Thursday, February 27, 2014

Feb 13, Lake Ontario Felt earthquake M3.1

I don't know where I was that day,  but I just read a comment that somebody felt it in Toronto in their swamp home.  I told them to get earthquake insurance.  Really, if you are feeling these things, you are in more danger than the nuclear plant.

This on the second megathrust in the middle of the lake, the one I didn't know about for a while.  I always thought that Hamilton was the main threat.  Now, a 7 could happen along this just as easy.  Look at my previous post for reference.

They can run, but they can't hide.

Ps.  Oh yeah, I reported it in Bizarre, based on US data.  The Canadian data took forever, and this is the first time I've seen it.  Expect that sort of thing for a real earthquake.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Oklahoma M3.2 and M3.4 earthquakes

These earthquakes are really nothing.  Today, kiddies, we are looking at the lines which the earthquakes are starting to define.  As we get more quakes, the lines will get stronger, just like the lines under North America's largest nuclear plant.  :)  We must also look at how the lines match the general terrain.  This is no accident, as you can trace the megathrusts by terrain lines for a very long way into the States.  There are thousands of feet of sedimentary rock draping this Precambrian, what is the physics?

First off, the actual surface of the Precambrian, before the shallow seas, was very rugged, perhaps like the Grand Canyon today.  It is a fallacy that it was a smooth billiard table.  The sediments had to drape over this.  Second, is the way that the sediments consolidated and eventually turned into rock.  All consolidating clays need a drain.  The efficiency of this drain varied over the surface of the basement.  All of this would end up propagating faults and topography through the sediments.  You can see this in seismic sections, and it would be glaringly obvious if anybody could kick the oil companies down in this neck of the woods.

So, wait another year or two for the lines to harden up, and you will see them align with topography.

Update1:  Another M3.4 just came in.

Update2:  M3.7 on the end of the shear wing.

Re-affirming the Darlington Seismic Basis

They are completely replacing the innards of Darlington.  This came much earlier than anybody thought mainly because of the Water Laser Effect, which shook the bejeeesus out of the place.  They smoothed the water flow with more vanes on the pumps, but that just reduced the effect from Terrifying to Terrible.

It is a great example of cravenosity (sic) that the regulators allow this to go ahead without re-evaluating the seismic basis of the plant.  After all, it's been like 40 years when we first started on defining it.  Look what's happened since:

We have clearly defined megathrusts right under the plant.  And I was the one who proved that the Pickering Fault Doesn't Exist.  That bit of brilliance put me out of a job.  :)  But now we have bigger and nastier faults.  I would say the main seismic hazard has gone up a factor of 10 from the old 5% of g.  We are looking at an easy M6 right under the plant, and an M7 out in Lake Ontario.  All at the very low probability of 10-4, and it goes up steeply at 10-5, a cliff which is not good.

Nobody at the pansy regulator can understand what I'm saying.  All the experts have gone, and the gov't has ditched most of the geo-scientists, only ones left just want to say long enough to turn the lights out.

So they just throw in the same old junk so it lasts another 20 years.  And all for the measly price of a zillion dollars.

Fine print

Do you know they did so much for that plant that they actually anchored the whole thing into the rock (and have probably rusted out).  There are mitigating factors that go against the factor of 10 worsening of seismic hazard, but I'm not telling.  

Warning:  Don't pursue this.  They got everything tied up tighter than Putin.  We can start from our head putin down to the Ontario lilli-putins.  I just use that name instead of the famous German guy.  I mean, everybody has them!  They feed on apathy, and make it worse in a vicious circle.  This destroys the economy.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Bruce black hole gets into rock mechanics


This is a request for further information.  If you look at other requests and answers, you'll know that nothing is expected.  They must have got some input from mining people, since they are asking about rock bolts, etc.  I would like to see hard limits on pumping and grout.

As I have said, it is physically impossible for them to sink the shaft the way they said they would.  But, on the way to disaster, there will be a heck of a lot of stuff worse than fracking waste, and a lot of carbon in the air with grout.

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Oklahoma earthquakes bounce back to shear

If I had any energy, I would really do this in 3d.  There is shearing now along the NE zone, but it is along a gently dipping megathrust, so there will be some spread in earthquakes.  The thrust (formerly a transform fault) is nearly vertical.  Those earthquakes should be a lot tighter on the line.  They will also be much louder and have a higher PGV for their magnitude.  I am pretty sure there are no strong-motion instruments here.

