How many years has it been since the kids could toboggan on Christmas Day? Can't remember.
No ocean tropical plumes can be generated in the middle of the Pacific Ocean right now. You need over 30C, and it is very cold right now. So, we get weak plumes generated from far away. We've had the 'pinwheel pattern' for a while now, and this drags up warm Gulf air. For Christmas we are going to get the weather from a strong hit to the middle.
Hit the Alaska armpit - Toronto freezing spit
Hit the southern ports - Shovel snow in shorts
Hit in between -- Toronto icy sheen
Thus, we can predict the weather. :) As a translation, if the plume hits high, then we get Alberta clippers, and 40 below in Muskoka. Toronto is always warmer because of Lake Ontario.
A hit at Vancouver, then we get mucky freezing weather.
A slashing pinwheel to the south, then we get warm winter weather.
ps. if we are really good, we can get an ice lock. That's everything frozen to 30 below, and no plumes can penetrate. In July, we get a heat lock, where no ocean plumes can give us a speck of a breeze.