Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Pacific plumes remain weak


You can see the plumes are just curling back on each other.  However, there is one slashing plume hitting the west coast that will bring up a Gulf plume for a one day warm spell in Toronto.

The Atlantic plumes are spindles and cannot fight the cold blob.

This will be called a 'beast from the east' and will give the UK some snow.

Using game physics, I prefer to call these things giant clashes.  All of this is driven by convection, that great secret which is ignored by the influencers.  

Linux - The day cifs died

 My little zoneminder computer was going great, until the day it became a brick and I had to reinstall.  Apparently, the concept of writing to a samba file was suddenly thrown out the window, and the little root partition totally filled up.

I could not get zoneminder to write to samba, no matter what I tried.  I looked it up and this has happened time and time again with no solution.  Drat, not that again.

Anyway, I converted it all to nfs and it is working again.  Linux is wonderful, except when it isn't.  :)   One day it will be fixed again.  At Linux is so mucked up that there will never be any ransomware attacks.  It's hard enough to get the regular programs to run.  :)

State of the oceans - Nov 30, 2022

 I hate to do this without the ocean current map, but that poor thing has left the building.

We can track ocean currents by the temperature.  In all the times I had information of both, they are always on top of each other.  After the big 2016 swing, both the North Pacific and Gulf Stream currents stopped transferring heat.  They could no longer be seen on this map, as they once were.  The GS gave the UK a fools paradise, in that their surrounding ocean water gave a Carolina climate.

Now they are firmly in line with their latitude, and that gives them Newfoundland weather.  

I believe the Pacific Cold Phase is here to stay.  It keeps getting stronger, but nobody can rate it's energy.  They just make up fancier stories, like how carbon shifted the oceans.

The restoring force for the Cold Phase is running out of cold water from the Antarctic.  Then it will go back to the old pattern.  I wouldn't hold my breath, and to Australia I say "How long can you tread water?"

Cluster of earthquakes in Alberta


Six earthquakes around M5.  It made quite a splash on my email this morning.

You can see the central point is right beside a lot of oil and gas wells.  These are thrust earthquakes, so we have to go with injection.  

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Two big cold blobs


The NA one is forecast to hit Toronto.  They generally underestimate them.  The Europe one is the same as last time, there's a question on how far it can get into the Atlantic plumes.  Might finally give Spain Guy some water.

Monday, November 28, 2022

Ocean plumes turn off


The Pacific plumes have turned off right now.  That means we don't get any dramatic weather for a while.  We just get 'default weather' which is dry and dependent on the latitude.  If we didn't have the wild convection of the ocean plumes, or ocean currents, then we would just have rings of weather on the Earth, like Jupiter.  

In Toronto, there should still be some Gulf plumes coming up, but these look very weak right now.  Without these plumes, Europe would be dry as a bone.  

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Tyrants in Trouble

 There is a short-term advantage in being a tyrant.  You get to eliminate all the fluff and get things done by threatening to kill people.  That's a great motivation.  You get a sense of that with the Canada Emergency Act hearings.  This is really a declaration of war.  You needed it because so many levels of government were being incompetent.  

We normally hear about democracies in trouble and turning into tyrant-lands.  The US almost had that with Trump.  Now, the tyrants are fading fast:  Trump, China, Iran, Russia, Musk, etc.  What are the root causes (physics) of tyrant decline.

The essence of tyrantery is that one man takes central command.  He starts killing anybody with brains, who are a threat.  He does a few great things that would have happened anyway.  He cuts through the huge overhanging mass of stupidity.  Then what?

Russia and China show that people can get depressed and suicidal.  It doesn't work to threaten them with death.  They start suicidal protests.  Russia, China, and Iran are there now.  The Taliban have a while to go.  As well, all the people that enforce death become unstable.  It's a tremendous toll to constantly have to kill people, and they give up.  

Finally, the tyrant himself thinks he is God.  That always results in a giant stupid decision.  Hitler and Napoleon invaded Russia.  Russia invaded Ukraine.  China is locking everyone in prison for Covid.  Iran kills all the women.  Trump doesn't pay taxes.  It all leads to the end.  

West coast cold blob just skims the mountains


The cold blob is quite denser than most of the air, so it can't go over the Rockies.  Cold blobs for the rest of us must start up North, past the end of the mountains.

