El Nino train hasn't left the station

 In order for the El Nino to affect the rest of the world, we need measurable heat energy to roll over us.  

We just have lazy heat blobs 

They are continuing to enter the Nino zone.  The weather people have two problems.  First, the poop skid mark isn't leaving.

It just sits there.  It is an AI error which nobody wants to correct.  Caused by subtracting too much from the actual temperatures.  Nothing can budge it.

The other is that 'averaged temperature' does not equal heat energy.  The Nino zone keeps going up because that dang blob is constantly rotating.  I keep wait for the temperature to go down, and it never does.

All other charts are going down, just these two things keep the hopes alive.  

Nor-Easter hits land

I've been waiting for the exact instant.  

These things get great disrespect from the weather people.  They should be named and rated.  It's just because they are a sign that winter is coming early, and nobody likes that.

Nor-Easter to bring Toronto unexpected rain

 

It's a hit on the coast, while maintaining a perfect form.  Since I have never followed such a storm, it is amazing to me.

Meanwhile, Old Man Winter is trying to sneak in.

ps no video today.  Googs is having a day.

Sorry, it was my system.

ps and its finally in the news

ps I'm guessing the concept of an early nor-easter is quite upsetting to the climate marxists.  One article was yelling that it doesn't mean anything.

A perfect storm

 

Not in the news at all.  Everybody thinks this is nothing.  We'll see.

Nor-Easter on final approach

 Note that there is no rating on this.  I would call it equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane.  All the coast should be evacuated, yet everything is 'ho hum'.  If there are high deaths, then someone might mention physics.

Cottage Report - Sept 25, 2026 - A cold Fall

 This continues the very dry weather that is warm in the day, and very cold at night.  Another big cold blob is coming down so it will soon freeze.

No fall colours yet.  You can see the water is way down.  

ps ozone hole is huge.  Like I said, totally due to temperature.  What can we ban next?

Arctic ice extent hooking in faster

 

There are two charts that I'm looking at.  One is the Nino zone falling like a rock, and the other is a change of curvature for the Arctic ice extent.  This curve is mainly dependent on what is happening in the upper Greenland Gap.

For the entire duration of the past warm cycle, we have had the Gulf Stream warming up this basin.  Now that it has collapsed, the heat energy is gone.  This map is an overlay of current with sea temperature.  I expect the whole thing filled with ice this winter or next.  

The climate marxists are holding the Polar Vortex in the wings.  They have this wonderful dream of a giant swirl in the near-vacuum of the stratosphere, putting up a big fence for the Arctic Cold Cows.  Since the whole thing does not exist and cannot be measured, if it becomes super cold, they imagine that the fence becomes broken.  Of course, this lets out all the cold cows.

I love this fantasy, and it is one of many holding up the weather people, so they get their pay checks.  

The ice extent curve is now setting a new path of extreme cold for everybody.  

Nor-easter now equivalent to a large hurricane

 A nor-easter is a vortex caused by Arctic air impacting stationary tropical air.  They don't have a category scale for it, since they don't do physics.  The three of us in the world can compare easily by using an energy calculation  This sucker is now all kinetic energy.

This shows the motion of the whole system, towards the coast.

This gives us the internal motion.  Since I have never seen a nor-easter this powerful, and this early in the season, I don't know what the impact will be.  I have to assume they haven't put the boats up yet.

Our world chart continues to dive.  All those little bumps at the beginning of the 2026 curve, were the heat blobs passing through.  No effect at all, right now, of a heat blob.

ps and the true reason for clange doomerism comes out

ps and again the problem of not having a scale for a nor-easter, or any storm.

These people are staying in their stick house.

Nor-Easter now rapidly approaching the coast

 The Arctic winds are collapsing, and the nor-easter is coming in like a slingshot round.

It is difficult to tell as it starts its rocket engines, but we will be able to tell in the morning.  This will not be the nice linear speed of hurricanes.  Looks like from NYC to Nova Scotia.  Perhaps you should buy useless plywood to feel better.  Take the valuables off the boat.

