Physics and Rogue Waves

 Reference

The in-laws just came back from a trip like that.  The odds are about the same as dropping a thousand feet in a jet.  It all follows the Binomial Theorem. 

The greater chance is in the middle.  The outer edges are where the rogue waves, and giant clear-air convection cells live.

Ah, writing and watching that gif gives me a headache, so I'll stop it here.

ps.  I put some electrical tape on it.  The BT is good for things that are a result of many influences.  It's useless to try to predict, but there are lots of 'boundaries' on such things.  If you are sitting on the deck at the cottage, looking over the lake, you will see many boat wakes.  These wakes cross over each other, and sometimes produce really big waves that seem to march to their own drum.  I always looked for these group waves when I was hauling the kids around on tubes.  Great fun.  

Scam phone calls are very intense right now

 I have Ooma ip phone service, so I can block calls, and there is a common service of blocked calls.  Then, there was the minor crackdown on spam calls.  Now, it's all blown open and I'm getting a lot of calls.

The idea of blocking was that it would be expensive to keep getting new phone numbers for the scammers.  For some reason, they now have access to an infinite number of numbers.  A lot are from Rogers, which is probably desperate by now.  They decorate their phone calls with locations of random cities around the world.

Time to go to the nuclear option of only accepting calls from my contact list.  

Influencers cast a hypothesis

 

These guys are very hard-core supporters of the fairy stories.  But, they have made a testable hypothesis, which is amazing.  They are basing it on what has always happened in the past.  The Pacific Cold Phase simply 'cannot' last another year.

Although all my geophysics charts are being cut off at the knees, my hypothesis, based on ocean currents, is that the cold phase is in for the long haul.  

The main hypothesis is that ocean currents control our weather, and that recent great shifts are part of larger cycles.  The counter carbon hypothesis is that we have a thermal blanket over us, and that temperatures are expected to climb in a steady manner.  This has not happened, but the hypothesis is dearly held by influencers, and no amount of physics will affect them.

My general opinion is that a continuous Pacific Cold Phase will knock the socks off these guys.  However, they are experts at telling selected stories, and will find someplace hot in the summer.  Only has to be one!

The normal El Nino cycle, which has been blown away, involved tremendous heating of the Pacific equatorial belt, and all that hot water piled up in the far west.  Every 7 years or so, it comes back with a vengeance.  This was easily seen in the ocean current maps, but the weather people don't do any fundamental physics on this.  They only define it by the weather.

The current situation is that the belt is a 'wet wood burner' and requires lots of heat to efficiently gather more heat.  This is a classic 'non-linear' situation.  Right now, it is shut down and we are cold.

A 40 below air glacier is currently barreling down NorthAm, and 20 below one is zooming across Europe.  Air glaciers have zero heat energy, and must be met by tropical plumes to stop.

OMG, SF has ice!  Call out the National Guard!  Right now, Toronto is warmer than them, and I have to laugh at my son, and my wife who is taking care of my #1 grandson.  Of course, Toronto is about to have a big blizzard in a few minutes.

ps.  here is my scenario on how clange will never die.  As we enter the full ice cycle, the ocean plumes shut down, and all continental areas will be 'Death Valley' for 2 months of the year.  The left will only note the maximum day temperatures.  There will be a world pact to never fund geophysics.  The right wing, and Australia, will just resort to shouting.  The left will continue to dabble in engineering and we will have more windmills, slave solar cells, and sanctimonious sackcloth preaching.  They will constantly bemoan the fact that 'nothing is working', like they do now.  There will be more fusion Ponzi schemes.  I will continue to make fun of it, till it's time to go.  

Fishion Engine - Part 3

 Yeah, the final part.  This design had me endlessly stumbling into scaling problems.  The first problem is that this is a large process, like lightning.  Does it scale down to the atom?  Most likely not, since there are quantum effects, and they seem to be finding these with the latest results.  A big breakthrough will be that the quantum effects actually help the process.  Then, this engine can scale to run your phone.  Neat.

Most likely, quantum screws everything up.  Then there is strength scaling.  I was reading that someone had a high-pressure chemical rocket, leading to a fusion rocket.  They were so happy that it formed 'shock diamonds'.  Really?  A rocket engine totally depends on its cowling to transmit the thrust to the frame.  Diamonds impacting it are no good.  You can't get thrust just poofing flames out a nozzle.  Cowlings don't scale to very large because of strength of materials.  This is 'strength scaling'.

