Monday, November 30, 2015

Betting on the earthquake

I won't make a penny, but I'm reasonably certain that we'll have a full M7 sequence in Oklahoma soon enough.  They open all their closed wells after a week.  All those involved in this will win the Darwin Awards Champions of the Decade.  Nobody will come close.

Who are the other big money winners?

The busgus - when the midwest is destroyed, they'll get huge amounts of money for their silly projects in California.  Could we see a reason why they won't come near to Oklahoma?

Canada - oil at $100 again.  The oil sands won't look so dirty.

Oil futures investors - put $5 down for expensive oil in a year.  It's like a certain lottery ticket.

Saudis - they'll be rolling in the dough, and can finance more of things we won't talk about.

*Darwin Awards

**this is satire.

Second Oklahoma earthquake wave starts

This is on the main line, a highly directional M4.5, which has been registered as a 5.4 in the direction of the hammer.  We should expect a bunch of these, and this will be the #2 attempt on the 10-chamber Russian Roulette gun.

Once we have the 4 or 5 major quakes, then there will a slow diffusion of the strain field, causing many quakes in the OK mechanism, and possibly tickling New Madrid again.  Last time I gave a Yellow Knick-Knack warning for all those people on soft soil in Eastern North America.  I don't what I'll do this time.

This was a shallow shear giving the highest intensity yet for a strike-slip.  Every time the strain shifts, all the injectors give a little cheer, since it opens up the rock a bit more.  They better hurry up and make their money now, you never know when it will end.  The Tragedy of the Commons.

To repeat, this will be the second strong signal for a New Madrid-type sequence.  However, the signals could go on a long time.  I give each signal a 1 in 10 odds of being right.

PS - The great experiment.  I sometimes use the expression 'Too stupid to live'.  But how stupid?  It would be great for those Repub candidates to have a debate OK at right time.  Then something good will come of this.  :)  And we look at the trump, who would answer our question.

UN - FRIGGIN - BELIEVABLE  This earthquake was actually 'upgraded' to a 4.7  I've never seen this.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Justin Trudeau, put your science money into seismic

We might finally realize that Harper never really saved any money.  He just let things fall apart while giving big tax breaks.  That was his way to try and get the economy going, but it didn't work.  All tax breaks go to buying big screen tv's, infrastructure money goes to Niagara Tunnels to Nowhere.  Now it's Justin's turn.  All the necessary money can be raised by taxing legal recreational drugs.  :)

I'm a big believer in the idea that all this extra money should go into getting more money, or saving long-term as in health care, or providing a safety net for people to get back on their feet.  You've read my views on turning Toronto into Palo Alto, and Port Hope in Nuclear City.  As if any of that will happen.  Now comes the idea of turning Canada into a huge seismic exporter.

I had my golden days of creating new seismic networks.  That was amazing stuff, and then Harper killed the opportunity.  Now I want us to fund other instrumentation, especially strong ground motion.  We can forget about California because they've got it all wrong.  Align ourselves with Taiwan, they got some brains.

Right now I want this.

If I'm right it's a 16 bit 2g accelerometer.  That's perfect, and what I got for Darlington many years ago.  It's way too expensive right now.  But it can be cheaper in bulk.  Mate it with a Raspberry Pi, or some such thing.  Have it buffer the readings like a dashcam, and send upon request.  So nifty.  We could export millions.  It would help Okies with their insurance claims, it could help insurance companies deny claims.  :)  Always sell to both sides in a war!

Go for it!

We can still be big in conventional seismic, but the volume is low.

Shades of the Great Cornwall-Messina Earthquake of 1944

Must have been a shallow thrust to give an Intensity 4 for such a small earthquake.  Note that it was only felt south of the border.  :).  The 1944 quake is my absolutely favourite and I've studied everything I could find on that.  I also had lots of in-laws who experienced it.  It started my whole 'rock and soil' investigation.  I suspect we could have another one, since everything along the river is probably active.  This is where the Ottawa Graben intersects the megathrusts.  A fun party!

*Note to Liberals -- Seismic has fallen onto hard times in Canada.  You can put some money into that, or gouge industry for it.

PS - This is what I want for Christmas, but at $30 not $300.  You could connect it to an old android phone.

Oklahoma strain field may have hit New Madrid

This is fun speculation, the good part about science that never gets outside the ivory walls.  We used to call this 'corridor talk' or 'beer gab'.  Such talk is the heart and soul of science, and it has been killed by the PR department, and the need to be 'never wrong'.  Canada is talking about pouring billions into science, money we don't have, but it will be wasted if it goes down conventional channels.

