Saturday, June 30, 2012

Elliot Lake gives a glimpse of the future


About 40 hours later, Mr. Green — along with six team members — pulled into the small Northern Ontario town in a specially outfitted fire truck, hauling a trailer packed with lifts, supports, concrete-cutting chainsaws, liquid nitrogen, concrete-cracking explosives and thermite charges.

Barred at the tape because the place was unstable.  That would, of course, apply to any structure that has collapsed from an earthquake.  You will have noticed the sad pattern around the world that all these super-disasters are the 1 in 500 earthquake.  At that level, all the locals go "La La La The big bad wolf can't get us!", and totally ignore the threat.  Shouldn't there be the tiniest bit of action on this?

People wonder how I can tell the future.  It's a simple extrapolation from the past, using human nature.  The GTA earthquake will be an M6+ under the lake.  Is this the 1:500 or is it an M6.5+?  Unlike Oklahoma, the 'Hammer Zone" will be under a dense population on swamp.  Anything that has been "Design Build", under the thumb of the owner, will go --  just like Elliot Lake.  At that point, I hope these crews aren't banned.

Whew - that was bad Karma! (Too Stupid to Live Stuff)  Breathe! I cast out this note and burn it!  I'm stuck at home because the daughter is flying in today.  blah.

Friday, June 29, 2012

RIM pyramid scheme collapses


I'm only writing this because it's like an earthquake.  Also, all negative thoughts like these (about people too stupid to live) are being written and burned, in a bloggish sort of way.

All these wonderful services that rim and apple people enjoy are a pyramid scheme.  That is, they are paid for by new buyers.  As long as buying continues to be exponential, then all is happy.  Just like any pyramid scheme.  The early buyers get the most benefits.

Oh, but what happens when it collapses?  When nobody buys the product?  All the people who have bought their bb's continue to demand free encryption and worldwide networks.  Aren't they in for a surprise!  Their toys will be bbb's  - blackberry bricks!

This will be ugly, and we all know what they should have done.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Pleasant cottage time

Ah, happy thoughts!  Nice weather, catching invasive fish, dumping the dog in the water.

No nasty thoughts - bad!  Like Ontario failing the earthquake test with that shopping mall.  Don't think that shopping malls and cheap condos aren't going to crumble with a tiny earthquake.  Don't think those Texans are too stupid to live....


Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Closing for the summer

Once again I have decided that this blog is not healthy for me.  I'm forever fighting powerful forces, and only Basic Physics comes out and saves me.  This summer I expect the following.

The Bruce Hearings - They will go as they always do, with the Forces acting as religious zealots, sticking to their Book.  The panel will eventually approve it, attaching all sorts of conditions that nobody will police because the panel has made their money and gone fishing.

Earthquakes - There will be one big earthquake that devastates one area that has done nothing for earthquakes because they haven't happened for 500 years.

Injection - I expect to at least have one M5 associated with injection, which nobody will associate with injection, since I won't be here.

Monday, June 18, 2012

Bruce nuclear thing heats up

Since nobody believes me about anything, I'm going into one of my funks.  But for the one or two that don't think I'm insane, there is some interesting reading on the Bruce Deep Disposal Thing.

I'm fascinated to read the first transcript, and listen to all my favourite people in my head (in a Linus manner).

All the public submissions are intensely weird.  The panellists act like lawyers.  I'm really not going to follow this any more, since it is so predictable.  Good-bye.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Science panel disses Geofish


(2) injection for disposal of waste water derived from energy technologies into the subsurface does pose some risk for induced seismicity, but very few events have been documented over the past several decades relative to the large number of disposal wells in operation.

Yes Virginia, there are a huge number of deep disposal wells, and very few earthquakes.  I am mortified!

Forget everything you've read here.  Forget rock mechanics and the fact there are only a very few 'sweet spots' for injection action.  Oky-texy, continue with injection!

And Arkansas, stop fiddling with injection wells and closing them when there are a few earthquakes.  :)

OK and Texas earthquakes

Tex- M3.1   Ok- M2.5

The two hotspots of injection activity give me something to write about.  :)  Ok is extending the boundary fault under the city, and Tex likes to play near the big twin cities.  Unless they are injecting in the city, the Ok earthquake is responding to the regional injection, in accordance with my model.  Tex activity is probably straight injection near the city (Those Texans!).

