The Summer without a Year

 Of course, the standard version is mixed around a bit for the title.  However, I was frozen out of the cottage today, on the July long weekend.  

I'll admit I was wrong again.  I knew we were in for some cold times, but I thought we could have a 70's summer, which is a month or two with stagnant air.  If we have clear, dry air, and the sun overhead, then it is hot, greenhouse glass raining down on us, or not.

But, no.  We have to get 'air glaciers' pouring down on us.  This is true glaciation, but with cold air.  I have never seen this so powerful in the summer.  Can't wait for the winter!

I hate to put my Stamp of Doom on it, but it looks like this is it, for our summer, hence the title.  That's because we never remember a miserable summer.  And the warmies, who predicted 'super hot' are all in hiding.

ps. and our first tiny hurricane.  I wish they would separate total energy and intensity.  It would be nice for world weather.

ps. Ha, Ha.  Somebody organized a big pool party up the road, as I walked by the place with the dog, and my full winters on.  Lots of laughter and splashing could be heard -- NOT!

Cold cottage conniption

 Blah, cold and rainy. 

The official world chart is diving into the muck of cold. 

Cottagey report

 

Nice and cool. Getting down to 12c tonight. 

Ps cool and pleasant. A big Arctic Bob has come down. 

Ps 6 tonight 

Sweeps of cold air continue to dominate the weather

 

I'm sure there's a heat wave hiding in there somewhere.  

Toronto celebrates on having no concern at all about earthquakes

 

I love this, but sadly will not be built this decade.  There is no money for new housing in the city, even though we get wacky proposals every other week.

This, of course, is the total tribute to the wrong physics of earthquake engineering.  They expect a nice, gentle pendulum wag, like a metronome.  Not good for fish tanks in the building, but they expect it to stand.  It's like that bridge between towers, shaving the codes to within an inch of their lives.

Real earthquakes have a punch to them, they call it 'fling'.  This will bend over and shoot people out like a catapult.  Well, it will never be built, and we can go on to the next thing.

ps the Toronto housing market is a dead man walking, or a zombie market.  The only real facts we have is that any house actually sold goes for 50% off.  All the rest is flim-flam, kept up by the banks and gov't, and the usual media.  This is just like Japan, and will take years to finally wallow in big ditch.

Calgary plans for a big blow-up

 

I just loved the ad for fireworks on top of the big announcement that they closed up.  Here is the fun of never investigating the physics mechanism of the rupture.  I have noted that this is our standard '70's concrete' problem.  They can't test the outside of the pipe elsewhere.  They can only try to test for broken rebar.  However, with a failure, that rebar is broken really quick.

So, all along the pipe, we have damage from road salt on that road.  That's 70's concrete.  One Chlorine atom gets through the outer concrete, and it hits the high-stress steel.  That expands due to rust, and further cracks the concrete.  Then it goes nuts. (exponential)

It's a good chance that there will be another 'explosion' soon, for the fireworks.  Maybe a year, and there is no warning, nor any possible testing.  Neat.  Like the Ontario bridges, they are going to have to replace that pipe.  Of course, I'm usually wrong on these things.  Let's forget this, and have an influencer party!

Great Red Spot of the Western Pacific completely gone now

 

At this time last year, an amazing heating event took place in the west Pacific.  This was completely ignored by everybody, except me.  Nooa was all going on about the phoney El No-no.  Now, we can say this hot water spot is gone.

The world temperatures are diving, and you can see the effect of the heating event from last year.

There is no more feed from the equatorial current, since all the action has moved to the north.  Nooa must keep the myth of El Nino going a bit longer, so they can't 'declare' La Nina yet, because that would look silly.  You can see how cold the equatorial current is in the east.

Our world temperatures will now dive below the red line of last year.  I don't think I want to talk about the implications.  So, for now, let us all indulge in the fantasy of warmth.