No other cold blobs can be seen right now.  

Saturday, November 26, 2022

New cold air blob coming for us


Hasn't been any sign of a cold blob for a week now.  Everything is in turmoil.  Now we see a nice one sneaking down the Bering Straight.  

You can tell the strength of a blob by the amount of wind behind it.  In this case, the wind backs up to the North Pole.  It's coming down from far west, so it might not hit Toronto.  We'll see another one soon.

In other news, Australia is saying good-bye to skin cancer, while nude, in the rain.

They used to have hot sun, beaches, and skin cancer.  If the Pacific cold phase stops, then they can have it again, in 20 years, enough to stop all the cancer.

Still not seeing it weaken.  Maybe next year.

Basic physics is cool again


"I could never get bored in her class," reads one of the comments on the egg drop video. In another video about inertia, she can be seen striking the handle of a knife with a mallet, forcing a potato up the blade. A user wrote, "How have I gone 35 years without seeing or knowing this?"

She has revived Mr. Wizard, and is seen by millions of viewers.  The big US research institutions banned physics for political expediency.  Unfortunately, the table tricks required to catch the attention of viewers do not scale to larger things.  Perhaps she could do an audio book?

I hope this is a trend.  Physics and the Scientific Method will become big again as we all freeze.

Friday, November 25, 2022

Toronto real estate down 30% -- but no blood on the floor


I think it was 4 years ago when the Chinese suddenly left the Markham housing market.  My relatives were selling their house, and poof, it was the last one sold at the big price.  I had called an end to the market, like I did in 2007.  

Then Covid, and really bizarre changes in the housing market.  For a while, every 3 bedroom 60's house in the neighbourhood sold for exactly 1.4 million.  I was stunned.  Now we are going over the cliff, but nothing is happening.  I think we'll all have a nice Christmas and see what happens in the Spring.

There should be something happening, but there isn't.  Nobody feels the need to sell into the falling market.  Everybody can hold onto the higher interest rates.  In a normal world, we would expect something like the bitcoin fall, but not here.  

Miserable November

 This is the November weather of my childhood.  Not that nice, warm thing of the last hot cycle.  Taking the dog for a walk, I went around the corner and into the full blast of wet, yucky weather.

All the patterns are changing.  Nothing decisive yet.  The ocean temperatures are still dropping.

We'll be starting the weird double-seasonality of the ocean temperatures.  We'll be going up for S Hemi summer.  Of course, it will be a wet summer for Australia.  I would plant peas in my garden down under.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Polar Vortex Fairies are Back


I love stories, and these are the best.  Next, we'll have the Dancing Jet Stream.  

It's funny that I brought up physics charts, and the warmies are bringing up tons of charts.  They are all rather ridiculous, and it seems that they are just going through a chart closet and bringing out the ones that agree with them.  Next month it will be different ones.

I am happy that they can't tell one chart from another.  It means that useful physics charts will continue to be produced, as they could suddenly support the warmie position.  

The physics is about heat flow.  For some reason, the Earth isn't getting any heat.  That leads to our ice age.  This leads to lots of philosophical fun, but wait until next year!

ps.  the best physics magic story ever:

Lots of earthquakes again in Texas


A bunch, near the M5.3 but these are M5's.  I would generally round out the number because of sparse seismometer coverage.  

You could not have a more isolated site.  I can't see any roads for the injection sites, but this is a huge injection zone.  All the earthquakes that happened in Oklahoma a while ago, are now happening here.

Normally, this would be nothing, but the size of the zone is an M6 or 7, ready to happen.  The next big earthquake will be an M6 - strike/slip, if we are lucky.  You should get 10 M6 earthquakes before one M7.  Oklahoma was up to about 5, and it shut down, due to the price of natgas going to nothing.  We will see about this one.  An M7 will do nothing here, but will be felt for a thousand miles.

ps.  this is exactly like OK where I was always complaining about the bad rock mechanics (physics) of the big wigs.  In the end, it closed down, and this new one opened up.  Nobody learned a thing.  I think it will be like that for clange, everybody will just accept that being a lot colder is just part of it.  No big wig needs to be worried.