To start things right, we have the FISHION ENGINE - party version.  This produces a huge fountain of popcorn.  The kernels come in and are pre-heated in an air plasma.  Then the pipe produces a big pinch and the kernels are squeezed at a high temperature.  The pipe goes through a patent (sic) jiggler tube to make sure every kernel is at the semi-pop stage.  Then out a nozzle.  There is a blast of steam and a huge flow of popcorn.  It produces thrust against the cowling.  This is magnificent!

We take this to fusion, but we have to wait for several HUGE PHYSICS BREAKTHROUGHS.  But not going to happen since the Scientific Method is dead, and everything you read are incremental improvements (discoveries) that don't scale.  The first hypothesis is the 'semi-pop' state and how to maintain it.    Then we need a plasma pinch and vortex plasma with laser heaters.  This is combination of both efforts.  

I really did this to show that we need to get beyond the hype about 'ignition'.  Not going to help much.  My fusion engine is 30 years into the future.  I'll see you on the other side.

-finished

ps - the flare end will be huge and filled with heat exchangers.  It will be covered with a layer of heavy water for neutron shielding and a constant supply of tritium.  If the quantum effects are bad, then the engine has to be started with a whole nuclear plant pumping it up.  :)

Fishion Engine - Part 2

 This has fascinated me, but I don't think it plays to the crowd.

The second big fusion thing is the bomb.  We start with the fission bomb.  It blows when there is a hunk of U235 so that the neutrons interact.  Again, one atom can just make everything poof and die.  So, they had to confine the core.  This was a big huge steel thing, and dynamite to compress the core initially.  This is strict displacement confinement, good for bombs and not reactors.  The cushion of blast may actually have created 'constant pressure confinement'.

The hydrogen bomb added a bit of tritium in the middle.  The fission bomb compressed and heated the tritium and it exploded.  What they don't tell you is that are two phases, like the popcorn.  One, just to blow, and one totally popped.  The confinement is meant to hold everything until all the tritium is activated.

Pre-activation is common in nature.  An earthquake must have the whole fault at a 'minimal displacement' state.  This can be detected by electrical and magnetic currents.  Sometimes the birds go whacky.  Lightning is the same:  a conduction channel must be formed before the whole thing goes.

It's also the same for firecrackers.  You must design the confinement so that all the fuel is in the 'half-pop' state before it goes.  Same with a steam explosion -- a complicated dance.

Now that we know all this, on to the design that will shake the world.  Literally.  I'm not standing to close to it.  :)

-tbc  (maybe not)

Fishion Engine - Part 1

 Ok, I am haunted by this brilliant insight, just the same as my famous 'Water Laser'.  All of which will be safely ignored in our era of influencer hype.  

The only two fusion things we got going are the Hydrogen Bomb, and the Sun.  Both work on exactly the same physics, but nobody would say that.

How does the sun do this trick?  It has a low Rayleigh Number, and thus, violent convection.  The same as the atmosphere on Earth.  If it was thick, like Venus, and the clange version of Earth, there would be no fusion, and I wouldn't be sitting here, wasting typing-finger energy.

The key to fusion is 'Constant Pressure Confinement'.  That's nearly impossible to get.  All easy confinement is 'Constant Displacement' like a pressure pot.  A diesel engine comes close, but the piston motion is mostly dictated by external forces.  I doubt it come close to constant pressure.

The Sun does this with violent convection.  Cold fuel (hydrogen) sinks in convection cells.  With gravity, it reaches a point where the heat and pressure can start the fusion process.  However, the first atoms that pop (with neutrons) destroy the whole arrangement.  This is like a kernel of popcorn.

The cell must be kept in a state of constant pressure, and the pressure must be such that we only get a 'semi-pop', like the popcorn kernel must cracked and ready to split.  This happens easily with a convection cell.  But, the cell cannot rise until all the fuel is in the ready state.  Otherwise, there is no energy.  The cell then starts to rise, and create heat energy as we get the full pop.

It is exactly the same with the bomb.

-- tbc

The march of the 40 below cold blobs

 While I wait for the mimic maps to clean up (we have to wait until the first guy comes in) we can go to a lovely cold phenomenon that has no explanation.

