Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Cottage Report -- Cold July

 


Our local waterfall is full because of the endless rain.  We have 3 days of sun coming up, but very cold at night.  Good sleeping weather.

This is not writing anything against the sophils.  I love them all!


Monday, July 19, 2021

The fish stops for a while, again

 With all the sophils fighting, and covid almost dead, there is nothing to write about.  Somewhere in the world we'll have another heat wave or flood, and it will start all over again.  I'm just at the cottage and relaxing.  July and August will be warm, and then we get into the ice age.  Who wants to gloat?

Enjoy the warmth and then prepare for cold, which will be explained by philosophy.  No matter what happens, it will be explained.


Cottage Report - Rotten moths almost gone

 


Yeah, almost all the moths are gone.  There were millions and they gave you eye irritation.  The oak leaves are all back, but the cedars look hopeless.  I hope they come back.  Most of the eggs are 60 feet high, and I don't see any to attack.  Next year might be the same, but I hope we have good supply of fungus in the soil.

I blame it all on Clange.  Yeah, it's great to retire from thinking about mechanisms, and just go with the flow.

ps.  you can't believe the completely dead and stagnant air today.  But it's very pleasant.  I'm going to take this as a hint and stop writing for a while.


More on Sophils, Schools of Philosophy

Hypothesis 1 - An Ancient Greek-style democracy can't do anything.

Hypothesis 2 - Sophils have been aided by modern social technology, allowing Crazy Charismatics to rise.

In the old days, if a government arose that was tied up in Sophils, it was quickly taken over by another country in the temporary throes of rationality.

One thing that always brought on rationality and physics was war.  We don't have that any more.  The second hypothesis can be tested by history, but a sophil, like a boom, can only be judged after it collapses.

Crazy Charismatics always lead a sophil.  People like to pile on, and speak to like-minded individuals.  Again, the judgement of 'crazy' goes to History.  Everybody leading a sophil right now is equivalent to a true prophet of old.

Every country, except Canada, is rocked by this right now.  Severe winters always force rationality.  The US elects the bidenarmy.  Can they do anything?  No.  France wants to be rational -- Ha!  Germany couldn't invest in flood control, because that's against a sophil.

Let's build nuclear plants to fight Clange.  Ha!

Let's improve public transit - can't be done without taxes, or raising the price of diesel.  Can only be done in Canada, where we love taxes.

Let's vaccinate everybody to cover up the dismal failure of stopping covid.  Nope, sophils in France will kill to fight that.

A democracy that does stuff is a temporary dictatorship.  You can throw the bums out after 4 years.  But, the era of that is long gone.  

Sophils have hit the Cubans and the Russians.  The remaining oppressive places only survive by killing more and more people.  Once you hit killing 1 in 10,000, then everybody has a friend of a friend who disappeared.  It causes depression and destroys the economy.  Most oppressives have survived with oil, but that will soon end.  Nobody wants to buy anything from China.  We shall see how things go.

ps.  I shall leave this train of thought.  It doesn't do much, but it allows the few physics people in the world to laugh.  


Sunday, July 18, 2021

Competing Schools of Philosophy

 What I enjoy with the modern world, is that FB and twit have brought back the Ancient Greek schools of philosophy.  Each school had different fundamental truths and they tried to convert other people.  Sometimes, it got rather heated, and many people like Socrates had to easy way out with hemlock or warm baths.

We are in this, like the Greek parliament, where everybody had a voice for democracy.  You could not get a more ideal form of government.  Unfortunately, it didn't work.  As somebody said, government is like sausage making -- don't look.

Fauci has said that if we had all this social media in the 50's, then we would not have gotten rid of polio or smallpox.  That was in an era of great rationality, but, perhaps, little sympathy for thousands of tiny minorities, of the type that destroyed Greek democracy.  What is better?

The Scientific Method is ruthless and does not suit this modern world with a sensitivity to everybody and their dog.  It is dead, and each school will push its truth.  As such, we will endure disaster after disaster, and it will all be blamed on the 'other guys'.  I'm just here to observe and laugh, because the alternative is to cry, and that's sad.