Fog of the 60's returns

 One thing about being old is that 'what goes around, comes around.'.  We had such pea-soup fog in the 60's and never had those again.  It could have come from burning coal at Lakeview.  But here it is again!

Nothing much new on this chart.  Looks like there will be a big hit of a Pacific plume on the Arctic cold mass.  This is like breaking in billiards.  You never know where the cold is going to break out.  A few weeks ago, we got the 'Chocolate Fountain' of the air bouncing right back and pouring over NA.  This time, it could be Europe's turn.

A slashing Pacific plume has brought up the Gulf air.  This is a hard mechanism, and it would be fun to do physics on it.  One plume is hitting the Yukon.  In the past, this has always brought down a good clipper, but the last one was more warm than cold.  

In Europe, the Atlantic plumes remain down, giving everybody cold, mixed weather.  Looks like Spain Buddy is finally getting his rain.  

ps.  No rain in Spain.  He's getting a direct hit of a plume, but it keeps it's water for someone else.  He needs a cold blob hitting that plume.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Pacific plumes to be hitting high again


Pacific plumes are going straight north again.  So that gives us another two weeks of blustery cold.  I've taken out my broccoli, because the ground was frozen.  Right now, we have straight-west Pacific breezes which are sunny and cool.  This is the bottom half of the big clipper we saw a few days ago.  Buffalo had the impact of the top half.

The Atlantic plumes are hitting low, so that Europe should be cold, but there is a backwash at the end, bringing up warm air.  There is no sign of a cold blob.

I have no idea why they think something is coming from the East.  However, the UK is just going to be very cold with no plumes hitting it directly.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

How to destroy the Earth in one easy step


That's simple - do this crap.  It's amazing that not one 'Great Solution' has worked for our imaginative Left.  All that's left for them is to tell people to live without heat.

The fundamental problem is that you can't do engineering without physics.  Let's spray sulphur all over the world -- what could go wrong?  Anyway, I won't say anything more.

Google walks in the Valley of Bye-Bye


The number 10,000 is the 'in' thing these days.  Whereas muskie just fires everybody, and Ammie fires the losing devices division, Googs is caught on 'what to do'.  They have gone the bureaucratic route.  

Every low-level bureaucrat is paid by the number of warm bodies under their control.  They pump up the performance ratings willy-nilly.  Nobody is going to say 'They are all losers, and me, too.'.  The old company went through this all the time.

What happens is that all the bright people leave, because they have other options.  The losers go turtle.  Like the old company, Google has a monopoly and high margins.  I wish them luck.


They are raising the spectre of everything going kablooey.  These are all high-margin companies trying to go to lower margins, and higher volumes.  It has never been done in history.  IBM had to sell the PC business, and went into 'services' which is high margin, but their flops caught up with them.  It's like Eatons (high margin department store of my childhood) becoming Costco.  However, just because something is impossible, doesn't mean the group-think goes away.  Fun to watch.

Oceanic plumes are in a tizzy


This is a situation where all patterns are breaking, and we don't have a clue what is going on.  The Pacific plumes are now going around the clock, starting straight North, and whipping around to South.  A new set of plumes is forming, but with no physics -- no idea.

We can still call the Atlantic plumes as being low, so that Europe will be mixed cold.  No big cold blobs have appeared.  All in all, a time to hunker down and wait it out.  Most likely, the Pacific plumes will just do the whole dance over again, but the uncertainties are high.

Monday, November 21, 2022

Pacific plumes move to standard clipper formation


A standard NA clipper is sliced bread with cold peanut butter.  We had a week of the 'chocolate fountain' which was unusual, and poured down swirled air on us.  A clipper is linear, where the Pacific air pulls down Arctic air.  We can expect that to be cold and snowy.  Strong clippers hold back the warm Gulf air.

Over in the Europe, it is still mixed with no clear air blobs.  I haven't really followed Europe air patterns over the decades.  In the past, when the Gulf Steam was a thing, the Gulf plumes hit higher and kept the Arctic ice back.  Now, the plumes are hitting lower, allowing Arctic air.

Can we throw another lump of coal on the fire, Mr. Scrooge?

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Physics of Snow Streamers

 Today, I take a break from irritating the powerful, and look at a wonderful local thing  -- the snow streamer.