Dime a Dozen Machine Guns

 

Quite a while ago, I predicted that things in the States would 'progress' to having machine guns sold in vending machines.  Since you are in danger of tripping over Glocks in the street these days, having a piece of plastic turning it into a machine gun is equivalent.

This is the great experiment of letting everyone carry a machine gun.  The trumpies defend the pistol, and they will never have any gun control.  The US will continue to circle the wagons, and try to have bedroom communities closed off from the working poor.  

No limits to MS hacks

 

I'm pretty sure they all use outylook.  Every day, someone points out a new security thing.  Of course, these hacks have been active for months, since there is no means to stop anybody, once they have broken the thin blue line.

This stuff will be interesting to read.  Obviously, nobody cares about these break-ins.  The big bosses just shrug their shoulders, and say, 'not my job'.  MS is a 'Grand Stupidity', but I can't figure out if it is the worst, among so many.  

This is a pretty-big stupidity.  No wonder, the gov't and banks are propping up the market, like Japan once did.  Hint:  It doesn't work.

ps and we have Bonging -- the MS of aircraft.

Giant weather satellite to be launched

 Reference

This is a good read, and they'll be able to properly measure convection.  But they won't.  A year or two ago, these guys sent a balloon to test some of these instruments, and they aimed up, instead of down. That was to avoid some obvious things.

This instrument will also be 'sheltered' from the nasty physics world.  They aren't measuring any physics, they are just going with the convectional 'patterns'.  

And so, we will continue on, always being told it is warmer, while it is colder.  I am proud of these guys, for making lots of money doing this.  

I'm sure that we now have the record for the steepest, longest dive in the tropical record.  Will it continue right through?  I still think we have a satellite calibration drift, because we haven't back to first principles in a long time.  This needs a physics audit!

Arctic cold reverses Toronto heat wave

 

This is just going to give cooler weather.  A nice summer would have more Pacific air coming over the mountains.  Instead the west coast is very cold.

Our big hot plume in Toronto is finally hitting the UK.  Lots of cold behind it.

LOST IN SPAAACE!

 

Ha, this was a spaceship designed by a bureaucracy, that killed whistlers.  

The other alternative is a wacky nut job.  However, they were allowed to blow things up, and came out better.  I predict that muskie will have to uber these guys down, at surge pricing.  

I still think he has reached a scaling limit with his monster starship.  We'll will have to wait if he can load anything in it.

Calgary pipe - the legacy of 70's concrete

 I lived through a lot of this, and I looked it up as an engineer doing tunnels and such.  The same issue that hit Calgary, has been hitting northern bridges.  I have a feeling they will have to replace the whole water main, and that this repair will only last a few months before another section goes.

In the 60's we built with a lot of concrete and little steel.  You still see a few of those bridges on the 401.  Then in the 70's there was a huge push for more modern concrete.  It was a great time for the civil engineering labs in the universities.  In the lab, they found they could get away with more pre-stressed steel, and less concrete.

Unfortunately, they were wrong.  Less concrete meant 'less cover' on the steel.  With the road salt on the bridges, the concrete let the salt attack the steel.  Then the rust expanded and cracked the concrete more.  The northern US had bridge collapses, and Canadians decided to replace all those bridges.

We now use steel that is coated with epoxy.  Very careful installation to make sure all the chips are fixed.  This steel, embedded in concrete, can last a very long time.

70's concrete was also horrible in earthquakes because the joints had the strength, but not the stiffness.  They tend to pancake.

All those 70's concrete pipes will now have to be replaced.  I hope they are all only in Alberta...

Climate philosophers forced to stumble into physics

 Reference

This is a hoot.  Apparently, ignorant people have been spraying all over the place.  Now, other similar people are attempting to stop it, using a weird sort of influencer physics.

Counterintuitively, the more distant operation had the greater impact because it tapped into “teleconnections”, links in the climate system between geographically remote parts of the world.

