Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Five Testable Hypotheses of Carbon Warming - Part 3

Hypothesis #4

Carbon dioxide is considered to be well-mixed in the atmosphere, which is somewhat ironic.  Nevertheless, the reference measurement in Hawaii is considered good for the whole world.

Given a uniform thermal blanket, the hypothesis is that global warming should be uniform.  There is no mechanism for hot and cold zones.

This hypothesis fails with the satellite trends.



This is the trend map since 1979, expressed as a rise of C deg per decade.  All the trend is in the northern hemisphere.  The trend at the South Pole is zero.  This hypothesis is dead.

Hypothesis #5

blah, can't think of one.

Any suggestions appreciated.

End.

Five Testable Hypotheses of Carbon Warming - Part 2

Hypothesis #2

Carbon dioxide acts as an opaque thermal blanket on the Earth.  Even nasa now says that satellite global temperatures are accurate.  The satellites measure the same infrared band that is said to be blocked.  Therefore, a test will be to see if the calibration curve has drifted in accordance with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The satellite measurements are now the 'gold standard' of the thermal apocalypse.  Our 'boiling alive' has to show in these measurements.  The calibration curve has to change with increasing carbon.  Yet, there is no drift in the calibration that I have heard of.  If there was a drift, you'd be sure to hear of it.  The silence is deafening. 


Hypothesis #3

With a constant heat input to the Earth, the act of piling on more insulation in the form of carbon dioxide must result in a monotonic increase in temperature.  There can be no 'flat zones' or, heaven forbid, a decrease in global temperatures.


Taking out the El Ninos, we're talking flat as a board, and recently we've been going down.  The 0.75 C increase since 1980 is nowhere near the famous 'models' that are showing a rate 5 times this.


--to be continued.


Five Testable Hypotheses of Carbon Warming - Part 1

Main Hypothesis:  Carbon Dioxide acts as a thermal blanket on the Earth, causing significant warming to the point of our destruction.

This hypothesis is untestable, and has been supported only by the rising temperatures.  The 'story' is that this happens on other planets as a 'greenhouse gas'.  Early work in the laboratory showed that carbon absorbs and emits a notch of the infrared spectrum and this has been worked up with a mechanism that has not been tested in the field.

nasa's big crime is not coming up with a silly story, but actively ignoring simple tests.

Hypothesis One:  Carbon Dioxide acts as a greenhouse gas.  In other words, more carbon interferes with the normal release of heat energy to outer space.

This has been tested with weather balloons.  There is no evidence of a greenhouse gas working, and the 'lapse rate' or decrease of temperature with height is totally determined by convection.

However, it appears that this bit of evidence is easily ignored.  Why?  Because it is not direct.  The direct way is to actually measure the amount of interference.  This can be easily done with lasers on a balloon.  Nasa actually mounted lasers on a balloon, but aimed them all up, to study upper convection.

The actual concentration of carbon dioxide varies with time over the whole world.  The interference can be directly measured, and a value assigned to the 'Carbon Coefficient'.

-to be continued (I don't think I have 5 yet)  :)


Saturday, April 20, 2019

New Climate Models Have Us Getting Even Hotter

Reference

Summary
A host of global climate models developed for the United Nations's next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend: They are running hotter than they have in the past. In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" has come in at 5°C or warmer. Many scientists, including the model developers, are doubtful this increased warming is likely to be real. Over the next year, they will be comparing notes on what happened in their models, which in many cases simulate the Earth system better than ever before. It's also possible that climate sensitivities from models will be de-emphasized in the next U.N. climate assessment, further replaced instead by restraints from the ancient climate and modern observations.

Yeah, they just throw in the old factor for carbon, and it just keeps getting hotter and hotter.  But actual temperatures are colder and colder.  What to do, what to do?

As I have said before, you can pick three main numbers for the carbon effect:

High:  Based on the early 2000 temp rise.  Gives us a world of scorched deserts in 10 years.  Mad Max!

Medium:  Canada gets warm...Yeah!


Zero:  That's what I'm saying, and it's miserably cold.  Yuck.


When they have a problem with the models, they could say "Back to the drawing board."  But, no.  Because nasa knows that a tiny bit of physics would come out with a big zero.  As well, their ozone thing is a big zero.  A Grand Stupidity, and it is funny.

ps.  revenge of the rain.  My sewer level is 3 inches below the floor.  Hope it stays there.  I used a rotorooter right to the street.  Thank goodness we are on the top of the hill.

pps.  yuck, all the rain and installing a new water main has collapsed the sewer on the street.  Our level is still holding, but the Easter party may have to be moved to another house.


Friday, April 19, 2019

The Pacific Ocean

All our North American weather comes from the Pacific Ocean.  It can give huge El Nino's that spike up global temperatures.  I always propose that it can turn off the heat, as well.

