate the Arctic air.  For Toronto, it might mean that the warm Gulf air gets dredged up more often.  For the UK, it means cold weather, since these plumes are their only source of heat.

ps.  we just opened the Turing Machine game for the 30ish kids.  It teaches basic logic and how computers work.  Maybe even some physics.  They are all FB and don't have a clue about all this.  They decided to skip levels, and then quickly went back to Stage 1. :)

Friday, December 11, 2020

Unusual ocean plume pinwheel brings up a sliver of warmth


Cold water in the Pacific has caused our normal ocean plumes to start from the far west.  For a while the pattern was a high hit with Alberta clippers coming down on us.  Then the hits got lower and lower, bringing us the normal cold.

Now there has been a pinwheel of strikes to the continent, with this last one being very low.  As with last year, that sucks up warmth from the Gulf.  You can see the sliver that will give us a day of rain.  The mess that is out in the ocean is totally chaotic right now and it is not holding a pattern.

Nevertheless, we see signs of a nasty winter.  My old furnace is losing a bearing and I just ordered a new one.  I just got a super-efficient fancy one because I don't want all that carbon warming us up.  :).  Or maybe I'm expecting an ice age.

For those who want to justify a new furnace, the Arctic ice is back on track to dive into the crowd and become a record year.

The little tick at the end is because ocean plumes have stopped going north.  Europe was enjoying warm weather because the remnants of plumes were coming up from Africa, going through Europe and dumping heat energy on the Arctic ice.  That caused lots of warmie headlines.

The north temperature anomalies are finally moving on, but lots more warmie headlines left.

ps. with the straight temperature map, you can see that the 'Europe Notch' is closing up.  

The very cold air is just above Toronto, waiting for a little nudge.  We might expect the Arctic island of Spitsbergen to be icebound this year or next.  That was the main marker for the start of the 'Little Ice Age', which was caused by chaotic ocean currents, as confirmed by modelling.  Of course, they said that this warming was not caused by that (to save their skins).

Thursday, December 10, 2020

For November 2020, global temperatures flat as a pancake


Here's the last bit since 2016

The very last bit shows almost no change over the last month, although the general trend is down.  The sea level was down though, and I expected a bit more of a drop.  Not too bad.

The happy people at the UN put their ruler on the last rise and blared that 2020 would exceed 2016.  Just like the vote, people live in their fantasies.  This last bump was caused by a mini Pacific reversal, and that's gone.  I expect a general trend downward.

Also, if you look at the numbers then this November is the hottest on record, because the 2016 spike missed that month of the year.  Still, it's a bit sneaky to trumpet that.

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Covid bad physics continues


I just love bad physics.  It's all we get these days.  First of all, the other guy should be wearing a face shield, then he would just goober the inside.  Second, the particles hit the eyes first and suck right in.  In any scenario where people say you are sucking in through the nose, the eyes are worse.  Probably a factor of ten.  

So, go ahead and use your face shield like I do.  This is garbage.

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Cherry-Picking 101

 If you want to win a point in debate, then you've got to know how to cherry-pick.  In the Philosophical Sciences, that is choosing things that are on your side, and ignoring the rest.

Here's the temperature anomaly map, which is the current temperature with the average taken out.  It shows what areas are warmer than normal.

So, if you are writing a story for the warmie press (the only place with money), then you would look at this and say "The western Arctic is warm, lets look for people with thawing houses.'.  You would ignore the UK.  You might get something out of Greenland.

For Toronto weather right now, we are getting continuous Alberta Clippers, but it's not very cold.

That's because the ocean plumes are hitting us right, but Alberta is warm with covid heating up.  Thus, we are just keeping around freezing.  The clippers are keeping the warm Gulf air away.

This can't last, and the clippers will soon have some bite to them.  Merry Christmas!

Toronto: Finding the last Christmas tree

 So Mr Grinch said:  'No way we're going out there to fight for a Christmas tree.  We got this nice tiny lit artificial Birch tree.  Maybe I'll throw some boughs around from the back.  We're supposed to stay home.'

And the little Cindy-Lou Who-bunch cried out:  'Get a real tree you Grinch!'.  We were up north of Toronto Thursday and looked all over.  We asked the locals:  "Nope, all the trees are gone."

Today, on Saturday, we looked for a Christmas tree farm.  They rolled up all their signs and dug themselves underground.  But we had the equivalent of the Uber Super Charge.  One guy chopped all the trees on his property and was selling them on a construction lot.  $20 a foot.  And he only had 12 foot ones.

So, we finally zoomed into the local Home Depot.  We bought a 7 foot for $40, but they were all farm-wrapped, so we took a chance.  I'm waiting for it to drop.


ps.  the kids in California said that all trees are gone.  They also have to buy them totally dead, since they warm up before they can suck in water.  They should put water bags on them.

Nuclear waste people start drilling


This is exciting.  The wasters are wasting money drilling in the exact same geology and the exact same political situation.  Like before, they will cherry-pick their results, and come up with a very narrow layer of good rock.  They will ignore why all the surrounding rock is bad.  Then they will make their presentation and get rejected.  So much fun.

I'm glad it provides employment and also provides funding for the seismometer network.  

Toronto housing may be cracking again


Who knows?  The big boost brought along by gov't largesse may have peaked.  We had our spurt in the neighbourhood, but nothing is going on now.  Maybe, tis the season.  

Sooner or later all the zombies have to fall down.  

Friday, December 4, 2020

Sackcloth and Ashes, along with self-whipping


I'm waiting for the new global temperatures chart.  I expect it to sink, like the sea level.  If it doesn't, then I'll don my virtual hair shirt, and moan a lot.

This reveals what the warmie goal was all along -- Everybody wants to control our lives.  Everybody wants to climb the social ladder and have a pulpit to preach to the choir.  

However, there is no money or glory in basic physics -- all those people are dead.  We had our finest moment when the Russians launched Sputnik, and everybody realized they had been caught sleeping in the lazy 50's.  Old crazymusk can have the monopoly with spacex.  The telsa thing is zooming along with climate, but is doomed by scaling.  Not enough nickel and lithium in the world, or electricity.

I just love this crazy world.

ps.  one UK arctic blast burns more carbon than all the hair-shirting.  Next headline:  Extreme Cold Causes Carbon to Zoom!

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Warmies get Galileo


Here's a book you must buy for Christmas.  In a stunning reversal of logic, the warmies have put this guy on their side.  I always had him on my side, mainly for promoting the Scientific Method, and dropping imaginary cannon balls.

Anyway, I'm throwing in the sea level from my favourite station.  Sea level has made a big drop for this station.  I have a 100% correlation to world temperatures.  When this level drops, the world temperatures show a drop.  And there is basic physics (a mechanism) here.  No 'magic' needed.  

See the backgrounder link to the right for an explanation on how the sea acts as a big thermometer.