Friday, May 24, 2019

Warmies accused of back-fitting


Say it ain't so, Joe.  

It’s a compelling portrait, but it could have been substantially different if the team had used other, equally justifiable assumptions about the climate impact of aerosols, Booth says. Trenberth thinks the team’s adjustments had the effect of fitting the model to an uncertain record. “There is considerable wiggle room in just what the actual record is,” he says.

What is surprising, is the accusation of back-fitting, which is my accusation for the whole thing.

Note for Warmie Survival:  This is exactly sort of thing needed for your survival when everybody is freezing.  Hit hard in July, secure your funding.  Always use a different data set when dissing alternatives, than used for justifying the carbon hypothesis in the first place. 

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Greenhouse woes

So, every other day we get huge windstorms from the east or west.  My greenhouse frame is in the lower position, but still gets whapped.  So far, we haven't had any sun to to make the soil warmer.  All in all, a total waste for anything.

This means we'll never grow decent tomatoes in Toronto again.  I'll just plant turnips like they do in northern Labrador.  Beets are good, as well, like in Russia.  If I can just get that dastardly wabbit!

Saving NASA

Dear nasa,  I consider you the primary mover for ozone and greenhouse gases.  Without you, nobody would have known about these things.  I especially liked what you did to those guys who did an experiment and saw that the reaction rate for ozone destruction was factors of 10 below that needed, when tested in realistic conditions.

Moving on, you made sure that nobody did any experiments when you declared the 'greenhouse gas' story.  After all, your PR people approved it, since it sounded totally reasonable.  Any balloon packages had to point their lasers up and not down.  Why flog a dead horse?

Sorry about those guys who let slip that the Greenland glaciers were growing again.  How did they get past the PR department?

Now you may have a problem that everybody can feel the cold, and no experiments necessary.  This could lead to a 'Loss of Faith' in the nasa religion.  Don't let this get you down, and rise to the occasion.  The best plan is 'distraction' as used by trumpy.  In your case, go on and on about Mars and the Moon, even though you can't fire a rocket through a paper bag.

If somebody actually risks the Spanish Inquisition and goes with the Ice Age story, you can deny anything to do with the trillions of dollars wasted.  Say "Not my job.".  That's good!

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Ocean current report May 21, 2019

So, you are all saying -- Surely to goodness, it must get warmer!  Like I've said, we'll get our stagnant air July, but everything else will be colder and colder.  I remember 20 years ago when warmies made bets that next year would be hotter.  They always won, and drove the doubters into the dirt.  Who'd believe that two cycles would combine?  Who would believe bitcoin?

Yet, I could make the opposite bet now.  Next year will be colder.  But I have physics, and the above picture shows the 'Anti Gulf Stream' going higher and getting stronger.  That didn't even exist two years ago!  Yet here it is, the Flug Stream, or maybe somebody has a better name.

So, all you warmies, hold on until July, then you can say "Warmest July Ever!" **  You can keep going for another year.  After a few more frozen years, and all the ice advancing, maybe you won't get any more money.  But, party like it's 1999!

** no ocean breeze means no rain and totally stagnant air under the full July sun.  I finally got my air conditioner fixed by getting a totally new one.  Damn nasa forced out freon and gave us this 400 psi crap so that one micro crack destroys the whole system.

ps.  so, this is good for you warmies, it'll keep you going for June.  Also, I was reading that winds cause ocean currents.  That's good as well.  Stories always triumph over physics.  :)

pps.  my new campaign is Warmie Survival.  Sooner or later the people will rise up with pitchforks and carbon-emitting torches and storm the castles.  I am not encouraging this, since these people are fine English Majors who gave up math in Grade 11.  So, warmies make hay while the July sun shines and secure your funding for the year.  Come up with more trillion-dollar schemes.  Everybody loved your last trillion dollars of economic activity.  Ground-up solar cells can be used to pave roads.  :)

Linux -- Snappier performance with 5.2 kernel

That's the nice thing about Linux, it takes a year or two, but they know how to get a processor working.  My Ryzen 5 with the built-in graphics has become much snappier with 5.2 rc1.  Personally, I'm just glad it is working, but I'll take the greater performance.