Saturday, July 17, 2021

The Great Organic Foods Lie

 Reference


I got into a tussle with the fanatics on CBC about roundup.  They are all in a big hottieness about using it to dry grain crops on the stalk.  You spray rup on the wheat, whatever, before you harvest.  Then it dries like cow-corn.  None of it ever gets into the wheat kernels, and it breaks down immediately.  They go on about how the Euro report calls it cancer-causing, but the report apparently doesn't say that.  Who's going to read an 1100 page report?

So, the euries use something 10 times more deadly, because you can trip over a deposit while walking over some rock.  Amazing, it's 'organic'.  And it is used for organic wine, which makes as much sense as organic sugar.  Organic Deathcap mushrooms.  So much fun.

Anyway, talking to fanatics can be fun, but don't expect anything.  They rule the world.  So, have some organic ethanol and rot your liver.  It's healthy!  I need a sip of my organic Scotch.  

There is no clean organic supply of nitrogen for the soil, not in sufficient amounts to feed the world.  My garden is 'kind-of organic' and I use a lot of my own compost.  That's what gives it the great flavour.  But, I just got my water bill for the garden.  I estimate that anything from it costs 5 times what I could buy at the farmer's market.  Yeah!

ps.  Hold it!  I change the title.  It's not a lie, it's a philosophical truth.

pps.  wow, rup is like crystal spring water compared to the cyanide of copper.  Yet, all the wackies would rather drink the copper coolaid.  Neat.


How Philosophy Rules the World

 Reference


Philosophy, like debate, or courtroom drama, is simply the art of looking hard to find what supports your position, and ignoring anything that doesn't.  It rules on social media, and might prove that britty isn't loonshit crazy.

Morris says $50 trillion must be invested by 2050 “to electrify infrastructure and engineer out the aspects of modern life that most significantly contribute to carbon emissions”. 

A lot of that 50 trillion goes into very dirty mining.

Ground zero for consumption consciousness over battery metals would be the cobalt–Congo–China chain, but the billion iphone users in the world care whether their battery is going to run out before the next Star Wars meme loads, not who dug out the Co with bare hands.

These, of course, are the philosophers with their iphoneys.  

Not sure about this contention, have you ever tried to come between a gen Z (and to be fair gen Y and X too) and his/her/their/zir’s phone? We’ll crawl over non-recycled broken glass for the next Tiktok, swim through deep sea tailings to Insta, climb leach heaps to become Youtubers and drink slurry to binge Netflix.  

I go through the most elaborate hoops to keep the Internet working at the cottage.  What mass depression we have when it futzes out.

Europe should ban anything nasty.  They can just eat the snow of their ice age.  :)


Clange will now block trade

 Clange - The ultimate hyphenated climate-change, causing everything.


It is a 'certainty' that clange is responsible for the European flooding.


However, the physics mechanism is simply cold air meeting warm air.



This is the true meaning of clange, the cause of everything, the ultimate philosophy.  It encompasses cold and hot, black and white, night and day.

It is so serious that clange will now kill global trade, and bring about feudalism, which is the ultimate goal of the philosophers.

Funny that the most 'embedded carbon' comes from solar cells and windmills, and electric cars.  These are all the 'great solutions' to clange.

ps.  without the world getting colder, this clash of warm and cold would have happened farther north.  We'll see a lot more flooding where people aren't used to it, the ultimate clange.

pps and they'll ban Canadian wheat, because without roundup to dry the crops on the stalk, it's back to the drying sheds and burning carbon.

more:  When you embrace philosophy over the Scientific Method, you get stuck in the shifting sands of semantics.  :)


Friday, July 16, 2021

NASA makes Clange sea level rise a fact

 Clange - a new term reflecting that climate change has now become 'everything under the Sun'

Reference


The article gives the example of the end of glaciation, and how the sea levels rose when the continental glaciers rose.  They are confusing the general isostatic depression of the land and actual sea level rise.  In fact, they totally ignore the fact that land everywhere goes up and down like a toilet seat, thus the focus on river deltas.

Now, a sister agency that cannot be named, is getting really slack on processing sea level measurements that show that sea level is sinking because the Pacific Ocean is colder than .. whatever.

They are going to use a satellite for sea level measurements that is only accurate to a few inches.  Not going to cut it.  We have the actual ground measurements, which are no longer available in a timely manner.  I will never consider 'conspiracy theory' when good old incompetence will explain things, but this might be pushing things.  

