Australia totally soggy because of El Nino

 Reference

Because of the millions of dollars going into 'foregone conclusion' studies confirming greenhouse gases, carbon warming, and El Nino, I am going full speed into going along with this.

When I first realized this was a "special" (air quotes) El Nino, I said that Australia would be soggy.  It is always super dry during a normal El Nino.  Lots of money was going into wheat futures.  This article goes on about the wettest November on record, and it's all due to a fickle response of Australia to this " El Nino.  Not the 'specialness' of this El Nino.

Zooming into NA, we can see that the warm side of the clipper is ending, and we are getting an Arctic blob.  This is shaped by the 'permanent' cyclone over Hudson Bay, and this cyclone will stay until the whole bay is frozen over.  The amount of heat energy being released to sustain this, is probably more than a few nukes.

The influx of warmth over the mountains has stopped, but it is bringing up Gulf air.  This was the normal pattern for Pacific plumes to cross North America.  Natgas is staying dirt cheap.

It was only the Australia article that got me going, with my tremendous enthusiasm for all things El Nino.  I'm making a t-shirt -- Millions of dollars?  Gotta be true.

Physics of the Arctic channel flow -- the double bubble math problem

 

This is not a math problem.  Can you imagine getting 'pure maths' people involved?  I'm just using it because I don't want to draw anything, and my poor dozen readers are hit on the head enough times.

I'm using this to show the Arctic bubble of cold air that is 'breathing' right now.  Soon it won't be breathing, but just bleeding cold air in channels.  This bubble forms when the Arctic is not disturbed by nasty warm air plumes.  That's when it hits 60 below.

That bubble builds up to the stratosphere, which is near-vacuum and gets to 90 below and colder.  So, it's really a scoop of ice cream and it starts to bleed, and makes a mess because of density.  Early in the fall, we can get huge lobate (arcs) blobs.  Something like that hit Texas a while ago.

But blobs are not the worst, it goes to channels because the channels 'dig' their way into the earth and make it easy for continuous flow.  Once a channel establishes itself, it never stops.

Okay, I can hear my geologist reader saying 'Bloody air won't dig into rock', and that's true.  The physical train track for the continuous air flow isn't a physical trench, but a trench made of extreme cold.  The land or sea gets all the heat sucked out of it, and it remains a log chute for the cold air spill.

You don't want to have one of these carved over you.  So what do we have for proof?  That's hard to find because the warmies have cut off all the funds for the necessary physics and the Scientific Method.  According to them, all physics stopped in 1850.  nosa and nooa stopped all SM work, and only send satellites and balloons to look for 'safe' things that confirm their groupthink.

But we have Siberia last year.  The air flow carved a channel that lasted all winter.  Nobody reported on it, and, of course, nobody studied it.  Since it was Siberia, it could safely be ignored.  However, it spun out a huge number of cold-driven storms that soaked California.  Did you ever hear an explanation for that?  Also, it gave Toronto a mild winter.

This year I have been predicting a channel carved over the UK, which will give continuous -30 and 'freeze the Thames', if that concrete ditch could be frozen over.  I based that on historic accounts of the Little Ice Age, which suggested that these channels move around.  One may be carved over Edmonton, which will soak Texas in -20, all the time.

It is difficult to carve the channel over water, but ice is a different story.  Topography around the Arctic prevents channels going over highlands, so they only carve in a few places.  The nice thing about channels is that everybody outside of them can ignore everything that is going around them.  Selective observation is the foundation of group think.

If any other new readers comment, along with their interests, I can make up new analogies for them, as well.  I won't count readers over a dozen.

ps. this article is too horrible.  I'm stopping again, unless I get some new reader comments.  Nothing good comes from freezing people to death...

pps.  thank goodness nobody will read me again.  There will be millions of dollars spent to prove that physics doesn't exist.  I can give up.

I like how 'extreme weather' is all about freezing.  That darn El Nino...

UK gets a full channel flow -- semi-warm

 

Not that cold yet, because the Greenland Gap is still open.

