A brutal winter coming up, caused by the merry, dancing jet stream. The US natgas storage is following a good line.
Last year they hardly put any gas in storage because of the high prices. They were saved by the El Nino having quite an effect on temperatures.
In Canada, we have enough natgas, so we won't freeze. I'm predicting that the minimum in US storage will go below the band. Then the prices will rise. But I said that last year and I was wrong. Bah to uncertainties, I'm going to put on my brown face now, or is that brown pants?
This is the easiest parameter to measure directly with physics, but it won't be done, since they know it will be zero. The warmies are using 1850 absorption values, combined with curve-fitting. The assumption is that the co2 absorbs the heat and doesn't do anything with it.
However, these guys claimed to have increased the parameter, thus bringing the end of the world closer. I was astonished, so I assume they are curve-fitting just the 2016 El Nino which was a huge spike. With this new value, there is no hope for anybody. Just relax and have the 'beaujolais nouveau' cannabis from your garden.
The whole neighbourhood is abuzz with talk about their cannabis plants. One old guy up the street got some unknown seeds and put in a bag of sheep manure. The plants are over 6 feet tall, and stink for hundreds of feet away. My variety stays small with no stink.
You can review my video on making cannabis oil.
It's funny that my potted plant has the vegetative leaves turn yellow, but the plant in the garden has no yellow. Those are the garbage leaves, anyway. I think it's best not to add too much manure, since these plants are better off suffering, just like potatoes.
A note on goopykardies. There is not a speck of proof that cbd oil extracted from hemp has any benefits. I had no luck with the pure molecules of thc or cbd. They are poison. The main benefit of my oil is the anti-inflammatory effect and that may be all the stinky terpenes. Just like you need stinky garlic to work, and the red stuff in red wine. If you can't grow, then buy the buds and process them.
The hurricanes feed on the extremely hot water. So, this last little hurricane is mopping up the remains of the northern section of hot water. We could still get one more whipping up the top of S. America and hitting Cuba. As well, there could be a Gulf hurricane. Both of these scenarios need a lot of precision, and that doesn't happen too often.
But hurricanes need cold air as well. Dorian is the last thing making the warmies happy. Now, poor Europe is about to be hit by record cold, but they will talk about the short heat wave forever. Single spike events carry no energy, but lots of press.
Yeah, the price of natgas is going up a bit. Perhaps we can have a good run of Ok-Kan earthquakes. This is an m4 at a new injection site in Kansas. As you can see with all the other spots, people have earthquakes for a while, and then bash the head of the guy doing it. Then all is peaceful again.
So, for Mr Injection Site, please remember that you can inject all the produced salt water you want, but if you touch the crack-frack natgas waste, you will get hit on the head.
I don't want to irritate those guys, who are having the big strike on the 20th. They are powerful.
So, here's 40 billion going to the philosophers. They should grab it fast before the world gets cold. However, I had wondered before how much 'nasa philosophy' has cost the world so far, including the freon thing. I had thought 1 trillion, but maybe it's more now.
I had suggested to the trumpies that they have a big physics contest about measuring the warmie mechanisms directly, but it's 'too fancy' for them. We will go on, and have fun about how long it takes for these guys to freeze up.
These are the people making lots of money from warminess. They just came out that the ice minimum is 2nd lowest, and that the Arctic will be ice-free in a couple of years. Good for them!
My hypothesis of flip-flopping heat flow, leads to the expectation of tremendous ice this year. It will be fun to get them out again. If you freeze yourself in when the ice is always decreasing, then you will get out at ice minimum. If, however, the ice is building, maybe trumpy can lend a nuclear bomb.
When they hit the 5m ice, I hope they have a bubbler system, or some way to jack the boat up on the ice. At least have measurements on ice pressure. Should be fun.
ps. this is great, the latest warmie physics. It's so perfect, except it leaves out convection, and scaling effects. It's 'truth' is that experiments in a bottle represent the entire atmosphere. You can never argue with this, just wait until it gets cold.
