Saturday, April 13, 2024

No Spring pattern yet for us

 


We'll just be getting our 'up and down' pattern, with slashing plumes.  This involves the Gulf air incursions and brutal Arctic spills.  I put the tomatoes back under the lights.



This is what I predicted from the lack of heat energy in the world, but I was derailed by a huge oscillation of the hot zone in the Pacific.  That gave us a monster plume after the January Arctic spill.

Those oscillations may have settled now.


We don't really know, but we can blame La Nina, instead of the old 'God's Will', which is so yesterday with influencer space.

Dog Walk Report:  Very cold with sleet.  I had on my full winters, and we turned back.

ps.  a nice spring pattern is a pure westerly wind from the Pacific right over the mountains.


Friday, April 12, 2024

Phoney El Nino will transition to Phantom La Nina

 



It's amazing how much fun you can have when you control all the information.  We have the official end to El Nino, and the start of the new La Nina.  Of course, when you look outside the institutions you don't see any evidence of any of this existing.  That's the trouble with the Scientific Method, when people rant and rave about something, you can't prove a negative.

So, we get colder, and they will say that La Nina is dominating, when it never has before.  La Nina was always the 'rebound' of El Nino, and only lasted a few months.  Now, all that stuff with the regular cycles is gone.  

These institutions have also stopped all new physics in this area.  They can't live with a discovery that would blow all this out of the water.  We wait, and we laugh.


Arctic spills still hitting Toronto

 


This is a classic Arctic spill, but only going down to 4C in Toronto.  This is the mechanism of a long, cold Spring.  


The Arctic is breaking up, but Greenland left the headlights on.  Our flashing heat zone in the Pacific is flashing off again.


And the Arctic may go below average again.


Thursday, April 11, 2024

State of the Oceans - April 11, 2024 - Oscillations solved

 We are getting some major oscillations on the dailies.


If you are very lucky, like nooa, you catch the monthlies on the peaks.  That way you can have a party.  These oscillations were driving me nuts, but now I have solved it, sufficient for me.  Obviously, it's only for my handful of readers.


The Big Pacific Warm Patch has been turning off and on like a hazard light.


This is caused by a little return current that goes off and on.  I am sure that if somebody wanted to actually work, then you could check this out.  But it is the only thing that has sufficient heat energy to affect the world.  This patch was responsible for the year-long warm spike.

ps. and today's art - Ocean Heat Oscillatios


ps and this goes on my list of 'brilliant thoughts' which I always forget.

One last Arctic swoop down

 




I've planted the broccoli.  But kept some in reserve.  The Arctic is probably in retreat.


All the temperatures are now in a dip.  The Arctic is back to the previous lines.  Enjoy these graphs while you can, they may soon be illegal.

ps.  I heard they are bringing back the 1864 law -- Heresy against scientific inference.  It was last used to defend phrenology.  


Wednesday, April 10, 2024

World continues tremendous temperature oscillations

 In the stock market, this is known as 'A time of volatility'.  Our temperatures are going up and down, and I don't see a reason.


Two things stand out here.  One is the giant heat blob south of the equator in the Pacific, and the other is the new heat in the Atlantic.  A while ago, the Atlantic belt was as cold as the Pacific.  

All outflows from the Arctic have stopped, and it actually looks like it could be recharging again.  I hope not.  You will note that I'm not saying much, since the courts are putting 'climate deniers' in jail....


Tuesday, April 9, 2024

US monthly temps not so great

 


No great headlines here.  The worlds should be better for them, because of the wild oscillation and they have the luck to always catch it on the peak.


The polar ice continues its long, hard slog to greatness, totally ignored by all.

ps.  they will be very happy with the worlds



Monday, April 8, 2024

Enjoying the eclipse in Toronto

 


The cloud band passed - Take that you Montrealers!  I'm not an ambitious man.  I'll take a partial eclipse and a Scotch any day.


Saw first ten minutes, then this. 