I'm going to 80% now.  That leaves the wiggle-room that nothing will happen.  Since nobody reads me, I feel happy that I am not creating an unnecessary panic.  

ps the news doesn't think this is much.

Baby reactors on Lake Ontariam officially a total loss

 

I said these things had no physics, and now, they are garbage.

Perhaps the company will say "We'll keep them as museum pieces.  All the tourists that can't visit Chernobyl will come here!"

A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

This adds to many failures that have no physics, and led me to the funny farm.  We have the extensive investigation of nuclear waste disposal in the worst rock in the world, up at Bruce.  This will be followed up by Bruce C on that same rock, but that's another company, wasting pension funds.

Then we had a couple of billion on the Niagara Tunnel to Nowhere.  A fine tunnel, built by ignoring all geotechnical research, with no place to put the water.  That was fun.

The press can't seize this because they don't know physics from a hole in the head.

Toto toilet - buy of the century

 

https://www.aquarina.ca/

There is nothing longer than my search for a new upstairs toilet.  This is an epic, suitable only for those that read.  The renovation upstairs has bothered me for 20 years.  For the toilet drain, they put in some tight turns, to be able to fit.  This resulted in clogging down the line, and endless plunging.  I became so paranoid, that I only did my #2 downstairs.

Now, this miracle became available.  I was so desperate, that I was looking at the fancy car-wash toilets with jet pump flushing.  Not only are they thousands of dollars, but moving the water fixture, and installing electricity in a tiled bathroom was beyond my pay grade.  There are stories of people paying thousands to have them installed.

I've read extensively about this toilet, and it is at the price of worse toilets on Costco.  I ordered it on Costco.ca.  Guess what!  Two toilet bowls smashed!  Turns out the supplier thought he could pack the bowls to withstand UPS gorillas.  Nope!  I read about this and they said go to a local supplier, this is more than a hundred dollars cheaper than Costco.  Standard 12 inch offset.  

Neat.  the local guy just has these toilets in light cardboard.  10 seconds with UPS!   But they have a toilet specialist delivering.  The truck was full of toilets.  Said if he did break one, all heck would break loose.  You need to buy a dolly that can go up stairs, the bowl is 70 pounds!

So, it works!  Has two flushes, and the big one is nuclear powered.  Tears things up and zooms past the bends in the pipes.  You need this!  I gave it my worst test, and now, I am a happy pooper.

Anyway, with diesel fuel, shipping from Mexico and stuff, expect this to double in price soon.

ps this is my UPS bird poop that got me so upset.

Just cry with me.

Nor-Easter appears stuck

 This is an interesting story of what happens when you ignore physics mechanics.  A hurricane is a moving heat engine that follows the hot water.  It eats the heat energy and tends to move at a steady pace, in a straight line.  That's how they 'predict' them.

This nor-easter is boundary effect of cold and hot air, just like the Jet Stream.  It's movements are dictated by the relative strength of the two big players.  

Here, the Arctic air appears very strong and will win this arm-wrestling match.

However, here, the flow is getting cut off.  If it weakens, then the storm heads straight to the East Coast at an incredible speed.  

The interesting part about the east coast is that all the coast forms are caused by giant 100 year storms.  You have the big beaches without trees, scoured rock, and offshore sand bars.  This could be such a storm.

ps my continual search for any sign of heat energy from the Nino zone continues to be disappointing.

ps I give a 50% chance it will come in like a cannon-shot.  No time for useless plywood.

Tracking the Nor-Easter

 This is pure mechanics.  Fun stuff.

The planar wind shear has created a vortex.  Note that it is now the same size as the phoney hurricane they were dooming about.  Although the winds are high, they are nothing to write home about.  That vortex will be the killer.

Right now, the Arctic air looks so powerful that everybody will just freeze on the beach.  The vortex could stay out to sea until it dies of old age.  We will be able to chalk this up to 'Good News From Physics'.  or not.

