Wednesday, June 25, 2008
On the nuclear front, I think things will get nasty, so that means I'll run, since I'm a coward. They will continue the waste thing, and the new nuclear without spending a cent on geology, and just running on phony soundbites ("Meets our expectations"). The 'panels' will be stuffed with toadies. They will use ancient arguments for the seismic issue. The CSA standards will be ridiculous.
So, I'm not combing the news from now on. Perhaps we'll have a nice big earthquake in our area, and I'll wake from the dead...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Monday, June 23, 2008
Now that the government has made its big announcement, we expect to have them go to sleep for the next few months. I expect a few more earthquakes this summer, because of the Sumatra earthquake-triggering, but most of them will be remote.
Next week, I start fishing for the rock bass to clear them out around the dock, to make room for my largemouth bass pets. I'm actually going on a few canoe trips, which is amazing for an old guy!
I'm not getting broadband at the cottage, since it is horrendously expensive. Maybe by next year, they will be reasonable, so, for now, I won't be doing any blogging from the cottage, since it is a total nightmare at dial-up speeds!
Friday, June 20, 2008
This picture is great!
The basic idea of the paper is that there is very little room for this type of interslab earthquake, so they are most likely confined to only M7, and deep. Therefore (to me), they are of little consequence.
This picture confirms the very unique conditions for this type of earthquake. That doesn't say anything about the big sucker that is yet to come, but that is more of a tsunami threat, and shouldn't bother reasonably engineered buildings.
Even though this waste thing is the most craziest idea ever, and has every appearance of being a total fiasco, it's not going to leak much. Luckily for us, radioactive particles are darn hard to spread around (unless you have a nuclear air blast!). The lighter particles such as Carbon 14, and Tritium instantly dilute themselves, and the heavy particles such as plutonium just sink.
If I were to design the ultimate dirty dispersal medium, which would be C-14 bucky-balls enclosing a Strontium atom, I would have a tough time. I could pour it right into the pristine water of Lake Huron, and it would spread everywhere, but it would never make it through the St. Clair River. That's because the open sewers, chemical waste and Zebra Mussels would mop everything up, and put it in to the gunky loon shit of the bottom.
I once went in a tiny submarine (on my picture) in Lake Ontario, off the Humber River. The shit-snow was incredibly heavy, so that you could hardly see!
Most likely, the Bruce thing will just be an economic disaster, just like the Beck tunnel. The biggest environmental effect will be the tons of grout they have to inject, which is pure carbon into the air! But I'll bet this issue doesn't get into the hearings!
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Everybody knows, the stoned IT guys are the biggest downloaders of porn and scooper-pooper of viruses, but nobody can catch them! They gave this guy a loaded laptop, with tons of porn viruses, and no firewall. After a while, they took it back and shot him! At least in the States, he'll have fun suing!
Click on it to see something readable! Once you set up the model, you let it rip! Here are the distributed slips for their model.
You can see that some areas on the fault have slipped more than others, and this is realistic. The next step (on another paper) is not to assume a single planar fault, but assemble it from multiple planes. This gives a lower PGV along the fault, but about the same in the big soil basins.
Members can see the video on-line, but that seems like too much work for me! Here is a snapshot of the PGV shooting away from the fault and hitting the Los Angeles Basin. This is a directivity blast, which is much the same as my thrust 'Fist of God', but is a lateral pulse along a strike-slip fault.
You can see the PGV pulse zooms on past LA, but starts the whole valley shaking. It wouldn't be pleasant there! Finally, we see the maximum PGV's generated by this 'Big One'.
Remember, it takes 0.5 m/s to damage a house, about 2 m/s to collapse things, and 4 m/s for things thrown in the air! (along with total destruction!). Still, we only expect 10-20% of total building stock destruction, since many structures are strong, and on solid foundations.