Yes, children, we have 'dimension portals' working in the atmosphere.  This is as close as they can get mentioning a 'mechanism'.  They could not mention violent convection, and 3d wind systems.  Because that would negate the whole fantasy.  

The Canadian weather service has a new 'clime-o-matic' machine, that answers your questions:

Why is it so hot?  -- Climate Change

Why is it so cold?  -- Climate Change

Why is it so wet?  -- C---- C---

Why is it so dry? -- Damn Aussies spraying sea salt

ps. and in fun news, Oz is not only spreading salt, but may break away from the stifling 'consensus'.  If only they were smart enough to do a little physics....

ps. now I get it, this is US protectionism -- neat.

ps. Mama, don't put your money into fusion

I while ago, I put up a severe physics problem with fusion, and nobody is addressing it.  You need a lot of brilliance to get by this, and I don't see anything out there.

Guess next year's weather

 This is a fun game.  So far, the 'climate scientists' have batted zero.  But that doesn't matter to them, people will believe them anyway.  Nobody goes over their record.  

We had a real mild winter, but it was not forecast.  Then they have predicted that this summer would be very warm, and it's not.  They can't predict those one-day heat waves either.  If something happens, then they have a million excuses lined up, mainly involving the capricious Jet Stream.

So, here we have the world dailies.  Last year at this time, the Great Red Spot started and warmed up the Earth.  We can see it leaving the crowd.  I saw the mechanism for this, and it is not happening this year.  We will dive well below last year, and it is a question on how deep.

All our heat comes from the tropics, except for July.  The tropics are going to dive hard below last year.

Last year, all sectors started to rise in July.  It all came from that one heating event, which was on the other side of the Pacific from El Nino.  That El No-no was a phoney event caused by a thin layer of hot water, and did nothing for the world.

I think the pendulum will swing back greater than before, so we will start to notice a very cold year.  Don't get rid of your natgas yet.  I am generally right on these predictions, and I mention it, if I am a loser.  Don't expect anything from the warmies.

Actually, once again I'll mention that I was a total loser for last year.  Who could have foreseen this huge heating event?  It was magnificent how a giant section of the West Pacific suddenly reversed with absolute uniformity.  In another world, I would expect to see a paper on it.

Cottage report

 We are ending the heat wave at the cottage.  The air was dead, and the lake was calm.  So muggy.  Now it's all rain.  I am hoping the lake allows a tiny bit of swimming.

ps. we are being driven out by cold rain, which will last for days.

Toronto heat wave washes out

 

Yeah.  Not so hot now.  All the tropical plumes are losing out to cold air.

The world temps have hooked down again.  I was expecting this, since I couldn't see any warming in the ocean.

UK to celebrate a possible 2 days of warmth

 

That's a tabloid forecast, but it has been the same for quite a while now.

The world is cold, but there is a weird uplift in the world temperatures.  I can't see any reason for it, so I expect it to go down soon. 

The plumes are still sickly, and have no energy to get up north.  The Toronto heatwave is being chased out by a cold plume.

This is Europe, and it would be hard to get an accurate forecast out of this chaotic mess.  Nevertheless, they keep trying.

ps.  I was encouraged to write because of a huge AI pulse in blog hits.  That is going back to zero, and I can relax in the heat again.

ps.  but the warmies are still making money.  Wish I could do that.

ps.

Depression is weird

 Reference

Once again, a simple internet myth is busted.  Brain serotonin was supposed to keep you happy.  I can feel changes in my brain as I get depressed, and take the pills.  But it doesn't work like a gas tank of happiness.  I don't fill up with serotonin when I take the pills.

Instead, it is way more complex and it is just a function of making the brain work better.  It is exactly the same input and the same results.  However, it is a great philosophical point.

So, now, when I don't want to do something, I can't blame my serotonin levels.  Instead, I will say my brain isn't connected together, today.  Happens all the time.

