Friday, October 16, 2026

The mechanics of a real heating event

 By questioning the AI, I found there is a non-linear relationship with heat transfer in the ocean to the atmosphere.  Mainly, at 28C, it may start a little, and rises exponentially to over 32C.  This limits the maximum temperature of the ocean surface.  

Right now, the phoney El Nino has not reached that temperature, and is not heating the world.  Of course, anything can happen in the future, even with no heat energy, as according to the fantasy-sellers.

But now I add another condition.  The water must be moving.  I am not counting typhoons and hurricanes as they are great injectors of heat energy into the atmosphere, but I don't think they are the main mechanism.


This is a picture, of warm, moist air.  The myth-makers call the plumes 'atmospheric rivers, but they only dump water when encountering cold air.  A big miss for these guys.


We combine this with the rain maps.  That big spur on the lower half is our main heater right now.  It shows only in the S Hemi map.


Nothing for we the north.


Smooth as Trump's lies.  The big topography at the beginning of the year was all those heat blobs passing through.  They have now accumulated down south, and form our heater.


You must now combine water temp and rain.  It is my testable contention that heavy rain is a perfect heat shield.  Water vapour goes up, and then rains down.  No loss of heat energy.  However, if the water is moving, you can get heat transfer and powerful plumes.  That one is going right away from the heating zone on the MIMIC map.  

In the old days, a really powerful heating zone seemed to have many micro-vortexes, seen on the mimic.  We won't see any of those for 300 years.


Trump fiddles with the Starlink switch

 Yeah, Trump has decided not to be called a 'blood-thirsty dictator' and will not live-stream shooting a guy in a wheelchair.  He is, however, blinking the starlink off and on for Ukraine, thus killing a lot of them.

He thinks he'll get a few more votes by trading lives for diesel.


I do hope his supporters can afford driving their monster-trucks to the polling stations.


Burlington Earthquakes

 


Whenever I want to take a break, something happens.  This is exciting for today, but it has happened a lot.  There was a big cluster of tiny earthquakes in the good old days.  That's why I really wanted to put seismometers around there, and I was able to fund it through the old company.  

These things probably produced 1 mm/s pgv.  Your 2-buck accelerometer should tell you that.  This is just a sign that water continues to percolate into the giant Hamilton fault, and it should go in 1000 years, more or less.  It was funny that before I put in the seismometers, there used to be a lot of earthquakes out in the lake, some reaching M4.  

Your kids should have had the shake-out drill yesterday, or not.  This is a reminder to use museum wax on your knick-knacks, and don't have heavy shelves over your head, in bed.

To save paper, I'll just throw in the weather.


Looks like a little Pacific air has snuck in, to give us a classic clipper.

ps Dear Burlington, since you are at Ground Zero for the Great Toronto Earthquake, don't read any of my scenarios.