Vancouver is being hit by a 'Pure Cold Cyclone'.  Every other cyclone (or storm) has the head of an ocean plume in the middle.  But this one has no plume.  As all our plumes fade to dust, we are getting new things that would have been wiped out by plumes.

The people cry "Oh mighty gods on high, give us an ad-hoc explanation for this."

And the high priests answer with 'Polar Vortex Fairies".  Oh, those mean fairies!

Back to the main topic:  There is still a bit of break-up on the chart.

The guy is working from home.  The blob front is poorly defined because it is only pushing cold air.  When pushing warm air, we get that nice glacial front.

However, on the temperature chart, which always runs, we have clear 'air glaciers' descending on NA, and Europe.  Even Plain Spain is freezing!

The Toronto has -10C at the tip of the long forecast.  We'll see that forecast go much lower, but Toronto is protected by the lakes.  

The Europe cold blob is pushing the Atlantic plumes.

The UK finally realizes the impact, just yesterday, they were saying how warm it was.  The official explanation will be 'Dancing Jet Stream'.  

ps.  it's sad that all these places need good long-term forecasts.  The official forecast for 50 years is 'increasingly warm', which was the original forecast, without side-notes.  Why bother with snow equipment that burns carbon?  Better to invest in more solar panels, and wind mills. 

Physics Hates Fusion - Part 2

 Now, we get to the part where things don't scale.  That is a classic physics thing that destroys all the big dreams.  Bitcoin expanded exponentially, but processing transactions was linear.  No good.  The physics of a tiny tube of CO2 does not scale to the atmosphere.  

But fusion is a diesel engine and that should scale, right?  No, you have to look right at the atoms or fuel molecule.  The O2 hits the diesel fuel and combines to form CO2 and other things, all with a lot of vibration, which is heat energy.  You can have a whole bunch of atoms involved and the output is solely defined by the amount of fuel.  Neat and easy to control.

BIG NOTE!  This caused a big creative brain storm, which is bad in my old age.  I designed my own thing -  FISHION ENGINE, which solves a lot of problems, but still runs into endless scaling problems, but I thought I could thread through them.  However, since it was dream, it has faded, which is fine.  Who wants to go against the Establishment.  They would have to be introduced to basic physics!  

In the end, the two established approaches - bomb, or sun, don't have milestones where you would say 'It's all downhill from here.'   It's all bitcoin hype, and if you had any money, buy lottery tickets.  :)

**Note to the hypers - Nobody reads me.  

ps.  apparently everybody and their dog are hyping the equivalent of the FISHION ENGINE, with no details whatsoever, and they are getting a lot of money, and have only demonstrated chemical engines.

pps.  it's ironic that the FISHION ENGINE cannot see the light of day in a world run by influencer hype.  A Ponzi scheme has the physics that it cannot scale.  It just collapses under its own weight.  An ad-hoc Ponzi scheme such as clange, gets so many hind-sight adjustments that it also collapses.  All these fusion schemes are run the same way as the Big One, run by nasa.  

Physics Hates Fusion - Part 1

 

I know that no reader of mine has any money, but don't put any money into this.  They are all about impressing the influencers, and raising money, but they ignore important physics.  You would think these guys are all into the Scientific Method, but they have left that train a long time ago, and are into the hype that impresses people these days.

Just think of fusion as a diesel engine.  You compress and heat the fuel to the point where it produces heat energy.  The diesel piston then expands and converts the heat energy into work, or useful energy.  It's cyclic -- the piston goes down and comes back up.

Fusion is exactly the same.  You compress and heat the fuel, and it 'fuses', releases heat and a lot of neutrons.  How to convert this to something useful?  All the excitement right now is getting the fuel to 'combust' but not just a single atom.  They need something 'sustained'.  Is this a milestone for investment?

--tbc

Conditions right for a really big cold blob

 

The Pacific plumes have gone straight to the Arctic now, setting up the Big Chocolate Fountain that we had a few weeks ago.  

I haven't seen the classical signs of it, but this time it will be much colder, as the season progresses.  We've been just getting swirly air off the Prairies, and this is our latitude default weather.  Toronto can also count on a few degrees because of the lakes.

