Sunday, December 4, 2022

Amazon Loses Ponzi Froth


It was well-known that Ammie was constantly subsidized by the increasing stock price.  This is Ponzi Froth.  Whether it is a Ponzi Scheme is totally defined on the extent of the 'retrenchment', from 20% to total collapse.

Amazon won't collapse instantly, it just has to make money.  An actual income has nothing to do with Mr. Ponz.  We shall see.  

A really big problem is 'Margin Reduction'.  Margin is the overall 'income' over the cost of the product.  Something like Costco lives with 30%.  Old Eatons had 100%.  MS in its heyday had 300%, the same as old IBM.  I have never found that any company can survive cutting the margin.  The margin is built-in to every molecule of the company.  Does it have a big sales staff with expense accounts?  Does it have fat middle management.  Are half the workers like me?  

No company can slash through the middle and survive.  That's because all the bright people flee.  Being a survivor is as bad as being set 'free'.  Ammie thrived by cornering the market on bright programmers, and these people thrive by being left alone in the bureaucracy.  The slashing destroys that stability -- I know from my own experience.

ps.  to protect myself, please note that there are very high uncertainties.  Amazon could be totally capable of blowing away the froth and getting to the beer.  All my influencer buddies say so.  :)

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