State of the Oceans - September 30, 2026

 We are in stagnant air.  There is no plume action from the Pacific.  I do have it from the AI that should El Nino start doing something, it will be obvious with the Pacific Plumes.  Right now, everything is 'Comin' Down the Mountain'.  

Right now, the ninoscreamers are heavily reliant on "The Splotch".  This was created when the AI slipped in a ridiculous base map, of a near-frozen equator.  Nobody works at nooa any more, so it will never be fixed.

THE SPLOTCH

   Since the base map overwhelms the actual data, it will never change.  In fact, I'm in serious trouble about the hot blob staying in the Nino Zone so long.

These things have been just rolling out the bottom, with no effect on the world temperature, but this one is hanging around and actually starts to look like an El Nino.  The reverse cold current from the South is not that obvious on the ocean-current map, but it is still sucking up cold water from the bottom.  Of course, The Splotch is oblivious to all this trouble.

If there were a chance that the current Pacific situation would affect our hemisphere, we would notice a minor bump.  Nada.

Now for something completely different - the North Atlantic

There is zero heat energy pouring into the North.  This will freeze the bejeesous out of the UK.  That whole section should get frozen this year, which is the first time since 1600 or so.

The whole Gulf Stream has failed.  This has been off and on since 2016, but this time I think it is serious.  It is the Pacific that heats the Atlantic.  Not happening this year.  The Gulf of Mexico drives this.

The ice-extent chart is going wild.  The AI keeps trying to tell me this is expected.  Ha.

Starship still destroys engines

 I said originally, that this pig can't fly.  They went with the 'Engineering Tyrant's' forced vision, and dug a big hole in the ground.  That's because he wanted a comic book rocket, nice and shiny with stainless steel.

Since then, they have been scrambling with modifying the rocket.

They started painting it black right away.  You can't tell if it has any SS in it any more.  Probably all carbon.  He wanted a 'pinched tail' but they had physics to fight him.  Now, every launch they are fighting him, and they are still busting engines on launch.

So much fun, and they never mention how close they are loading to the maximum capacity.  I suspect they are still nearly empty.  They are constantly cruising right near the 'damage margin' and a commercial ship must be well over it.  Only racing cars go near that line.

They shave weight and cruise the line.  Maybe next time, no engines blow up.  What is their margin?  This is fun.

A single rocket can only be so powerful.  That's because of the bearing strength of the Earth.  Concrete and giant waterfalls only add 10% or so.  Margins are usually expressed as a factor of two.  

ps whoops, engine thing

Much needed rain coming

 

The Arctic vortex is sending down a spur of very cold air.  

I had a nice time with the AI last night.  I kept hammering on why we don't see anything yet, with the El Nino, and it kept coming back that this was expected.  Anyway, it admitted that we must see increased Pacific Plume activity, in order to affect North America.  This is to start in October.

I don't see any difference between now and the start of last winter.  The Nino-Screamers are depending totally on 'The Splotch', which is is a math error.  For now, just expect the same as last winter.

ps if we have last winter, Europe will be worse.