The guy next door has decided to do some concrete pouring.  This is usually fine in December for Toronto, but wait for the 20 below blob.  But, uncertainties dominate, and he might be golden.

That's -20 heading to us, and -50 in the Arctic.  This is warmer than usual way up north.  When the blob comes, you'll see a deflection at the Great Lakes, but we'll get snow instead.

In short, we should soon expect a smooth-front blob at 50 below in Edmonton.  We can watch them play 'Frozen Blue Jeans' again.  If I don't see the beginnings of it in the next few days, I'll eat my virtual hat, and that has to be better than what the dog picked up on our walk right now.  :(

Apple Juice Turns to Rivers of Blood

 

I think the only way that the Juicer could make things cheap enough for the influencers to buy, was to use slave labour in China.  This will come back to bite the apple.  I never liked them anyway, so I put up this lurid headline.  However, I really, really, want to buy a cheap drone from China, but I am firmly sitting on my computer hands.  I think we should all take one Chinese toy off our Christmas list.  :)

I wonder where Europe is getting all those solar cells?

Alberta earthquakes declared 'natural'

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I can't enter a philosophical dispute here, because there is no physics.  I am quite sure that there is not enough seismometer coverage to determine the depth accurately.  You need strong-motion sensors right on top of the zone to determine depth.  I'm quite sure that they were caused by injection that somebody isn't telling us about.  How else are they getting rid of excess fracking water?  What about all those wells right on top?  

This is just another case where I will take my relaxing stuff and not worry.  Like Texas, it is in the middle of nowhere, and will only be noticed when the 7's come in.  Perhaps, as in other parts of Texas, there will be a quiet word to stop injecting.  Who knows?

Inquiry finds the usual stupidity in Ottawa LRT

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There is no greater engineering disaster (right now) than the Ottawa LRT.  Other disasters, such as the Niagara Tunnel, can just hide, but they are trying to make this work.

The inquiry does all the usual things, and can be said to have done nothing.  Off to the next disaster.  However, just to be nice for Christmas, we can say that 90% of infrastructure construction is doing fine, just horribly late and expensive.

Pacific plumes remain weak

 

You can see the plumes are just curling back on each other.  However, there is one slashing plume hitting the west coast that will bring up a Gulf plume for a one day warm spell in Toronto.

The Atlantic plumes are spindles and cannot fight the cold blob.

This will be called a 'beast from the east' and will give the UK some snow.

Using game physics, I prefer to call these things giant clashes.  All of this is driven by convection, that great secret which is ignored by the influencers.  

Linux - The day cifs died

 My little zoneminder computer was going great, until the day it became a brick and I had to reinstall.  Apparently, the concept of writing to a samba file was suddenly thrown out the window, and the little root partition totally filled up.

I could not get zoneminder to write to samba, no matter what I tried.  I looked it up and this has happened time and time again with no solution.  Drat, not that again.

Anyway, I converted it all to nfs and it is working again.  Linux is wonderful, except when it isn't.  :)   One day it will be fixed again.  At Linux is so mucked up that there will never be any ransomware attacks.  It's hard enough to get the regular programs to run.  :)

State of the oceans - Nov 30, 2022

 I hate to do this without the ocean current map, but that poor thing has left the building.

We can track ocean currents by the temperature.  In all the times I had information of both, they are always on top of each other.  After the big 2016 swing, both the North Pacific and Gulf Stream currents stopped transferring heat.  They could no longer be seen on this map, as they once were.  The GS gave the UK a fools paradise, in that their surrounding ocean water gave a Carolina climate.

Now they are firmly in line with their latitude, and that gives them Newfoundland weather.  

I believe the Pacific Cold Phase is here to stay.  It keeps getting stronger, but nobody can rate it's energy.  They just make up fancier stories, like how carbon shifted the oceans.

The restoring force for the Cold Phase is running out of cold water from the Antarctic.  Then it will go back to the old pattern.  I wouldn't hold my breath, and to Australia I say "How long can you tread water?"

Cluster of earthquakes in Alberta

 

Six earthquakes around M5.  It made quite a splash on my email this morning.

You can see the central point is right beside a lot of oil and gas wells.  These are thrust earthquakes, so we have to go with injection.  

Two big cold blobs

 

The NA one is forecast to hit Toronto.  They generally underestimate them.  The Europe one is the same as last time, there's a question on how far it can get into the Atlantic plumes.  Might finally give Spain Guy some water.