Our funny weather lately, of a day of warmth, then a month of cold has been set up by that darn ocean.


It has a big dip in the temps, with a dragon out on the west.  I'm talking about the major warm line.

And it is sending out plumes that become detached and drift straight east.


We they hit us, they slash down, both alternately bring up Gulf warm air, and shooting down cold air.



Horrible.  Look at all that cold air coming down on us.  In go the tomato plants again!

ps.  that 'dragon head' in the Pacific is a weak El Nino.  It will knock up the global temps a little bit.  The ENSO ONI index is showing red, at a small fraction of the 2016-17 El Nino.


Thursday, April 18, 2019

Cold cold cold


Ocean temperatures


The new ocean current maps still show a strong flow to the north at South America, but it has no heat energy.  You must combine flow with temperature, (including total volume) to get heat flow.  That keeps us warm up North.

But the flow breaking south at the nose of Brazil is carrying all the heat.  Look at the horrible cold of the North Atlantic.  That used to be moderated by the Gulf Stream.  That means we all have our short warm periods, and then lots of cold.  The warmies cheer during our one day of warmth and then shut up for the rest of the month.  Our heating 'degree days' are probably a record.



Our daily ice volume chart shows that the black line is going straight when it should be curving down (ice melting).  The ice is not melting.

I think it is going to crash into the average band and poke through to the other side.  To heck with all those old 'ice is melting' articles.  This is now.

ps.  the UK is going to get hit with a plume that has gone through the Arctic.  Not in their weather forecast yet.


Wednesday, April 17, 2019

NASA confirms that satellite temperatures are good

Reference


Yeah, another confirmation that the satellite global temps are real.  But what's this?  They cut it off 2 years ago.


They cut off the study, and the media comments at the top of the El Nino.  Thus, we are dying of heat.  What about now? 

So, the sat data is good when it conforms to their story, but not when it doesn't.  :)

And even that trend in the sat data is nowhere near the nasa projections of death.


Monday, April 15, 2019

Duluth and Buffalo are climate refuges

Reference


Toronto has to join that party.  Climate Refuge.  That'll fill the empty spots from the housing money laundry.


Ice and snow are the new attractions.  Forget that July has stagnant air that can cook an egg by tossing it.  My 50's and 70's memories are about frying eggs on the pavement.

But really, Duluth?  We offer to sell Winnipeg to any all comers.  :)


Sunday, April 14, 2019

Arctic ice volume every day

This is like watching the horse races.  Will your horse take the lead?


I've been waiting every month for the Arctic ice volume, and this is EVERY DAY!  Right now the volume is ticking a bit higher.  Will it hit the old band?

I'm tired of all those 'Arctic Melting' articles from 3 years ago.  Get with the times, bro!  Here and now.  We are freezing, the Arctic is at -30 and the ice volume is going to break new records.  Take that CBC!

Too much excitement.  Will that infinitely tiny tick at the end continue?  Is there day trading in ice volume?  Yeah.

I'll gladly pay the carbon tax, just to watch justin fall into a big ice crevasse (with a rope).  Neato.


Saturday, April 13, 2019

Slashing plumes continue our weather pattern

Warm, then cold, warm, then cold.  blah blah.


That bomb cyclone went over Toronto, giving us 10 minutes of rain.  neat.  Now, the slashing plumes are raising Gulf heat and we are warm again.  I can finish the dirt for the garden.

ps.  the really old guy up the street, that my dog is in love with, just gave me a 1977 Italian red wine, that's lost an inch from the top.  I can't wait to get my first whiff of deadly cork fungus.  You have to pay a lot of money for that.  :)


Friday, April 12, 2019

With a rough resolution, we're at the warmest in 10,000 years

Reference



OMG, i wasn't going to do stupid any more.  I read the whole paper.  If you have a very crude measurement of temperature, then we are at the warmest in 10,000 years.  That's because you can't see the other warming periods.  10,000 years ago we had kilometres of ice on this. 

Anyway, the samples were taken in 2013 when the Arctic was warm.  Not now. 

I think I'll deep-breathe for a while.


Thursday, April 11, 2019

Happy Bomb Cyclone Day



This is due to unbelievable cold coming down on us.  However, I'm waiting for the warmie explanation. 

Bomb Cyclone and I'm stuck in my driveway.  Great correlation.  :)


Ha. 


Wednesday, April 10, 2019

1816 -- the year without summer

Reference


When Ottawa says they are breaking records for snow, they aren't breaking this record.

The world the Selkirk settlers knew was a cooler one than our own. They were living in the Little Ice Age, the interval between the 1450 and 1850 when global temperatures were between 1.0 and 2.0°c cooler than they are now. Within that, the settlers were living in what some climatologists say was a cooling trend between 1809 and 1820. And in the middle of that came the 1815 eruption of Tambora. For settlers living on the edge of existence on the central North American plains, its effects were very nearly the last straw.