Arctic ice volume changes slope

Just when we thought it was safe to come out and plant the tomatoes, the Arctic ice volume curve is inflecting.  It should be concave, going down, but it is ski jumping.  Poor Penny on the highlands.

The poor UK has mixed forecasts.

I'm going with cold for them.


pps.  good for the Lake Trout, they were evolved for an ice age.

more:  Wed was so cold, I thought there was snow.  Here's the forecast for future summers:  "Second verse, same as the first, a little bit colder and a little bit worse."

Sunday, May 19, 2019

The long weekend

Nice fish. Blackflies are light.

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Linux -- Ditch Intel


Yes, this is patched, but it cuts down on performance.  If you use win, then you don't care about performance and I don't even think this security thing can get through the other security things.

I've been using amd ever since I was putting together computers.  But I'm not preaching...

Snow in the East, nice video


The video isn't bad, but they put too much on the Sun.  But they did mention ocean cycles at the very end, in a very small voice.  They raise the point of flat temperatures.

I wish they were called Friends of Physics, but we can't have everything.  But the whole debate is becoming extreme.  The Washington Post cherry-picks one warm Arctic temperature for one day because of a plume.  The German Nazis pick on the little girl.

We can only wait and get colder.  Eventually, people will say 'What the heck?' and we'll get some physics.  :)

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Growing Medical Mycelium

This is the next big thing to legalize, after Coca leaves.  It is already legal in Denver, and is being used in palliative care.  This stuff or morphine, I don't care, just give me the button for the dose.  :)

You would know it by some other name that I won't mention, for fear of right-wing search engines, but if Mr. Doug wants to make money, then he's got to go into all of this.

As I used to say about cannabis a few years ago, I've got this friend who got a kit for making this stuff.  It looks like a heck of a lot of work.  You have to sterilize everything, etc.  Right now I see very little chance of success, but I'll give it a try.  -- whoops, my friend will give it a try.

Monday, May 13, 2019

Climate Change Mitigation

All those Quebec students got upset at this notion.  Why do we have to do anything?  Blah.

But my mitigation is for the ice age.  No heat is coming from the equator to warm us.  We are on our own.  Warmies can have their protests out in the freezing cold.

As an engineer, we have to mitigate for freezing cold.  We had our fun during the warming cycle, but now we may be back to the early 1800's.  I hope it is only back to the 70's but that is very optimistic.  We are crashing through a cold floor.

Our northern communities will be greatly affected.  I was just reading how nfl is mired in debt and big spending.  They have to do something to remain lively for young people.  All of St. Johns should go underground like northern Sweden.  It's the only hope.

In Ontario, we have wasted billions being good lefties.  What are we going to do now?  In the new perpetual gloom, our solar cells and wind mills will rust.  We need new nuclear.  Unfortunately, our nuclear cult is in the hands of idiots.  I'm pretty sure we can say that the Darlington refurb won't work, although they will deny it until the day they have to turn it on.

I have proposed many times that we need a new nuclear centre in Wesleyville, connected to Toronto by a high-speed train.  We can get some brains there.  We need new nuclear plants and new ideas.  Otherwise, freeze in the dark.

Ontario needs to push growing coca leaves under glass and lights.  Think of the money!  But there will be no political will until everybody is starving and freezing.  The lefties will demand more healthcare and education.  No money.

Anyway, I'm retired and can stay warm burning leftie leaflets.  :)

ps.  all the news is now on carbon dioxide levels alone.  I suspect they will just move on to that.

Dance recital

In this weather, I bagged my homemade wine and processed videos.  You can't put dance recitals on utube because they are always flagged, but you can here.

ps.  100mb limit, so the long ones had to be compressed.  I also used Linux stabilize on them, since I'm always rocking with the music.  :)

pps. another one

Sunday, May 12, 2019

How to live with no warmth

The Grand Oscillation is upon us.  That's when the oceans decide to shift all the heat to the Southern Hemisphere, instead of us.  Although you think it is cold now, wait until next year.  Colder and colder is our future.