I've written a lot of advanced computer analysis, the type that is never used for conventional earthquake science.  One such method is 'discrete element' modelling.  It looks at the fundamental physics between particles or elements of a fault.

One observation from this analysis is the tremendous distance a strain pulse can 'diffuse' through fractured rock.  In an elastic medium, a strain disturbance cannot go more than about 2 diameters from a disturbance, such as an excavation.  With fractures, there is almost no limit.  Depending on fundamental properties, there can be a slow diffusion out to several diameters.

The Oklahoma mechanism acts as one big excavation in fractured rock.  The injection of gas frack waste causes strain relief, and the effect is exactly the same as if you were cutting a big hole.  My hypothesis is that New Madrid is now feeling this.

Unlike 'Consensus Science' or 'Adhoc Mucking', this hypothesis can easily be shot down by further observation.  If we have another major strain event we can see if NM is affected a few days later.  If not, then we're golden.  If it is, then we should watch for the main thrust fault extending beyond the old shear wings.  That would be fun!

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Oklahoma set for a winter earthquake

Ok, the odds of the Big Sequence hitting in winter are 1 in 100.  That puts it out of the minds of politicians and the media, but somebody, somewhere, should be planning for this.

I continue to look for signals, but they have a poor chance of actually predicting anything.  But it's fun.  The latest signal is something I've waiting for, which is the sign of a large strain field.  You can't have so much activity on the northern shear fault without it popping up earthquakes everywhere.  In fractured rock that strain disturbance can go very far indeed, and I wouldn't be surprised that New Madrid is feeling it.  Needless to say, this has been happening recently.

No seismometers were around in 1811 to register early signs of the New Madrid Sequence.  It probably took thousands of years to get up to where OK got in a few.  But the NE trending shear zones are constrained at the ends, and that's where you need thrust wings.  NM is completely the opposite with the big thrust in the middle and two shear wings.  That adds another uncertainty to OK.

A winter quake like 1811 is my biggest nightmare, and I've done the scenario for Toronto, which still stays at 1 in 1000.  All the electricity is off as well as gas.  All the oil is running down the river.  The busgus should be into this planning, but they are chasing rainbows in California.  The probably can't even touch the after-quake biz, because that's fema's job.  And they make the busgus look smart.

So, the planning will never get done.  Cell phones will last an hour or two maybe.  Like 1811, it will be a sequence of 3 huge earthquakes, so everybody better be in tents.  Only the army could handle this, but how much stuff do they have hanging around?  All the bridges will be down.

I can't go too much into this, because it is generally hopeless to pursue this line of thought.  It's best if everybody just covers their ears, and go "La, la, la.  Can't hear you!"

PS:  Get a yurt (Pacific Yurts)

Warning:  Although excellent for earthquakes, they are no good for tornadoes.  :)

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

New Madrid responds to little sister

A whole bunch of 3's have just popped at the top of the New Madrid thrust section.  Somebody is jealous of Oklahoma getting all the attention.  NM is a natural seep but with the exact same mechanism as OK.  I don't expect anything from this, but it is always interesting.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Fear Finally Feasts on Oklahoma


I finally have an Okie who reads my stuff.  I can't feel so detached and call them dumb as dirt.  They are living, breathing dumb people.  :)  So far all the big 6-ish earthquakes have had their barrels pointed away from the people, but that won't last.

I think the media will now go 'the other way', casting horrible irrational fear for big bucks.  Poor Okies, they threw away science education, and now they are being hit with science.  I have no doubt that we'll get a full New Madrid-type sequence within a year.  This will flatten all buildings on soil and destroy the Cushing oil tanks.

But cheer up, not everybody will die!  The New Madrid studies showed that anybody on firm soil or rock never felt a thing.  Seriously, the uncertainties are huge, the directivity is a factor of 10 in PGV, and soil is a factor of 10 or 100.  PGV goes up a factor of 2 for every intensity unit.  A well-built frame won't have structural damage until the PGV gets over 50 cm/s.

I wish for Christmas that they will now install strong motion instruments, now that the fear thing is fully exposed.  Perhaps they didn't want to alarm people before.  If the area becomes fully instrumented we'll save countless lives elsewhere by showing how wrong engineers are right now.  It will finally show that PGV rules over PGA, and kill off those soft-story condos.  But I don't expect much.  :)

Lest anybody think I am callous and cruel, I give this PC statement:  Sorry.

