Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Another slight wobble in world temperatures - the basic physics explained - Part 1

 Okay, that crazy guy has gone into air conditioning, so he has settled out.  Today, we do our annual review on what is happening in the world, according to the Scientific Method, and the Laws of Physics.  None of this has anything to do with Influencer Science, which is just stories, acclaimed by popularity.

This whole clange thing started when we had two major temperature cycles combining.  The short cycle happens over decades, and the last cold period was the 70-80's.  That was the last time we had good blueberries at the cottage.

You can see these cycles perfectly with the one tide gauge in the world not rising or sinking.  Every one of these cycles in the past has some history associated with it.

Then we came into a much larger cycle, and this was determined, by popularity, to be 'not normal'.  The temperatures follow a binomial theorem, where 'excursions' are normal, but always denied.

It is exciting that the main 'rise' in world temperatures is associated with the modern satellite era, and nothing else.  That temperature is falling now, but I expect it to remain high.  I suspect it has more to do with the satellite record being very susceptible to 'low energy' events, such as very shallow hot water, spread by ocean currents.

On other charts, we see distinct peaks of temperature.  

While writing this, I am stunned that RSS updated their plot.

These peaks come out clearer than the nooa plot.  The last peak is huge, but is collapsing.  Every one of these 'post 1997' peaks has been associated with a big ocean current event.  The big one was a total reversal of current, showing the classic 'El Nino' effect.  Since then, we have been getting smaller and smaller 'reversals', each showing a peak.  The final one was last year, and had a huge effect.  It was not the 'official' El Nino, which was just a shallow current, and totally fooled the weather people.

- to be continued

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