Cold blob hangs up at the Great Lakes again

 

I was expecting to find a smooth front this morning, halfway to Texas.  Instead, it is a jagged little pill.  Part of it can still go down the mid-west, but it won't be as fast as I thought.  The physics on this, though, is amazing.

At least the Arctic ice volume has crossed another line.

ps. it's quite amazing, when combined with the tropical plumes.  Very weird.

pps.  this is quite a study in the interior cohesiveness of the blob.  The great lakes are acting as an anvil stopping it.  Blob1 was 10 times smaller and fit between the lakes and the rockies.  Can it bloop down and still hit Texas?  That would mean that the blob splits down the middle.

Full Blob Attack!

 

This one is twice as big as the texasfreezer.  It is about to hit Lake Superior, and the Great Lakes have turned back two blob attacks so far.  There's nothing Texas can do, except drain the water pipes.  And this is never forecast until the town is right into it.  

There's a good-sized plume trying to attack it, but it looks like it is being deflected.  

The blob is like a landslide starting.  Very slow a the top, but quickly picks up steam.  Should hit Texas in a day or two.  If it breaks through the Great Lakes, then the other southern states will freeze.

ps.  yeah for slime mold!

Reference

Very simple physical properties can make it self-propelled just like Blob Bob.  :)

pps -- New Insight!  The edge of the blob is hardened by the rotating jet stream.  Neat.

Follow the blob in real time

 Third time's the charm.  I usually have to wait until the morning to get a full minimum temperature black blob picture, but the tropical plumes also give the picture.

You can see the clear area descending.  The tropical plumes bend around it.  The towns fall by the wayside, as red warnings go up.

Just below that, it's all 'la la la'.  I know I've been wrong more than once, but THIS IS IT!  It's a real wolf!  (maybe).  Can the winds stop it?  

Sea level shoots back up again

 I have lost my confidence, but the sea level last month has gone back up again.

The upper is a magnification since 2016.  The sea level is very bouncy, but there is quite difference from the 2016 warm cycle.  This bounce may mean that global temperatures come back a bit.  

Blob changes direction again

 

Yeah, I won't be attacked for knowing too much.  All my kids are laughing at me -- "Where's the cold, dad?'  Blah.  Once again, the blob has been sheared off by tropical plume winds. 

I took a guess as to the physics, and it looks like it's not the tank I thought it was.  It's brooding up there, and we all want to know if it is going to take another stab at Texas.  I also think the Great Lakes had more heat energy than I thought.

ps.  we start to get a better idea of the actual physics parameters.  It actually is a 'slime mold' that eats heat energy.  It would have properties of cohesion, adhesion, stiffness, etc.  Two times it has attempted to go down the Great Lakes and has failed.  The last time it had to send a narrow tongue down alongside Lake Superior and that was too weak.  Now, it is in a tight formation and that can deflect plume winds.  Will it advance again?  Most likely, and it will go to Texas.  At least, nothing will freeze in the garage.

Our 'bellweather' site is Fort Mac

Yellowknife is all -40 across the board.  Tomorrow, it will be the same here, if it starts to move.

pps.  the tropical plumes are funneling down a Pacific heat zone and hitting us.  Any blob must be robust to survive.

Outer blob slips by Great Lakes

 

Boy, this is slow, but it's still coming.  Not on any forecast yet.  The outer blob should hit us tomorrow.  The main black blob is hitting Churchill.  

ps.  the main hypothesis is that the blob is self-propelled and can't be stopped, like an air glacier.  If it stops, then pooey.  :)

pps.  the forecast for Timmins is still tropical

I assume they are treating this as a stationary high pressure zone.

more: it's killing me it's so slow, but the mechanism implies an exponential increase in velocity as it absorbs more heat energy.  I didn't track the velocity of the last one, but it hit Texas fast.

lala - Churchill is now sucked into the blob.  The forecast was tropical just a while ago.  Timmins is next.

Although it says -40, it should get to -50.