We had massive activity on a very tiny portion of the thrust, and this was reported as 'explosions'.  I doubt these new ones along the shear were as loud.  I was expecting a larger thrust, but I think they are really downgrading them.  I now expect larger shear (strike-slip) quakes.  It would be going according to plan if the next shear quake were larger than the previous one (M4.5).  That one did not produce any significant shaking, and I don't expect the next one will either.  Then we go back to thrusts.

The next thrust will really knock people out of their socks, with a high-frequency pulse, but the seismologists will downgrade it significantly.  That's okay, because I don't want anybody to think this is serious yet.  :)

Update:  Quite a few more, looks like a good run.

up2:  M3 thrust down on the lower line.  Hope there are some felt reports.

up3:  Now we get a few days of rest.  I swear that this is the laziest mechanism I've ever seen!  :)

Friday, February 21, 2014

The Great Fracking Injection Conspiracy

Now to put on my tinfoil hat.  Warning:  Check this out first.

I can't assume that I'm the only one who knows about Precambrian structure.  The oil companies must know since it is obvious on any vibroseis survey.  It is in their interest to keep this quiet since valuable oil traps drape the basement rock.  So, we mark this as a given.

Second, they have full records of what they inject, the pressures and the volumes.  They aren't giving this out to anyone.  This is conspiracy mark two.

Third, they talk to one another, and they don't want the status quo changed.


(I thought for sure they had turned off the juice.)

Added:  Nice M3.2 right at the thrust junction.  My definition of the conspiracy is that they would turn off the juice before I had a chance to gloat.  :)  No conspiracy at all in keeping it going.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Puppy Stuff

Forget earthquakes for now.  Oklahoma has finished its earthquake storm, which was just a tempest in a teapot.  I am confident that they have seen the light of day and have totally stopped the injection of that corrosive fluid, just like Azle.  Now, the fracking boom can go on without any place to inject that stuff.  :)

So, without earthquakes, we go to puppies.  Roxie is 5 months old, a cattle-border mix, and very smart when she isn't being a puppy.  I'm trying to get her to catch a frisbee.  She actually does it once in a while.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Earthquake storm hits Oklahoma

It now becomes obvious that I am having my predicted M5 thrust, though it is being broken up in tiny pieces.  That is always the option you have when you predict things based on stress.  You don't really know the fractal roughness.  If things were relatively smooth, as in Arkansas, you would have a ping-pong of clean earthquakes between the shear wing and the thrust zone.  Thus, we had an M4.5 shear, and I was expecting an M5 thrust.

It's the same with any zone, like Cascadia.  People have always predicted you can have one clean M9, or a 'Decade of Terror', with M8's going off every few months.  In fact, we now have a book, written by one our foremost earthquake experts, formerly computer commenter, Big John.  BJ doesn't realize you are constrained by energy, so that a storm is always comprised of smaller earthquakes.

I mean, really, what's the difference?  I think OK is happy to have 20 M4'ish earthquakes rather than an M5.  And the west coast might be better off, as well.  Trouble is, for OK, this doesn't stop the escalating sequence, and it means the next time they'll have 20 M5's instead of a 6, and so on.

After this sequence dies down, we should have our M5.5 shear.  This shear zone seems smooth, and they usually are, since they have larger displacement per Mag.  :)  Of course, the thrust zone could always become smoother with time.

Addendum:  It has stopped on Wednesday.  If we don't get 20 M4's, then it is just a flurry.  :)  Don't forget that these high M3's are really M4's, but are high-stress drop near-vertical thrusts.  If a seismometer is right on top, it goes super-high, but distant seismometers are low.  Thus, the constant downgrading.  S-S and thrusts are totally different animals.

Add2:  Azle has completely stopped, since this is now a major election issue.

If they don't mix in the frack waste, there are no earthquakes.  The price has now gone up and OK is making money hand over fist.  :)

Caribbean M6.5 earthquake

I'm posting again, and I only included this earthquake because of its beautiful location.  An M6.5 on a subduction zone is nothing.

This is what I would call a 'rough' subduction zone, not like Japan.  That means we may not have M9's, since it is so curved, just M8's.  And not very often.  They do have some cute volcanoes to maintain the islands.

This is a mixed solution, a bit of everything, mostly strike-slip.  Probably just means stress adjustment in the upper block.