Greenland doesn't have that full rosy white glow, so the Arctic is still recharging, like an exploding cheap lithium battery.  A fireman told me that all the fires this year were those things.

ps. this flow seems to have deflated the blob over Europe that I saw yesterday.

pps. Sweden freezes, goes for nuclear.  Germany next?

more:  for Toronto, we are getting messy clipper action.

Canada to export the Darlington reactor design

 Reference

With the Return of the Little Ice Age, the whole weather thing has become boring.  I can go back to my old love of reactors and earthquakes.

Actually, not earthquakes, because we are in a big lull, and nobody cares about them.

Here's the speed dating version of Canadian reactor history -- candu (really, can-do!), was made because we had no access to enriched uranium.  Now, everybody wants enriched-using tiny reactors because enriched U from Russia was a dime a dozen -- oops!  Now it's back to c-doo.

We slowly bumped up the energy density and total output of each reactor by bumping up the heavy water flow through the fuel channels -- willy nilly, without physics.  I loved helping to build Darlington, but it is an insidious design.  Now, we get to do the same thing all over the world.  The reactor lifetime is 20 years.  

Of course, with only a dozen readers in the whole world, we are slaves to the PR departments, and this is a great fantasy story.  I only read those, because 'real' novels always muck with the physics.

Our fun in the future comes from having no enriched fuel for the Darlington toy reactors, and Bruce trying to put a full candoalot 4 reactor unit on the Bruce C site, that I dissed many years ago.  Remember that they tried to put a reactor on Lake Erie, but it is going to start freezing solid again.

We also have the deep hole -- II, for waste disposal in the worst rock in the world.  All of this courtesy of people believing their own PR, like eating your own poop.

If anybody wants to up the lifetime back to 70 years, they can read my 'water laser' article, hidden somewhere in all my muck.  I really don't recommend reading physics or geology because that puts you in the English Major doghouse.

ps. during my time at the old company, I worked with the PR department for a while, feeding them physics, so they could write better fantasy.  So, I worry about the Maserati crowd turning on me.  My disclaimer is that our reactors are 'safe as houses'.  There.

pps.  although the original D-reactor was rated at 1000, it has to be crippled so it doesn't shake itself apart.  The new refurb was a slavish copy of the old one.

A full Europe Arctic spill starts

 On the Canadian side the Arctic is still sucking in the air.

However, Greenland has a rosy -50 glow, and really, really wants the full -60 smiley face.  Canada only has a clipper.

And just above the Greenland Gap, we see the ominous arc of a full spill for Europe.

Today, I officially accept my readership at an egg-breaking even dozen.  That's the max, since I must maintain the fiction that a warmie attack would do more harm by increasing my readership.  As long as they think nobody reads me, and I stay off tikkytokky, I'm just dirt under their expensive shoes.

And speaking of dirt.

US natgas prices remain wallowing in the mud, despite the cold.  A good Texas -20 is needed to bump that up.  Coming soon.  

ps. and because I got some new people commenting, I'm feeling perky, so here comes the Texas Chainsaw Equatorial Massacre.  

And the obvious effect on Spotty, the El Nino Mirage.  The old micro-El Nino is diving south.  

I am confident that these videos are meaningless to the English Majors that control our media.

ps. a full Arctic is defined the same as a glacier.  It is an object, with mass and energy, not like the fantasy Dancing Jet Stream and Polar Vortex fairies.  When the outbreak comes, it will have airflow behind it.  The potential energy comes from gravity, like a landslide.  It has kinetic energy, and negative (potential) thermal energy from the temperature being lower than ambient.  This mixes geology and physics -- geophysics, my fav thing.

Not that cold yet

 

Almost at 60 below for Greenland.  The Arctic is still charging up.  

I'm getting out of this 'doom and gloom' talk.  We all want happy thoughts of a nice mild winter.  

Straight talk for the winter:  2016 was the combination of the peaks of two regular cycles for the Earth.  One is the decade cycle of 20 years or so.  That gives us things like the 70's freeze.  The other is the 300 year cycle that gave us the Little Ice Age, and the Roman warming period.  The fantasy talk was all about how these cycles were broken now.  This is the standard talk for all cycles.