So far, absolutely no heat energy blasting out from Mr. Super.  We still wait.

ps just a little hook of the warm blob left in the Nino zone.  Next week, a big fall.

You can see the nice hook, but the 3d picture may change

Basic Physics - The Anatomy of a Nor-Easter

 

Nothing more feared than this, mainly because it is more common than a big hurricane.  This is all due to climate change, blah, blah, but that has no specific mechanism.  If you want more fun, go to physics.

The energy of a storm is due to temperature difference.  Climate change is supposed to be defined as a broad warming all over, if it is ever defined.  Does not increase storms.

Here it shows we are going to have a big difference, especially when that weather, which is freezing Toronto, moves down.  We have pure Arctic air up against pure tropical air.

We can see the very intense collision front.  The NE air is coming down very hard.  The tropical air just hangs around.  The name is due to the cold air, but it would be impossible without clange.  

The classic thing is to bring in the fishing boats.  This doesn't do much to sheltered harbours, I think.

Big Insider nat-gas play possible on prediction markets

 If I ever bet anything in my entire life, I would hit this.

A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is the market's expectation that a “Super El Niño” will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing heating demand for nat-gas. 

Natgas is in the dumps because of the Godzilla El Nino.  That does not exist, in the physics, heat energy sense.  It exists in the hearts and minds of climate marxists.  They are expecting a mechanism of warmth when the Arctic ice is closing in.

There are no Pacific heat energy plumes crossing North America.  All Atlantic plumes are being generated just from the Gulf heat.

You can only make money on this 20% play if you have a few million in mad money for the prediction markets.  Buy me a coffee if it works.

For my real readers who can't rub two looneys together, this would all be consumed in admin fees, etc.  I qualify this to the yazoo - blah blah, if you lose money, it's on your own stupidity, blah blah.  My record for this is absolutely zero, since it all depends on timing, and betting against the stupids, who I don't understand at all.

By December, even the stupids may doubt the marxists, so the prediction is 20% by January.

The big money is Europe.  North American futures are determined by the Gulf of Maine.

The US tends to have the big spikes when Texas freezes over.  Really hard to time.

El Nino Zone Absolutely Stagnant

 

Once the warm blobs drop out, it's going to drop.  But for now, flat as a board.  With other El Ninos, it always rises.  Being flat means it is about the seasonal drop, but a zone along the equator shouldn't really drop.  If you made a complicated difference chart, then it would appear to be rising.

The point is that Godzilla rises from the ocean.  It is not a basking shark.  There are no other temperature charts that are rising.  This monster is a fake.

Pickering B - Units 5 to 8 start the journey

 

You can search this article, it is quite detailed.  In my memoirs, which don't exist, I go through all my work for this station.  It is neat that they are putting in a deep-water intake, because the silt was my main problem in my Toronto Earthquake Scenario.  Just so you don't worry, that's at the one in 10,000 probability, which isn't even on their radar.

We had been looking at this forever.  The main problem was 'capping off the egg'.  The reactors and all the steam generators are in concrete containment silos that have all the inside room of 'Das Boot'.  So, you have to take the cap off the egg.  We gave up on it because you could never reseal the darn thing, but now they can.

When I first started working at the old company, they were building PickB.  I always talked to everybody, since I was such a fresh newbie.  The Picks are on the worst soil in the world.  Loose glacial crap with sand lenses, and everything but the kitchen soup.  They were thumping in huge piles.  I saw the pictures.  They would hit down one pile and another one would pop up, so they whapped them all again and again.

This is all good for earthquakes, except for one thing.  They were lower than Lake Ontariam.  So, they had to pump like the dickens.

Both plants were then poured on steel frames over the dirt.  Wonderful, but then I worked on Unit 7 towards the end, before they killed me 'by depression'.  The giant electrical transformers were tilting.  They obviously addressed this in the new work.

They drilled underneath, and found there was no dirt.  Again, all fixed up in the plans.  Only much later, as I was publishing the earthquake scenario did I realize what was happening.  My 3 readers know about this, so that's all I'm saying.