Yeah, one of my favourite random street view shots near the epicentre.  Who needs to go anywhere?  :)

Monday, February 17, 2014

Oklahoma slides towards the thrust - M3.8

This last earthquake is split exactly between a thrust and a strike-slip.  It is at the exact intersection and will be the trigger point for the M5 thrust coming soon (maybe).

Addendum:  This junction point has absolutely nuts since then.

This doesn't mean anything in terms of when we expect the M5, but this sort of activity brings in a 6 in the far regions of the uncertainty fuzz.  A pure thrust 6 does not bear thinking about.

Add2:  Still nuts.  I guess 20 M3.8's might be equivalent to a 5.  :)

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Linux: New dash cam toy

I really wanted a dash cam so I could capture asteroid impacts.  :)  I got the cheapest thing on sale at Amazon.  What I found is that for Linux you don't need all the fancy stuff, since you can't display gps anyway.  You just need 1080p, and a 32 gb micro sdhc class 10 ability.  I just put it on the dash with 3M Command strips, other people might want to be fancy.

I used Openshot to trim the video, and that is great stuff.  Now I just need something exciting!

Added:  I've tested at night, and it is quite good.  It gets warm, so I wouldn't park and leave it in the window.

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Friday a big day for US earthquakes

I'm still not posting much, but this was weird.  The Carolina earthquake was probably up the big NW fracture zone that gave us the Charleston earthquake.  These things happen.  It would be a fine place to start injecting!  :)

Friday, February 14, 2014

Don't Step on Me

I couldn't sleep last night with all my earthquake and Toyota troubles.  In my dreams, Toyota is reeling from thousands of responses, and comes to install my battery in my driveway.  Fat chance.  But regardless of the outcome, here is my essay.

The modern world of social media has its positive and negative side.  We live in a world of giant cartels, with huge bureaucracies who want to control us.  To that end they employ every snooping trick possible.  They have never succeeded and never will.  Simply because they are rigid and things change too fast.

We can never allow anybody to be cut out of the herd.  It used to be so easy.  The Maws of the Bureaucracy used to point a finger at a random person and said:  "You shall die."  We saw this done with the nuclear cartel, sugar cartel, record cartel, Putin cartel, etc.  No more!  They shall be afraid that they step on an Internet Skunk, who will spray stinky stuff all over them.  The rest of us must respond when this happens.

What can we do?  We must lift our fingers and type something.  Even the Putin himself is afraid of this.  Go get them!  :)

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Cobourg earthquake - M2.9


I was staying silent until Toyota blew out most of my brain cells.  So, I stupidly continue to post.  This tiny earthquake is noted for the complete lack of reporting on the Canadian side, even though it is right on the border.  We are getting no gold medals for science here.  But the USGS only snagged it because they have that moveable array in the East now.

Just for perspective, here is the general map.

You can see the megathrust lines, and you can also see the importance of water.  Nearly everybody just doesn't get that connection.  So most likely the Cobourg earthquake was on our side of the border.  The Southern Ontario Network seems to have given up this year, but that might just be inertia.  I hope OPG is still funding it because 5 billion of their overrun for Darlington will be due to seismic.  :)

Now, my rational side of my brain can take over, and I'll stop this ranting against the powers.  I mean, look what happened to that anti-sugar guy!  As always, the M5 in Oklahoma, right under that giant earth dam, will kill more brain cells.  :)

New Toyota Highlander Hybrid Epic Fail - Toyota Stonewalls

So, I have my year and a bit Highlander, and it completely dies.  You can't get into this thing!  I had to fiddle with my manual key and then had to crawl in and fiddle with the manual trunk release switch.  You won't believe where they hide the 12V battery.  This is just used to boot up the computers, and when it dies you are royally screwed.  But the car drives great if you use a small boost.

So off to the dealership, wait a few hours, and they tell me the battery is fried but there isn't one in Canada.  It's on backorder, and they have no temporary batteries that fit.  The manager himself pleads to stony-faced Toyota to allow a rental car, but they you have to suffer with no car for 10 days before they will issue a rental.  This repair is all on warranty.

So they give me back a car that won't start once turned off.  I am trickle charging it right now, so I can take off somewhere, I just can't turn it off.  Maybe that's okay, because with the super-quiet hybrid, I tend to park it and forget to turn it off.  Big problem with hybrids.

As usual, Toyota has no email addresses, but a form at this link.  I will fill it in with my link to this.  I hope you will too.