For those thinking of building a new house soon, you don't have to move to California to reduce your risk.  Stay out of the valleys, and pick firm soil.  Put in a dang-tootin basement!  Pour your foundations on beams connected by screw piles that have gone down to refusal.  Fill around the basement with structural foam popcorn.  Pour the walls with those integrated forms, and use a steel roof system.  Better yet, put in a concrete dome house, but that's hard to furnish.

PS, Dear Okies, this is the final screamy, shoot-the-messenger stage where all rational people abandon you, lest they fall into the Italian Trap.  Note the complete absence of the busgus, this doesn't do their fund-raising any good.  I should shut down soon, as well.

PS2:  Whew, seems to have stopped.  I can go back to my holiday.

PS3:  Tuesday, M4, deep, probably strike-slip, right on the shear line.  I was hoping to go to bed without a major earthquake on that line for 24 hours.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Oklahoma earthquakes start up big again

I shouldn't be writing this, but here we go again.  This is a deep normal earthquake with the 'hammer' going into the Earth.  That's why it is being identified as 6-ish on the other side of the world.  A bunch of these on the fault, and I'm going to issue Alert #2.  :)  As I was saying on g+, I estimate we can go up to 10 'false' alarms.  A random 'Italian Cluster' has a 1 in 100 chance of going on.

I expect another 4 of these 6-ish earthquake before I issue another yellow alert.  This time I'll go beyond knick-knacks as my count goes up, probably into practising 'Duck and Cover'.  :)

PS:  Com'on Big Busgus, slip in some strong motion instruments.  You'll never get another chance to record a 7 up close and personal.

PS2:  The M3.5 right after it was a shallow thrust.  We should really expect the thrusts to get bigger.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Geofish Issues Yellow Alert for New Madrid Earthquake Sequence

I am interrupting my bonding time with my dog to issue this Yellow Alert.  All of the recent events in Oklahoma have been along the northern fault.  Although reported as 4-somethings, they are really 5-somethings in terms of mechanics.  The length of the active zone implies a starting quake of 7+ strike-slip, followed by the required thrust earthquakes, just as in 1811.

I issue no alerts or recommendations in the 'hot zone'.  Those who are a few hundred kilometres away should secure their breakable knick-knacks with sticky Velcro.  This is just common sense even if the earthquakes are a year away.

As usual, the uncertainties swamp any hope of an accurate prediction.  This is just a word to the wise.

PS - People on the g+ are freaking out.  This is the strongest indication I've ever seen (even in hindsight), but it is still only worth $5.  That's because the uncertainties are overwhelming.  Secure the knick-knacks for $5, that's all I'm saying.

PS2:  This alert closes 48 hours after the last earthquake along this line.  I will shut down again.

PS3:  Still more activity along the line, but it is going down.  Here is the cheapest stuff I could find (on the side).  I just bought some myself to see how it works, but in Canada, only those in High Park and the Beaches need to get it.

PS4:  Nothing is happening and the alert is off.  Perhaps we need a few more episodes like this this to get the motor started.  So, I sign off.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Christmas shutdown

As is usual for me, I'm doing another shut down.  There's not much sunlight this time of year, so I have to struggle to stay cheerful.  I hope everybody has a nice Christmas.

Go and Fund Me Some Wine for more Earthquakes

Every once in a while I need some justification for continuing my rants on earthquakes and other things.  After all, it is tough go against the Winds of Indifference by the Big Guys.  Oklahoma is going to destroy all US oil production and nobody cares.  The Bruce Deep Hole is sinking a shaft on top of a giant fault and everybody ignores it.

I used to get a nice wine income from Google before my readers started clicking all the horrible ads and they banned me for life.

So all you people send me some money via Paypal to ''  I understand you may get $5.00 for sending 50 cents.  For each bottle of wine I get I'll write something new that is beyond my normal compulsion to write.



After 10 minutes, the thermometer stands at zero.

Add2:  Being the greedy pig I am, I have set a target of no more writing on anything until I can put some red on the thermometer.  Simple profit is the best way to judge if you are doing good in the world.  :)

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Not a speck of added power with the Niagara Tunnel


This person prices it as 1.5 billion, but I know it had to be more than that.  They have great capacity to hide costs, and this is why I was always hoping for a change in gov't.  He attributes the flat power output to bottled up transmission, but with the pumped storage capacity maxed out, there can be no increase.  That's why I call it the 'Tunnel to Nowhere".

What's a few billion amongst friends?  Wait until you see that Darlington refurb.  Now, that's money!

Monday, November 16, 2015

The tectonics of Guatemala

To celebrate that I will soon be visiting there, I am digging up various facts.