Some of us have lived through this in the 70's.  We didn't die.  In our family The Girl said it was colder here than in the Ukraine.  That's her memory for the last 20 years.  Ha!  It's no so warm there now.  Some other young people have said "How can we live in such a cold country?  Let's go to California."  They don't want you!

So, what to do, what to do...   This is merely a shift in latitude.  We, in Toronto, will be more like Northern Sweden, and they will be the north pole.  Plant everything in poly tunnels.

Have nice indoor hobbies, like growing magic mushrooms.  Use blue light to wake up in the morning.  Use grow lights for your cannabis.  Laugh at people worried about carbon dioxide.  We can survive this.

ps.  Our El Nino is truly over.

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Monthly global temperatures - massive heat transfer to the Southern Hemisphere

Yeah, the monthly satellite temperatures are in.  These were loved by the warmies when the temps were rising, but now they are ignored.  However, good news for the warmies, and they can put this chart on the Guardian again -- Global Temperatures Are Up!

We have global warming again!  But wait, why does it feel so cold?  Is there a problem here?

Yes, the northern mid-latitudes (us suckers) are down, and it's Spring!

The Southern Mids are way up, and they are going into winter.

As the ocean currents show, they are stealing our heat!  The North Pole is dropping, but that's because it had so much heat earlier.

So, we now have our reason for Major Ice Advances, and the various ice age cycles, like what we are going into right now.  All the heat takes a vacation down South.  Our heat flow sloshes up and down like a drunken sailor.

ps.  Yeah, we actually get to live Game of Thrones!

Friday, May 10, 2019

Raspberry Pi tv hat is a paper-weight in North America

I saw that Digi-key carried it, and it must work in North America.  Nope.  And the effort and cost required to return it isn't worth it.

I just wanted to take the dtv signals from the upstairs antenna and watch them downstairs.  I'm trying something new, more expensive, but it's Amazon.


Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Climate Change -- Meet Physics

I'm celebrating a new reader, the guy who is replacing my lemon air conditioner.  I'm ripping the whole thing out, most likely the old installers followed the old procedures.  By never mind my sorrows, let's do a physics recap for him.

We've have an extraordinary rise in global temperatures in the last 20 years.  The warming was driven by being at the peak of two ocean cycles - the 300-600 cycle that gave us the 1700's Little Ice Age, and the 1200's Medieval Warming Cycle.  There was also the 20-40 year cycle that gave us the 70's.  Our current warming cycle was nothing compared to that of the Medieval, as confirmed by crop records.  The warmies threw all that stuff out.

In fact, the whole warmie thing has been a masterful stroke of spurious correlation and cherry-picking facts.  Using these methods you can convince people of anything.  

 If you use physics, then you realize that there are big things and little things.  The little things cannot influence the big things.  You can have huge earthquakes and a small amount of earth tide force.  Lots of people have said that the tides cause earthquakes but they are forgetting the huge disturbances in the earth, all the time.  The tail does not wag the dog.

When they came up with carbon dioxide, they excluded the big things.  They just put up carbon on a debate castle and knocked down any other explanation, even though carbon suffered the same defects as anything else.  Nobody knows what causes temperature fluctuations, because nobody investigates it.

And that's the big issue.  They just pronounced carbon, just as they pronounced freon destroys ozone, and then did nothing about it.  The debate was settled, they declared it as 'truth'.

If the world wants to go back to Aristotle, then I'm not stopping it.  It's just that there are huge consequences of ignoring physics.  We see it all the time, and we'll see a lot more. 

The Shattered Sewer


Dear Mayor, this has been a horrible botch-up from the start.  The installation of the water main cracked my big clay sewer pipe, but didn't open.  They had closed up for a week before there was trouble.  Then came the big rain at Easter.  The silt and gravel in the sewer slid and blocked up the flow.  That got my poor neighbour but they could easily see backflow down the manhole.  My sewer has also gone to very top.

