Saturday, March 6, 2021

Carbon warming causes El Nino

 Reference


This is fun.  I read this article and it was good.  I was so hopeful that they weren't going to mention the carbon warming hypothesis.  But I got to the very last words.  Damn!  But that's a spoiler.  :)


China controls nickel and rare earths

 Reference


This is fun.  The leftie loonies got rid of all nuclear power in Europe, leaving Pootine to do anything he wants, since he controls all the natural gas for Europe.

They also got rid of all our freon, which is another story.

And now they are getting rid of all oil products, which just leaves Tesla.  And those guys need nickel, rare metals and rare earths.  tessyman was all in a pickle about nickel, but now there are no worries because China controls all of it.

So, when you listen to these guys, remember the type of future they want -- no physics, and a world controlled by Russia and China.  Yeah!  At least they think they won't boil to death.

If the physics people get their act together, then we can go with methanol fuel cells and  graphene super-capacitors.  Not a speck of lithium anywhere.  This is important stuff.

Trumpies new party, with a side-branch in Alberta aren't going to do it.  They just complain and kill people.  There was an Alberta article where they complained that academics are against them.  Duh!  Use money to pay them off and do physics.  They are all starving, and they must appear to hate Alberta to fit in with the culture and get jobs.  Do something, you whiners!

If I wrote this in the Natpost, then I would get all the haters.  Neat.

ps.  if I were Pootine and Big Killer Genocide Guy, I'd pour billions into the lefties, and micrysoft to put out shatty software.  :)  Oh, and the trumpies because they kill anybody with a brain.



Time to plant your tomato seeds

 This year, seeds are ridiculous.  If you haven't ordered your seeds by now, you're probably SOL.  The super-fancy tomato seeds seem to come in smaller and smaller amounts.  If you are a city gardener, you need the seeds with every type of disease resistance.  Only buy the seeds that grow tall on poles, which are frustratingly called 'determinate' or 'indeterminate', and I can never remember which.  I wish they just called them 'pole' or 'bush', like the beans.

So, you get out your seed flats, and you fill them with Miraclegro soil from Costco.  Then you pour on some water, and add more dry soil because you always put in too much water.

Sprinkle the seeds on the flats and label them.  Put a clear plastic cover on, or saran wrap.  Put the flats in the furnace room and wait about a week.

I also did onion seeds which is new for us.  As well, do your cannabis seeds.  I only have two left over from last year, I hope they are good.  Or else, it's time to order.  They always have lots of seeds, since it is totally illegal.  If you want seeds, then get a souvenir pack of 'beads' from CropKing seeds.  I have no hope for the legal seeds, since they are meant for commercial growers.  Everybody likes a different type of cannabis plant.

Last year, my hash plants went ballistic, and two plants are enough for anybody.  Only pick the buds as you can process them.  I picked them all at once, and the big juicy buds immediately started to rot.

As soon as you see the green on the flats, put them under lights.  When they get about 2 inches high, transplant each one into a small seedling pot.  Label them well.  Standard magic marker fades on cheap plastic in the sun.  I know how difficult that makes life.  :(

With your cannabis seeds, get the 'feminized' ones.  It's too late to sort out males.  In a bunch of seeds you'll find some 'super growers'.  These are the ones you want.  If you are lucky then, you can take cuttings and give them to friends.  Throw out the miserable ones.


Friday, March 5, 2021

Minor Arctic Blob Attack Over Soon

 


The latest wonderful warmie story is that 'Arctic Melting' is responsible for the blob attack on Texas.  Well, it's -40 up there and not melting.  Same with this little blob.  I'm looking for some warm weather to plant my tomato seeds in planters.  I like working outside for this.


Tremendous plume activity is making it warm for us, for a while.  The Pacific plumes are bringing up the Gulf plumes.  But, the Arctic ice is still building, and there's a lot of cold up there.  We must expect more cold-blob attacks.

The UK is still cold, but they keep getting hit by random plumes, to keep their hopes up.  

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Lots of earthquakes around New Zealand

 Although they did quite well with Covid, we are reminded that they enjoy the rugged scenery of a huge subduction zone.



The earthquakes are around M7 to 8 and are popping off on this zone.  Each earthquake has a fault length of about the size (on the map) of the Google pin.

This is a fantastic, smooth, clean subduction zone.  In order to maintain such a clean cut, such zones must have an M9 every 300 years (give or take a few hundred).  That type of earthquake only gives a 20 cm/s pgv to New Zealand, but one heck of a tsunami.

These earthquakes give a small shave to the big 300-sided die that rolls every year.  NZ has a heck of a lot worse places for an earthquake.  The big nuclear Japan earthquake gave some warning with m7's, but the odds of these earthquakes meaning anything is still about 1 in 100.