We are now entering the opposite of 2016, both cycles are diving.  I'm not getting any joy out of reporting this, since I am in the middle of it.  For Canada, this is nothing, since -40 isn't any different from -20.  Merry Christmas!

ps.  as usual, I'm stopping all this and taking a sabbatical while the houses of nooa and nosa fall down around their ears.  I don't want to be blamed!!  If any new reader wants to send a note, it'll keep me going...  Questions are welcome.

pps.  I got one extra reader, I'll do one more post...

Excuses start for the El Nino Disaster

 Reference

The three people reading this blog know that they made a horrible, horrible mistake with the El Nino thing.  It's a mirage and not doing anything.  Our winter will be colder than ever.

Sooner or later, people may notice this.  So, the excuses have started.  A UFB is responsible - unidentified floating blob.  Tomorrow we should have more excuses.  

I'm thinking they should blame the Monster Ozone Hole, since the ozone thing was the same physics as carbon warming -- the stuff of English Majors.  Maybe an undetected orbital variation.

State of the Oceans - Nov 27, 2023 -- Everything stays the same

 

A weak return current is not carrying any heat energy.  The Argo floats dive deep, and the current is calculated from their drift, so this is a deep current, driven by ocean convection.

This 'mirage current' is going west, and is driven by the wind.  The apparent warm water is driven by the wind, and must be only a dozen feet deep.  It is also not carrying any heat energy.

The above is the actual sea surface temperature.  It shows the deep convection cells of cold water, which I call a 'chainsaw' going west.  The apparent motion of the anomaly mirage are hot 'spots' between the chainsaw chain points.

I was actually worried that the Gulf Stream was slipping in some heat energy into the Iceland gap, but a careful look above shows the current is branching off the very-strong Greenland current and it is cold.  Last year, the Gulf Steam totally cut off this Arctic spillway.

Above, it looks like a total sock-in for the ice, leaving an unimpeded flow channel for the Arctic spill, and the formal announcement of the Little Ice Age - II.  

As predicted, I'm thinking of two full spill channels, maybe three if you count both sides of Greenland.  The other is Canada.  The Bering Str and Siberia should be dead this year.

As soon as Greenland gives the green light of 60 below, let the fun begin!

ps.  this isn't even near to a full spill

Clipper hits Toronto

 This one emerged from the mess.  It's a clipper, defined by MIMIC, but not the wind stream.

The bigger news is that the Arctic is hitting 50 below, and ready to blow.  The signal to start the spills is a white spot on Greenland, indicating 60 below.

ps.

Linux -- The Modern World

 Nothing much had changed in the last 10 years or so, and now it is an explosion.

Just a few months ago, my large server threw a disk drive, and I got a magnetic one (big mistake).  Then my huge motherboard started blinking out.  The mini PC at the top is a few months old, and the black one top right is a new one, with twice the power and a 1tb internal drive.  I'm using that as my main Linux server now, the other one is for the video cameras.  An old hdd is bottom left.  The little black box is a 2tb ssd drive that I got a few weeks ago, and the tiny black square is a new one for Black Friday that is the same price, 4tb and twice as fast.  

At the top is the Coral AI machine which is faster than the computers in AI recognition tasks.  My old computer is the size of an old hatbox and is going to recycle soon.  

The new super-small computer is a Ryzen 7, but doesn't have an ethernet, just wifi.  I got a little ethernet adaptor with 3 extra usb slots.  

Now is the time to ditch the mag hdd's of your life.  Like my old one, they will give out on you.  The ssd's should last my remaining life, but I'll probably replace them for smaller and faster.  Neat.

My ethernet cable system is still 50% faster than a new nest wifi, so I like to use it, and I have a big switch.  That should last a while.

Messy weather, Arctic weak

 No big warm plumes coming up from the equator.  The Arctic is still recharging, and is quite warm.

I can't see anything significant, but the Arctic will do something soon.

Everything is quite tropical, but it is only November.  

Messy weather happens when the cold meets the warm.  This is happening right now over Toronto.  Rain and snow coming.

If we actually had an El Nino, then the only way it would affect our weather would be with warm plumes coming up.  Not happening.

I'm glad people are having happy dreams.  Be careful sunning yourself at 50 below, there could be more UV, as the Arctic hole becomes bigger than ever.

ps.  this is a fun video to watch every day.  