Temperature basic physics - Part 2

 I got into the weather thing because all the earthquakes in the world just stopped.  I was really into that, but the basic physics of world temperature and earthquakes is exactly the same.  All involve 'total energy' versus point measurements.

Temperature is a point measurement that has no place in physics, the same with earthquake 'peak acceleration'.  Point measurements are implied to have significance on 'effect', but can be 'fooled' by a smaller and smaller volume.  For example, the sparks off a sparkler are at 1000 degrees, but they don't burn you, because they have an infinitely small volume.  Thus, the total energy is near zero.

The popular implication of 'world temperatures' is that they mean something about effect, like 'baking to death'.  The association can only be established with experience, like taking a temperature for a fever.  It is known that you are taking a uniform temperature of the whole body, and it identifies that.  If you drank a hot coffee just before sticking it under your tongue, then it is fooled.

Since 2016, our ocean currents have gone 'chaotic'.  The old associations and calibrations are gone.  The ocean temperatures are getting 'fooled' by increasingly thinner sections.  Water can get very hot, and then it just stays on the surface.  The ocean currents can zoom this thin layer all over the place.

This recent warm spell looks significant, but it has no effect, except for 'heat waves' on the popular media.  Or fires,  or whatever.  It hasn't changed Antarctic temperatures at all, and now the Arctic ice is coming back full volume.  The old 'Dark Ages' warming spell had oats being grown in Iceland and the tip of Scotland.  Can't do that today.  A trip to Iceland shows just grass for ponies, that become hamburgers.

The 'wobble' on the world temperatures, is just that.

I just noticed it today.  However, all the other charts don't show it.  Of interest, is the tropics chart, which is plunging like a rock.

It is now at the point for last year, before the Great Red Spot heated everything up, at least on the satellite charts.

This is the Arctic temperature.  It had showed the recent heating event, but now it is as cold as always.

With popular debate, and the legal system, you choose your charts.  In physics, you have to look for 'effect' to determine 'heat energy' which is the only thing of importance to physics.  Not temperature.

All the physics points to the 'partial El Ninos' being done and gone.  We've had quite a few, each a smaller fraction than the one before.  This is like 'reverberation' decay.  Neat.

That's it.  We are entering a 'low heat energy cycle' which I call an 'ice cycle'.  It may be a short cycle, of decades, or the long cycle of centuries.  The last 'Little Ice Age' was a long cycle, and we may be entering one.  It was only measured by 'effects' like skating on the Dutch canals, and the freezing up of the whaling ports up north.  No satellites then.

In summary, I think we have been fooled by the satellites, even though I was a big fan of them.  They are showing a long drift which is caused by chaotic ocean currents.  No satellite weather person pays any attention to ocean currents, which I think are the main driver of heat transport around the world.  We will go into an ice cycle of some sort, while the 'cool kids' keep droning on that we are heating up.  I always like that, and it involves 'no boundaries' on the super powers of the Jet Stream.  No limits on that.

ps.  Don't get into physics on this!  It causes a lot of pain.  Just join the bobble-heads and nod.  I'll go back into heat hibernation.

Another slight wobble in world temperatures - the basic physics explained - Part 1

 Okay, that crazy guy has gone into air conditioning, so he has settled out.  Today, we do our annual review on what is happening in the world, according to the Scientific Method, and the Laws of Physics.  None of this has anything to do with Influencer Science, which is just stories, acclaimed by popularity.

This whole clange thing started when we had two major temperature cycles combining.  The short cycle happens over decades, and the last cold period was the 70-80's.  That was the last time we had good blueberries at the cottage.

You can see these cycles perfectly with the one tide gauge in the world not rising or sinking.  Every one of these cycles in the past has some history associated with it.

Then we came into a much larger cycle, and this was determined, by popularity, to be 'not normal'.  The temperatures follow a binomial theorem, where 'excursions' are normal, but always denied.