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Linux: No more need for a media server

My most favourite media server Mediatomb has died from lack of interest.  I tried Serviio for a while, but it's terrible.  Then I realized that there is no more need for media servers.  A media server was required for limited playback devices such as the Playstation3.  It performed the necessary conversions, handled the network, and organized the files.  Now I'm using XBMC for the big set, and a small WDTV live unit for the small room.  They have their own media servers built-in, and can deal with the network directly.

You can use NFS, but every directory has to be exported directly.  This is a big pain in the butt, so I just use the Windows network protocol, using Samba.  Both units deal with this quite nicely.  I now have one Linux computer (very old) that is packed with disks.  I don't run anything fancy on it.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Colorado continues to buzz

A very tiny M2.7, but I know they are injecting like crazy over there.  I have no idea about the rock mechanics here but I assume they can get up to an M5.  Probably very isolated.

Oklahoma earthquakes fire up again

Really, this past lull in earthquakes had me worried.  :)  Did they actually stop injecting?

I'm quite happy that this matches with my rock mechanics model.  For every earthquake in the outer zone, there should be one on the boundary fault under the city.  Of course they don't have to take place at exactly the same time!  Although the outer quakes are diffused and limited to M5 or 6, the main fault has a fractal mechanism to M7.  As I've said, a big earthquake under the city would confirm my fears for Hamilton, which has an identical mechanism.

US courts wade into nuclear waste problem


But the appeals court says: Prove it. The NRC "apparently has no long-term plan other than hoping for a geologic repository," the court ruled in a unanimous decision. Nuclear fuel could stay where it is permanently, the court surmised, so NRC must assess the potential environmental effects of that outcome.

US courts will rule on anything at any time.  That's why they won't get another nuclear plant, and they won't be able to dump nuclear waste in North Dakota.  This ruling attempts to force an assessment of leaving waste in boiling pools and rusty barrels.  Really, they could just come up with a one-liner report, or appeal it to the wazoo.  We only wait and wonder....  :)

Monday, June 11, 2012

End of the line for seismic death trap


The Alberta team was able to produce viable quantities of high-quality technetium-99m using a 19-mega-electron-volt cyclotron, a circular particle accelerator, Sandy McEwan, a researcher with the University of Alberta and medical director with Alberta Health Services’ Cross Cancer Institute in Edmonton, said in a news release.

I hope this really works, and the NRU can be closed early.  Unfortunately we've had news like this before.

Arkansas finds new spots for earthquakes

So, Arkansas isn't really moving into a New-New Madrid as fast as I thought.  Do you think they are really stopping injection when they get earthquakes?  That would really throw me off!  :)  Human rationality aside, I think all these clusters have been injection zones, and they were stopped by aliens.

Now we got a new spot, but it doesn't fit into any pattern.  I guess somebody just threw a hole down there, but I can't see it being a high-flow spot.  Anyway, this whole US injection scene is becoming boring, I think there are some nefarious black helicopters behind it.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Club Med earthquake injures more with panic


I just love this picture!  This was a deep and smallish earthquake.  It gave lessons on "What not to do in an earthquake".  Do not panic and run outside.  Do not jump from your balcony.  In many parts of the world (like Toronto) they do no educate people on the earthquake basics, because to do that admits you might have an earthquake.  And then you might have to do something.

So all you people, be happy!  You will never experience an earthquake.  If one happens, you can't go wrong by jumping out the window!  :)

Ontario waffles on new nuclear


Really, poor people.  What are they going to do with Candu imploding?  There goes my chance for a job.  They will never build new nuclear.  ... sob....

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Cottage Report

So I went alone with the dog for a few days.  This is a great time to pretend to work, and Savour Happiness.  Absolutely no bugs!  The water is painfully frigid, even after warming up in the sauna.

The Incident of the Red Squirrel

I detest red squirrels at the cottage.  Oh, they're so cute and everything, but they'll chew right into your cottage, and make a disaster.  Ask the neighbours!  So I have an agreement with those buggers.  Hang around my place and I'll ping you with my BB gun.  This has worked for many years now.  Sure, someone gets pesky once in a while, and after a few shots I might scare them.  They have an ancient folklore now:  "Watch out for the crazy old man!"

So the other day, I'm sitting on the deck, pondering what work I should be doing, and this red squirrel suddenly appears right beside me.  I give my best snarl, and open my good eye:  "You're going to die, Red Squirrel."  And she stands up on her hind legs, and stares at me two feet away:  "You got any peanuts, Old Man?".  Well, I'd be damned to give her any peanuts, those are for the chipmunks!