Since, apparently, I'm the only one in the world to complain about these things to noah, I will have to assume that all the physics measurements will disappear in the future.  Only those things that look for what they expect to find will be available, such as co2 and methane measurements.  It's not the Scientific Method when you tailor everything to find what your philosophy tells you is true.  

So, the world is getting colder and colder, and the sea level is sinking because of simple water thermal contraction.  However, we'll be told the exact opposite, in any way they think the public will swallow, thus clange is everything and causes everything.

ps.  I'm going to spell it Clange, to show the long vowel. 

pps. and the philosophical nature of the definition.  Precision is colonial and racist.

more - and the WSJ is hyphenating, and mentioning that nobody wants to pay for greta-wishes.



Thursday, July 15, 2021

Climate Change causes floods in Germany

 Now that 'climate change' is used for both hot and cold, I can 'embrace' climate change.  However, I'm going to 'change' it to cimate change, and chimate change, to keep them separate in my mind.


This is the MIMIC chart, which shows air with precipitable water.  That means warm and moist air.  You only get any action when it meets cold air.


You can see that 'high water load' air is meeting the general cold that has plagued the region.  Thus, cimate meets chimate.  Thus, this will become a 'climate change' story, and I accept that.


You can by the picture that the lady is wearing a sweater in July.  They are cold, flooded, and miserable. This is climate change in action.  The minimum temperatures are like, 10C.

As we enter an ice age cycle of unknown magnitude, these will be our climate change stories, and people will have to look very hard for a heat wave story.

ps.  since I don't like to type, I'll just call it 'clange', and the song:

Everyone is special!

Everything is clange.

pps.  big tornado in Barrie is clange.  Hope it didn't hit the cottage.  Hope everybody went to their basement and didn't hang around taking videos.

more:  and you thought I was wrong to blame clange.



Don't Piss Off the Sharks

 



As of Friday, Helena seemed to be swimming around just east of St. John's.

"That's about as far north as they like it," Hueter said. Later in the season, she may return to the Gulf of Mexico, or winter off the Carolinas, before joining other sharks in Canadian waters next year.

We are sorry to say that she might have to hang around pissy Brazil more, since it is getting colder and colder up Newfoundland way.

ps.  it is neat that they have oodles of money to do cute shark studies.  No money for ugly, colonial physics. :(


Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Math and Physics gone from the world

 


They are just going with objective math and no physics.  We already know that these things are gone from the real world.  Everything is directed by charismatic people and social media.  This will result in lots of future disasters, which will be ignored as people discuss the impact of a single molecule of roundup.  :(

RSS shows global temperatures down

 


All I'm waiting for is the tides, but I'm the only one in the world mentioning to them that something is wrong.  They gave me a song and dance about how they spread the compute power around, so that one site isn't favoured.  blah.

We just got another foot of rain at the cottage.  The lake is back up a foot, the earlier drought had caused to pull logs at the dam.  July has been a washout.  I hope the UK is doing better.  :)


Tuesday, July 13, 2021

NOAA global temperatures continue to go down

 


The Haywood plots put us firmly in mediocre territory.  


They don't have a monthly plot like rss, but this is the Jan-June plot.  We are way down.

Looking at the plots, I think their PR department can go with '5th warmest June on record!'  Yeah.

ps.  this is the plot that most aligns with Spencer and RSS.


You can see the 2016 El Nino peak, and the 2019 Halvsie El Nino.  

ps.



Sunday, July 11, 2021

Caterpillars turn into Goopsy Moths

 You can't call them by the old name, that is so unpolitically correct.  Anyway, here at the cottage, there are thousands of moths.  The whole lake got scent strings, so they are currently drowning in my trap.  I think they are mostly done, though.  The neighbour said that a few days ago, you could see the white females who just perch, and she enjoyed smashing them.  I don't see any.

ps.  the oak leaves are all out.



The trap working.  We got some hormone bait and they fall into the soapy water.  

ps.  today we learned to put the traps well downwind.  And we have to change the water every few house because the choke the water up. 

Friday, July 9, 2021

NOAA national results fairly normal

 


There it is, almost at the line separating the top 5 warmest and the 5 coolest years.  It dropped a lot at the beginning of the year, and is just coasting along.

ps.  next January I expect it to drop another notch into the coldest years.  And who's going to notice?