They flushed the sewer a bit and cleared it for next door.  Mine was never fixed.  The extra pressure from the blockage shattered the sewer.  It was huge break.  I had weeks of fighting with the city because I didn't want to dig up my cleanout in the downstairs living room.  I finally did today.

The city came and put in the camera and it got stuck.  They couldn't see anything but located the break right under the new watermain.  Then the water main people came and fixed it.

So, beware that the installation of a new watermain may crack your sewer pipe.  I still think they main sewer is silted up, but they'll take their sweet time on it.

Ocean current news - May 6, 2019

In the news today, the Atlantic belt has opened up a complete coherent channel of heat to the south.  This has never happened before since modern observation began, which isn't that long ago.

This channel is now carrying more heat than the nearly-dead Gulf Stream.

This ensures a cold May and June, but a super-hot July as we had in the 50's.

In other news, Toronto housing is showing a fine dead-cat bounce.

The sales around our place are all old people taking the 20% haircut.

Further news shows the Arctic ice finally melting.

Meanwhile, our street's main sewer is blocked with stones.  :(

ps.  my sewer was fixed!

Monday, May 6, 2019

Powerful El Ninos caused by carbon warming


Yes, that's right.  A phenomenon that has a thousand times the energy of anything atmospheric has come up like gangbusters in the last 30 years.  Their 400 year history is smack into the beginning of the Little Ice Age, and does not get into the Medieval Warming Period.

However, really, there is only 1997 and 2016 that were huge and many times the size of the last 400 years, according to this.  Never any mention of resolution.  Oh well.

** this is satire, just to catch the warmie's attention.  They will truly believe this.  A big El Nino throws up the world temps like a rocket.  But let's just not say anything...

ps.  this is an example of the many Principles of Physics that the warmies ignore.  Mainly, that if a major process is orders of magnitude bigger than a minor process, then the minor process is swamped and has no effect.  Tail wagging the dog.  For earthquakes and volcanoes, this means that jumping up and down does nothing.  The carbon effect is swamped by many things.

Saturday, May 4, 2019

Our winter in review

Yeah, officially Summer (or maybe Spring) is here because the Arctic ice volume is finally turning down.

We won't hit last year, because, surprise, this winter was warmer than the last.  We had a small El Nino in December.  This made our number of Degree Days higher than last year, and is the main reason that natural gas tanked.  Now, storage is way up, and there's no hope for Oklahoma earthquakes this year.  We can only hope for next year.  *

With ocean currents, the only interesting thing is the strength of the Arctic current coming down from Greenland.

This current made its appearance right after the big 2016-7 El Nino collapsed.  You would think it would be seasonal, but it pumps strong all year.  I have to conclude it is a constricted outlet.  As well, I don't see an inlet, but the current maps don't work in the Arctic.

The warmies were fooled by the overlay of the peaks for both major ocean cycles.  That means our plunge will be something fearsome to behold.  All the press is still going on about the Arctic melting, from field studies taken 5 years ago.  Oh well.

*I've tied those earthquakes to fresh water natgas fracking.

ha ha.

Thursday, May 2, 2019

UK to be Alberta

I get this question a lot:  Why, Mr. Fish, do you pick on the UK so much?  I pick on them because English Arts Majors were the driving force of the whole carbon thing.  It is appropriate that they freeze more than anyone, except maybe Alberta, because they are boring.  :)

Last time I said that Alberta was paying the price to melt the Arctic ice, while we happy Sixes basked in warm Gulf air.  However, this week, the plume winds have reversed and the UK gets the exhaust from Arctic melting.  The Arctic has warmed up to -16C, and the ice starts to suck up huge amounts of heat energy. 

So you can see the plume air is going up Hudson Bay and swooping down on the UK.  Going over the ice probably knocks down the air temp by 10C.  Neat. 

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Happy May Day!