This is a classic heater union 2 inches. When I replaced the heater I got the threaded union from a plumbing shop and installed it. The union comes with a gasket and you can only get a fitting gasket with a union. But it was black and totally melted in the hot tub after a couple of years. Finding the leak was horrible.
So it is difficult to get a silicone gasket. Amazon has them for a horrendous price. None of the commercial plumbing shops have them. I finally went to a big pool parts place, and these things aren't labelled in the shop. He has hundreds of gaskets. I had all the measurements, especially that it was 3 inch OD. He finally gave me one for free.
The original gasket was flat but with an o-ring glued on one side. That holds the gasket in place as you try to put the union together. My flat gasket squirmed all over the place so I filled the channel with pure silicone and let it harden. Makes it a lot easier.
ps. Had I known I'd drive all over the place, I would have just got this. I may still need silicone on the other side.
This was funny, but I wrote in the comments that they were lazy and should do something. I proposed a big contest sponsored by the dead billies that someone measure the exact value of the 'carbon constant', Prize 3 million to an accredited atmospheric physics lab. Since the warmies killed all these guys, I am expecting new growth.
ps. a guy came back and said the physics was too fancy. I explained it in terms of a truck.
Nice cool September weather like my childhood. It's funny that I overheard one young lady muttering that in 'her' childhood, April and September were so warm, and now it's cold. I'm sure that these young'uns are going to question the warmie priests: 'Why is it so cold now?' and the answer will be 'Move along.'
In the next few days we'll see the new global temps charts. I am expecting a big drop and everybody will say 'Move along'. The 'Consensus of Self-Interest' will stay strong because to say otherwise subjects them to what they did to others.
If we are lucky, then the hurricanes will hit the UK and that will dominate the news. I'm thinking they will undershoot and freeze the UK, but that's in the future.
At the cottage, I'm felling trees for my carbon-neutral means of heating. No matter that the pollution is horrible, but there's nobody here.
Monday - quite cold at night. Had a sauna and the cold water quite shocked me. Only one cycle, today it might be two.
Wed. Sept 11. Really hot for one day. Sweating, and might go swimming.
This is interesting physics. Notice that I'm never mentioning the 'c' word any more, because Google will suck it up on Discover, and and endless self-interest people will want to censor it. To them, there can be no opposition.
It's amazing that you see the hurricane track in the water temps. It would be wonderful to have a full physics model of a hurricane and watch it practically boil the seawater. However, convection physics would run smack into the censors.
On the ENSO ONI we have a huge crash, showing the end of the El Nino. Buy extra sweaters.
Our winter is going to be a doozy. Expect to see lots of 'Dancing Jet Stream', which is all the warmies have in the winter.
This year I have a bumper crop from my medium-sized apple tree, and a big crop from the pear tree. I don't really know if this is a fluke, or my spray has worked wonders. Nothing works to save the cherry tree which is under attack from a fungus. I hope Dougie releases some of the rules on insect sprays.
Into two gallons of water in your sprayer, add:
1 tbls Home Defence insect spray (pyrethins)
2 tbls Miracle Gro powder (iron and fertilizer for the leaves)
2 drops dish soap (disperses the oils)
1 tbls Neem Oil (fungicide)
1 tbls Tea Oil (fungicide)
1 tbls Epson Salts (added magnesium for plants, gives slugs a tummy ache)
1 tbls Borax (ants hate it, and protects from aphids)
This is a very light, mostly organic, spray. Spray every week, since it doesn't stick around. No residual after a wash or rain.
It only works if the slug or insect eats a lot of plants. My apples this year are 99% worm-free with very little scab.
Works on everything, but don't spray flowers if the bees are on them. The spray is very non-poisonous and you could probably drink it. :)
Don't use it in California since it causes cancer only there. :) along with pure spring water.