Big storm lies perfectly on eclipse path

 


Tomorrow, everybody is bringing back their eclipse glasses for a refund.  However, the rain might make them soggy.

And today's art is 'Solar eclipse in a rain storm'


ps so, the advice today is to forget Niagara and everybody get in their car and zoom to Montreal, ahead of the storm.  What could go wrong?

Whoops - Come back!  The cloud band may go over Toronto, and hit Montreal for the eclipse...


Sunday, April 7, 2024

Taiwan earthquake explanations - Part 4

continuing from previous 

Time to sum up and include some extras.

First, the California Hypothesis has been very useful in stopping buildings pancaking.  Tying everything together is like turning a building into a ship.  

That said, the failure of the hypothesis has caused all sorts of problems.  I can confidently say:

All modern buildings have this fatal flaw of failure at 40 cm/s

I will attacked by influencers who use False Logic #14 - Spitting Hairs.  Wouldn't it be neat if those 'Fact Checking' sites did the 'Top 20' of false logic as well.  And in court:  "Your honour, objection due to False Logic #12.  Sustained."  It would change the world.

Anyway, my assertion is not a hypothesis, which is terrible for me.  But, I'll do it anyway, just for attention.  "Your honour, he has declared a scientific fact without the Scientific Method."

I have picked 40 cm/s because we have a lot of experience with it.  All buildings should ride this out without damage.  At over 100 cm/s, like Turkey, we can forget it, the people would be dashed around like a baby's rattle.  All dead.

This concludes the series.

If there are any questions, I'll ignore them.

ps.  whoops the art!



Fall of the Glasses

or People who live in glass houses, shouldn't have earthquakes

Taiwan earthquake explanations - Part 3

 Continued from previous article


As seen, when a hypothesis cannot fail due to legal or political reasons, it becomes a religion.  In the good old days, engineers embraced the failure of a hypothesis because it was a learning experience.  Now, everything is embedded into the fabric of an institution's existence.


We shall start the next section with a wonderful champagne fountain.  Our bride&groom 'zillas' insist on one, and the wedding planner goes into conniption fits because that family has tons of notorious drunks.  She enlists the help of a California earthquake engineer, and they tie all the glasses together with crazy glue, including gluing to the table.

This is tested by gently rocking the table until the fountain starts to resonate at its 'fundamental mode' which is the whole tower swinging.  The glasses stay together, and it is declared fit for service.  This is design by peak acceleration, and resonance.  

Everything is fine until drunk Uncle Ralph gives the table a body check.  This is a huge velocity pulse, as measured by the seismic accelerometer on the table, and accelerometer chips on the tower.  During the hit, most of tower remains perfectly still, in relation to the room, but all the lower stems break.  We have 'Seismic Fling'.  

 Yes Virginia, Twas velocity that killed the beast.

- to be continued


Taiwan earthquake explanations - Part 2

 Continued from this article.

That article had other muck in it.  This continues with the explanation of terms.




The Taiwan earthquake is being pushed by influencers as a great success, when in fact it was a total engineering failure, much like that US bridge collapse.  I'm being obscure, so as to not attract nasty influencers, as if they read anything.

The buildings were designed for peak acceleration, whereas the failure was peak velocity.


This was 'seismic fling', as explained by many papers.  The papers seem hung up on a permanent displacement, but the main characteristic is a velocity pulse.  

A long time ago, all earthquake engineering started with California, since they were the first to record strong ground motion.  At the time, all their damaging earthquakes were on deep soft soil basins, so their world view was contaminated by this.

They effectively set up a hypothesis, which became a religion, and the base of their existence. ---

All damaging earthquakes in the world are a result of deep soil motions, and are scaled by peak acceleration, and the mechanism of damage is seismic resonance.

That means you design for resonance (response spectrum) and the scaling factor is peak acceleration.  Thus, the rise of shake tables.