I love papers like this, since they make reporting in PGA, or 'spectral acceleration', or 'response spectrum', a total farce! The decent structural analysis, with absorbing elements uses explicit code with direct velocity time histories. Nevertheless, expect the Nuclear Industry to continue to use acceleration, since they are all very old guys, and we must take pity on them. :)
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
"We truly have a fair and transparent process. All three of them appreciate that we are going to select the one that's best for the long-term interest of Ontario," he said.
He's not quite a Clinton in the word-mucking business, but he's getting there.
Monday, June 16, 2008
For me, this confirms another 'super quake', or super-shear 'Fist of God', thrust rupture. Good thing most people were on rock! I suspect the PGV on rock is not that high, perhaps under 0.5 m/s. I still haven't found the PGV for the Japan nuclear plant earthquake, which I suspect is about 2 m/s.
The next papers from the BSSA will show that the modern scientific world (the part that I respect) has moved totally away from PGA and is using PGV. Only the old nuclear world clings to PGA!
ps. this provides a bit more weight towards getting the AECL thing, since the PR says there's room for 4 reactors at Darlington, and I know there's not enough room for 4 AP1000's.
But to put these things into perspective, it's just as bad in the rest of the developing world. Everybody puts up a building that can hold a coat of shiny paint! The incentives are all in putting up the building cheaply, using coat-hanger steel, and cheesy concrete (like the French!). Very few countries have the civic infrastructure to combat this.
Here in Canada, as in northern Japan, we have snow loads to keep us honest. They rest of the world has only infrequent extreme loads. In the States, they just give up for tornadoes and hurricanes, their cheap houses can't stand up to anything! Wait until there is a New York earthquake, then you'll see some corruption!
Come on Big Media! Don't you have anybody with talent, or has the internet bled you dry? Get into blogging! I'm making a good 10 cents a month with my blog!
I start with a great paper, which describes the world-wide stress disturbance of a giant earthquake. Anyone who has done discreet modeling with sliding blocks knows that perturbations go way farther than expected, because the whole thing is a non-linear mess! And so it is with the earth.
The basic hypothesis involves this fact and looks for seismicity changes following giant earthquakes. It found a significant effect, especially when you sort out areas that would become more unstable by the stress disturbance (some areas would become more stable).
They used past data to refine the method, but then did a brave thing. They have calculated the 'weather report' of earthquakes, disturbed by the giant M9 tsunami Sumatra quake.
There is a good chance that all these red areas will be lit up like Christmas trees in the next few years. I haven't really checked whether China and Japan fit this, since you have to look at this stupid map with a magnifying glass, and there are multiple mechanisms within each zone.
So if you're wondering if there are a lot more earthquakes recently, maybe you're right! And maybe the Toronto area got a good whump, so crazy Harold will finally be vindicated! Muhaha!
I just love the quotes!
Marie Wilson, spokeswoman for Ontario Power Generation, said there is little to worry about because the project is in an investigative stage and far from a final decision.
With that reasoning, you should never comment about it, even though the period for comments is closing.
"We had some excellent, excellent indications that the expectations for the rock properties are what we expected," she said. "There's a growing consensus among the geoscientific community that the repository site is very suitable."
Ha! They don't release those results, so the only people that are supportive, are those who get a lot of money! They never did say what they 'expected', so they can always move this target.
She would not speculate about what scientists could discover to derail the project.
There is nothing they could discover, which cannot be spinned, under the closed, expertly filtered system. Here's an imaginary example: "We have found that the massively fractured rock, provides a low-stress environment for our repository. The water is stagnant, since we have not put in a repository yet, which is a long time from now."
Sunday, June 15, 2008
OMG! Who can win in a sound-bite war? That's why I stay out of them, these guys are way too good! Still, none of these guys have quoted me.....
The good news is that modern buildings stood up very well. They probably had a decent rock foundation in this mountainous country. You can see the pictures of all the rock landslide damage. At least Japan usually has some decent seismic monitoring, and we'll learn something, if they decide to tell anybody anything. Unlike that last earthquake that hit the nuclear station!
But once again, I think these 'early warning systems' are a pipe-dream.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Of course, nobody has looked at the problem here in the Golden Horseshoe, so there isn't one!