Consequences of a Big Freeze

 The Great Lakes heat shield has had two big hits lately.  For these hits, you saw big impact on the polar blobs coming down.  Now, the shields are down, all heat energy is gone.  

There we have Lake Superior, very deep and huge.  During the summer, the lake warms and might get up to 10 C throughout, mainly through currents and conduction.

In the fall, it gets cold.  When the water hits 4C, it is as dense as it gets, and sinks down in huge plumes.  The warmer water goes up, and floods the atmosphere with heat energy.  During the last big blob attacks, all that warm water gave up the ghost, and now it is all at 4C.

Sad, sad, sad.  No more churning.  When our new blob hits, it can only go from 4C to freezing.  Lake Superior doesn't normally freeze over, so the heat energy released is very small.

The blob will run over them like they don't exist.  Lakes Huron and Erie will complete total freeze-over.

Now, if the weather guys had a speck of physics, they would be ringing the village bells.  This is a big deal!  In my houses, I always had pipes freeze until the famous 1997.  Then no more freezing.

And here's a funny story about Pickering Nuclear plant.  We had the big 90's freezes and that clogged up the station.  We had frazil ice, which is super-cooled drops of water within the main water.  As soon as that drop hits something, like a screen or a pump blade, it instantly explodes into ice crystals which stick hard.  That clogs things up and shuts down the plant.

Upper management was furious about that, and demanded that we engineers do something.  I wouldn't do it because it was stupid, but the boss was forced to design and install it.  It was just a boom that they had to put in and out every winter.  I think they gave up eventually.

That's because it was installed in 1997, and that was the start of the Great Warm Cycle.  It never froze again, and we kept looking at that stupid boom. 

The forecasters won't give a warning until the day before.  If you are smart you will check your piping in uninsulated areas.  I've got a case of wine in the garage.  Prepare for 30 below, and a electricity outage.  My downstairs gas fireplace is totally mechanical.  If you have exposed piping, then run a heat tracer on it.  This will be bad.  The wine bottles explode at -10C.

Air Glacier Gunnin' Right for Us

 

This is bigger than the last and is stream rolling the Great Lakes.  No indentations caused by the upper lakes, they have shot their load the last time.

We can call this 'AOC Instant Karma'.  The bidenarmy can have their group photo taken at 50 below.

ps.  this is straight out of Star Trek -- 'Alien blob approaching.  SHIELDS ARE DOWN!  Scotty, rev up the heat!  She canna take it, captain! '

pps.  this is physics in action.

New nuclear waste dump for Ottawa

 Reference

This is interesting, but I don't have any 'happy' comments about it, so I won't say anything.  

ps.  nothing to do with this horrible thing, but the house next to me has gone up for sale, due to my neighbours being too old.  Feel free to enter a bidding war and pay a million too much!

And here it comes!

 

Here comes da cold!  My physics is correct, and I was worried for a while.  Once again, this is not forecast.  Texas won't know what hit them.  Tomorrow we'll see the upper Great Lakes act as a shield and deflect the air glacier away.  

It hurts to be always right, and not have anybody believe.  But, i'm not peddling 'a solution' in my new book coming out (ha, ha).  It is best to just assume I'm wrong.

natgas has gone down based on all the predictions of warmer weather.  Go Bob the Blob!

On a more serious note, I proclaim a physics discovery.  'Self-propelled blob at 50 below'.  

ps.  speaking of physics, note the huge data error in the ice volume chart.

Unlike temperature, ice has mass.

pps.  and you can see the blob by the total clarity in the mimic map.

The pacific plumes can't touch it.  It is truly a phenomenon.  if you have questions read the backgrounder.

more:  somebody should tell Teddy that it's okay to go back to Cancun.  :)

blah - Edmonton has finally changed the forecast, but not nearly cold enough.

more blah - the 3 day edmonton forecast is going down like a rock and still not at -50.