It is exciting that the main 'rise' in world temperatures is associated with the modern satellite era, and nothing else.  That temperature is falling now, but I expect it to remain high.  I suspect it has more to do with the satellite record being very susceptible to 'low energy' events, such as very shallow hot water, spread by ocean currents.

On other charts, we see distinct peaks of temperature.  

While writing this, I am stunned that RSS updated their plot.

These peaks come out clearer than the nooa plot.  The last peak is huge, but is collapsing.  Every one of these 'post 1997' peaks has been associated with a big ocean current event.  The big one was a total reversal of current, showing the classic 'El Nino' effect.  Since then, we have been getting smaller and smaller 'reversals', each showing a peak.  The final one was last year, and had a huge effect.  It was not the 'official' El Nino, which was just a shallow current, and totally fooled the weather people.

- to be continued

A single hot day is more important than anything

 OMG, was it hot at the cottage!  The water is still ice cold, so it is painful to cool down.  We finally gave up and went home.  Air conditioning!  Dang car has a weakened air conditioner, and I'll pay the big bucks to fix it.

At the cottage, the falcons have 4 chicks again, and they moved back to the old nest.  To sleep in the hot tin shed, you would have to cool in the lake for a while, and it can't be done yet.

Yes, I renounce all the Laws of Physics, they are not as important as the sweat running down into my eyes.  I look up and see the greenhouse glass forming, and blocking in the heat.  The Trickster God Jet Stream laughs at me as it brings in the heat, and the cold in other areas -- whatever he feels like.

**that was a crazy guy who got too hot.  For those with a cooler outlook on life, the laws of physics are doing quite well, and the world has a minimum of heat energy.  

It's quite a wild fight against the cold, but this is the only active plume for heat.

The cold areas deserve some respect, as well.

GO AWAY, VOICE OF REASON, I AM HOT!!

Done for the summer

 We finally have heat for Toronto, but just don't look at that cold blob coming down.  All the global charts have shed off last year's Great Red Spot, and nooa has adopted it to stand in for El Nino.

I am done for now.  I am tired of being right.  Time for relaxation on the dock.  

Ps at the lake and warm weather. Nice. Calgary should admit a huge engineering failure. All tendons in the pipe broken. 

Antarctica the same since 1937

 

Ha, nothing has happened since 1937.  However, the authors state that 'something could happen' just to keep the violent warmies off their backs.

And this guy goes back to 1940.  We greatly enjoy all the stories about how it is going to melt and kill us all.

Arctic air breaking up for now

 

Yeah, warm weather for the weekend!

What you don't want to look at, is the new bulge on top.  This is how they all start.  

The UK will get warmer if that giant plume can break through the cold.  The Arctic flow is still going.

Chasing the wild dishwasher

 As soon as a dishwasher gives me trouble, I go out to Costco and load up another.  They are impossible to repair without paying the cost of a new one.  My last one was a Chinese Fridgydare.  They always assume an old brand.  Yesterday, it blew up, shattering the valve and pouring Niagara Falls all over the kitchen and basement.  That's the trouble with the Chinese stuff, they are known to use cheap plastic.

This happened 20 years ago when house builders got the cheap toilet hoses.  They would explode and destroy a new house.  Then I bought a cheap kitchen tap and it started to explode, but I got to it on time.  Finally, we have the dishwasher.

Off to Costco to find 3 different dishwashers ready to do.  One was $300 and a no-name Chinese brand.  I was going for that, but the wife nixed it because of an ugly white front.  We got the Samsung at $800 and forgot about the Bosch at $1000.

Anyway, you need an installation kit from Homedepot, and I put in a new sharkbite tap.  The old stuff was 40 years old.  The new machine is much quieter, and has a million new options that I can only stare at.  No idea what they are.

But that's a lot of work all of a sudden, and I'm glad it's over.

The gift that keeps on giving

 

Brought to you by the people who gave you Climate Change

ps. the cap is military-grade black nylon.  You would need tin snips to cut it.