Ocean plumes turn off

 

The Pacific plumes have turned off right now.  That means we don't get any dramatic weather for a while.  We just get 'default weather' which is dry and dependent on the latitude.  If we didn't have the wild convection of the ocean plumes, or ocean currents, then we would just have rings of weather on the Earth, like Jupiter.  

In Toronto, there should still be some Gulf plumes coming up, but these look very weak right now.  Without these plumes, Europe would be dry as a bone.  

Tyrants in Trouble

 There is a short-term advantage in being a tyrant.  You get to eliminate all the fluff and get things done by threatening to kill people.  That's a great motivation.  You get a sense of that with the Canada Emergency Act hearings.  This is really a declaration of war.  You needed it because so many levels of government were being incompetent.  

We normally hear about democracies in trouble and turning into tyrant-lands.  The US almost had that with Trump.  Now, the tyrants are fading fast:  Trump, China, Iran, Russia, Musk, etc.  What are the root causes (physics) of tyrant decline.

The essence of tyrantery is that one man takes central command.  He starts killing anybody with brains, who are a threat.  He does a few great things that would have happened anyway.  He cuts through the huge overhanging mass of stupidity.  Then what?

Russia and China show that people can get depressed and suicidal.  It doesn't work to threaten them with death.  They start suicidal protests.  Russia, China, and Iran are there now.  The Taliban have a while to go.  As well, all the people that enforce death become unstable.  It's a tremendous toll to constantly have to kill people, and they give up.  

Finally, the tyrant himself thinks he is God.  That always results in a giant stupid decision.  Hitler and Napoleon invaded Russia.  Russia invaded Ukraine.  China is locking everyone in prison for Covid.  Iran kills all the women.  Trump doesn't pay taxes.  It all leads to the end.  

West coast cold blob just skims the mountains

 

The cold blob is quite denser than most of the air, so it can't go over the Rockies.  Cold blobs for the rest of us must start up North, past the end of the mountains.

No other cold blobs can be seen right now.  

New cold air blob coming for us

 

Hasn't been any sign of a cold blob for a week now.  Everything is in turmoil.  Now we see a nice one sneaking down the Bering Straight.  

You can tell the strength of a blob by the amount of wind behind it.  In this case, the wind backs up to the North Pole.  It's coming down from far west, so it might not hit Toronto.  We'll see another one soon.

In other news, Australia is saying good-bye to skin cancer, while nude, in the rain.

They used to have hot sun, beaches, and skin cancer.  If the Pacific cold phase stops, then they can have it again, in 20 years, enough to stop all the cancer.

Still not seeing it weaken.  Maybe next year.

Basic physics is cool again

 Reference

"I could never get bored in her class," reads one of the comments on the egg drop video. In another video about inertia, she can be seen striking the handle of a knife with a mallet, forcing a potato up the blade. A user wrote, "How have I gone 35 years without seeing or knowing this?"

She has revived Mr. Wizard, and is seen by millions of viewers.  The big US research institutions banned physics for political expediency.  Unfortunately, the table tricks required to catch the attention of viewers do not scale to larger things.  Perhaps she could do an audio book?

I hope this is a trend.  Physics and the Scientific Method will become big again as we all freeze.

Toronto real estate down 30% -- but no blood on the floor

 

I think it was 4 years ago when the Chinese suddenly left the Markham housing market.  My relatives were selling their house, and poof, it was the last one sold at the big price.  I had called an end to the market, like I did in 2007.  

Then Covid, and really bizarre changes in the housing market.  For a while, every 3 bedroom 60's house in the neighbourhood sold for exactly 1.4 million.  I was stunned.  Now we are going over the cliff, but nothing is happening.  I think we'll all have a nice Christmas and see what happens in the Spring.

There should be something happening, but there isn't.  Nobody feels the need to sell into the falling market.  Everybody can hold onto the higher interest rates.  In a normal world, we would expect something like the bitcoin fall, but not here.  

Miserable November

 This is the November weather of my childhood.  Not that nice, warm thing of the last hot cycle.  Taking the dog for a walk, I went around the corner and into the full blast of wet, yucky weather.

All the patterns are changing.  Nothing decisive yet.  The ocean temperatures are still dropping.