I enjoy a legitimate reference to the little ice age, which I am calling a major ice age, as opposed to the 20 year cycle that we are now going into.  A major ice age does not go to a major ice advance because the land is still under isostatic depression from the last ice advance.  It takes about 10,000 years for things to pop up again for more ice.

But I have no context with the ocean currents, etc.  What were they doing during the little ice age.  Was the warm-up since 1850 really due to James Watt and the steam engine?  That's what our warmie friends would have us believe.

We can always look forward to 2 weeks in July, and then the snow starts in August.  :)


Continued Cold



Yuck, at least the garden soil became workable, so I have been busy.  I took the tomatoes out for the day, but now they are back under the lights for the next week.  I was going to stay away until I read something intelligent in the news, but I realize this isn't going to happen soon.

The tropical plumes have gone back to a depressing cold pattern.  They will scoop out the very cold Arctic air down upon us.  Meanwhile, the press is hitting us with endless stories on how all the ice is melting.

The ocean temperatures look bad.  The Gulf of Mexico has become colder and the Atlantic is still shoving all the heat down south.  The Pacific has a big dip in the middle which is why our plumes are going crazy.  We are constantly getting nice Siberian air.  I also just got over a big cold.

I hate being right when it is so cold.  Perhaps it is best that everybody stays indoors and reads all the nice articles on how warm it is.  :)


Sunday, April 7, 2019

Bye for now, It's just too much

I find if I'm getting snarky about too much stupidity, then I should just give up for a while.  There is nothing major happening, so I can take a break.  Hopefully, Spring will come.  Here are my predictions:

Boeing will get the max back.  They'll add another sensor, thus putting a crash at 1 in 100,000, well below 1 in 10 million.  The trumpies will approve it.  I'll fly in one for my vacation.

Summer will come and be very hot.  Warmies will rejoice.

Great stupidities will assail us every day, but nobody will comment on them.

Nobody will ever look at atmospheric physics.

:)


English Major 'Scientists' in for a surprise

Reference


What could go wrong?  Pack a ship of fools with English Major Climate Scientists, and observe the melting Arctic ice pack.  Did anybody tell them that Arctic ice is coming back with a vengeance?  Did they listen to those nasa guys?  How's the ship with 3 m ice? 

This is going to be fun.  They are going to drift into 3 m ice and never get out.  If it doesn't crack in half, that ship is going to drift around for 20 years as a testament to spurious correlation.  However, I give it 90% that wiser heads (where?) will prevail and the whole thing cancelled.

ps.  Okay, Canada will let in a Russian nuclear ice breaker that can do 5 m ice, but can only reach the North Pole in August.  Fine, it can get out.

Almost 5 m, maybe next year.  I'm sure this ship is only 2 m.


Ice extent is biggest in years.


Tropical plumes may be giving us Spring


The plumes are in another massive change.  There is a big reversal in the UK giving them the 'Beast from the East' again.  But for us, they are coming straight in over California.  I have hope now that we can change out of the snowtires.  I am now digging in the garden. 


Friday, April 5, 2019

Big dieselgaters charged with collusion to be stupid

Reference


This is quite interesting.  Normally, collusion is fixing prices at too high.  The 'Stupidity Defence' always works here.  Now they are charged with being too slow and stupid to put in extra diesel cleaners.  Probably because that added extra carbon dioxide.  It's like a vast ocean of stupidity.

EU stupidity was forcing the carbon issue.  I don't think this whole thing can get far in the courts, but you never know how stupid they are....

ps.  I have to apologize to Penny.  I said there were never any conspiracies, only stupidity, and here we have Conspiracy to Commit Stupidity.  I am flabberghasted.


Flushable Wipes Scandal

Reference


OMG, this is a classic case of somebody wanting 10 minutes of fame.  I've been in the standards business for years, and this is not how you do it.  You need a bit of physics, and that involves the actual material properties.  All this tv coverage earned me 10 minutes of haranguing from the wife on that I should get rid of my wonderful Cottonelle wipes from Costco.

No way!  So I conducted my own test.  3 minutes in a jar, heavily shaken.  Of course, the stuff doesn't dissolve, neither does my regular product for the toilet.  But the tensile strength is nearly zero.  One wipe will easily go through the pipes and will shred on a screen.  So, let's plot tensile strength as a function of time in water.  My high-fibre diet does make something that plugs the pipes sometimes.  :)

The money is made in creating unnecessary anxiety.  OMG, I'm destroying the world!  These people are mixing in stuff that doesn't meet standards.  Look at the wet strength of that thing she is holding.  There are standards, and there are products that meet those standards.  Let the argument be that the standards aren't good enough.  Let there be a standards body and stamp.

ps.  ok, without any physics, their position is that the wet strength should become zero almost instantly.  This is an absolutist thing.  Obviously, there is a number above zero that is acceptable, but then they say that 'not zero' provides a scaffolding for other horrible stuff like fat-bergs, and other unflushables.