The ice is filling in very fast.  This was the usual extent during our warm cycle.  Now it is filling in.  Those two Arctic islands with the funny names have been ice-free for a while now.  When they are all blocked in, that was a signal for the start of the Little Ice Age in the 1600's.  As well as Holland inventing ice skates, and the Great Freezing of the Thames.

pps. the Arctic is acting like a big puffy engine, due to no heat energy.  It gets really cold, the air gets dense, and it floods over everything.  Then it runs out of air (low pressure).  Right now, it is sucking in the surrounding ambient air, which isn't very warm, and starts the cycle again.  In the summer, we are going to be horribly hot for 2 months.  If people could research the Little Ice Age, and the Medieval Warming Period, they would find out our future weather.  But, no money goes to that.

Arctic recharging

 Everything is back to a confused mess.

Can't figure anything out.  Maybe we need that 'super intelligence' AI they are working on.  Of course, they'll have to get past that 'garbage in garbage out' problem of groupthink.  (not a chance!).

This is fascinating.  The hot air of Africa moving over the Atlantic hits South America and is scooped by the Andes Mountains, down to Rio.  I never saw that before.  That's heat that doesn't come to us in North America.  Such a perfect round scoop.  In NA, there is no heat coming up from around the world, so the Arctic should hit -60 soon.

ps.  a cute video that I haven't done before of Arctic sea ice.  I expect the full Iceland bay to be filled this year.

ps a new Costco has opened up right near us.  We go too often now.  Went today with margarine a desperate need.  Bought tons of stuff, but forgot the marg.  :(

UK gets hit with a taste to come, NA gets last Pacific action

 

UK and Europe are getting hit with the full Monty of an Arctic spill.  However, the Arctic is not at 60 below yet.

In the video, you'll notice a neat Double Wham Bang in the Pacific.  That's a standard cyclone combined with a clockwise gyre, pouring air over the mountains.  That's mixing a bit of warmth to blunt the North American spill.

The Arctic is just starting to show -50 and Greenland is still a tropical paradise of -30.  I'm not showing Spotty, because it is too sad.  He's getting chewed up the equatorial Chainsaw Massacre.  

We need the full Arctic spill of -60 on UK to freeze the Thames, coming to a theatre near you.

ps.  and the world surface temp is finally hitting the crowd, indicating the end of the micro El Nino influence.

Linux - make kernel from scratch

 I was hoping to avoid all this, but they really botched up the kernel recently.  I have to go for the latest, because of my amd setup.

Reference

That's a good reference, the main line being what you need to install.

sudo apt-get install git fakeroot build-essential ncurses-dev xz-utils libssl-dev bc flex libelf-dev bison

But they forget 'pahole', whatever that is.  You get mostly through the compile, and then this shows up.  You have to redo it.  blah.  I'm doing that now.

ps.  BIG THING!  New computers must have 'Secure Boot' disabled in the bios, for the new kernel.

Arctic spills thread the needles of cyclonic action

 

Not much new going on.  The Arctic spills are starting up, but lots of cyclones to stop them.  Europe is being hit by a direct stream from Greenland.  

Toronto is just on the verge of getting hit by the Arctic blob.  US Thanksgiving travel is saved, but the return home will be a movie.

Toronto will be protected by the Great Lakes.  Might be some snow, and we have to get a lot of snow before the Great Lakes allow us to hit -30.  

ps.  and Spotty has moved down right to the equator, where he will be chewed up by the cold shark teeth.

This above is Spotty, descending to be US Thanksgiving dinner.

And below is the cold equator, wit the shark teeth moving down the road.  Those are actually high-energy swirls of cold.  With these, you can see that the current is being driven by massive ocean convection, and not the myth of the wind driving this.  There is a more than 1000 to one ratio of energy between water and air.

However, we must continue to ditch the physics for the popular opinion.

ps.  the big money is in natgas futures.  They run on fantasy.  If Spotty dies, will the price go up?  Will anybody notice?

State of the Oceans -- Pacific reverse current decays in tune with Spotty

 

The return current is still staying north of the equator, but must decay as things get colder. We'll expect the 'off axis' action to move to the south.  The current is really ratty to the east.  

