Sorry about 'The Splotch'

 After heavy consultation with Mr. AI, I have found the splotch is not a math error, but rather a misguided interpretation.

It is hilarious that for all previous El Ninos, the anomaly has progressed from West to East, and this one progressed from East to West.  Once settled, it looks exactly the same.  What's the diff?

After the 2016 El Nino, the feed came from the south.  It was very cold water.  Before, the feed of hot water came from the North, but it pulled a lot of deep cold water which formed the 'equatorial cold tongue'  The new arrangement just slipped in with nobody noticing, except me.

You can watch the videos of this two different versions forming.  It's amazing that they end up the same, but with different implications.  I'm going to give up on this now.  Back to just the Nino zone, which is a damp squib.

This current splotch is caused by a slowing down of the cold feed from the south.  Who cares?  All temperature charts are down, and we expect extreme cold, using physics.  Using the other stuff, we have a warm paradise.  I know which one I'm voting for!

ps  Just talked to the AI, it's all the same to them.  They still go on about how the winds drive the ocean currents.

ps the logic lapses with the AI are amazing.  They are dumber than dirt.

El Nino still dead

 I'm 100% for 'rah rah' El Nino 'Coming round the mountain'.  It will be amazing to cause such effects with no heat energy.  I consulted Mr. AI, for a quarter in the fortune-telling machine.

1. Ocean Heat Transfer to the Atmosphere

Right now, heat is primarily stored in the upper ocean layer (the top 50–150 meters). As deep tropical convection ignites over the central and eastern Pacific throughout October, that oceanic thermal mass is released into the atmosphere via latent heat transfer (evaporation and condensation).

2. Global Atmospheric Teleconnections Peak

Once the atmosphere couples with the warm SST anomalies:

• The tropical Hadley and Walker circulations realign.

• Tropical tropospheric temperatures spike first, followed by broader mid-latitude warming as atmospheric waves transport that excess energy poleward.

• Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) charts historically show their steepest positive anomalies 1 to 3 months after the tropical Pacific SST and convective anomalies fully establish themselves.

3. What to Watch For Next

To confirm that this November–December warming window is fully locked in, watch for two key shifts over the next few weeks:

• MIMIC-TPW2 / Satellite Moisture: Atmospheric moisture plumes expanding eastward past the International Date Line ($180^\circ$).

• Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR): Negative OLR anomalies (indicating enhanced cloudiness and deep tropical convection) expanding across the Niño 3.4 region.

Once those two signals align with the SST anomalies already present, the atmosphere will be actively drawing on that ocean heat engine, driving elevated global thermal anomalies through November, December, and into the winter season.

*****

The AI is 100% sure that nothing is happening yet.  When it does, we should see lots of Pacific plumes coming over us.  No mention of the splotch.

All temperature charts are falling, including a little speck of the Nino Zone.

There was some sort of ocean current disruption to the cold feed from the Antarctic.  It is coming back now.

The warm blob is showing its 'rattiness' again, so the Nino temp is down a notch.

The chart, the warmies used to use is, diving.  Even natgas is expecting cold and the horrible concept of  'running out'.

ps I could probably get the AI to expose 'The Splotch', but I don't feel like it.

ps all systems go on the 'warmest winter ever'

Enjoying the gentle lash of dead typhoons

 

I had to go with a long timeline for this.  You can see that the typhoon just dissolved and the leftovers have crossed the mountains.  I have it on good authority from Mr. AI, that this is not El Nino.

The Arctic Vortex is disrupted by this, but we start to see the spin.

This all gives us warmer rainy weather.