Climate Change is now 'The Theory of Everything'

 

The Blob that Ate Everything.  


That's the problem with Philosophy.  Every change is just a hand-waving argument away.  And on discussion groups, the warmies are fine with that.  Hot or Cold, it's all Big Oil's fault.

That article shows that most of the deaths are related to cold.  But it is pushed in a warmie headline.  Talking to people, all they remember is '50C, that's climate change!'.  They just remember the headlines.

Oh well, we are rapidly entering an ice age of some sort, and it will all be climate change.  I'm just going to argue that we need a little physics, but all the big powers are aligned against that.  We'll need a generation change, and by that time, you won't be able to grow tomatoes outdoors in Canada.  Yeah.

For now, my mention of 'warmies' is just short for philosophers.  Science is philosophy is science.  I'm not going to argue against it.  :)

ps.  Oh, a great headline "Toronto outdoor attractions and patios open up, Climate Change closes them.'

Except it's because it's freezing cold and rainy.

pps.



Arctic cold blobs line up like planes coming into the airport

 


Here they come.  Electroverse has dozens of cold stories if you like that sort of thing.  Last July, there were no cold blobs because the Arctic was still weak from the 2019 halfsie El Nino.  Now, it's at full power.

The mechanism is that the Pacific has turned off, and the Arctic is pouring down on us.  Last year, we had stagnant air which is like a desert in July.  But this year, there is a lot of cold.


The ice volume is following the standard curve, but the 2019 channel is filled.  I expect it to veer off soon, and set a new record.

ps.  just got my second vaccine yesterday.  Ow, my arm!

pps.  speaking of planes, they are open to travel, but where would you go?  If you went into a foreign covid-pit of variants, you wouldn't die with the vaccine, but as the cartoon says 'It's amazing what you can live through.'

more -- omg, the warmies are claiming abnormal cold.  I mentioned on a warmie channel that 'hotter hots, colder colds' (which was the title of the article) was never in the original greenhouse conjecture.  It was always 'warmer warms'.  They said it was always that way.  Rewriting history.  neat.


Thursday, July 8, 2021

Pacific Ocean Heat Engine just can't start

 


This reminds me of my old lawnmower.  You could pull and pull and pull, and nothing happened.  Into the garbage!  The Great Pacific Heat Machine is the same right now.  It can't start, and the latest current map is identical for the last year.

When it starts up, it becomes a great lens of heat for the Earth.  Some great physics here, but none of that will be measured.  We are in "No Physics in the Time of Stories".  It's all just legal argument, supported by selected stories.

We don't really know what happens, since these current measurements weren't around the last time we went into a cold cycle.  I would expect that in a few years, it starts up again.  If it doesn't, then we are in the big cycle.  brrr.

Western heat eases with Pacific breeze

 


Yeah, they get the breezes again.  The heatwave was caused by a total stoppage of the Pacific plumes on BC.  The dang weather people just called it a 'Heat Dome', as if that means anything.  It just set the warmies off.  And the fire was caused from the town, probably somebody's air conditioner blew up.

All in all a total warmie distortion, that upped media circulation by a lot.


Now we've just got the callie deserts at full heat.  Will they all go there?  BC is just going to pleasant, and we're going cold.  On the plume chart you can see more and more Arctic blobs coming down on Toronto.  July will be a washout.  

I remember something like this in 1977 when I was a construction inspector, and part of it was the grass cutting at the old Downsview military air field.  It rained every day all summer.  The fields were a sodden swamp, and the mowers couldn't get in.  They yelled at me, and finally took me off to put in an old ex-military guy.  I don't think he did any better.

This morning I misread the charts and thought they were for June.  I went nuts for the old May results.  My best snarky work yet.  All wasted, but I expect June will be bad, and I can write all that again.  The US gov't charts are getting later and later as it gets colder and colder.  Their PR department will have a tough time warming things up, maybe something like '15th warmest June ever'.

I never proof-read until I publish.  I hate to read the editor format.


Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Toronto housing has a hiccup

 


It looks flat here, but sales have dropped dead in the neighbourhood.  One crazy acquaintance who still wants to buy a house, couldn't get the tiniest discount on a house with no offers.  Everybody wants the peak of a couple of months ago.  The signs are all rusting in the rain.