This is the radar.  Snow streamers will form a thick line, and then pour down white terror on anybody in that river.  

This is the wind field and you can see that it curves.  Lake Erie snow is making all the way to the East Coast.  What is the physics behind this?  Ha, I fooled you.  I don't do 'explanations' that you can put in a popular book.  There is  no physics these days.

If anybody did do physics, then there are just questions -- Are these rivers the exact same mechanism as the oceanic tropical plumes?  Does it go into a river right at the beginning, or is this forced in order to successfully travel?  These are all wonderful questions that will never be answered.

I remember being in a stationary streamer in London, Ontario.  The rate was more than an inch an hour.  Drive a little way down the road and it was gone.  

ps.  have you noticed that there are no more explanations of the cold using 'Polar Vortex Fairies', and the 'River of the Jet Stream' pushing cold?  It's all La Nina and how it will disappear tomorrow.  

Saturday, November 19, 2022

State of the Oceans - Nov 19, 2022

 Ok, so I'm always waiting for the ocean current report, but they are getting later and later.  I do a video of the currents, but it is so dependent on the distribution of Argo floats.  The big question is 'How strong is the Pacific Cold Phase?'  That is what is controlling the world weather right now.  

I just have this one picture.  All geophysics is shutting down on the Internet.  Those guys with the charts had a good party when we had the warm cycle.  And now, they are stunned and hiding the results.  

I consider all these charts to be 'endangered species'.  Who is going to pay them to go against the group-think?  Yeah, they are dead.

The fun thing is that it is just getting colder and snowier.  I just read an article that all the snow belt lake effect snow is a result of global warming.  They are also saying the same thing for the big ocean current shifts.  My general rule is that when a system is 1000 times more energetic than a smaller system, the smaller system leaves the building.  

Huge currents from the Antarctic are flooding the Pacific equatorial belt.  This is being ignored, and labelled as the tiny little sister 'La Nina'.  However, that's sexist.  She has grown to be a full woman, taking control of her destiny, and whapping big brother El Nino on the head.  

I feel sorry for Australia who now have to live with mushrooms growing in their hair.  They never read my blog or the ashes of Mastodon, so they can just look up at the sky and wonder.


pps.  I now have a solid 8 readers:  

You had 344 users in September, 8 came back in October, which means 3.1% of your users returned to your site.

more:  Whew.  The warmiest of forecasters says it's all over.

The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. We are currently in a La Nina phase, entering its 3rd and final year, which is a rather rare occurrence.

Mastodon - a community of warring city-states

 So it seems joinmastodon removed QOTO from their directory without cause, without contacting us, and without any discussion or due diligence.

Since this is the only way to actually find QOTO for new users if it isnt reversed soon it could mean the end for our wonderful community.

Ha, I knew that as soon as I posted that weather should be physics-based, then this would happen. The Scientific Method has powerful opposition. The point is that anybody can cancel anybody and nobody will know.

I will go back to the blog, where trying to eliminate me is exciting.

**most likely, I am full of myself, but I did worry about noosa and nooa, and I kept asking around what the driving principles were. (blah, one second power failure!) Phew, I'm glad to be writing on-line.

Back to the point, if it can happen, it will happen.

ps. I feel like swiftness destroying ticketsmaster. Nobody can shake my belief!! All my life, if some higher-up did something stupid with no explanation, I made up the absolutely worst reason. They would always come back 'That's not it, at all.'

pps. for the week I was there, I kept asking questions if noosa could destroy the place. I was finally convinced they could and they did. They destroyed all the history of atmospheric chamber tests for the freon-ozone hypothesis. It's just amazing. ...whoops, sorry guys, this is all for my fantasy book about a guy on Mars...

Lake effect snow - not the day to drive to Montreal


I remember many times going to Montreal for a waterpolo tournament.  This type of snow was the worst, because you hit the wilds of granite cliffs, and the snow is horrible.  It always resulted in detours through thick snow where the roads were only kept clear by the thousands of cars jamming down the little highways.  That's the Gananoque zone of white death.

I just hope we don't have the big accidents today.