Ah, but it's wonderful.  My sewer standpipe is down, and it's cold outside.

Arctic temperatures have finally reached the tipping point of -20C.  The Arctic ice volume should be turning like every other year, yet it is not.

The ice volume continues to rise.  Had this been an Actual Ice Advance Emergency, we would see that rising line continue straight forever.  However, I'm sure it will go down eventually.

Some of us have warmth in the forecast, so this weekend I am doing the final rise on the greenhouse and planting the tomatoes.

Unfortunately, most of Canada has winter coming down on them, but somebody has to help the Arctic melt.  Sucks to be you, Canada.  We have the Gulf of Mexico.

And we must give a cheer to the UK.

I love those guys!

ps.  all the little kids dancing around the maypole, having snowball fights....

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Pandora's Endless Amusement

So, Pandora was cursed to be always right in her predictions, but that nobody would believe her.  Her main curse was that she was empathetic and cared about people.

"Och!  I told him not to walk into the lion's den!  What now for his wee babes?  I am so cursed."

But honestly, was she really cursed?  Could she change her attitude?  "I told them not to strap on those huge engines to a tiny plane.  Stupid twats."

So she would laugh her head off.

For a while I felt the same as Old Pandora in the old company.  You apply a little physics, and long odds, and you are always right.  However, I am never right when it comes to timing.

I thought that when it was many times colder than expected, that the ice age was coming down on us, then they wouldn't have enough natural gas and US prices would zoom up.

Now, it is very cold, and they have run out of storage, and still the prices don't go up.  Amazing, but maybe next year.

It's the same with earthquake prediction.  You can have a correct prediction, but if it isn't timed to the day, it's useless.  Ah, but when it does come, you can laugh.  :)

Citizens of Toronto Rise Up!

Or your sewer will rise up on you.

I'm starting my new campaign for the City.  I'll soon have a web site, posters and everything.  The text will go like this:

The City has an aging infrastructure.  Yet, in every street huge houses go up.  Is it benign?  No, the construction pours a lot of silt into the sewers and makes demands on the water mains.  Our water mains are being replaced.

On every street where they are getting a new water main, they advertise that you can get an engineering assessment.  This is mainly to cover their position if you claim new cracks in your driveway.  Make your own opinion on this, I didn't do it.  That's because damage from a water main installation is a million to one.

But what do they leave out in an engineering assessment?  The sewer!  It's full of silt and the compaction for the water main loosens it up, where it slides down the street.  There, it randomly clinches up and floods the nearby houses with sewage.  You don't hear about this, because they don't tell you.  You don't need a big rain, or a history of backups.  Random!  Poof!  No backup valve will save you because you flush right into your basement.

Cannons cannot breach Toronto Water.  If you get the notice that they are putting in a new water main, demand that they get engineering clearance for the sewer.  Ask early, ask often.  Go to the mayor.  Chain yourself to their trucks.  The alternative is a house full of sewage.

yada yada

The full wiki site will have links to the behaviour of silt, since Toronto Water doesn't seem to have engineers.

ps.  if the campaign leaks out internationally, then Toronto gets another black eye.  The UK Sun headlines will be:


PPS.  put this on FB.  If you know anybody in the city, warn them.  There is still time to clean out our street's main sewer and then I'll shut up.  :)

epilogue - nobody was scared with this.  They are going after the main sewer in a couple of weeks.  I suppose the constrictions will hit more people.  Everybody with a new watermain coming in will have to fend for themselves.  This notice will just server to increase the City's liability.

Since any more effort will be actual work, which I don't do, I won't go any further.
Good afternoon,

Staff have clarified for me that a proper cleanout is a requirement for staff be able to inspect the sewer service line. As the sewer line is not currently blocked and is functional the camera inspection will be scheduled within the next week or two.


ps.  May 7, 2019.  I have sent this to the Mayor, requesting the the main sewer cleanout be advanced.  No answer yet.  Next will be Doug Ford.

ps2 - May 8.  Apparently it is standard practice for a new monster house to throw tons of dirt down the sewer, the city makes a lot of money, but never cleans the sewer.