Meanwhile, the condos are springing up like rabbits.  Every one of those buildings are sold out with deposits, because that's the only way they start.  Most of them are probably 'sealed units' for money laundering, and who knows how long that goes on.

It will be interesting to see what happens towards the end of the year.  Will the feds run out of money?  What is money these days?  Will a trillionaire just buy all of Toronto?  Fun, fun, fun.

ps.  just ditched my long hair, sort of homeless 70's child star look.  

pps. for those who thought they saw June temperatures, it was a dream caused by my lack of coffee in the morning.  That was still the old May results.


Poor UK forced to redefine 'sizzling heat wave'

 


While guard natters endlessly on the Western North America stagnant air, at home they are looking for warmth.  And if they don't get any, then it's time for the standard warmie semantics shift.  22C is now a heatwave.  Time for everybody to go the beach.  

ps.  and get a nice 'rain tan'

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Cottage Report - gloomy weather forever

 


The west is in a heat ghetto, and that's all anybody can write about.  The rest of us have cold gloom.  At the cottage we survived the huge thunderstorms but all the action was high up.  We had those 5 km long lightning flashes at 20,000 feet, because the thunder rumbled for a long time.  About 4 inches of rain, which will be good up here.  They were draining the lake more for the Trent Canal because of the general drought.  I think all this rain might stop that for a while.

 

With happy news, we have the oak trees putting out new leaves.  They have evolved with this sort of thing.  All the stored energy for acorns will go to new leaves.  Can't wait to see what the pine trees will do.  Our potato leaves were never touched.


Monday, July 5, 2021

Another huge Arctic blast comes down on us

 


It'll be a cold day in July.  I've never seen anything like this in the summer.  BC is left out because of the mountains, so the warmies can have that.  We are going to be another 'cold story' on Electroverse.

It's fun making comments on cbc that the charts are going down, and you get angry replies.  Neat.

More charts should come out soon.

ps. temp anomaly map, cold.


pps.  probably no charts this week because everybody is going to BC for some heat.


Sunday, July 4, 2021

Geofish gets his every 10 years fish

 

 

Yeah, a nice eating smallmouth bass.  Every morning I go out with the dog in the paddle boat and fish for 10 minutes.  I get lots of nibbles, and lots of bass that jump off the hook.  And now I got this, and fought it with my super-light rod for 10 minutes, on a light drag.  


The guy next door gets 6 pounders and releases them.  You probably can't eat those.

ps.  yeah, we're back to being sunny and super-hot.  Much better than constant rain.

pps.  fish-guy next door has the latest sonic scanners.  He went up the shore for a while and estimates thousands of huge lake trout, all staring at him and not doing anything.  I told him to get an underwater drone so he can have pictures of them staring at him.  I don't think he gets any more fish per hour of effort than I do.  :)


Saturday, July 3, 2021

Continent churns in a hot mess

 The mid-west is churning.


It's the only hotspot north of the tropics and it's shrinking.  That makes the warmie article population density extremely high.


A nasty cold tongue from the Arctic has zipped down and made things rainy for us.  blah.

ps.  nobody writes about these cold records being shattered.



No gas engines in Canada by 2035

 Reference

Finding the charge station will be the hard part.

Yeah, charging your car during a 10 ft snow blizzard.  The way we are ploughing into a Little Ice Age means we'll have to plough to the charging stations and knock them over.

I am positive we won't be getting rid of the diesel snow ploughs.  And we won't be using Chinese lithium, and solar cells.  We are back to the snows of 1830, and even more, but there's no record of it.  The cold will be 'unprecedented'.  


Miami starts evacuating everybody from everything

 


Not knowing what's going on, they have swung from one extreme to another.  The inspections are useless, and we must go to physics.  Hurricane season is upon us, and the warmies are happy.


Friday, July 2, 2021

Cottage Report - Thunderstorm City

 


We have an endless stream of t-storms coming down on us.  Good for the oak trees.  You can see a huge mixture of cold and hot.  The clear areas are the 'super hot' zones.  Central Canada looks like a standard summer of warm air coming up from the south.  They aren't going to have the 'no place to run' heat.  All the clear hot zones may collapse, and the warmies need new stories.