We'll be starting the weird double-seasonality of the ocean temperatures.  We'll be going up for S Hemi summer.  Of course, it will be a wet summer for Australia.  I would plant peas in my garden down under.

Polar Vortex Fairies are Back

 

I love stories, and these are the best.  Next, we'll have the Dancing Jet Stream.  

It's funny that I brought up physics charts, and the warmies are bringing up tons of charts.  They are all rather ridiculous, and it seems that they are just going through a chart closet and bringing out the ones that agree with them.  Next month it will be different ones.

I am happy that they can't tell one chart from another.  It means that useful physics charts will continue to be produced, as they could suddenly support the warmie position.  

The physics is about heat flow.  For some reason, the Earth isn't getting any heat.  That leads to our ice age.  This leads to lots of philosophical fun, but wait until next year!

ps.  the best physics magic story ever:

Lots of earthquakes again in Texas

 

A bunch, near the M5.3 but these are M5's.  I would generally round out the number because of sparse seismometer coverage.  

You could not have a more isolated site.  I can't see any roads for the injection sites, but this is a huge injection zone.  All the earthquakes that happened in Oklahoma a while ago, are now happening here.

Normally, this would be nothing, but the size of the zone is an M6 or 7, ready to happen.  The next big earthquake will be an M6 - strike/slip, if we are lucky.  You should get 10 M6 earthquakes before one M7.  Oklahoma was up to about 5, and it shut down, due to the price of natgas going to nothing.  We will see about this one.  An M7 will do nothing here, but will be felt for a thousand miles.

ps.  this is exactly like OK where I was always complaining about the bad rock mechanics (physics) of the big wigs.  In the end, it closed down, and this new one opened up.  Nobody learned a thing.  I think it will be like that for clange, everybody will just accept that being a lot colder is just part of it.  No big wig needs to be worried.

Fog of the 60's returns

 One thing about being old is that 'what goes around, comes around.'.  We had such pea-soup fog in the 60's and never had those again.  It could have come from burning coal at Lakeview.  But here it is again!

Nothing much new on this chart.  Looks like there will be a big hit of a Pacific plume on the Arctic cold mass.  This is like breaking in billiards.  You never know where the cold is going to break out.  A few weeks ago, we got the 'Chocolate Fountain' of the air bouncing right back and pouring over NA.  This time, it could be Europe's turn.

A slashing Pacific plume has brought up the Gulf air.  This is a hard mechanism, and it would be fun to do physics on it.  One plume is hitting the Yukon.  In the past, this has always brought down a good clipper, but the last one was more warm than cold.  

In Europe, the Atlantic plumes remain down, giving everybody cold, mixed weather.  Looks like Spain Buddy is finally getting his rain.  

ps.  No rain in Spain.  He's getting a direct hit of a plume, but it keeps it's water for someone else.  He needs a cold blob hitting that plume.

Pacific plumes to be hitting high again

 

Pacific plumes are going straight north again.  So that gives us another two weeks of blustery cold.  I've taken out my broccoli, because the ground was frozen.  Right now, we have straight-west Pacific breezes which are sunny and cool.  This is the bottom half of the big clipper we saw a few days ago.  Buffalo had the impact of the top half.

The Atlantic plumes are hitting low, so that Europe should be cold, but there is a backwash at the end, bringing up warm air.  There is no sign of a cold blob.

I have no idea why they think something is coming from the East.  However, the UK is just going to be very cold with no plumes hitting it directly.

How to destroy the Earth in one easy step

 

That's simple - do this crap.  It's amazing that not one 'Great Solution' has worked for our imaginative Left.  All that's left for them is to tell people to live without heat.

The fundamental problem is that you can't do engineering without physics.  Let's spray sulphur all over the world -- what could go wrong?  Anyway, I won't say anything more.

Google walks in the Valley of Bye-Bye

 

The number 10,000 is the 'in' thing these days.  Whereas muskie just fires everybody, and Ammie fires the losing devices division, Googs is caught on 'what to do'.  They have gone the bureaucratic route.  

Every low-level bureaucrat is paid by the number of warm bodies under their control.  They pump up the performance ratings willy-nilly.  Nobody is going to say 'They are all losers, and me, too.'.  The old company went through this all the time.