The limit to the Magnitude of earthquakes is about M9.  That translates to thousands of kilometres of fault rupture, and these smooth zones are also limited to this length.  An M9.2 is twice as long.


So, looking at this zone, it's going to radiate one monster tsunami to the coast of South America.  It's mere existence means that those guys better spruce up their tsunami warning systems.

ps.  just had an M8, popping off along the whole length.  I would give this higher odds to rupture.


Physics breaks out of subservience

 Reference


With the fear of death from warmie lip-flappers, the physics people were relegated to pathetic models that threw in a fudge-factor of 'climate sensitivity'.  This was the effect of 'greenhouse gases' on global temperatures.  For the last 5 years, the cowerers didn't go past 2016.

Now, they have grown a pair (up or down).  They have gone past 2016 and have found that the 'phoney factor' is tremendously low.  Now, they are all into clouds.

They have used the most mild language.

Instead, the researchers found that models with lower climate sensitivity are more consistent with observed differences in temperature between the northern and southern hemispheres, and, thus, are more accurate depictions of projected climate change than the newer models. 

and

"Understanding how clouds modulate climate change is at the forefront of climate research,"

For years they put in the carbon fudge factor with the excuse that 'nothing else works'.  Instead of looking for something else, they dipped their heads and went with carbon.  Although I think they are way off with the new focus on clouds, it cuts off another leg of the wobbly warmie stool.

ps. also they have recognized that the north and south were heating differently, and this is not consistent with the carbon hypothesis.


Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Global temperatures still down, but up a tad

Spencer has his graph, which is very close to NOAA, when it comes out.


The sea level predicted a little uptick, but we are still way down.  We'll see what NOAA says tomorrow. 

You can see we have our 'short cycles' on top of a longer cycle.  We are all hoping that we just go into another short cycle like the 70's.  That would be wonderful, but I'm worried about running out of the long cycle.  

The warmies are ignoring this, but it is always fun to see what they will tack onto 'The Narrative', to explain the cold.


Ocean current report - March 3, 2021

 Yeah, after a month of no updates, we have the new results.



The Pacific ocean currents look entirely normal.  We had a massive influx of Antarctic water, and that's dying away.


The sea surface temperature anomaly still shows the same, but it should start going away now.  My thoughts of having a very cold winter, were based on this huge blob of cold water.


But it turned out that all the tropical plumes were generated close to Japan, and could skip the dead area of the rest of the Pacific.  Normally, these plumes are generated and fed along the whole length of the current.  It has to be over 30C to generate a plume.

So, we are into new physics.  We never had this type of monitoring in the mid-70's when we started the big cold cycle after the warm 60's.  Our recent big warm cycle started in 1997, which had little monitoring, and then ended in a glorious blast of 2016.  We are now going back into a cold cycle.

I am suspecting that there is new physics when the air gets to -50 to -60C, but now we have sunshine and some warmth.  The UK is still grumping because there is no Gulf Stream.


Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Back to standard clippers

 The Toronto forecast only had one night of cold, and now it is extended.


This is a common pattern, with the tropical plumes hitting high.


The wind is coming down from the Yukon and dragging the cold along.  My blob hypothesis only involved -50 air which may have unusual properties.  Mainly that it become more resistant to convection, and being shifted by the wind.  That was demonstrated by the tropical winds 'bouncing off' that type of air mass.  Anyway, we have cold for now.

The general forecast is for a warm March.  I doubt it.


Monday, March 1, 2021

Blob Defeated

 


I was watching the blob against the warm Pacific winds, and it was defeated.  My hypothesis is dead.

It's getting too late in the season for another major blob attack.  I was surprised by the Texas freeze, so there must be other factors, such as a lack of Pacific winds, to allow the blob to advance.

So, for Texas, a blob attack remains at one in hundred per year.  Any normal person would design for that, like a hundred year flood.  

ps.  I'm trying to show nasa that it isn't so bad to have a failed hypothesis.  We can have a game show!  Do you choose A or B?  

pps.  all we are having now in Toronto, is a one day blow-down.


more:  and if you ever wonder why we got into this whole non-physics mess.


you know that porn is next....  :)


Sunday, February 28, 2021

Cold blob hangs up at the Great Lakes again

 


I was expecting to find a smooth front this morning, halfway to Texas.  Instead, it is a jagged little pill.  Part of it can still go down the mid-west, but it won't be as fast as I thought.  The physics on this, though, is amazing.