Pacific Plumes send down Clipper of Frozen Death


Now, this is a Clipper of Frozen Death.  It is being dragged down by the Pacific plume air being diverted down from the NW.  The plume air has the energy.  The clipper is a black hole that sucks the heat from your bones.  Once again, I've never seen this.

ps.  Mimic is working again.  You can see the mechanism of the Clipper of Death.

It's just a big chocolate fountain.  Meanwhile the cold blob in Europe is again moving fast.

Thursday, November 17, 2022

Mastodon posts

 I have come to the conclusion that nobody on Mastodon appreciates my sense of humour, so I have come back here.  Nobody appreciates it in the wider world, but at least I won't know.

ps.  I am still spouting little things on it.

Strong mixed clippers


This Pacific plume pattern is holding and will stay for a month or two.  It is pouring down cold air, which is getting colder.  It is so strong that the clippers are totally mixed.  Normally, a high plume comes down as a linear sandwich, with cold dry air on top, and moist air on the bottom.  It is our prevailing NW wind that shapes trees in Algonquin Park.  

The Europe cold blob has been stopped by Atlantic plumes.  Our cold may make them warmer, as the Atlantic plumes are being herded there directly.

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Texas earthquake - M5.3

 I predicted that they would get bigger and bigger.

This is still an extension earthquake.  I predict the more damaging ones will be at the edge of the cluster and be strike-slip.  Extension earthquakes are weak, and nobody cares about them.

Ocean plumes determine the 1 to 2 month forecast

 Sorry everybody for the Mastodon excursion, but I'm cut off now.  Nobody cares about my 3 readers here, and if they made a stink, it would go up to 6 readers.

MIMIC is showing very weird tropical plumes.  The reasoning behind the physics forecast is that moist air holds 1000 times the heat energy of dry, and water holds 1000 times over air.  That's rough, but you can calculate that yourself (Ha!).

The Pacific plumes are going straight up, like shark fins.  Nobody keeps a history of this stuff, but I've never seen it before.  That means NA is being showered by Arctic air.

At least, noosa got the rocket off.

Europe is being hit by a huge cold air blob.  Might eat a bit into their natgas storage.  The Atlantic plumes are finally running out of steam.

Next article, we confirm the 1 to 5 year forecast, when the ocean current map is out.  The Scientific Method treats a forecast as a hypothesis, and it passes or fails.  The calculated uncertainties swamp any forecast beyond a year or two, because that is the residence time of ocean currents.  The concept of a 50 year hypothesis or forecast is not within the SciMeth.  

Mastodon Seizes Up

 I thought it would take until Christmas, but it's happening on a small scale right now.  Sure, there is traffic flowing, but there are heart attacks.

If I wanted to help ease the flow, I would take a lot of money from failing billionaires and set up a dedicated server.  This would be called an 'instance'.  I would hard-wire it with a fixed ip, and domain name, thus exposing it to the whole internet.  Their security is horrible, like a generic web server.  I would run a secure Linux, but lots of people are probably windozy. 

Then I would open it for people to join.  Most of these instances have a theme, to make the creator happy.  Lots of traffic stays on the server, but a lot transfers out to other servers.  The traffic would be high and probably can't run on a home line.  Beezos can let me have an ammie server.  :)

But now I have to ensure good behaviour in the neighbourhood.  That's the main cost, that of time.  The consequences of being a Poots is that everybody cuts you off.  This is the true 'cancel culture', and 'small town terrorism'.  There is no hope for an instance dedicated to Atmospheric Physics.  In fact, I think my posts are being complained about by the biddies with the telescopes (yeah, Monty!).

Thus, the whole thing can instantly convert to feudalism, and warring city-states.  Hopefully not, but a huge influx of musky refugees will put strain on the system.  My blog here is never read and nobody cares, so I will probably be back soon.

I'll be expecting the engine oil to be thrown at me soon.  :)

ps.  that was a hiccup, but I think the system is straining.

Mastodon posts - Nov 16, 2022

 Here are the new posts.  I'll be doing the full 'state of the oceans' article here when the new ocean currents plot comes out.  Everything depends on how the Pacific Cold Phase is doing.  It is now so far beyond the classic La Nina.

ps.  they are not clearing the posts today on Mastodon.  The moderators are swamped.  I expect the whole thing will seize up soon.