What happens is that all the bright people leave, because they have other options.  The losers go turtle.  Like the old company, Google has a monopoly and high margins.  I wish them luck.

ps.  

They are raising the spectre of everything going kablooey.  These are all high-margin companies trying to go to lower margins, and higher volumes.  It has never been done in history.  IBM had to sell the PC business, and went into 'services' which is high margin, but their flops caught up with them.  It's like Eatons (high margin department store of my childhood) becoming Costco.  However, just because something is impossible, doesn't mean the group-think goes away.  Fun to watch.

Oceanic plumes are in a tizzy

 

This is a situation where all patterns are breaking, and we don't have a clue what is going on.  The Pacific plumes are now going around the clock, starting straight North, and whipping around to South.  A new set of plumes is forming, but with no physics -- no idea.

We can still call the Atlantic plumes as being low, so that Europe will be mixed cold.  No big cold blobs have appeared.  All in all, a time to hunker down and wait it out.  Most likely, the Pacific plumes will just do the whole dance over again, but the uncertainties are high.

Pacific plumes move to standard clipper formation

 

A standard NA clipper is sliced bread with cold peanut butter.  We had a week of the 'chocolate fountain' which was unusual, and poured down swirled air on us.  A clipper is linear, where the Pacific air pulls down Arctic air.  We can expect that to be cold and snowy.  Strong clippers hold back the warm Gulf air.

Over in the Europe, it is still mixed with no clear air blobs.  I haven't really followed Europe air patterns over the decades.  In the past, when the Gulf Steam was a thing, the Gulf plumes hit higher and kept the Arctic ice back.  Now, the plumes are hitting lower, allowing Arctic air.

Can we throw another lump of coal on the fire, Mr. Scrooge?

Physics of Snow Streamers

 Today, I take a break from irritating the powerful, and look at a wonderful local thing  -- the snow streamer.

This is the radar.  Snow streamers will form a thick line, and then pour down white terror on anybody in that river.  

This is the wind field and you can see that it curves.  Lake Erie snow is making all the way to the East Coast.  What is the physics behind this?  Ha, I fooled you.  I don't do 'explanations' that you can put in a popular book.  There is  no physics these days.

If anybody did do physics, then there are just questions -- Are these rivers the exact same mechanism as the oceanic tropical plumes?  Does it go into a river right at the beginning, or is this forced in order to successfully travel?  These are all wonderful questions that will never be answered.

I remember being in a stationary streamer in London, Ontario.  The rate was more than an inch an hour.  Drive a little way down the road and it was gone.  

ps.  have you noticed that there are no more explanations of the cold using 'Polar Vortex Fairies', and the 'River of the Jet Stream' pushing cold?  It's all La Nina and how it will disappear tomorrow.  

State of the Oceans - Nov 19, 2022

 Ok, so I'm always waiting for the ocean current report, but they are getting later and later.  I do a video of the currents, but it is so dependent on the distribution of Argo floats.  The big question is 'How strong is the Pacific Cold Phase?'  That is what is controlling the world weather right now.  

I just have this one picture.  All geophysics is shutting down on the Internet.  Those guys with the charts had a good party when we had the warm cycle.  And now, they are stunned and hiding the results.  

I consider all these charts to be 'endangered species'.  Who is going to pay them to go against the group-think?  Yeah, they are dead.

The fun thing is that it is just getting colder and snowier.  I just read an article that all the snow belt lake effect snow is a result of global warming.  They are also saying the same thing for the big ocean current shifts.  My general rule is that when a system is 1000 times more energetic than a smaller system, the smaller system leaves the building.  

Huge currents from the Antarctic are flooding the Pacific equatorial belt.  This is being ignored, and labelled as the tiny little sister 'La Nina'.  However, that's sexist.  She has grown to be a full woman, taking control of her destiny, and whapping big brother El Nino on the head.  

I feel sorry for Australia who now have to live with mushrooms growing in their hair.  They never read my blog or the ashes of Mastodon, so they can just look up at the sky and wonder.

ps

pps.  I now have a solid 8 readers:  

You had 344 users in September, 8 came back in October, which means 3.1% of your users returned to your site.

more:  Whew.  The warmiest of forecasters says it's all over.

The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. We are currently in a La Nina phase, entering its 3rd and final year, which is a rather rare occurrence.