The water in the mid-Atlantic is very hot. The air and water just above it is very cold.
This is all just perfect for hurricanes. The UK thinks they will get a heatwave out of this. Ha.
It's hilarious that all these guys have been calling for a heatwave all summer. Not going to happen. But the upper picture is interesting. We've got new hurricanes forming in the Gulf and all over the Atlantic. But since the UK economy is tanking, I'm not going to make fun of them any more. They put all their intellectual energy into warmie stories, and not into making things (that requires physics). Sad.
This is exciting enough to break my vow of silence for a minute. Hurricane Dorian is predicted to rake the trumpy coast and not strike.
However, there is overwhelming momentum from the Atlantic wind belt to slam it into the golf course.
Fighting against this is the channel of hot water from the vestigial Gulf Stream. Hurricanes like to travel up the highway of heat.
It will be quite interesting to see which force wins.
ps. I forgot to mention that the most important physics here is the 'difference' between the hot and cold air. You can have the hottest air and it just sits there like a blob. Only when cold air slides over it you get energy released. All the warmies say is 'hotter air holds more moisture' which is irrelevant crap. :)
pps. the projected track is always nudging closer to trumpyland.
more: whew. I was worried there hasn't been any warmie press. Thank goodness for the WP: The unusual strength of Dorian and the rate at which it developed is consistent with the expectation of more intense hurricanes in a warming world. Some studies have shown increases in hurricane rapid intensification, and modeling studies project an uptick in the frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms.
I'm going to force a break until Sept 6 when the new world temp charts are out.
A summary: I had a big audience when I showed the warm air of Europe smashing against Greenland. That air eventually surrounded the place and gave it a one-day heatwave that we are still reading about.
All the physics points to a colder and colder time for the North. Yuck, get your house in order.
Earthquakes remain at an all-time low, making it boring for me.
My readers are also affected by intense boredom and are dropping off like flies. I love you, Penny, my last reader. Bye for now.
I find this hilarious. Most people wouldn't. Liberal arts majors go into teaching because they don't want to be uberdrivers. It's a good living. And there are the politicians who control things, and they are all lawyers.
Imagine a world with a math culture. People would know the difference between an exponential and a linear plot. They would ask for uncertainties when English Majors make pronouncements on temperature rise. There would actually be logic in the world.
This will come to an ignoble end. All the non-mathers will rise and say "We don't need no stinkin' math and physics'. However, I wish them the best of luck.
There is a good hypothesis that global ocean warming will raise co2. This could be tested, but it won't be. On the reverse, global cooling will affect the trend.
So, you take the edge of a piece of paper and apply it along the curve. You can see in the 60's we may have gone up to an exponential of 2, that is a quadratic. As we go more recent, we can put the edge on a longer section, and it is linear.
A magnification of the recent years shows that the linear slope may be flattening. The English Majors of No Math, will fall back on the fact that it is still rising.
This is not a trumpie or warmie pronouncement. It is just interesting, and is a good hypothesis for further testing.
The winter will continue the trend of an ice age of some sort. But now the El Nino is gone. As I've said before, I just hope we go into a regular 20 year cycle, like the 70s. This should give Toronto some -30 time, and Georgian Bay should be -40. Ah, the winter camping of my youth.
There is a 10% chance we'll break through the bottom of the 'minor ice age', and go to a 'major ice age', the 300 year cycle. I won't be around to see that. :)
Well, he seemed so low that I couldn't say no; then he says with a sort of moan: "It's the cursed cold, and it's got right hold till I'm chilled clean through to the bone. Yet 'tain't being dead -- it's my awful dread of the icy grave that pains; So I want you to swear that, foul or fair, you'll cremate my last remains." ... And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar; And he wore a smile you could see a mile, and he said: "Please close that door. It's fine in here, but I greatly fear you'll let in the cold and storm -- Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm."
Just shut the damn door for me!