Monday, April 29, 2019

Proper selfies in disaster zones

A good selfie is to jump up and down on the sandbags.  They can collapse, causing more chances for selfies.  In post-earthquake zones you must pretend to hold up a tilted wall, and maybe include a fake leg sticking out.  In an area attacked by polar bears, you must hold up a fish.  Always wear a bright shirt and get the victims crawling in the mud behind you.

But for a real selfie, you must get a selfie drone for these occasions.

I just got one of these for my Seycelles trip and it is every bit as good as the $1200 one.  Get extra batteries.  Disasters in 4K!  Think of the hits!  You can get a selfie with all the complainers.

And you really have to get going with this.  I was going to the tribes of Ethiopia and they are starting to shoot selfie takers, so I can't go.  Always find a new place.

Ocean currents continue to confirm ice age

The greatest fun now is to observe how the warmies are trying to save their cold skins.  A huge spring run-off caused by snow that nobody measures any more.  It's 'climate change'.

For the recent warming cycle, I kept complaining how we didn't get a Spring any more.  I was using the furnace and the next day I had to use the air conditioning.  Now we have a very cold and long spring.  Ah, be careful what you wish for.

Here are the currents of the Atlantic.  The ocean temp maps still show a huge warm spot to the south, and I thought it was ending.  Nope.  The current to the south has become stronger, and the Gulf of Mexico is cold.

Any forecast for warmth came from the potential El Nino.  It has pooped out.  No warmth for us.  There is not a speck of reversal in these currents.

The Arctic ice volume is still rising, which is amazing.  All the temps over there are below -18 C, which is when salt water starts coughing up fresh water ice crystals.  The left-over saline comes down to hit the Gulf Stream, and this current is stronger than ever.  Poor UK.

ps.  Apr 29, 2018.  Big nasty snowstorm in Toronto.  The ice pellets tried to rip off my face.  blah.

pps.  this has become a popular article.  Soon, the warmies are going to have to say "There is no coming ice age."  That'll be fun.

Friday, April 26, 2019

Sad loss of fordism

Sad for the people, sad for ford going for climate change.  Could the flooding be due to a humongous snow pack?  Well, I won't count on him for anything intelligent.  :)

We are going back to 1800 winters.  Can't wait for next year.

ps.  the Gulf of Mexico is drained of heat, the Pacific plumes aren't doing much, so we are in for a default 1800 Spring.  yuck.

pps.  the new normal of 10 foot snow depths will continue to cause classic flooding.  Our lake is sloshing the ice back and forth, damaging docks.

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Arctic Ice Warming Reaches New Record

Actually, a record in the opposite direction.

But today, I wish to announce a great milestone in the reverse melting of the Arctic.

The black line has hit 2015, and will soon overtake 2018, the current modern record.  The Arctic temps are cold, and the line will continue flat and make a later turn than the earlier records.  It should hit well into the 2000 band.  Next year will go over the band.

This reverse melting will cost us trillions in extra snow shoveling on our driveways.  Women should not have children for fear of slipping on the ice. 

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Boeing, Tesla, SpaceX, Samsung

I am detecting a reckless disregard for long odds.  Of course, this trend has been going on for a long time, but we are now seeing the fruits of stupidity.

It works like this.  You can be adventurous, take ridiculous risks, and be absolutely fine for small batches, or infrequent climbing of dangerous mountains.  Why wear avalanche beacons?  

We call these people, who beat the odds, heroes.  Muskie took high risks and he's rich enough to ignore demands to shut up on twits.  So, in their designs, they beat the competition by living with 1 in 1000 of a big disaster.  Samsung put out a folding design without any dust protection.  Yeah, what an innovation!

Everything is fine and dandy until you climb your one thousandth mountain.  Or you produce giant lithium batteries at a huge scale.  How about packing a crew capsule with giant rocket engines?  This is such fun.  Boeing drove down the odds to one in 10,000, but produced thousands of planes.