So, while she's rifling the deck, I go back to get out the bb gun.  It's been a long time, so I get it out, clean it, oil it, and find the stuff.  Then I get out a little target paper (Damn bullseye!), and practice shooting.  Then I come back, and find the squirrel on the deck.  "Excuse me, but you're supposed to be 30 feet away on a branch.  Too close and I might actually hit you.  What a mess, and a hole in my deck!  I shoo the squirrel away, and look.  Totally disappeared!

The next day a bunch of red squirrels are in the zone.  I carefully get the gun, load it, put on my safety glasses, and put the dog inside.  And then I come out.  No squirrels!

So, when I'm finally having my celebratory beer, the damn squirrel comes up to me.  "Got any peanuts, Old Man?"  This time I didn't get up, but gave a sly smile.  I know I'll get that squirrel one day.  For .... I am ...  The Hunter.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Depressive Pride Day


Be proud to be Depressive!  I am an Intellectual Depressive, and it's better than being your average dummy.  You do pretty well for a while, until you're 40 and then you become an alcoholic or a suicide case.

If you are a brilliant writer or programmer, or what, find something else to do at 40, and take your Cipralex. You are still pretty smart after that, but your brain can't take the brilliant burning any more.  Retire, fish, and write a blog.  That's what I do.  :)

Seriously, don't let pride keep you away from the doctor.  Let Pride take you to the doctor!  Too many people I know have spun down the dark spiral because they refused any help.

All Emails are Public


Late last week, we reluctantly handed over more than 3,000 confidential e-mails to BP, as part of a subpoena from the oil company demanding access to them because of the Deepwater Horizon disaster lawsuit brought by the US government. We are accused of no crimes, nor are we party to the lawsuit. We are two scientists at an academic research institution who responded to requests for help from BP and government officials at a time of crisis.

This is going to make Mainline Science even more incompetent.  Of course, we already know that hackers can have the same effect.  That's why I'm an open book.  :)

Nobody can build a nuclear plant these days


Everything is billions over, and much delayed.

Union Workers

ps.  Remember that it is a dysfunctional management that must be combined with union workers to totally screw things up.  Dysfunctional management with contract workers produces the Niagara tunnel.  :)

New Italian earthquake within cluster


We are working on the assumption that this series is exactly like Christchurch, in that it is a stressed lowland that only goes to town every few hundred years.  At the end of the series we expect the lowland to have sunk, and the highlands to have risen.

So far we have a nearly perfect ellipse, so perhaps the earthquakes will be contained in this episode, much like a tunnel excavated in rock reorganizes the stresses around it (not the Niagara Tunnel!).  The Christchurch sequence proceeded along a line, and I find it difficult to say it is over.

This earthquake is within the 'stress hole', just on the boundary.  It's not signalling much.  Like Christchurch, though, I am really expecting another large earthquake to the west.  Bad things come in threes!  :)

Rome can be destroyed in a day


This is a good article.  Rome is all built on swamp, and they don't have a speck of earthquake planning (just like Toronto!).  The odds are at the usual 1 in 500, which is where all the action is.  Of course, there are a zillion other cities in the exact same boat, but Rome is more interesting.  :)

Sunday, June 3, 2012



"Over 200 employees have fled the company since the sale was announced, representing some of the best, brightest and most experienced workers. They have voted with their feet and yet the company continues to employ labour relations tactics more common to third world countries."

Honest to God, they never had that many bright people working there.  If another 200 could actually find a job elsewhere, then that's the end.  I remember when the old company got rid of all its brightest, and they all went to California.  Our only hope for nuclear is the AP1000, and to poach all the engineers from China when that bubble bursts.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Annual review of Ontario seismicity

It's totally dead in the States right now, so I'll do Ontario.  As we can see, there is still a very hard wall to the seismicity at the megathrust boundary that goes through Hamilton.  This goes on to the southern shore of Lake Erie, although only the lake events seem to be plotted.  I am always amazed that the seismicity is fairly uniform east of Hamilton, right to the next megathrust.  I think this terrane band must be 'crunchier' than the others.  We located a huge basin right at the east end of Lake Erie, and that might be producing the seismicity gap.

The fractal upper limit for most of the zone is probably M6.  The main question is the boundary fault under Hamilton.  Is it more uniform?  Can it produce an M7?  I think the answer will be found in Oklahoma, which has exactly the same band, and same pattern, activated by deep injection.  They are still injecting, Come Hell or High Water, and the boundary zone is right under the city.  They'll most likely get it before Toronto.

As you can see, water is the essential element to earthquake life.  The Grenville Front is only active in Georgian Bay and a bit of Lake Huron.  And we know what they plan for that megathrust right at Bruce!