- to be continued


Saturday, April 6, 2024

New Jersey aftershocks slide down the usual curve

 


We've now had 2 M3's.  I'm amazed they could detect them.  Everything is fine, except they should have been on top of each other.  That's the fun of having poor seismic monitoring coverage.  This earthquake will fade, and nobody will think of earthquakes until the next one.


Big weather mess coming up for eclipse

 


Blah, I was looking forward to being cute with my eclipse glasses.  Still, a million to one hope.


Antarctic brings world to disaster - not!

 


Been there, done that.  The Antarctic had a little bump in temperature, but now it's fine.


But, they are talking about a one-day bump in 2022.  I can't find it.  Anyway, makes for a good doomer headline.


The Fantasy of a Rational World -- Part 1

 It is ironic that the biggest fantasy of all is the hope of a rational world, running on the Scientific Method.  We will never get there, but perhaps a few sparks are possible.

The main hurdle is that nobody makes any money on rationality.  

Think of the wonderful things --

We could build nuclear plants that work, and are cost-effective.

We would have good long-range weather forecasts.

Our cars would be methanol fuel cells with super-capacitors.

No more damage to structures at 40 cm/s.

Since this is officially 'Eclipse and Earthquake Week', I am obligated to go more rational on earthquakes, since I already did the eclipse.  I have left one of my readers behind.

Earthquakes -- you will notice that the Taiwan earthquake had a heck of a lot of tilted buildings.  This is not rational to have a building totally undamaged, yet tilting at 45 degrees.  This is not safer than a cracked-up building staying level.  Think of what a Grand Piano would do here!

This irrationality of tilted buildings showed up in the Chile earthquake, and it should have been a call to reconcile earthquake engineering with physics, but that is not the case.  The tilted buildings are a result of 'Shake Table Mania'.


All the 'sexiness' is in having the 'biggest' shake table.


I know, I want to play with those shake tables myself, but we now have evidence that it is all wrong.

I did this a long time ago, when I still had a brain.  The key was to figure out real and rational ground motions, rather than the assumptions from influencers.  There was a huge disconnect between the ground motion physics and the engineering.  Billions of dollars have been wasted, but it pales in comparison to the trillions wasted on clange.

Next episode, we will talk about rational earthquake engineering.

-- to be continued, my brain juice is empty.

ps here's where having almost no readers is beneficial.  The influencers must defend themselves, but it would be counter-productive to make me more popular by attacking.  I huddle safely under my rock.


Friday, April 5, 2024

Aftershock to New Jersey earthquake

 


This is interesting, but due to very poor seismic coverage, the locations are way off.  You would get a better idea by finding if anyone heard explosive sounds.  That's always right on top of the epicentre.  We can expect a few aftershocks, but eastern earthquakes are almost never foreshocks.  If an M6 wants to happen, it happens by itself.

Maybe another M3 as an aftershock, but that won't go on the seismic network.

For something really interesting, we need an M6 right under NYC.  

ps.  light damage from the earthquake, probably shifting the epicentre.  All press comments coming from the us-gus, so all the local mom&pop operations are dead.  Nobody does this any more.

ps so, we would put up the pgv to 1 cm/s


East Coast Earthquakes - a fun summary

 We have actually had a good earthquake in a population zone.  So far, all eastern earthquakes (in the past 100 years) have been in pockets of nowhere.  This resulted in no pennies from heaven for studying these things.


There we have it - the east coast - dead as a dodo bird, so they think.

This is a passive margin, the Atlantic Ocean is spreading where you see all those cracks.  The East Coast is sinking.  Crazy people are calling that the 'rise of sea level'.  Sheesh.

It was very active in historic times, and now it isn't.  Is that a good thing?  No, the sinking of the coast is a wobbly curve like all things, but it isn't measured in great detail.  It goes faster and slower.  I'm thinking that I would be happy if the rate of sinking increased, and we went back to our old rate of earthquakes.  This new one could be a sign, but it really isn't.