At least the Arctic ice volume has crossed another line.


ps. it's quite amazing, when combined with the tropical plumes.  Very weird.


pps.  this is quite a study in the interior cohesiveness of the blob.  The great lakes are acting as an anvil stopping it.  Blob1 was 10 times smaller and fit between the lakes and the rockies.  Can it bloop down and still hit Texas?  That would mean that the blob splits down the middle.


Saturday, February 27, 2021

Full Blob Attack!

 


This one is twice as big as the texasfreezer.  It is about to hit Lake Superior, and the Great Lakes have turned back two blob attacks so far.  There's nothing Texas can do, except drain the water pipes.  And this is never forecast until the town is right into it.  


There's a good-sized plume trying to attack it, but it looks like it is being deflected.  

The blob is like a landslide starting.  Very slow a the top, but quickly picks up steam.  Should hit Texas in a day or two.  If it breaks through the Great Lakes, then the other southern states will freeze.

ps.  yeah for slime mold!

Reference



Very simple physical properties can make it self-propelled just like Blob Bob.  :)

pps -- New Insight!  The edge of the blob is hardened by the rotating jet stream.  Neat.


Friday, February 26, 2021

Follow the blob in real time

 Third time's the charm.  I usually have to wait until the morning to get a full minimum temperature black blob picture, but the tropical plumes also give the picture.


You can see the clear area descending.  The tropical plumes bend around it.  The towns fall by the wayside, as red warnings go up.


Just below that, it's all 'la la la'.  I know I've been wrong more than once, but THIS IS IT!  It's a real wolf!  (maybe).  Can the winds stop it?  


Sea level shoots back up again

 I have lost my confidence, but the sea level last month has gone back up again.




The upper is a magnification since 2016.  The sea level is very bouncy, but there is quite difference from the 2016 warm cycle.  This bounce may mean that global temperatures come back a bit.  


Blob changes direction again

 



Yeah, I won't be attacked for knowing too much.  All my kids are laughing at me -- "Where's the cold, dad?'  Blah.  Once again, the blob has been sheared off by tropical plume winds. 

I took a guess as to the physics, and it looks like it's not the tank I thought it was.  It's brooding up there, and we all want to know if it is going to take another stab at Texas.  I also think the Great Lakes had more heat energy than I thought.

ps.  we start to get a better idea of the actual physics parameters.  It actually is a 'slime mold' that eats heat energy.  It would have properties of cohesion, adhesion, stiffness, etc.  Two times it has attempted to go down the Great Lakes and has failed.  The last time it had to send a narrow tongue down alongside Lake Superior and that was too weak.  Now, it is in a tight formation and that can deflect plume winds.  Will it advance again?  Most likely, and it will go to Texas.  At least, nothing will freeze in the garage.

Our 'bellweather' site is Fort Mac


Yellowknife is all -40 across the board.  Tomorrow, it will be the same here, if it starts to move.

pps.  the tropical plumes are funneling down a Pacific heat zone and hitting us.  Any blob must be robust to survive.



Thursday, February 25, 2021

Outer blob slips by Great Lakes

 


Boy, this is slow, but it's still coming.  Not on any forecast yet.  The outer blob should hit us tomorrow.  The main black blob is hitting Churchill.  

ps.  the main hypothesis is that the blob is self-propelled and can't be stopped, like an air glacier.  If it stops, then pooey.  :)

pps.  the forecast for Timmins is still tropical

I assume they are treating this as a stationary high pressure zone.

more: it's killing me it's so slow, but the mechanism implies an exponential increase in velocity as it absorbs more heat energy.  I didn't track the velocity of the last one, but it hit Texas fast.

lala - Churchill is now sucked into the blob.  The forecast was tropical just a while ago.  Timmins is next.


Although it says -40, it should get to -50.


Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Consequences of a Big Freeze

 The Great Lakes heat shield has had two big hits lately.  For these hits, you saw big impact on the polar blobs coming down.  Now, the shields are down, all heat energy is gone.  


There we have Lake Superior, very deep and huge.  During the summer, the lake warms and might get up to 10 C throughout, mainly through currents and conduction.

In the fall, it gets cold.  When the water hits 4C, it is as dense as it gets, and sinks down in huge plumes.  The warmer water goes up, and floods the atmosphere with heat energy.  During the last big blob attacks, all that warm water gave up the ghost, and now it is all at 4C.


Sad, sad, sad.  No more churning.  When our new blob hits, it can only go from 4C to freezing.  Lake Superior doesn't normally freeze over, so the heat energy released is very small.

The blob will run over them like they don't exist.  Lakes Huron and Erie will complete total freeze-over.

