Friday, December 10, 2021

Get ready for the 70's

 Here we are, at the end of a pandemic.  That new variant isn't anything, so we'll just add the latest covid to our annual flu shot.  But we've got more crap coming.  We can expect a 'temporary' cold spell, and in an undefined time frame, temperatures will go up again.  I'm trying not to provoke the 'gods of carbon warming' here.  That hockeystick guy is on a rampage.

First, we have inflation, a hallmark of the 70's.  The price of food is going up a lot.  The price of everything has doubled.  We now have to look for bargains.

This is not a link, ammie threw me off the associates thing, due to 'not a penny' for me.  I just got this to replace my 5 year old pressure cooker.  This one is great, and really cheap.

I just put in a pork butt for 2 hours, and everybody loves the pulled pork.  Now, I'm making pea soup.  We'll need cheap cuts and cheap food for the upcoming decade.

The 70's was noted for 'stagflation' and interest rates zoomed to over 20%.  We will see interest rates going up next year, and everybody is buying a house to lock in interest rates.  But houses will crash with the new interest rates.  

The 70's depression only ended with a big interest in world trade.  And China came in full blast.  It started with wallymart, and then doolerama, and finally, ammie.  Cheap products were great, but it killed local industry.  Still, I'm not paying twice as much.  :)

It's just a question of how bad the stagflation gets.  Our hopes lie in 3D printing, which should charge a new economy.  And fusion, which is always 30 years away.  When carbon shatters on the rocks of physics, we'll also have a less suppressed economy.  Right now, we are frittering away a lot of money.

ps.  an economy must keep up the growth to handle the population increase.  When that doesn't happen, starving hoards go on the move.  I'm sorry to blame Rome on a lot of this.  These are all forces against a continued economy.  Right now, they are all ganging up for a big crash, but it doesn't mean much.  Houses will go down 50%, but so will everything else.  Nobody will want to buy anything.  Real estate will lose its magic.  This is a standard business cycle.  Japan couldn't get out of it because of the generational thing, we'll do better.  We will climb out of it.


brent said...

Me thinks a lot of people are in for a big surprise. I will still ask for your view on housing.

Harold Asmis said...

The big thing about these cycles is that the world runs out of money. The economy goes below population growth. The 70's is just the modern version of the 30's, but without all the border closures. Everything just gets tired, and the old way of doing things just doesn't fit. Housing does not crash and become a fire sale for wannabees. Everything is unaffordable and people have to jam into one house, like the basement of that 70's show. So, housing will crash in terms of price, but it won't mean much.