Saturday, April 20, 2019

New Climate Models Have Us Getting Even Hotter


A host of global climate models developed for the United Nations's next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend: They are running hotter than they have in the past. In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" has come in at 5°C or warmer. Many scientists, including the model developers, are doubtful this increased warming is likely to be real. Over the next year, they will be comparing notes on what happened in their models, which in many cases simulate the Earth system better than ever before. It's also possible that climate sensitivities from models will be de-emphasized in the next U.N. climate assessment, further replaced instead by restraints from the ancient climate and modern observations.

Yeah, they just throw in the old factor for carbon, and it just keeps getting hotter and hotter.  But actual temperatures are colder and colder.  What to do, what to do?

As I have said before, you can pick three main numbers for the carbon effect:

High:  Based on the early 2000 temp rise.  Gives us a world of scorched deserts in 10 years.  Mad Max!

Medium:  Canada gets warm...Yeah!

Zero:  That's what I'm saying, and it's miserably cold.  Yuck.

When they have a problem with the models, they could say "Back to the drawing board."  But, no.  Because nasa knows that a tiny bit of physics would come out with a big zero.  As well, their ozone thing is a big zero.  A Grand Stupidity, and it is funny.

ps.  revenge of the rain.  My sewer level is 3 inches below the floor.  Hope it stays there.  I used a rotorooter right to the street.  Thank goodness we are on the top of the hill.

pps.  yuck, all the rain and installing a new water main has collapsed the sewer on the street.  Our level is still holding, but the Easter party may have to be moved to another house.

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