So now we have planes that crash, cars that explode, etc.  All because they were successful with an aggressive design and then produced in volume.

These people all need an adult in the room who says "Alright, that's good to get the world's attention, now we have to scale up.".

Expect more of these disasters.

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Five Testable Hypotheses of Carbon Warming - Part 3

Hypothesis #4

Carbon dioxide is considered to be well-mixed in the atmosphere, which is somewhat ironic.  Nevertheless, the reference measurement in Hawaii is considered good for the whole world.

Given a uniform thermal blanket, the hypothesis is that global warming should be uniform.  There is no mechanism for hot and cold zones.

This hypothesis fails with the satellite trends.

This is the trend map since 1979, expressed as a rise of C deg per decade.  All the trend is in the northern hemisphere.  The trend at the South Pole is zero.  This hypothesis is dead.

Hypothesis #5

blah, can't think of one.

Any suggestions appreciated.


Five Testable Hypotheses of Carbon Warming - Part 2

Hypothesis #2

Carbon dioxide acts as an opaque thermal blanket on the Earth.  Even nasa now says that satellite global temperatures are accurate.  The satellites measure the same infrared band that is said to be blocked.  Therefore, a test will be to see if the calibration curve has drifted in accordance with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The satellite measurements are now the 'gold standard' of the thermal apocalypse.  Our 'boiling alive' has to show in these measurements.  The calibration curve has to change with increasing carbon.  Yet, there is no drift in the calibration that I have heard of.  If there was a drift, you'd be sure to hear of it.  The silence is deafening. 

Hypothesis #3

With a constant heat input to the Earth, the act of piling on more insulation in the form of carbon dioxide must result in a monotonic increase in temperature.  There can be no 'flat zones' or, heaven forbid, a decrease in global temperatures.

Taking out the El Ninos, we're talking flat as a board, and recently we've been going down.  The 0.75 C increase since 1980 is nowhere near the famous 'models' that are showing a rate 5 times this.

--to be continued.

Five Testable Hypotheses of Carbon Warming - Part 1

Main Hypothesis:  Carbon Dioxide acts as a thermal blanket on the Earth, causing significant warming to the point of our destruction.

This hypothesis is untestable, and has been supported only by the rising temperatures.  The 'story' is that this happens on other planets as a 'greenhouse gas'.  Early work in the laboratory showed that carbon absorbs and emits a notch of the infrared spectrum and this has been worked up with a mechanism that has not been tested in the field.

nasa's big crime is not coming up with a silly story, but actively ignoring simple tests.

Hypothesis One:  Carbon Dioxide acts as a greenhouse gas.  In other words, more carbon interferes with the normal release of heat energy to outer space.

This has been tested with weather balloons.  There is no evidence of a greenhouse gas working, and the 'lapse rate' or decrease of temperature with height is totally determined by convection.

However, it appears that this bit of evidence is easily ignored.  Why?  Because it is not direct.  The direct way is to actually measure the amount of interference.  This can be easily done with lasers on a balloon.  Nasa actually mounted lasers on a balloon, but aimed them all up, to study upper convection.

The actual concentration of carbon dioxide varies with time over the whole world.  The interference can be directly measured, and a value assigned to the 'Carbon Coefficient'.

-to be continued (I don't think I have 5 yet)  :)

Saturday, April 20, 2019

New Climate Models Have Us Getting Even Hotter


A host of global climate models developed for the United Nations's next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend: They are running hotter than they have in the past. In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" has come in at 5°C or warmer. Many scientists, including the model developers, are doubtful this increased warming is likely to be real. Over the next year, they will be comparing notes on what happened in their models, which in many cases simulate the Earth system better than ever before. It's also possible that climate sensitivities from models will be de-emphasized in the next U.N. climate assessment, further replaced instead by restraints from the ancient climate and modern observations.

Yeah, they just throw in the old factor for carbon, and it just keeps getting hotter and hotter.  But actual temperatures are colder and colder.  What to do, what to do?