You can see that a 'full return' is still giving us heat to the west.  The concept of El Nino is way more complex than the media tells us.

Planes, trains and automobiles

 

This cold air glacier is coming down right on US Thanksgiving.  I think it might be a bit late to give us a good movie.  I hope everybody is tucked into a good dinner before it hits.  

Linux - All amd's go to heaven

 We've just come off a horrendous time for amd's with the built-in gpu.  i'm glad I wasn't the only one, It is most important to stay in the main bulge of users with your equipment.  For a while, I thought the old machine was out of it, and I got some new stuff.

Starting with kernel 6 something, my system went haywire.  Long story short, kernel 6.7 has finally settled it.  I have abandoned the big monster with magnetic drives, and gone for a super-little box with ssd drives.  it's just as fast, with a Ryzen 7, lots of memory, and a 1tb internal ssd drive, with an external usb 2tb ssd drive.  Such are the joys of Ammie Black Friday.

I'm just keeping the big guy around for the drives.  I had an idiotic disaster that wiped both drives, and that started me to lose faith in the hardware.  First was not looking at the defaults for gparted, and the second was a horrible superblock problem.

 

Ozone chickens come home to roost

 Reference

My Christmas gifts are coming in, as physics hits the popular press.  These researchers are still obligated to say 'We don't have a clue what is causing this.', and the climate scienteests trash the 'short term' and go for the 'long term', which by definition, never changes.  The famous 'hockey stick' would have been trashed by this illogical thinking.

“This means that the hole has not only remained large in area, but it has also become deeper [i.e. has less ozone] throughout most of Antarctic spring,” said Hannah Kessenich, a PhD Student at the University of Otago and lead author of the study.

That means the 'no ozone volume' chart, if it existed, would be going through the roof.

They can't publish the physics, but the ozone hole was always a stratosphere temperature thing.  If you look deeply into the literature, you will find nosa's own lab reporting that the famous phoney reaction could never take place in a near-vacuum, at -90.  No chemical reactions take place.  So, no ozone formation in the first place.

The famous ozone canard set the stage for 'greenhouse gases' which also cannot exist in a wildly convective atmosphere.

This world of fantasy is slowly crumbling.

In fact, I am now hoping New Zealand leads the physics charge.

Full Arctic air glacier develops

 

You can see that perfect arc slowly descending.  

At this time of year, it's only -40, but Greenland is getting that rosy glow of -60.  At those temperatures, you don't care about F or C.

Spotty is decaying from the rear, and we always thought the rot starts at the head.  

You can see the air coming down, and that huge warm plume hitting the UK.  I am predicting the end of the big Atlantic plumes, and we'll soon get on to the business of 'Freezing the Thames'.

I am becoming much nicer, less snarky.  That's because I have seasonal depression, and I thought a 'wee dram' of Scotch wouldn't affect me.  That was wrong.  As you cut down the drinking, you become way more sensitive to a mere drop of ethanol.  So, it's 'Not a Drop', until the sun comes back.

That means no more making fun of all those people who are now in a bit of a pickle.

ps. and in other news, I am enjoying my morning cup of coffee.

Arctic Spill Time

 This isn't your usual Arctic spill.  As you see here, the Arctic is a balmy -30C

It's just that it is getting hit by two warm plumes, and is squeezed like an orange.

Producing a strong spill through Canada and Siberia.

The UK is saved by a warm plume up the Atlantic, and BC has a plume from the micro El Nino.  

They are enjoying monster storms. Our Canadian spill will cause cold weather in Toronto, and might even lift the natgas prices in the US.  The traders are still spinning dreams about warmth.

That warm plume hitting the UK was caused by a very rare reversal from the Pacific.  It should be the last one, but everything is chaotic right now.  I won't talk about poor Spotty.

ps.  and the weather people are reading my blog, leaning towards physics -- neat.

They have never used the word "plume".  Next, they'll be hitting on the phoney El Nino...

pps.  the main El Nino cheerleader, is now casting doubts, but using old pictures.