If we get more earthquakes, then it could mean something, or not.

But, the good point is that we have an earthquake near buildings.  There may be lots of unmeasured cracking for the neighbours.  We we went to the near-field of the last earthquake in New Brunswick, the rock was exploding under our feet (royal we).  We should get that now.

These earthquakes are generally 'explosive' because they happen in granite, not mushed-up California rock.  A completely different animal.  That's why I went to Peak Ground Velocity only.  No use measuring peak acceleration here (pga).

The pga in the east is ridiculously high at high frequencies.  That's because pga is not anchored in physics, but is always used by earthquake engineers.  That's like assuming the convective atmosphere is a greenhouse with the glass in.  It really has the glass out.

Now, people will say we don't have to study (or worry about) earthquakes on the east coast.  Pooey I say.  We have 10 times less chance of 40 cm/s (like Taiwan) but will have 10 times more impact (cost and lives) because we don't do anything.  Think of that bridge jammed up like all New York bridges.  Think of the absolutely decrepit NY subway.  Think of all the buildings on the verge of falling down.  That's my life, I always look at these things, and knock myself to sleep with happy pills and my good stuff.

ps.  everything in New Jersey was delayed for inspections.  These are totally useless, except for political rear-covering.  These types of earthquakes are felt at 0.5 mm/s.  You might have a stone fall at 1 cm/s.  Really bad buildings are damaged at 20 cm/s and modern buildings tilt at 40 cm/s.  I put instruments in nuclear plants for the express reason of not closing them at 1 mm/s, but I can't say the effort really worked.  If you know the pgv, then you can figure out the damage.  At 40 cm/s you need instruments in the building to figure out if there is damage.  Needless to say, nobody does this.

ps. OMG, clange caused this earthquake!  Now I can put it all together.  Or maybe it was a response to the trumpy bible.  Who knows?


Earthquake M5 -- New Joisey

 




Yeah, I'm going there next month!  Let the earthquakes rattle!  

What people don't realize with that giant bridge collapse is that earthquakes are a dime a dozen on the East Coast.  We just haven't had them for a while.  Maybe the earthquake fairies are coming back?  Neat, just as I tire of of clange.  That bridge was a classic earthquake collapse, simulated by a ship.

The story of eastern earthquakes is a pathetic one.  This was my job once, looking at the earthquake hazard (and risk) of earthquakes for nuclear plants.  There was once a lot of money, and the us-gus stayed out of the whole area.  That left it open for the mom&pop operators.  Then, there was no money.

That's why this only deserves a single digit rating on magnitude - no coverage.  Especially no strong ground motion.  When we put in Ontario seismic monitoring, I insisted on wide-band coverage, so we would have some good velocities (pgv).

We'll get nothing on this earthquake, and the us-gus still doesn't have a clue about our earthquakes.  That's why I was in such a clash with them on the fracking Okie earthquakes, if an ant can bother an elephant.

Lots of good doomer stories coming with this earthquake.  Everybody wants money.

Don't bother to look for any more posts on this earthquake - no information.


Toronto admits vacant tax disaster

 I said it in my blog, and it happened.  This was ridiculous.



Anyone who was wrongly hit with a late fee for failing to submit details under Toronto’s vacant home tax is being told to ignore the charge as the city grapples with a chaotic rollout.

Even though, technically, I was late, it looks like everybody and their dog was hit by this.  Those darn Chinese hackers!


Weather is a huge mess for eclipse

 


It's a big swirly mess.  The weather is in its 'quivering mass' stage of chaotic motion.  No steady patterns are emerging.  


The Arctic is enjoying record cold, while other regions, such as the tropics, are having a small bump upwards.


If you are staying in Toronto, you won't notice the eclipse anyway.  Pack the car and hope you get close enough to Niagara Falls to enjoy the eclipse in a giant traffic jam.