In the meantime, the Arctic ice volume chart is getting ragged at the minimum.
Prepare for a slew of warmie press when it hits the minimum. Much more energy is at the top, and I expect it to beat 2017 without the EN to slow it.
The weekly ocean currents show nothing new. There is a weak reversal in the Pacific, and the Atlantic flow to the south has its ups and downs. We can make fun of the UK with their 3 day heatwave, the only warmth of their summer.
ps. in the winter, Toronto lives on road salt. Below -10C salt is ineffective.
Since I like snorkelling, I've been following the 'full face snorkel' controversy for some time. There is a ton of physics in this. Basically, the first version was just a full face mask with a snorkel tube. That ended up killing people, or knocking them out because the large volume did not allow for the co2 to clear. Thus you were breathing back your breath.
Now we have a new version which looks like Antman. It has two tubes, will ball valves. There is an inner mask for breathing. So you suck in with the tubes, and breath out with the front valve. Neat. There is an amazing little valve for draining water.
You can jog with this one, although someone will call the police. We've tested it at the cottage, and all say they will never go back to an original snorkel. It is good for shallow dives, but the large volume adds buoyancy. You come up and breath again, you don't need to blow tubes. My son could do a full front-crawl sprint with it. His girlfriend could swim hard, but not a sprint.
We used it to clear weeds. I'm taking it on my next trip. For my wife I ordered a pink one.
I just added the cheap action camera, which fits on the snorkel.
The current that is freezing the UK right now is showing best right now.
You can't measure the current under the ice, easily. This is showing that the current is a result of freezing and thawing the Arctic ice. You can see that there is a net flow out from the North Pole area. The mechanism is unknown. However, if I were trumply I would measure the flow and salinity, and see if it changes with the seasons.
This current gets stronger when the ice freezes, so my hypothesis would be that the current is strongly saline. The summer flow might be just leftovers from the winter. Who knows? That's the joy of the Scientific Method, as opposed to Kipling-esque 'Just So' stories after the fact.
My 10 readers can have as much fun as me in reading the warmie headlines. The UK is crowing about 'Hottest Bank Holiday Ever'. Their '3 week heatwave' that would rescue summer is a 3 day heatwave, as I thought.
These are the Atlantic surface temps. They are showing the strongest flow south I've ever seen at this time of year. The current maps are also showing a strong flow to the south.
The warm, moist air is avoiding the Amazon right now, giving rise to those fires. A small hurricane is starting just to the north of S. America. Every fire, flood, one day heatwave is just grist for the warmie mill.
ps. since I predicted two years ago that the UK will be New Labrador (hypothesis correct), I must list all the things I have been wrong about. In warmieville, being wrong is death, but I follow the Scientific Method where being wrong is great. Wrong about: Natural gas prices. I thought a cold winter and running out of storage would zoom the prices. Toronto real estate - always wrong about that. It will crash, but timing is everything. Oklahoma earthquakes -- goes with natgas prices.
The Arctic ice volume goes up and down with the seasons. Right now it is going down. But it is crowded at the bottom. The ice volume is getting closer to zero. The fun part is that all the previous years are jammed at this point.
The warmie press is now making a big deal of melting, but everything is a hair's width from each other. On the other hand, the maximum is open to the sky. There is a much bigger spread.
A couple of storms can make a big difference in the minimum. Right now we are going along a smooth curve, but the big minimum took a big turn at this point.
In other news, the UK is having a 4 day heat-wave instead of the 3 weeks they were touting.
A plume is just skimming them. Perhaps they'll be lucky on the next one, so they can say they had a summer. I don't wish the cold upon them, but without the Gulf Stream they are the same as Nfld. Great for blueberries in September. Yum.
As well, the press was going on about a warm plume hitting the Arctic for a day. It looks like it faded out.
Now we come to September, which will be cold. I look forward to what they can wring out of this.