Now, if the weather guys had a speck of physics, they would be ringing the village bells.  This is a big deal!  In my houses, I always had pipes freeze until the famous 1997.  Then no more freezing.

And here's a funny story about Pickering Nuclear plant.  We had the big 90's freezes and that clogged up the station.  We had frazil ice, which is super-cooled drops of water within the main water.  As soon as that drop hits something, like a screen or a pump blade, it instantly explodes into ice crystals which stick hard.  That clogs things up and shuts down the plant.

Upper management was furious about that, and demanded that we engineers do something.  I wouldn't do it because it was stupid, but the boss was forced to design and install it.  It was just a boom that they had to put in and out every winter.  I think they gave up eventually.

That's because it was installed in 1997, and that was the start of the Great Warm Cycle.  It never froze again, and we kept looking at that stupid boom. 

The forecasters won't give a warning until the day before.  If you are smart you will check your piping in uninsulated areas.  I've got a case of wine in the garage.  Prepare for 30 below, and a electricity outage.  My downstairs gas fireplace is totally mechanical.  If you have exposed piping, then run a heat tracer on it.  This will be bad.  The wine bottles explode at -10C.



Air Glacier Gunnin' Right for Us

 


This is bigger than the last and is stream rolling the Great Lakes.  No indentations caused by the upper lakes, they have shot their load the last time.

We can call this 'AOC Instant Karma'.  The bidenarmy can have their group photo taken at 50 below.

ps.  this is straight out of Star Trek -- 'Alien blob approaching.  SHIELDS ARE DOWN!  Scotty, rev up the heat!  She canna take it, captain! '

pps.  this is physics in action.

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

New nuclear waste dump for Ottawa

 Reference


This is interesting, but I don't have any 'happy' comments about it, so I won't say anything.  

ps.  nothing to do with this horrible thing, but the house next to me has gone up for sale, due to my neighbours being too old.  Feel free to enter a bidding war and pay a million too much!


And here it comes!

 


Here comes da cold!  My physics is correct, and I was worried for a while.  Once again, this is not forecast.  Texas won't know what hit them.  Tomorrow we'll see the upper Great Lakes act as a shield and deflect the air glacier away.  

It hurts to be always right, and not have anybody believe.  But, i'm not peddling 'a solution' in my new book coming out (ha, ha).  It is best to just assume I'm wrong.

natgas has gone down based on all the predictions of warmer weather.  Go Bob the Blob!

On a more serious note, I proclaim a physics discovery.  'Self-propelled blob at 50 below'.  

ps.  speaking of physics, note the huge data error in the ice volume chart.


Unlike temperature, ice has mass.

pps.  and you can see the blob by the total clarity in the mimic map.


The pacific plumes can't touch it.  It is truly a phenomenon.  if you have questions read the backgrounder.

more:  somebody should tell Teddy that it's okay to go back to Cancun.  :)

blah - Edmonton has finally changed the forecast, but not nearly cold enough.

more blah - the 3 day edmonton forecast is going down like a rock and still not at -50.


Monday, February 22, 2021

Air Glacier On the Move

 


That's Bob the Blob transforming into an air glacier.  The Pacific tropical plume has moved out of the way. There's nothing to stop Bob's visit to Texas.

The air glacier should have another name, but I can't think of one.  Perhaps Coolin' Cruise, or Dapper Don.  Or Happy AOC.  

50 below is just touching Alberta.  Tomorrow, the Weather Network will be playing drums on frozen clothes.  This one is so big it might blow past our Great Lakes shield and give Toronto a chill.  Even nicer if it could get to Washington.

ps.  natgas starts another spike.


pps.  Dear Texas, the official advice is that such a huge cold spell will never happen again.  So, be happy, don't do any physics.  Just believe aoc, it's going to be warm.

more:  in predicting the descent, the physics question is:  Is it self-propelled like a big slime mold?  Or does it drift like a balloon in the wind?  I go for slime mold.

la la:  The official forecast does not have it coming down. Neat.


Sunday, February 21, 2021

Huge drop in global temperatures - NOAA

 Okay, so I looked for more temperature charts.  

Reference


This is their chart and it is fine with 'The Narrative'.  


The narrative can put a straight line through all this, and the big drop has no effect.  I was terrified that the warmies are getting shriller and attacking other sources of temperatures.  But this is noaa!

It's fun again that I can say this is important, and the warmies can say it isn't.  But it's a huge drop.

There is no sign of heat energy coming from the Pacific, so I'll say we'll have another big drop next month.  And it will mean nothing to 'The Narrative'.  

ps.  if this is a world drop, I can imagine the Northern Hemisphere drop.


Cold Blob2 may be starting

 Bob the Blob relocated, maybe to the point where we can't call him Bob anymore.