Boeing -- Unsafe at Any Speed

Reference



Oh man, this guy should be fishing and not writing anything....   He echoes my points that the plane is unsafe at any speed and they just slapped on a software bandaid.  Oh well, the US has fun suing everybody and their dog.

A single sensor will fail at one in 10,000 per year, per device.  This is the best that engineering can do.  That's why you lay on other independent systems.  A commercial airline should be at 1 in 10 million.

ps.  It's ironic that in Nader's time, the big lawsuit awards came from a 'smoking gun', which is where some bright guy said, if you don't pay an extra 10 bucks, a lot of people will be killed.  Because of Nader, the companies all got rid of those guys.  Did you see any in VW?  Now they are all trumps, saying anything that sounds good.  :)

pps.  Ralph Killed the Smoking Gun


Global Temperatures Up

This is just killing me. Having suffered such a horrible winter, and seeing the Arctic ice volume up, I expected global temps to be down.

But the last two months have been up.  Mind you it is still flat as a board, and so far below the warmie projections as to be under water.  We must be having another micro El Nino that I didn't see.

This map offers some explanation.


This are the March temps over the globe.  Look who's horribly cold, so don't change your snowtires yet.


I'm blaming the plumes.  They were weird this year, but there were a lot of them.  They zoomed across the Pacific, dove down for Toronto, and went up again for the UK.  So, some people had it warm.

The UK is having a late winter.


ps.  doesn't the temp curve look exactly like the Toronto housing market.  Perhaps there is a correlation and I can make some money....

pps.  the high plume over the UK is now whirling around the Arctic and will soon descend on us.

last word:  OMG, I just realized the cold spot is the exact same shape as the Laurentide ice sheet.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Fish natural gas prediction totally wrong


There it is.  The natgas storage draw is starting to turn, even though we've got a few more cold blasts coming.  The price of natgas is crawling on the bottom, and this latest storage report won't do anything there.  You should have not listened to me and bought bitcoin.  It's being manipulated right now and is showing a 'dead cat bounce'. 

ps.  I always glory in my wrong predictions, it keeps the nasties off my back.


Toronto housing market is soggy


I think houses are selling if the owners take the 20% haircut.  We've had quite a few houses selling recently, and these were long-term owners.  What's a little off when the price has gone up by many factors?

Our local speculators have gone back on the market with their peak prices, or much more than peak.  My buddy the lawyer is busy with defaulted sales, soon there will be walk-aways.  I'm always amazed how long the speculators can hold, must be no other place to put the laundry money.

Anyway, I always thought that a flat line was unstable, it either has to go up or down.  Another year of this and I will be proven wrong.  :)

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Another fine job without physics

Reference




This was a totally political job.  "Let's place a turbine on the most vicious current-raked silt bottom we can find."  "Who needs that expensive physics?"

Suddenly it stops turning.  What sea monster is in it's jaws?  Or is it just buried in silt.  The only barge big enough is bankrupt, as well.  Even if they got the barge, I'll bet they can't pull it out of the mud.  Where are the underwater pictures?  Is the current too strong for a robot?  :)

ps.  that was my problem in the old company.  This sort of thing was my job.  I would have said "Forget it."  and then would have been blamed for being too grouchy.  :)

pps.  This is like the offshore of Pickering.  The silt moves in giant dunes, like on the Sahara.  If you just checked one thing, then you could anchor it on clean rock.  However, it's coming for you, like giant sand worms.  They'll be lucky if they even find it.

more:  Just on general geotechnical engineering.  The installation of drains and waterstops must be continually inspected.  The place will rust out in 10 years.


Another indication on why I will never work again (as if I wanted to).  I would have insisted on extra testing and a more fail-proof waterstop system, thus adding to the cost.  The Niagara Tunnel to Nowhere has no water problem, since it is flooded and sealed up.  :) It might be having a collapse problem, but we'll never know.

Monday, April 1, 2019

April Fool! Ice on the ground, ice in the Arctic


The Arctic ice volume is still cruising along at 2015.  Since it is still 30 below up there, I expect it to zoom to higher levels in the next month or two.  I'm now waiting for the global temperatures, and I expect a drop.

ps.  no forecasts for me.  My favourite tropical plume site is down.

pps. ooh blessed goodness, the plumes are going straight up, and Siberian air is circling and coming down on us.  Were we expecting warm weather, the Pacific plume would be coming straight in over Callie.  We will live with our default, stagnant air weather, which sucks.