Two days of hot Gulf air, and now it is very cool with a strong north wind. This is August weather from the 70's. A plume of hot Gulf air is zooming up the prairies to hit the Arctic. This may drive down the minimum ice volume which will be a great joy for warmies. They pick and choose, and ignore the charts.
Big white caps on the lake. We did get an inch of rain, and are now digging up our potatoes. It's the only thing that grows at the cottage. The sandy soil is already totally dry and the potatoes come out like they were scrubbed. The high mineral content and the compost from the compost toilet makes for a delicious potato.
Rocks grow the best. The potato yield was less than the bag of seed potatoes. :)
Saturday -- very calm. The temp will go down to 4C, quite low for August. I hate to think of the cold when we come Thanksgiving to close up. However, the water is warm and I will take a dip tomorrow.
Back home on Sunday - a sunny and cool weekend. I didn't go into the water today because it was cool.
First of all, it mentions the very cold air. And it never mentions carbon warming. This is a first! But that's all they'll say, because of the warmie gun to their heads. Then they say this cold is only a random thing, that it will get warm again. Ha! But they don't go into any physics or charts, or cause.
The warmies will go that 'Arctic melting' is causing the Godzilla Jet Stream to rise up and hit us. I like that one.
It is standard practice at my old company to say everything is peachy until the last day when it is due. Then it is delayed. The worst is that every department does this on every little thing.
My main prediction is that this is a total disaster. We'll only hear about it in dribs and drabs. They are replacing things with the same recipe from 30 years ago, and that can't be done. They are ignoring physics, and trying to keep with the original seismic specs. None of that can be done.
But luckily, I'll never hear about it so it won't get me upset. The talking heads of the PR department will keep us amused.
Not too shabby. Last week I said it was at a minimum, and now there appears to be greater strength. Of course, I may be seeing things, since there may not be enough floaters for this type of resolution. In a couple of months we'll see a big difference.
This is the current that the warmies say is from all the melting ice of Greenland.
Greenland ice is dancing in the streets. All those articles are from the one day it was warm. Can't they have one warm day without all the commotion? They are always measuring the salinity from this current, but the data records are hiding in warmie-land. You would probably see high salinity for the current, the exact opposite of warmie fantasy. nasa is probably sitting on it, just like they are sitting on anybody who says the ice is fine.
The problem with the ice sheets here and in Antarctica is that you can't penetrate the whole thing with radar and get a volume. So, when the ice surges and breaks up on the sea you can't tell if it is just shedding excess weight. Warmies see all that ice going into the ocean as 'melting', and raising sea levels. Another great victory for anti-physics.
So, if the UK has no summer, and a horrible 20 below winter, will that mean anything? If world temps crash to the bottom, will the faith be broken? No. I have great faith in the power of faith, especially if money is involved. Expect more stories like nasty jet streams and 'warming means cooling'. Looking forward to it.
They are hoping that this huge tropical plume hits them.
Not going to happen. Without the Gulf Stream, the recent pattern has been for these things to go below the UK. Again, the GS would always bring these plumes up north.
Meanwhile, our pattern is quite interesting. A very high plume is pouring down cool air on us, but the air over Toronto is quite stagnant. This gives us 'default' August weather, so we'll have another week or two of warm weather. The huge Gulf plume is missing us.
ps. the plume did go south of the UK but they expect it to curl around. We'll see.
Since they are practically giving away natgas, it's rare to see this. Basically, some injection guy wants to make more money and he allows natgas frack waste. This water is fresh, and agressive to the quartz in the deep rocks. Soon earthquakes follow and he says "Wasn't me".
If I cared any more, then I would zoom with Googs on that spot and I would see an injection site. La la. Soon the old ladies around that zone will hit the guy with their canes. Injection and earthquakes will stop. Nobody will tell what they did.
ps. another m4. Those ladies that lose their Royal Dalton are going to kill him.
pps. I did look, but the earthquakes are scattered due to poor seismometer coverage, and I couldn't find anything. Probably means the injection site is new.