You can say:

I will never buy a stinky Toyota unless you give the Fish a rental car.  If I ever do buy one, I will do like he did and buy from the Internet for thousands off, even though you get mad and shaft us.  On second thought, I won't buy one.  On third thought, I hope you get a zillion more recalls.

(include the link)

Added.  Here is a picture of my great arrangement until T can get the lead out of the mountains, and make a new battery.

I just bought the cheapest battery at Costco.  I've put the trickle charger on it because it was only 12.5 V.

Add2:  That battery costs $400!  Good thing it is on warranty.  It has a custom temperature sensor, and the main computer is designed to freak out if any other battery is put in.  The battery just came in.

Add3:  OMG, Panasonic actually conspired to get their crap battery into the Toyota.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Shutting down again

That's it, I'm totally shutting down all comment until OK gets its M5 earthquake.  My 3 readers really don't have to say anything this time.  Good-bye.

Art of Illusion


I was really hot with this stuff at one time.  Here's my illustration for an expanding anchor for Wikipedia.  When I get my M5 thrust in Oklahoma, my hypothesis advances to a theory, and I should gloat with something good.  I want to illustrate the theory, but I really need encouragement, since this stuff makes my brain hurt.  Please sign this petition:

Make the Fish do some work

We the undersigned realize that the Fish is a lazy bugger who just likes to gab and make fun of people.  The citizens of Oklahoma and Texas need someone to lead them out of the intellectual wilderness before they start getting M7's every day.  The Fish should do some technical illustration.


Flappy Bird

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Oklahoma earthquake M4.1, still strike-slip on the megathrust

In the usual spot.  This will eventually give us an M5.5 s-s (shear) earthquake, but not until we get the M5 thrust.

At least it was big enough for a 'beachball'.

As I have said, I don't think we are up to full injection volume.  We'll have to wait a while.

Friday, February 7, 2014

More stuff from the Bruce Black Hole


I am totally happy with this historic drama.  In this episode, the Panel asks a mindless question for more information on geology, and shaft sinking.  They must do this in order to appear to be working, since these people are worried about the whole Senate thing.

As usual, the other guy responds in an oblique manner.  But, here, for the very first time, they lay out their expectations for the shaft.  They only expect a dribble of water in the shaft, and will dump an infinite amount of grout to achieve this.  After each blast, they expect a nice open pit to send geologists down into.  They will only use a very thin, unreinforced liner, since it will be draining this dribble of water.

Both shafts will be sunk at the same time.

Had they been constructing at Wesleyville, this would be a good scenario.  They would use almost no grout and have no seepage.  I applaud their ability to transfer this scenario to Bruce.

Addition:  After Niagara, any tunnel contractor would give their eye teeth to land this job.  Extras City!  I can imagine the court case now:  "But, we believed your public documents!"

Addition2:  This dream is brought to you by the authors, like conquering Russia.  Unlike those other guys, there is no downside to this quest.  Anyone who uttered "But, Boss!", was quickly eliminated.  Their banner will be emblazoned with the famous Liberal quote:  "It's worth it at any cost!".  But the billions spent sinking impossible shafts will be quickly dwarfed by the nuclear refurb, that is using the wrong seismic basis.  :)   (God, sometimes I wish somebody read this....)

Oklahoma earthquakes busy in the past week

Once again I was in Montreal for a few days.  There's almost no snow there, but I came back to Antarctic drifts in my driveway.  I was just missing the penguins!

But, I digress.  While I was away, lots of tiny activity in Ok.  Nothing interesting, since I don't think the fracking waste trucks can get through the snow storms.  We'll have to wait for Spring.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Greece M6.1 earthquake - walking down the line

This is the world's shortest transform fault.  The whole thing was activated by the last earthquake.  Now this new earthquake has moved down the line.  The only thing staying my hand from predicting doom is that 6's normally don't mean anything.  The fault area is way too small to move crust.  Thus, I will only flag it as 'interesting'.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Oklahoma M3.9 earthquake

This isn't my M5 thrust yet, but things are heating up with the warmer weather.  This is an M3.9, just below the magic M4 we seem to need for a fault-plane solution.  If we had this, we would probably see another strike-slip on the shear wing.  All of this adds displacement to the thrust zone.

Earlier there had been signs that a shear wing would go down to the city, but I don't know if this will happen now.  Once we get up to M6's, we'll get a second shear wing, and the resemblance to New Madrid might even become obvious to USGS people.  :)