He's trying to sag, but there is a huge tropical plume eating at him


If he is really going, then by tomorrow we'll have a bigger sag, and the tropical plume will be deflected by 'Blob Power'.  There's no plume after this one.  Blob1 had this same pattern.

The sequence will be that Alberta enjoys 50 below, then down to Texas.  

ps.  the narrative, without physics, is that the jet stream is very strong right now and holding Bob back.


Saturday, February 20, 2021

No more against 'The Narrative'

 I have found, to my great sadness, that the 'narrative' is being pushed harder.  The narrative is 'climate change' and all its great changes.  It started with simply not funding anything that ran counter to it, and has come to a very hard push to get rid of any physics that goes against it.

It is obvious to me that we are getting colder, but there is no more proof of that.  All geophysics is being wiped out.  Soon we will just have staring outside saying 'It's getting colder.'  And then huge amounts of money going into long explanations on how that doesn't go against 'climate change'.

I had hoped that by now there would be some breaks in the cloudy sky, like people doing actual physics, but that's now as scarce as hen's teeth.  We are just going to have endless stories.

I'll follow the Texas Blobs for now, but that doesn't mean much.  I'm going to stop making fun of the UK, now that Spring is coming.  We'll have a nice summer without too many cooling degree days.  July will be fun at the cottage.

Nusa and nuaa have gone beyond merely ignoring physics, they are actively squelching it.  This is not a 'conspiracy' but standard bureaucratic group think.  We have entered the 'Dark Ages' where Aristotle-like declarations and 'consensus' rule the roost.  

There are some huge Pacific tropical plumes coming in, and this is typical Spring weather.  We have one more chance for a big winter push, but it's 50/50.  Thanks.


Bob the Blob Gets Tackled

 


He gets cut off at the knees by the Pacific tropical plumes.  He looks like he'll now follow Al, the Blob1.

He wasn't down far enough to fight the warmth, and will now lick his wounds.  But my hypothesis of blob invincibility has failed.  Back to the drawing board!


Those are very strong plumes and perhaps Bob didn't stand a chance.  But if they blow by, then Bob will sneak down and hit Texas again.


Friday, February 19, 2021

Tropical plumes expected to shatter Bob the Blob

 


Now, here's the challenge between conventional weather forecasting and my hypothesis.  Our 7 day forecast can only start when plumes penetrate the continent.  Even though, it's probably more wrong than right, but who keeps track?  Once the plume hits the land, it doesn't have the chaotic influence of ocean currents and comes in on a straight line.  

Our 7 day forecast now has these plumes hitting us, and it will be warmer.  To do that, they have to destroy Bob.  My hypothesis has them bouncing off Bob, and doing nothing.  If Bob can get by the Great Lakes, then we have some kind of cold.

This is a great test of the hypothesis.  If it is shattered then I shall believe in Polar Vortex Fairies, or maybe not.  It's no big deal to lose a hypothesis, even though lots of people treat it as death.  I know what it is like to propose something threatening to another's livelihood. It's not pleasant, and I'm glad nobody reads me.

Bob the Blob can only be checked at night, when all the day heat is gone.  In fact, that may be the mechanism for movement.  The lower latitudes warm up the bottom section, which rises and becomes less dense.  The cold air moves down, and the warm air settles at night.  It's a marvelous mechanism, easily checked by balloons, financed by Alberta (ha, ha!).  

We'll see in a few days.  If Bob does come down on us, then the warmies will say they predicted this all along, in a big story, after the fact.  And everybody will suck it up.  Yeah for them!


Natural gas prices zoom better than bitpenny

 


Wow, I predicted this years ago, which was totally useless.  The price went down the toilet.  But look at it now!  I think it may have crashed in the last few minutes, since the gas can't be delivered to frozen-pipe Cruise-Country.


This is the fun shot of storage.  My general thought is if the storage goes down to the final slurp, then things get interesting.  But it turns out that Texas has no storage and all their sources are frozen.


This is a chart that warmies should pay attention to, but they don't.  Degree-days are an integration of the general 'coldness'.  They are not a 'spot temperature' that can be cherry-picked.  You would say that a winter has been colder than usual by the degree-days.  The summers can be evaluated by cooling days.

Finally, the central-trumpy US is on its knees.  If Blob2 the Bob breaks through the Great Lakes then there is a total disaster.  No gas at all.  We're okay in Toronto, just turn down the heat on the permanently empty office towers and empty condos.  :)

So, let's all hope the 'Great Lakes Heat Dam' holds.

 ps.  a large normal earthquake in Oklahoma, celebrating the natgas prices.