Yeah, like all new exercise toys, this one is neat. Whether it ends up in a dusty corner, is another matter.
I find exercise to be boring. I can't stand it because my brain rejects 'boring' quite violently. I can't do yoga because if I bend down, my scalp gets itchy. I read that up and it's a deadly brain tumour. Oh well.
This is from Germany, and it is promoted by bikini models, yeah! The good thing about Costco is that we can use it for a while and then take it back. That's important for all these things, since the body reacts to anything new, like you are trying to poison it. Then you feel great for 2 weeks as all the 'fight or flight' chemicals flood into your body. If it actually works after 2 weeks then you are golden. This is true for all the wacky cures and supplements.
Also, you can collect a huge number of testimonials if it only works for 1 out of 10.
Does this work with the first two days? Oh yeah! I feel jiggly all over. If there is physics, it's that you are riding a horse, your muscles attempt to maintain balance. Thus, they say that the exercise is concentrated by a factor of six, and I would love that to be true.
Lets just imagine that world hasn't been Goopified, and you wanted to test it. Your hypothesis would be that the exercise is concentrated. How would you confirm or deny it? Needless to say it hasn't been done, and it may be impossible because of the psychological factors. So, get it from Costco and use it for two weeks. Keep the packaging. Don't feel guilty, because there isn't a speck of scientific testing.
** something like $900 buckeroos.
ps. wow, a little jiggle before you go to bed puts you right out.
My old guy lambasted me for being inscrutable. He says I think too fast for anybody, and things just zoom over their heads. I don't mind that, otherwise I'd be in FB all the time, and the warmie heavy guns would be after me. As it is, I am safely buried with the other cranks.
All the media is now full of 'ice minimum' stories, mainly using the worse projections and saying that all the Arctic ice will vanish at the September minimum.
But, the chart has made a tremendous change of curvature (2nd derivative) . Now, I don't expect anybody to know calculus, but this is a big deal. Could you see a warmie mentioning calculus? Or energy balance, heat flow, convection. Nope, it's all selective facts, and 'just so' stories. That's how you make money.
The point is that I couldn't convince my own dog, using the warmie rules of debate. All I can do is stay with the Scientific Method, and let others suffer the consequences of leaving it. If I had money, then I would put out my hypothesis, and test it. It would pass or fail. If it failed, I would lose my entire scientific career and be on the streets begging for more money. Very pitiful. :)
The main reason for this series is to note the changes in ocean currents over the years. 99% of heat flow in the Earth is carried by ocean currents.
This is showing the Atlantic belt. In a very short time, the heat is going south again. This time it is quite strong, and early. Buy long underwear.
This just shows that all reversals have stopped in the Pacific. If you look at a few months earlier, you would have seen the full El Nino in all its glory.
Finally we have the new villian in the piece. This is the Arctic current coming around Greenland. The warmies make up the story that this is all from Greenland melting, yet it is at a miniumum right now. The only article on the Gulf Stream blames everything on the melt water. Look at last winter and the coming one to see it strengthen. It's been around only since the last big El Nino went bust.
The warmie Guardian now has lots of articles about Greenlanders weeping for their lost ice. They had a one-day heat wave (just above freezing) and the warmies are still pumping that for all its worth. Now everything is normal. At ice minimum, all the Arctic is enjoying summer (1 deg C).
Sorry UK, but it's back to peas and turnips. That's what you get when Winter strikes in August. And next year it will worse. Strike cauliflower off the menu for good. Europe always gets a short heatwave from the Sahara that kills everything, and they'll probably get one next year.
Yeah, freezing cold, tornadoes, thunderstorms, it's all due to warming.
ps. I'm now rolling in tomatoes, and the broccs are starting to broccolize.
pps. they are declaring the end of summer for Europe, even though they did have a short heat wave. Can't wait for the warmie comment.