Thursday, April 4, 2024

Taiwan aces the earthquake

 


I can't find any details, so we'll have to go with that.  They did a great job, la la.  That is always the conclusion when they hide everything.  Taiwan was my hero with their Chi-chi earthquake -- so much information.  This one is closed like Japan's nuclear plants.

Do they do this on purpose?  Is there a security issue with China?  Who knows.  I think they did a terrible job with mass destruction at 40 cm/s.  But I'm the only one in the world.  On the other side of the island, it was only about 20 cm/s, and they go on about their damper system for tall buildings.  Please.

Since the M9 does not want to rip up the rest of the coast, I shall say good-bye to this story.  We didn't learn a thing.  On to the next earthquake!


Misery loves company

 Yeah, today we add snow to our endless rain.


We are in a 'slashing plume' pattern.  This brings up Gulf air, and brings down Arctic air, to collide over Toronto.


Further news is that the Arctic is recharging again.  

It all becomes one big swirly mess.


No good weather need apply.

ps. and today's art - weather dog's breakfast



Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Peak ground velocity of Taiwan earthquake

 


This is the best I can get right now.  The general strong region seems to be 30 to 50 cm/s.  There is some black along the coast, but I don't know if it is real.  Now we need damage photos.  40 cm/s can tilt the buildings.  

ps I simply can't find the velocity charts in their web site mess.  I give up.

Declaring buildings fit for use after earthquake

 This will be Taiwan's greatest problem.  The tilted buildings are obvious, they have to be demolished.  But what about the buildings just outside that zone?  Are you going to let the people back in?  All those tilted buildings look undamaged, and the non-tilted buildings would look better.

This is the big problem with earthquake engineering, which has drifted from physics, through fantasy.  That's because the shake table was 'verified' through a series of assumptions treated as legal facts.  This is exactly the same as clange.  

This earthquake has exactly the same ground motions as Chile, and Christchurch, and nothing has been learned for application.  Nothing will be learned from this earthquake.  The designs for the tilted buildings was perfect for a shake table test.  Too bad that is the wrong physics.

I'll go quiet on this now.  I won't work through the Taiwan numbers, like I did with the others.  The influencers will go on influencing.  There is big money in that, but no money for the Scientific Method.  Sad.


Moderate subduction earthquake hits Taiwan

 


This is the expected 'every day' earthquake for Taiwan, at 'living memory' odds, or about 1 in 100.  



You can see by the underwater geology, that  a 'real' cleaning earthquake of 1 in 500, would rip the whole coast, and would be closer to M9.  This M7ish is in the upper corner, and has all the attributes of a foreshock.  The odds that this is a foreshock are 1 in 100, or the same odds of this earthquake happening in the first place.  This would play out in the next day or so, and then settle to the regional odds.

Taiwan is the world leader in monitoring for pgv, and listening to me (ha, ha).  However, I am guessing from the tilted building that the pgv is 40 cm/sec, and not 80, which would tip the buildings.  This is a Chile earthquake, and Taiwan should have ridden this out, like nothing happened.  Had they listened to me, they would have better foundations.

This is my scenario for Toronto, 40 cm/s, with tilted buildings all over the place.  The floppy condos will crack to pieces.  My brain seems foggy today because of the storm, so I can't dig into their strong ground motion records.  Anyway, the big excitement will be the chance of the M9 with 100 cm/s, and I'll wait for that.

ps.  the odds of 40 cm/s for Toronto are 10 times less, but the consequences are 10 times worse.  Thus, the 'seismic risk' is the same.  This article has become very popular lately.

ps the tendency to 'toss' anything rarer than living memory is what I call a 'handyman special'.  This thought controls all our infrastructure.  It is the reason you have fragile backup power plants, and block walls in nuclear plants.  The loud-mouth influencers will say 'We don't have earthquakes in Toronto' and they dominate everything.  That is why the bridge collapsed, since the odds of a big ship hitting the supports is just beyond 1 in 100.

ps and here is the art for today.