Still having aftershocks
Over in Vennie, there are none. That was a clean M8.
The difference is in the post-quake stress distribution. I like to model them with discrete elements, usgs models with solid-steel stress. No fault has ever been found to hold much stress. There was a good hypothesis that the San Andreas must have a lot of heat because of the solid steel grinding, but none was ever found. After that, they abandoned the Scientific Method.
With discrete elements you model it as fractured, with the fault being a lot weaker. That gives a huge stress hole around the faults, like excavating a tunnel. All that fractured rock starts to creep. In the days when I actually ran those models, you could see the discrete elements propagated stress disturbances about 10 times further than a usgs elastic model. I need a lot more coffees before I start modelling again.
I believe that faulty physics probably cost a lot of those lives. For ven, the creep will go to the next part of the fault but not for years. The stresses applied to the fault will be compressive for a while, and not shear.
For phil, the stress hole puts compressive stress on the rest of the fault. That's why they will have another earthquake long before ven, but could be years. I think that 'months' is more likely. As I've said, no diff to the people.
The mere fact of 'no steel' implies both corruption and massive ignorance. You can't get away with putting in no steel. I remember in Cancun, there was a tax loophole that 'no tax' until the building was 'completed'. That's why no building was ever completed. They all had massive forests of reinforcing steel sticking out and waving in the breeze. Once a para-skier had the boat stall. The wind drifted him to the forest, and....
ps this is called falling off the 'standard of living' cliff. I blame lefties for sucking money out of the system to cause this. Nice shiny windmills and solar cells. Every house now has a huge lithium battery.