Spencer has global temperatures dropping

 


Beginning of the month and we start getting the charts.  We know that the only warm spot in the world is western North America.  This is filling up 99% of the warmie articles.  My tide data isn't in yet, but it probably show a continued plunge.

The UK is really cold, but the tabloids keep saying 'Big heat wave next week'.  The Pacific Ocean really isn't doing anything.  I'm saying that we're following the script for the Little Ice Age.  Next year we'll have one town in the world that is hot, and the warmie area article density will be huge, perhaps 20 articles per square foot!


Thursday, July 1, 2021

How the dinosaur-meteor myth was foisted on us

 This myth has been busted.  The dinos died of a cold.  The following explanation is exactly the same as the Chariot of the Gods scam and will be the same when people realise 'Climate Change', is a bust.

This myth was busted because there are people who aren't afraid, and nobody really cares about it any more.  So, 20 or 30 years ago, a guy found a layer of iridium at the Cretaceous boundary.  Not being content to leave it alone, he went out and preached.  They specifically looked for it all over the place, and found it all over the place.  Naturally, they just confined their search to the specific layer.  In other words, they found what they were looking for.

This went on and on, and soon we had cartoons of the dinos looking at the meteor that was to kill them.  They were happy, happy until they got zapped.  

This was against physics because over the 100 million years of dino-rule, there were many meteor strikes. They found one near the proper time, and went full-hog.  The problem was that resolution of everything was plus/minus 10 million years, which is a long time.  They slid everything around so it all happened at exactly the same time.  Then we had the animated movie.

We had years of how the one meteor hole was 'unprecedented', and different from all the rest.  This was philosophical bullshit.  I fought this garbage for years, but I enjoy the fact that nobody listens to me, or otherwise the dino-fanatics would attack.

So, now we know that they were dying off for 10 million years.  As the resolution increases we will find that all the 'facts' were nowhere near each other.

I can't wait to do the history of 'climate change'.  :)  But for now I acknowledge that it is religious fact.

 I told you the warmies would go to town in the summer.  We get this doomer headline from the guard.


Woooo, nowhere is safe, but wait!


Everywhere else in the world it's cold.  Neat.

Dinosaur meteor myth laid to rest

 Reference


Yeah, I am vindicated!  I wrote about this forever.  With plate tectonics, when the plates are schmooshed together we get warmth and large reptiles.  When they care apart we get large mammals.  It's all to do with how they handle heat.

It's funny that many articles on this say 'climate change killed the dinos', but this climate change was global cooling.  Such a meaningless term.

So, continent jammed together bake the deep crust, and release water and co2.  The water is the main agent.  The ocean currents don't do anything.  Continents apart mean cooling by ocean currents.  

But I expect the meteor myth will go on forever because it's so cute.

ps, the dino-myth was one of the first of the 'new science', which is really philosophy.  They discovered meteor remnants, and then right away to an 'explanation' or 'just so' stories.  Then they looked hard and found evidence to support the claim.  

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

Death claims the caterpillars

 


There's a totally buggered Pixel panorama.  The oak trees all have little buds.  All catties have succumbed to the plague.  Not one is alive and no cocoons.  Yeah!  It probably was the intense cold and rain, and very weird weather.  The pine trees are very thin, but shouldn't die.  We have young pine trees completely stripped, and we'll see.  

ps.  the weather is nice, but I am surprised how little traffic there is on the lake.


AI generates meaningless slogans by the fistful

 Reference


Along with collapsing buildings and 'climate change', the modern era gives us an endless source of slogans to march to.

I remember the great slogan "The Medium is the Message".  That was so trendy at one time.  We had a first-edition paperback that had the title "The Medium is the Massage".  I wonder which was the most meaningful.  


Continental Extreme Summer Heat

 


This is the time for extreme summer heat on the dry land mass.  If we have active ocean plumes, then there is some moderation.  But the Pacific plumes have totally stopped, leaving the mid continent in stagnant air.  This is sometimes called an air dam, or heat block.  

We have cold blocks in the Winter.  I think the physics supports that they are objects, since there is a very dense air mass.  These things can descend and part the ocean breezes.

However, I think the heat block is merely the absence of breezes.  I can't see it as an object since the air is less dense.  That's some good physics to explore there.  When we have a short or long ice cycle (age), we can always count on a hot summer.  The breezes stop, and we have pure solar heating.  That's when being near the Great Lakes is a benefit.