G. is sliced in half by the upper part of the Caribbean Plate.  For some reason the Pacific Plate plunges much more steeply than in Mexico, but produces more volcanoes.  This makes it less likely for big shallow quakes, which is good for me.  Volcanoes are more easily avoided, unless somebody says "Let's look at that big one that just started up."  I'll just stuff that person in a sack.  :)

Sunday, November 15, 2015

A most directive Oklahoma earthquake - M4.3

This is at the far end of the zone, basically in a new area for the larger earthquakes.  It blasted in one direction only, typical NE.  Some stations recorded it as a 5.4.  I think it is closer to a 5 in terms of energy, so that really puts up the total seismic energy curve.

I never know why the zones are so limited.  I think it's because they don't have a clue about the Precambrian and just drill near where there was success before.  Anyway, they can continue to drill down in the SW direction, I guarantee success!  :)  In the other g+ discussion, I noted that US natural gas prices are up, so we'll have lots of gas frack waste, which is the only thing that counts.  Note that all the recent earthquakes have been on a perfect NE line, following the megathrust.  After all this activity, the fractures will open up some more, allowing full volume.  Oh, they might shut down a well or two right on top of this latest earthquake, but there are other places to go in this big Whack-a-mole game.  :)

Add:  I'm calling this a 5 in terms of strain effect on the system.  We have had 5.5's already, but each one was either very deep, or had the directivity pointed away.  We are well on the curve.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Last megathrust video - Map of Ignorance

I'm done for a while.  The cold may be coming back, and these things don't do me any good.  There is too much chance that nasties will view it.

Add:  Apparently, everybody on Facebook steals videos and claims them as their own.  Have fun!

Megathrust video 2 - Sediments

I cured my cold with my patented sleep cure.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

New video for earthquakes

I'm trying something new, since I'm so ugly.  I'm sketching something on my Linux Inkscape, and then recording a voice-over with Audacity.  I merge it with Openshot.

I should have laid off for now, since I think I'm getting a cold, but what the heck.  I have an old Wacom drawing tablet which works well with Linux.  In fact, anything old works with Linux, including me!

When I emerge from Fluville, then I might do some more.  But that's the trouble with me, once I repeat things, it becomes tedious.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Global temperatures go high

This is the global background microwave level.  It reflects ground temperature, but also represents total heat being radiated out to space, since that is what the sensors are reading.  The two aren't quite the same thing if you include the great insulation of wet clouds.

We are zooming up because of El Nino.  That thing dumps a whole lot of heat outside of the cloud barrier.  That's why temperatures may appear to be rising, but the heat energy is leaving.  We know now that our history of ice ages and such is merely heat flip-flopping from north to south.  El Nino seems to dump heat evenly in both hemispheres, but when the Atlantic current flips, all the heat goes south.

The El Nino backwash is being a bit coy.  It really should have smashed into Central America by now, and drenched old Cali, but it keeps getting beaten back.  I hope it finally decides to go for it.

Oklahoma earthquakes back on track

There was a big flurry of earthquakes yesterday.  They are tracking the northern fault, with compression earthquakes at the end, just like Cushing.  For a while the system appeared to be resting.

Add:  Cushing just had one of its high intensity shallow thrusts.  m3.6

Add2:  Watch this little video.  Look at the crappy state of the oil tanks.  And those berms are a joke.  I had to fix one once.  They are designed by people who can't do math, and have a special valve that is supposed to let out the water, and is made of the rustingnest iron.  :)

Saturday, November 7, 2015

Communications after an earthquake


Just putting in more micro-cells doesn't do much.  After a big earthquake, everybody is just trying to call everybody else, and the whole thing grinds down.  As well, the cell towers lose their power, and only a few have diesel for a couple of hours.

There should be a protocol to prevent panic.  They should design an earthquake app, made for these situations.  After an earthquake, the cell systems should shut down all calls except for the app.  This would also be used for emergency requests, since the 911 phone lines would be clogged anyway.  Broadcasts to the app would be easy.  Each person would have information pre-loaded and they would fill out forms.  The data would get through.

This is something Dr. Lucy should be working on, not that horrible early warning stuff.  But seismologists want their day in the sun, and lots of money.  Oh well......

Friday, November 6, 2015

Another pitch for the Fish Injection Treatment


Texas has closed the book on how a set of wells could turn earthquakes on and off in Azle.  I know they were injecting gas frack waste for a while (in my head).  But they can never admit it.