He is probably working on the next campaign to get Nanticoke elected!
On the other hand, the cost of having no power is also expensive.
Speaking of power, we've been having a lot of power failures lately in Toronto. It's getting to be a pain to reset everything!
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Nanticoke is, of course, a bad a site as Bruce. But don't tell anybody, since it's fun to see how they can justify things on horrible sites.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
The dam was quite high, and truthfully, these things can only knock off a maximum of an M6 in the local area, because of fractal considerations, and the fault dimensions. You would be stretching it to start an M7, because that requires about 30 km of disturbance.
But an M6 or 7 can tip the first domino, if everything else is ready to go! An M8 is just 30 M7's all strung together. I just know that I wouldn't want to be shooting off M6's in that powder keg!
Thus, as the man says, an M8 was inevitable for the area, but maybe not for another 100 years. A detailed look at the seismic records could confirm a non-linear increase in earthquake energy for the dam, but why do I think this isn't going to happen? They got enough problems with the shoddy school issue, and I think they are going to sit on this.
Personally, I'm happy with the statement that the dam triggered this massive quake, but who am I? And does it really matter?
The article says that prices won't fall, but that depends on how many people are desperate to sell.
They have yet to open the phone lines on this one. So far, the secretive judges want to keep this one all to themselves!
On my cottage road, which is about 8 km of gravel into a wild forest, is an apparent population surge of wild turkeys. These are magnificent birds, and are highly protected by the government. If you take out competition from hunting humans, these birds do quite well for themselves against the local predators, such as wolves. They can defend themselves, and can actually fly a short distance to low branches.
I drive a lot slower now, watching out for these stupid birds, which suddenly appear before you, without a care in the world!
Monday, June 9, 2008
Although they had put in some sort of blowout preventer, it was not enough. The question is whether anything would have been enough, or perhaps they just should not have been drilling there. I can't see that anyone had foreseen something like this happening. As for the actual mud volcano, it has blown out like a giant zit, and is now cratering.
Greece is very interesting because of the tectonics. That whole area is a zone of thin crust, which is being pulled like toffee. That results in beautiful islands which are essentially normal faulted blocks, which have fallen into the earth. A Greek island typically has one very steep side, and one with a smooth slope, indicating a tilted block.
Earthquakes happen all the time in area, but the overall strain rate is much less than the Himalayas, meaning that for any given spot, it might be hundreds of years between quakes, and these quakes don't spread the damage very far, because of the thin crust. That is why everybody merrily makes their houses out of rubble! The beautiful island of Santorini is a disaster waiting to happen!
Note the perfect slope of the tilted blocks!
The thin crust also gives rise to civilization-busting volcanoes!
ps. scratch that comment of a tilted block in the picture! This is ancient volcano and caldera country. I wish I could go and check it out!
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
This is a fantastic image showing the amount of leaf cover in April. The tan means no leaves, and the dark green means extensive cover (several layers). North America probably doesn't have its leaves out yet. I was wondering about the area around Chaiten, but they don't have any data there.
But anyway, you can locate near the lakes, or right under them, if you have a diffusion situation, which means extremely tight and impermeable rock.
ps. I was just thinking that when the Sir Adam Beck tunnel boring machine finally gets hopelessly stuck, the uncompleted tunnel would make a great nuclear waste disposal facility! Just backfill the tunnel with nuclear waste! That Queenston shale is very impermeable, even though it doesn't hold up, but the rock squeeze will just seal up the waste forever!
Monday, June 2, 2008
I hope this leaves things clear, to properly blame earthquakes, when they are 'at fault'!
Another great Modis picture of the ash plume. I would have expected the whole area to be white by now, but maybe the rain keeps washing things away. It will be interesting to see how Nature recovers from this. Once things settle, the ash is very fertile.
Of course with all these things, you have to put in some perspective. If the kids are wild, are bunk beds the biggest threat? If the young males are idiots, do they get killed by bunk beds or motorcycles?