Tuesday, June 29, 2021

The Physics of Building Collapse

 We shall follow the Scientific Method.  It will terminate at the hypothesis stage with possible Method.  Nobody will fund this because the SM always challenges power structures based on belief.

Hypothesis:

All building collapse is caused by fatigue due to live loads or previous major loading events.  As the building softens, it accumulates more fatigue.

Definitions and Assumptions

We are following all known physics laws.  Fatigue is something that can be experienced by all materials.  Basically, any material can be loaded to a point beyond elasticity.  As long as a material is elastic, it is only stretching atomic bonds, and can be loaded in this manner forever.  Think of your grandfather's hammer that was only used for cracking nuts.

Once the material is loaded into the fatigue zone, there are irreversible changes, such as micro-cracks or crystal boundary shifts.  The material can be loaded for thousands of cycles, but once it is cracked through and through, it fails catastrophically.

Concrete has the added complication of ageing.  Aggregate can slowly react.  Salt can come out of the stones, etc.  We had dams that expanded excessively, and had to wire-saw them.  This usually does not affect the overall strength, but it is a factor.

Method

The hypothesis has been formulated in such a manner that it can be tested and failed.  This is unlike most philosophical tenets of the 'Philosophy Science' followers.

You cannot go to the material after collapse, since it has been shattered.  You do not have a record of the progression of fatigue.  There is some good physics that can be done, but that requires funds from people who have an interest in remaining ignorant.  It's best to say that it is all 'God's Work' or 'Climate Change', which are equivalent.


Giant Soft-Storey Condos Come to Burlington

 


There's something wrong in the physics of engineering, as I have always said.  This is a common state, since we always learn something new with every big collapse.  Might as well say the Sun will rise.


However, this collapse really exposes the mismatch between perception and reality.  All the pre-damage they were talking about is classic surface rebar corrosion of the Gardiner Expressway type.  Nothing that would lead to the collapse.  There has to be some more physics here.  

All buildings have a built-in seismic capacity, which is defined as what it will take to damage the building in terms of peak ground velocity - PGV.  As the sc approaches zero, you will get static collapse.  So, we know that old Florida buildings have a very low seismic capacity.  Apparently, they claim that Hurricane Andrew raised the building standards.  Perhaps they are up to 10 cm/s, since wind loads and seismic loads are similar.  I tend to doubt it, but there are only sinkholes in Florida, and no earthquakes.

Buildings should not collapse with an earthquake, hurricane or sink hole.  People should be able to get out.  We saw this with the big Chile earthquake, the buildings tilted, and in one case tipped over, but they were intact.  You only had to worry about your Grand Piano rolling over you.

Unfortunately, Chile exposed the dangers of the latest trend in condos - soft storeys and transfer slabs.  For Toronto, a rock foundation solves many problems, but these Burlington towers are right on the Hamilton fault.  I've written the scenario for this fault.  It let go with an M7 a few thousand years ago, and has the usual 1 in 10,000 per year of going again.  The history is written in the topography, and the disturbed sediments in Lake Ontario.  Nobody cares.

These towers are to be built on the hanging wall of the fault.  The pgv is expected to be a record-breaker of 1 m/s, and nothing can withstand that.  But, in world without physics, we go on living memory, and stories from our grandparents.  No earthquakes there.

Anyway, with the Great Toronto Real Estate Collapse upon us, I doubt the towers will be built.  No need for more 'coin laundry' empty suites.  :)

ps.  all buildings that have collapsed passed inspection.  Even the most horrible exposed rebars are fixed by plastering on a new coat of concrete.  Is there something wrong here?  The most famous is the Churchill NZ collapse, totally passed inspection, and a pile of rubble the next day.  These buildings die of fatigue from previous loads, be it storms, parties, or earthquakes.  Totally invisible damage.  Expect to see more of this.

pps.  lots of identical buildings about.  Will they accept the phoney assurances of inspection?


Reference

I think that nobody cares for these people.  The first building inspector is using the 'Stupidity Defence' of not remembering anything.  No inspectors or engineers will undermine this defence in the US, since they sue anybody and their dog.  And the new buildings will use the 'That was then, and this is now.' defence.