Let's pretend they were honest, and everybody promised not to sue (Ha!).  Then we would conclusive proof that it is stress corrosion that caused all these New Madrid-type earthquakes.  The cure is simple:  Import a ton of crushed Grenville granitic gneiss and run all the gas frack water through that.  Then mainline right into the Precambrian to your heart's content.

Universities can't even test out the Fish Hypothesis, because a positive result would mean that all their sponsors were lying like VW.  Do corporations do that?  I worked for the old company who would lie until their teeth fell out.  Good thing I forget all the particulars, maybe I was only dreaming about that.  :)

When you are all by yourself it is good to confuse reality and dreams.  That way reporters don't bug you, and nobody tries to give you the Polonium Sandwich.  Without these tests, the only outcome is to stop all injection when the big closer earthquakes hit.

Add:  If SMU weren't stuck in miserable Texas they could get back at the creeps by conducting the simple experiment that I mentioned at some time.  However, as it is, they'd get killed.  :(  since everybody carries an assault rifle.

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

What I want to be when I grow up

Suddenly, someone official was asking me for an opinion.  I feel that there is a 'New Hope' flowing through Ottawa.  I shall look just in front of my nose, and not think about 6 months from now.

I don't do well with stupidity.  My performance reviews always said "Does not work well in a corporate environment.".  I remember being on the committee that was looking at the Y2K issue.  As you remember, everybody thought the world would end when 1999 turned to 2000.  The whole committee was composed of climbers who wanted to advance their careers by hyping this up as much as they could, and then saving the world.  I stated right away that there was no issue.  They threw me out.  :)

I was on a CSA committee that was looking at the seismic issues for a new nuclear plant.  I said that all we needed was a recipe book to assure ourselves that a US plan would be suitable for our site.  They wanted something horrendous that would encompass Canadian-designed plants.  They threw me out.

All the things I did worked, and I worked with people who wanted things to work.  Those were my good times.  My bad times came when nobody really wanted things to work, but just have the appearance of working.  I was terrible at that.

With our 'New Hope' maybe things will work again.  I don't know how involved I can be, since my mind rebels at tediousness.  That's for a new generation.  Reminds me of two guys I met in the Dog Valley that were going to work on the new sewer.  I mentioned that they were starting on the worse section that didn't have enough manholes.  That seemed to surprise them, but it's up to them to be splurted all over with sewage when the supply exceeds their pump capacity.  I'm not there!

Add:  It turned out to be a minor academic matter about some seismic vaults I had installed.  So, the world is safe from me for a while longer.  :)

Sunday, November 1, 2015

The Sargasso comes to the Caribbean

The Caribbean is choked with Sargasso weed.  Don't go there!  This is why, the equatorial currents from Africa are weak for some reason, leading to a big Sargasso playground off Brazil, fed by Amazon farming.

I haven't been looking long, but I think this is unusual.  A strong current would just sweep through.  Could lead to colder temperatures, but for El Nino.  I think we'll have a ton of snow.

Add:  a new map shows El Nino backing off again.  But the Atlantic backwash is getting stronger.  Obviously they are related, perhaps due to wind reversal.

Cars to become the next wave of software and commodity parts


Ken Okuyama is an automobile visionary and he fears that Apple and Google might take over the car industry. I think his fears are well-founded.

They are probably right that it will be the 'connected' software houses that will do this.  All the other companies are like HP or Timex;  their spirits possessed by intricate mechanics.  A fuel cell or battery and electric motors are all you need, and really good software.  Right now Tesla is putting everything into a better battery, but anybody can do that.  Right now I'm buying my rechargeable batteries as generic Amazon.

All the great car companies are following VW into the sewer, they couldn't get a brilliant software guy if their lives depended on it because they are ugly bureaucracies.  And these people in Palo Alto are 10-100 times more valuable than anybody you find in Texas or Detroit.  Tesla is run by a psycho and will soon die.  :)  or he'll go to Mars.

This must be network connected software and Google has the edge on this.  If one car finds something weird like an armadillo, then in an instant every car has the pattern.  Who can keep away spam and hackers.  My neighbour just died with a big Mac security incursion.  Bet they keep that quiet!

But Palo Alto is choked and they can't move anybody out.  Who wants to leave the Android Statues?


This presents a horrible problem for Google and such.  As well, they are so overdue for a monster earthquake.  I suggest that Toronto picks up the ball.  :)

Addition:  Every company with a factory component becomes poisoned.  I know a computer company that is spending time on shaving everybody on everything, like phones and computers.  Soon they'll cut the free coffee.  :)  Death looms.