Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Alaska clairslide starts

 This is very early in the game and uncertainties abound.

We have the -40's there, bordering on -50.  Zoom in on this and you'll see the classic clairslide lobate pattern forming.  I don't know if it can cut through the mess, perhaps a solid -50 would be best, but there is a plume pushing it out.  You can only get one really big clairslide at a time because it empties the whole Arctic.  

The first hint of strength will come from Edmonton when they get -50 and they show all the photos of clothes freezing on the line.  It will end with -20 in Texas, if it goes.  So, there's a 10% chance that natgas prices will zoom.

If that plume rides down at 45 degrees, then it is a classic Alberta clipper.

ps.  it has hit Edmonton with about -20.  Nothing big yet.  Yellowknife is going to -40.

pps.  it's fighting a rising Gulf plume, but still going.

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