Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Boeing, Tesla, SpaceX, Samsung

I am detecting a reckless disregard for long odds.  Of course, this trend has been going on for a long time, but we are now seeing the fruits of stupidity.

It works like this.  You can be adventurous, take ridiculous risks, and be absolutely fine for small batches, or infrequent climbing of dangerous mountains.  Why wear avalanche beacons?  

We call these people, who beat the odds, heroes.  Muskie took high risks and he's rich enough to ignore demands to shut up on twits.  So, in their designs, they beat the competition by living with 1 in 1000 of a big disaster.  Samsung put out a folding design without any dust protection.  Yeah, what an innovation!

Everything is fine and dandy until you climb your one thousandth mountain.  Or you produce giant lithium batteries at a huge scale.  How about packing a crew capsule with giant rocket engines?  This is such fun.  Boeing drove down the odds to one in 10,000, but produced thousands of planes.

So now we have planes that crash, cars that explode, etc.  All because they were successful with an aggressive design and then produced in volume.

These people all need an adult in the room who says "Alright, that's good to get the world's attention, now we have to scale up.".

Expect more of these disasters.

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