Air Glacier On the Move

 

That's Bob the Blob transforming into an air glacier.  The Pacific tropical plume has moved out of the way. There's nothing to stop Bob's visit to Texas.

The air glacier should have another name, but I can't think of one.  Perhaps Coolin' Cruise, or Dapper Don.  Or Happy AOC.  

50 below is just touching Alberta.  Tomorrow, the Weather Network will be playing drums on frozen clothes.  This one is so big it might blow past our Great Lakes shield and give Toronto a chill.  Even nicer if it could get to Washington.

ps.  natgas starts another spike.

pps.  Dear Texas, the official advice is that such a huge cold spell will never happen again.  So, be happy, don't do any physics.  Just believe aoc, it's going to be warm.

more:  in predicting the descent, the physics question is:  Is it self-propelled like a big slime mold?  Or does it drift like a balloon in the wind?  I go for slime mold.

la la:  The official forecast does not have it coming down. Neat.

Huge drop in global temperatures - NOAA

 Okay, so I looked for more temperature charts.  

Reference

This is their chart and it is fine with 'The Narrative'.  

The narrative can put a straight line through all this, and the big drop has no effect.  I was terrified that the warmies are getting shriller and attacking other sources of temperatures.  But this is noaa!

It's fun again that I can say this is important, and the warmies can say it isn't.  But it's a huge drop.

There is no sign of heat energy coming from the Pacific, so I'll say we'll have another big drop next month.  And it will mean nothing to 'The Narrative'.  

ps.  if this is a world drop, I can imagine the Northern Hemisphere drop.

Cold Blob2 may be starting

 Bob the Blob relocated, maybe to the point where we can't call him Bob anymore.

He's trying to sag, but there is a huge tropical plume eating at him

If he is really going, then by tomorrow we'll have a bigger sag, and the tropical plume will be deflected by 'Blob Power'.  There's no plume after this one.  Blob1 had this same pattern.

The sequence will be that Alberta enjoys 50 below, then down to Texas.  

ps.  the narrative, without physics, is that the jet stream is very strong right now and holding Bob back.

No more against 'The Narrative'

 I have found, to my great sadness, that the 'narrative' is being pushed harder.  The narrative is 'climate change' and all its great changes.  It started with simply not funding anything that ran counter to it, and has come to a very hard push to get rid of any physics that goes against it.

It is obvious to me that we are getting colder, but there is no more proof of that.  All geophysics is being wiped out.  Soon we will just have staring outside saying 'It's getting colder.'  And then huge amounts of money going into long explanations on how that doesn't go against 'climate change'.

I had hoped that by now there would be some breaks in the cloudy sky, like people doing actual physics, but that's now as scarce as hen's teeth.  We are just going to have endless stories.

I'll follow the Texas Blobs for now, but that doesn't mean much.  I'm going to stop making fun of the UK, now that Spring is coming.  We'll have a nice summer without too many cooling degree days.  July will be fun at the cottage.

Nusa and nuaa have gone beyond merely ignoring physics, they are actively squelching it.  This is not a 'conspiracy' but standard bureaucratic group think.  We have entered the 'Dark Ages' where Aristotle-like declarations and 'consensus' rule the roost.  

There are some huge Pacific tropical plumes coming in, and this is typical Spring weather.  We have one more chance for a big winter push, but it's 50/50.  Thanks.

Bob the Blob Gets Tackled

 

He gets cut off at the knees by the Pacific tropical plumes.  He looks like he'll now follow Al, the Blob1.

He wasn't down far enough to fight the warmth, and will now lick his wounds.  But my hypothesis of blob invincibility has failed.  Back to the drawing board!

Those are very strong plumes and perhaps Bob didn't stand a chance.  But if they blow by, then Bob will sneak down and hit Texas again.

Tropical plumes expected to shatter Bob the Blob

 

Now, here's the challenge between conventional weather forecasting and my hypothesis.  Our 7 day forecast can only start when plumes penetrate the continent.  Even though, it's probably more wrong than right, but who keeps track?  Once the plume hits the land, it doesn't have the chaotic influence of ocean currents and comes in on a straight line.  