As I have said before, you can pick three main numbers for the carbon effect:

High:  Based on the early 2000 temp rise.  Gives us a world of scorched deserts in 10 years.  Mad Max!

Medium:  Canada gets warm...Yeah!

Zero:  That's what I'm saying, and it's miserably cold.  Yuck.

When they have a problem with the models, they could say "Back to the drawing board."  But, no.  Because nasa knows that a tiny bit of physics would come out with a big zero.  As well, their ozone thing is a big zero.  A Grand Stupidity, and it is funny.

ps.  revenge of the rain.  My sewer level is 3 inches below the floor.  Hope it stays there.  I used a rotorooter right to the street.  Thank goodness we are on the top of the hill.

pps.  yuck, all the rain and installing a new water main has collapsed the sewer on the street.  Our level is still holding, but the Easter party may have to be moved to another house.

Friday, April 19, 2019

The Pacific Ocean

All our North American weather comes from the Pacific Ocean.  It can give huge El Nino's that spike up global temperatures.  I always propose that it can turn off the heat, as well.

Our funny weather lately, of a day of warmth, then a month of cold has been set up by that darn ocean.

It has a big dip in the temps, with a dragon out on the west.  I'm talking about the major warm line.

And it is sending out plumes that become detached and drift straight east.

We they hit us, they slash down, both alternately bring up Gulf warm air, and shooting down cold air.

Horrible.  Look at all that cold air coming down on us.  In go the tomato plants again!

ps.  that 'dragon head' in the Pacific is a weak El Nino.  It will knock up the global temps a little bit.  The ENSO ONI index is showing red, at a small fraction of the 2016-17 El Nino.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

Cold cold cold

Ocean temperatures

The new ocean current maps still show a strong flow to the north at South America, but it has no heat energy.  You must combine flow with temperature, (including total volume) to get heat flow.  That keeps us warm up North.

But the flow breaking south at the nose of Brazil is carrying all the heat.  Look at the horrible cold of the North Atlantic.  That used to be moderated by the Gulf Stream.  That means we all have our short warm periods, and then lots of cold.  The warmies cheer during our one day of warmth and then shut up for the rest of the month.  Our heating 'degree days' are probably a record.

Our daily ice volume chart shows that the black line is going straight when it should be curving down (ice melting).  The ice is not melting.

I think it is going to crash into the average band and poke through to the other side.  To heck with all those old 'ice is melting' articles.  This is now.

ps.  the UK is going to get hit with a plume that has gone through the Arctic.  Not in their weather forecast yet.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

NASA confirms that satellite temperatures are good


Yeah, another confirmation that the satellite global temps are real.  But what's this?  They cut it off 2 years ago.

They cut off the study, and the media comments at the top of the El Nino.  Thus, we are dying of heat.  What about now? 

So, the sat data is good when it conforms to their story, but not when it doesn't.  :)

And even that trend in the sat data is nowhere near the nasa projections of death.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Duluth and Buffalo are climate refuges


Toronto has to join that party.  Climate Refuge.  That'll fill the empty spots from the housing money laundry.

Ice and snow are the new attractions.  Forget that July has stagnant air that can cook an egg by tossing it.  My 50's and 70's memories are about frying eggs on the pavement.

But really, Duluth?  We offer to sell Winnipeg to any all comers.  :)

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Arctic ice volume every day

This is like watching the horse races.  Will your horse take the lead?

I've been waiting every month for the Arctic ice volume, and this is EVERY DAY!  Right now the volume is ticking a bit higher.  Will it hit the old band?

I'm tired of all those 'Arctic Melting' articles from 3 years ago.  Get with the times, bro!  Here and now.  We are freezing, the Arctic is at -30 and the ice volume is going to break new records.  Take that CBC!

Too much excitement.  Will that infinitely tiny tick at the end continue?  Is there day trading in ice volume?  Yeah.

I'll gladly pay the carbon tax, just to watch justin fall into a big ice crevasse (with a rope).  Neato.