Watching the phoney El Nino story crumble, is a barrel of laughs.  They are saying it's not doing anything, but will, any time soon.  My feeling is that they will soon 'ghost' it.

more:  I can't believe the weather people are abandoning Polar Vortex Vacuum Fairies, and the Dancing Jet Stream....

The mystery of Spotty's murdered body

 Spotty is my name for the El Nino mirage.  The videos are great to learn the habits of the wild mirage.

Spotty uses his appendage to shoot warm blobs of water to the West.  That is against the main current, determined by rising and sinking Argo floats.  In order for Spotty to shoot against the current, it must be very shallow water, only a few inches and driven by the wind.  The main current is driven by the ocean heat convection.  It has about a thousand times more energy.

So, Spotty was happy blowing bubbles when his body disappeared right at the end of the video.  It exploded and the guts are going all over the UK.

He is just left with his bubble gun.

If we look at the actual ocean temperatures, we see no sign of Spotty.  Thus, Spotty is an El Nino mirage that doesn't relate to the main energy.  Of course, he exists in a warmie sense, and El Nino will warm up our winter any day now.

ps.  what's really funny is the nooa promise that El Nino will come and save Christmas with warmth.

One hand taketh ---

 

I am of the opinion that we have lots of affordable housing, if the feds would just let it go.  This is over-steering at its worst.  

Every luxury condo downtown in Toronto is empty.  All office buildings are empty.  Endless construction of housing and condos is going on.  All supported by the banks.  

The banks are allowing loans to zoom to infinity and beyond.  Japan had this quite a few years ago, and the after-effects lingered for decades.  We are going down this hell-hole.

Tons of fed money feeds inflation, and the poor Central Bank has to raise interest rates.  And the feds will pour in more money, as the people whine.  As the song says:  "Let it go.".  The banks have to finish the fantasy, and close the mortgages.  The cbc will print the whining.  Instead of focusing on the speculators that caused all this, they find the one-in-a-million stupid person.

Business cycles exist for a reason.  When there is a bubble, like bittycoin, everybody piles in.  Then physics hits.  Same with all group-think.  Such is life.  Only we pensioners will dance in the old folks home, waiting for oblivion.  :)

Standard clipper should see snow for Toronto area

 

This is the global scene.  The UK is going to get splattered with the guts of Spotty.  The African hot air is getting shattered on the coast of South America.  I hope Taylor likes the heat.

We are getting the cold side of a standard clipper.  When the cold is shoved east, we'll get snow from the warm side of the clipper. A clipper forms when warm air from the Pacific crosses up at the Yukon, and scoops down cold air.  We've always gotten these in the winter, and has nothing to do with Arctic spills.

Greenland is almost there.  When the core turns white (60 below) the spills should start again.

Musk Makes More Mash

 

Maybe the concrete is in pristine condition.  Maybe he didn't mash it all up.  I suppose they'll get it right some day, but there are limits on how big a rocket can get.  I'm thinking that a Mars spaceship will have to be assembled in orbit, using the Heavy.

In any case, I hope all the boats stayed away, and they pick up all the pieces to see what happened.

The cold is a clipper

 

The Arctic flow is straightening out, but I can't call it an Arctic spill.

You can see that it is sufficient to keep out the warm air.

The Indian Ocean continues to pump heat over Africa, but the band has moved down, so it is easier, over a narrow part.  That heat plume going up the Atlantic to the UK is actually gushing from Spotty's body.

Yes, Spotty has lost its body.  It is merely an appendage now.  However, we can never call it dead.

Clipper may grow to an Arctic spill

 

You can see that the cold air of the clipper is quite powerful, once again forming a giant arc of warm air being cleared out.  

We are still in a big cyclone mess.

On the world front, the Atlantic band has moved south, which means it can't cross Central America.  Africa is still injecting warm air, but the big surprise is that the Pacific is injecting warm air into the Gulf of Mexico.

This is a very chaotic thing, but poor Spotty looks quite almost dead.

Finally, the Arctic hasn't fully filled up yet.  The spills don't start until the fat lady sings, or Greenland goes to 60 below.

ps. I really like these headlines -- "Although we are into a heavy winter, El Nino will come any day now."