Our 7 day forecast now has these plumes hitting us, and it will be warmer.  To do that, they have to destroy Bob.  My hypothesis has them bouncing off Bob, and doing nothing.  If Bob can get by the Great Lakes, then we have some kind of cold.

This is a great test of the hypothesis.  If it is shattered then I shall believe in Polar Vortex Fairies, or maybe not.  It's no big deal to lose a hypothesis, even though lots of people treat it as death.  I know what it is like to propose something threatening to another's livelihood. It's not pleasant, and I'm glad nobody reads me.

Bob the Blob can only be checked at night, when all the day heat is gone.  In fact, that may be the mechanism for movement.  The lower latitudes warm up the bottom section, which rises and becomes less dense.  The cold air moves down, and the warm air settles at night.  It's a marvelous mechanism, easily checked by balloons, financed by Alberta (ha, ha!).  

We'll see in a few days.  If Bob does come down on us, then the warmies will say they predicted this all along, in a big story, after the fact.  And everybody will suck it up.  Yeah for them!

Natural gas prices zoom better than bitpenny

 

Wow, I predicted this years ago, which was totally useless.  The price went down the toilet.  But look at it now!  I think it may have crashed in the last few minutes, since the gas can't be delivered to frozen-pipe Cruise-Country.

This is the fun shot of storage.  My general thought is if the storage goes down to the final slurp, then things get interesting.  But it turns out that Texas has no storage and all their sources are frozen.

This is a chart that warmies should pay attention to, but they don't.  Degree-days are an integration of the general 'coldness'.  They are not a 'spot temperature' that can be cherry-picked.  You would say that a winter has been colder than usual by the degree-days.  The summers can be evaluated by cooling days.

Finally, the central-trumpy US is on its knees.  If Blob2 the Bob breaks through the Great Lakes then there is a total disaster.  No gas at all.  We're okay in Toronto, just turn down the heat on the permanently empty office towers and empty condos.  :)

So, let's all hope the 'Great Lakes Heat Dam' holds.

 ps.  a large normal earthquake in Oklahoma, celebrating the natgas prices.

Bob the Blob Not Moving Yet

 But the outer zone of influence is expanding.  The Great Lakes are pushing back.

I think he's having trouble running over the Great Lakes.  Blob1 snuck around them.

And a great note of apology goes out to RSS.  Their results are delayed due to sad personal reasons, and he is quite pissed off with me to accuse him of reacting to external pressure.  They are technical purists, like myself and seem to be in the same state I was before antidepressant pills.  These days I would laugh off any implications I am working for Alberta.  I wish them well.

ps.  Blob1 is dying and being shredded by tropical plumes, like sharks attacking a whale carcass.  Blob2 is pristine.  Lots of snow for everybody.

pps.  I'm beginning to think that Bob is much bigger than Al.  If he decides to come down, he'll freeze up all the lakes.  Phew!

more:  The doomers are moving on to the next thing.

Pellyton in da house!

 

A totally frivolous post, but we got this.  It can go faster than any normal person can run.  I'll use it for pleasant strolls through the woods.  The kids will have the crazy ladies yell at them.  The main tread weighs 300 lbs.  Two very strong men came to carry it upstairs and fully install it.  I'm just thinking of old houses.

ps.  my back hurts after watching those guys.  They just started real deliveries but have had months of training.  There must come a point where things are uninstallable.  :)

pps.  this is totally affordable if you are working millenials with no expenses whatsoever.  But they don't want to pay the monthly fees, because that would be an expense.

more:  just did my first 2 minute walk today.

More Toronto transfer slab condos going up

 Reference

It's exciting that all of Toronto is on the hanging wall of the gigantic Hamilton Fault.  And I used to be fairly confident of Toronto building stock because it was all right on rock.  But everybody and their dog is using transfer slabs, and that's like building your own swamp to put your building on.

