Saturday, December 3, 2022

Physics and Rogue Waves


The in-laws just came back from a trip like that.  The odds are about the same as dropping a thousand feet in a jet.  It all follows the Binomial Theorem. 

The greater chance is in the middle.  The outer edges are where the rogue waves, and giant clear-air convection cells live.

Ah, writing and watching that gif gives me a headache, so I'll stop it here.

ps.  I put some electrical tape on it.  The BT is good for things that are a result of many influences.  It's useless to try to predict, but there are lots of 'boundaries' on such things.  If you are sitting on the deck at the cottage, looking over the lake, you will see many boat wakes.  These wakes cross over each other, and sometimes produce really big waves that seem to march to their own drum.  I always looked for these group waves when I was hauling the kids around on tubes.  Great fun.  

Scam phone calls are very intense right now

 I have Ooma ip phone service, so I can block calls, and there is a common service of blocked calls.  Then, there was the minor crackdown on spam calls.  Now, it's all blown open and I'm getting a lot of calls.

The idea of blocking was that it would be expensive to keep getting new phone numbers for the scammers.  For some reason, they now have access to an infinite number of numbers.  A lot are from Rogers, which is probably desperate by now.  They decorate their phone calls with locations of random cities around the world.

Time to go to the nuclear option of only accepting calls from my contact list.  

Influencers cast a hypothesis


These guys are very hard-core supporters of the fairy stories.  But, they have made a testable hypothesis, which is amazing.  They are basing it on what has always happened in the past.  The Pacific Cold Phase simply 'cannot' last another year.

Although all my geophysics charts are being cut off at the knees, my hypothesis, based on ocean currents, is that the cold phase is in for the long haul.  

The main hypothesis is that ocean currents control our weather, and that recent great shifts are part of larger cycles.  The counter carbon hypothesis is that we have a thermal blanket over us, and that temperatures are expected to climb in a steady manner.  This has not happened, but the hypothesis is dearly held by influencers, and no amount of physics will affect them.

My general opinion is that a continuous Pacific Cold Phase will knock the socks off these guys.  However, they are experts at telling selected stories, and will find someplace hot in the summer.  Only has to be one!

The normal El Nino cycle, which has been blown away, involved tremendous heating of the Pacific equatorial belt, and all that hot water piled up in the far west.  Every 7 years or so, it comes back with a vengeance.  This was easily seen in the ocean current maps, but the weather people don't do any fundamental physics on this.  They only define it by the weather.

The current situation is that the belt is a 'wet wood burner' and requires lots of heat to efficiently gather more heat.  This is a classic 'non-linear' situation.  Right now, it is shut down and we are cold.

A 40 below air glacier is currently barreling down NorthAm, and 20 below one is zooming across Europe.  Air glaciers have zero heat energy, and must be met by tropical plumes to stop.

OMG, SF has ice!  Call out the National Guard!  Right now, Toronto is warmer than them, and I have to laugh at my son, and my wife who is taking care of my #1 grandson.  Of course, Toronto is about to have a big blizzard in a few minutes.

ps.  here is my scenario on how clange will never die.  As we enter the full ice cycle, the ocean plumes shut down, and all continental areas will be 'Death Valley' for 2 months of the year.  The left will only note the maximum day temperatures.  There will be a world pact to never fund geophysics.  The right wing, and Australia, will just resort to shouting.  The left will continue to dabble in engineering and we will have more windmills, slave solar cells, and sanctimonious sackcloth preaching.  They will constantly bemoan the fact that 'nothing is working', like they do now.  There will be more fusion Ponzi schemes.  I will continue to make fun of it, till it's time to go.