Natgas Starts the November Panic

 

For those that follow me on this and have lost their shirts, I have one word:  Double Down!

The previous panic was squashed by that nasty warm typhoon that hit out of nowhere.  Of course, these things happen.  

Lots of typhoons still rolling in, but not much heat energy.  However, we have the weird situation that the northern vortexes are doing the chaos switching thing.  The Pacific Vortex should hammer down these plumes.

The general physics forecast is for cold.  The US natgas supply can't take a really cold winter.  Last winter was moderated by West Pacific Heat Blobs, but still came out as the worst winter ever, by the Winter Misery Index, which includes heating bills.  

I give 80% that we will get last year, but with cold interest.  The typhoons have a 30% chance of delaying the cold.  El Nino follows AI to the grave.  30% chance of heat blobs coming out of nowhere, as they did last year.  The whole thing makes a fine Binomial Theorem outcome.

I always write as though people are reading me.  A depressing physics evaluation would pop that fantasy bubble.  However, people will notice the cold.

In summary, natgas will hit five bucks by the end of November.  It will go to ten bucks in the February 'OMG!' panic.  No warm cavalry will come to the rescue.  My opinion is as good as any other.

Mucky sliding clipper for Toronto

 

It may give us a bit of snow, but it is not really cold.  

The Greenland White Spot is looking steady.

Our incredible Maine Braided Knot is breaking up.

The Arctic Basin Vortex has fizzed out again.  The triplet chaos vortex continues to flip  energy.

No update on the El Nino bubble.  All in all, I don't think any of this is enough to get the natgas headless chickens to stampede to higher prices.

ps Physics in the Courts

ps yeah, expected soon.

ps never give up, never surrender.  This is the latest official report.

El Nino gone, bring on the Polar Vortex

 Okay, they are going into damage mode, and will soon 'imply', since they won't say anything, that they blew it with El Nino, but that doesn't mean anything.  They will go on with climate change, and the Polar Vortex, and even a little Jet Stream.

For the PV, they imply an energy transfer from a near vacuum, to the sludgy cold of the Arctic.  Mainly, that the big rotation of the stratosphere, holds in the lower cold air, like a bunch of sheep dogs running real fast around the sheep.  When those dogs break up and go have a drink of water, the 'cold sheep' run amuck, and send linear cold storms down on us.  

In the same vein, they say that the Jet Stream has enough energy to move weather systems.  This is all wonderful story telling.

As everybody starts freezing, expect all this wonderful stuff.  If you believe in fairies, clap your hands, but don' take off your gloves.

The 'day of reckoning' has been delayed by the that big typhoon.  We'll make up for that now.

ps in reality, it isn't sheep dogs, but tiny flies way up in the clouds that are controlling the sheep.  The warmies are looking, and any movement of the sheep, they attribute to the flies.