Anyway, who is going to sign up for this now?  

Air Glacier on the Move

 

It's reached Hudson's Bay.  It will continue to slide down like jelly on a plate.  Since watching a glacier move is like watching grass grow, I'll just put in these updates, and leave it there.

But, I'm happy I can now figure this all out.  

ps.  wait until the natgas people find out about Bob the Blob!

Spencer's graph of world temperatures

 I don't use this any more, since the RSS chart has more detail, but they seem to be out for the count.  Maybe that big computer hack, or nusa silencing them.  Anyway, Dr. Spencer has his sources.

He just uses a general impact of microwaves on satellites.  RSS can divide into many little cells.  Nevertheless, he shows a huge drop in January, and I'm expecting that from RSS if they can dig out of their troubles.

This graph shows the famous '2020 tied with 2016' thing which has not shown up in RSS.  The warmies made hay with that ray of sunshine, but they will ignore the drop.  RSS may take another month, and two more blob attacks before they publish, but I'm glad I could find a graph.

ps.  I have found out that RSS was delayed by a health situation.  They reacted badly to my frivolous suggestions.  Wow, I'm staying out of this for a while.

Tracking Cold Blob Bob

 

I've decided to name the cold blobs, since everybody does that.  The UK names its storms which are really just tropical plumes, so I can name blobs.

The first blob that is now making a permanent home in Texas shall be named Al.  This one is Bob.  They are short names because blobs have no energy.  Blobs are born because the polar vortex fairies have too much fun, and blobs are unwanted, so they are sent away.

If you want physics, then blobs are born when all heat energy goes up to outer space.  At 50 below, Bob starts to form as a distinct entity.  The air at 50 below is extremely dense for air, and is what I've been calling an ice lock.  Bob becomes an 'air glacier' which drifts down south, looking for heat energy to consume.  Bob is more to the east than Al, and will become 'The Blob That Ate New York'.

The physical properties of an air glacier are amazing.  Our atmosphere has two key (magic) temperatures: 30C for the tropics when the air becomes so convective it forms a tropical plume, and 50 below where the air becomes the densest beast on earth.  The air glacier moves simply because the air pressure at the front is less than at the back.  No tropical plume can break up the blob.

Texas and southern states don't dry their natgas as much as we Canadians do, so the ice crystals gum up everything.  We are used to 50 below from the 70's and that experience has not been totally wiped away by the warm cycle.  I can't wait until 'Bob Goes to Washington'.  

ps.  I'm having fun with the concept of an air glacier.  Much like ocean temperatures don't go much above 30C, we now have a reason why the temperatures don't go much below -50C.  In both cases, the air starts to move.  Bob the Blob starts at -50, and then moves to warmer climes.  Neat.

pps.  Super Climate Gal is making fun of Texas.  Wait until Bob hits her.

Cold blob coming at us again

 The tropical plumes are hitting the continent but getting nowhere.  We are getting ready for another Texas-freezing cold blob.  Our little warm section of Canada is now at 50 below.

The 'warmer than normal' section at the North Pole is gone.  In reality, it was 30 instead of 50 below just like Greenland right  now.  

That section has now hitting the comforting 50 below.  That's how the first blob started, but more over to the west.  This is just another party for the 'polar vortex fairies'.  They have fun when the 'jet stream dam' is busted open.  nusa can't hide the world temperatures forever, they have to come out.

As we know, all this unexpected stuff can be explained away by adding new stuff to the climate change story.  It's not like there's any weight to having predicted all this with basic physics.  The second blob will have some good stories.  Can't wait.

ps. looking at this chart, I can say the warm cycle started in 1998 precisely.  

Because of the noise, it doesn't yet show the end which is 2017.  And this blob will proceed as a 'Blob Glacier' and will hit us in a week.  This time, the upper great lakes won't act as a shield.  Toronto will hit 30 below and Huntsville -40.  

pps.

Guardian Heat