The definition of 'runs out' is that they must go to extraordinary measures. You won't see any big announcements on this. I just give it a 'good chance' that it will happen next week. This is what I have predicting all year, and the gunk hits the fan now.
You'll notice that they didn't put much in storage this year, and this year is colder than last, and next will be colder still. They rely on the temperature turning today, as it did last year, which just skimmed the bottom of the 5 year curve. But it's going to crash through the bottom.
That's because we got another 'polar vortex' which is really just cold air filling in behind the warm plume. This one might also be driven a bit by a high plume. The demand for natgas is going to be huge.
If storage cracks through the bottom, we don't know what that really means. Do they have room to draw more than the the 5 year band? I'm thinking not. Nobody is going to freeze. It just means that the spot price is going through the roof and some industries will have to close. If the extreme cold goes to mid-April, as it may, then it's another story.
Spot price in the North East. Should be fun soon.