Nobody in Ottawa can pass the French test

 

In our family we have endless stories of true Francophones failing the official French test for more money.  This was another test.  What's wrong with flashing pubic hair, I say?

Philippines Earthquake not done yet, Venezuela Earthquake is finished

 This is a tale of two earthquakes.  They were the same in that they had shaking on basins and the pgv was mostly 20-40 cm/s except right on top.  I talk in absolute terms for 80-90% confidence, which is much more restrictive that most media.  As always, I expect that nobody will read this.

Forget the 'Double Tap Crap', this was a standard M8, 100 km long.  They always rupture in fits and starts, and this was well within the norm.  The USGS should not have declared it two earthquakes, a big math error, caused by AI.

Like I've said, the USGS has a model of two steel plates releasing energy, formulated during the steam era.  Totally wrong.  In fact, the rupture resembles an excavation into stressed rock.  The strength of the fault has always been near-zero, and it goes to zero in an earthquake.  I liken this to a recurring volcano.  They are finally starting to see my side, that the magma is resting in a solid container, formed by rock arching, or a hole in the stress.  The next outburst does not come from some sealed-off intake, but from the failure of that stress arching.  Easily measured, and they have done some.  I have the curse of always being right, and never believed.  All influencers are the other way round, with lots more money.

This is now the same for this earthquake.  All that crap about the fault 'nearing the highest stress in 1000 years' is crap.  In 100 years, there may be another earthquake down the railway tracks, but not here.  However, they are on a jelly basin, and must use screw piles, real concrete, and tied-in steel.

Not such a happy picture for the Philippines.  The mechanics of the stress distribution puts increased thrust on the next section, but not on the fault.  We can expect failure and whoosh goes the fault down the tracks.  This was the mechanism for the Christchurch earthquakes.

As for impact on a place already smashed, it might be little or none, or lots.  The seismic motions will be a tiny bit smaller, but many buildings are softened but unrated.  As with the other quake, everybody will go happy-happy into their 'undamaged' building, and smack!  Again, the only way to handle this is as I said with ven.  Also, follow my guidelines in my best-seller book: "So, You Don't Wanna be a Pancake".  Coming out soon.

State of the Oceans - June 29, 2026

 We have reached close enough to July to do this.  I have 3 steady readers because I stick to the Scientific Method.  Nobody else does, because they like to define themselves by dogma, which is a stated position by a celebrity.  The SM puts all the chips on the table for an experiment, and empires may fall.  No way anyone in power is going to do this.

The downside of dogma is that it drifts away from reality, as defined by the basic laws of physics.  You can always think you can fly by flapping your arms, but one day the odds-chickens come home to roost.

My main hypotheses for weather are:  We have a wildly convective atmosphere, including 'invisible' clear air convection.  No way we can have any sort of greenhouse effect.  It's like building a greenhouse without glass.

 The other is that ocean currents convect on their own, with 100 times the energy density of air.  They distribute the heat energy around the world, and the air just tags along.  The dogma has the air driving the currents.

This is the best plot to see what's going on.  The ocean currents have switched the feed to the equatorial belt, showing the start of a Major Ice Cycle (same as the Little Ice Age).  Under this new regime we had a major heating event in 23-24.  Since then we have had reverberations, getting smaller and smaller, and ending now.  You can see it all on this chart.

The heating events go down S-E.  This last one grazed the Nino Zone and flung up the curve.  The poor weather people totally missed the 23-24, and only snuck in references to it as an El Nino when it was done.  That's because it had a huge effect on this curve.

This last heat blob is breaking up.  There will be no great effect on the charts, which seems to be the definition of the day, for these things.  They will give a party, but nobody will come.

Even in the midst of the Little Ice Age, we had 2 weeks of summer.  The mechanics of a heat wave is the Sun overhead and no breeze.  Nothing to do with global trends.  However, the wipe-out of heat energy in the Pacific leads to stagnant pockets.

The currents change day to day.  The big reversal current is above the equator, and is carrying relative warmth (anomaly) but not very hot for the world.  The weather people made the 'Big Mistake' of overlaying an equatorial sea level anomaly over the hot zone.  Only out by a few hundred klicks.  You will never hear about it.

The state of the oceans means a very short, intense summer, followed by snow and cold that will make the last two years seem tropical.  The climate people will simply adjust their dogma, and all will be well.  There is nothing that could get them to admit they are floating on a cloud that is starting to freeze solid, and coming screaming down.  Their groupthink does not lead to a disaster.