I give this almost no chance of making the big money that we need for the country.  Still, it is a good 'union 10%' thing that makes jobs at 10 time their worth.  Fine Canadianism.

Waiting for Super El Nino

 By now, you may suspect that the Super El Nino train is late to the station.  The forecast is very cold for Apsley, Ontario.

We are planning to close the cottage a week early.

Today, all the 'doom scrolling' media has given up on the endless 'El Nino will kill you' stuff.  

The most authoritative world temperature chart is diving.  The media is always looking for more obscure charts.  Remember that the concept of 'baking to death' was a broad brush.

No Pacific plumes are crossing North America.  For the whole scary thing, they just focus on temperature, when you need to focus on heat energy

I love this 'candy swirl' in the Arctic.  Very pretty, but it is a sign of no heat energy.

Start bringing out your winter clothes.  I'm wearing the lined pants.

There is no 'come down' on this for the weather people.  Just like last winter, they will just fade away, and come out for the stagnant, short summer.

Trumpfull Arch to be armed to the teeth

 

The wings are radars for aiming the boob-guns.  The head pops off to launch missiles.  

Too many males

 In the past, the biggest threat to society was prosperity and too many aimless males running around.  I am surprised this is going on in high school.  We'll soon have public school home-comings.

In all previous times, the solution was to go to war.  Give them something to do and cut down the numbers.  All the old guys, in charge, loved this.

These police pre-answered the obvious negative comment:  'Don't you have anything better to do?'  Neat.

When we visited Ethiopia a few years ago, there were too many aimless males, drunk on the local weed.  We needed guards.  I thought, oh god, something is going to happen, and it did.  

Since we are too civilized to kill off the males, we must live with increased drunken violence.  Sucks for women.  There are talks everywhere of bring back the draft, but that doesn't work.  You need to kill them off.

ps since we are Canada and we don't kill off males, we need something else.  We had the housing boom and all the louts up the street were into construction.  But the price of condos has gone down to 2 bucks, and all the towers still going up are zombies.  We need something new.  I'm hoping 'Greenhouses for Everything' takes off.

ps obviously Southern Alberta has too many louts.

The Swirl of Cold

 I was not going to write unless something was happening, and it is.  The Arctic Basin Vortex has lifted its skirts to show the mechanism.

Only to me, is this a slice of heaven.  I am still recovering from my frozenness at the cottage.  You can see the swirl that dives under, for the centre.  In full 3d these things are complex, but we'll never know about them.  Anyway, this is the defining weather-maker for the rest of our winter.

I include a video of the hot blobs fooling the rest of the world, aside from the coffee stain on the map.  They are full 3d and being rotated by the currents.  These huge blobs 'defy physics' by being warmer and floating like a balloon at neutral density.  Amazing physics, never to be known.

The world air temperature is sinking and crossing lines.  This used to be the darling of the climate marxists, but went out of favour, by going down.  They'll switch to any chart to show their point.  However, soon, all charts will abandon them, and that makes no difference.

Toronto will get snow in October.  We will continue to get assailed with media tales of warmth, while freezing.  Have a nice day.

ps Super El Nino stories are trending down today.  Must be the weekend.

ps today, the Toronto forecast is dropping by the minute.  Can you imagine anyone on the media saying: "Where's that super el nino?"

Everybody going for the tax cash grab

 This was my idea, so I feel some responsibility to monitor it.  My idea was pure and it would work.  Unfortunately, all my ideas are 'politically unacceptable'.  I've really only had a very few pop through the corporate filter.

I didn't read what they came up with, because that would be sad.  However, I've read that farmers think it's for automatic milkers.  These are all projects that give 10% on capital, and would be funded if Canadian business and bank people weren't blood-sucking leeches.  But, they are nice people.

My idea is to create California conditions.  The States don't have that in the East because of avarice, and Canada has tax.  You need something for angel investors who lose 9 times out of ten, and then win big, in multiples of return.  Normal tax takes care of the losses, but you need to treat the winnings here like a lottery ticket.  This is not for cows.  The 'brights' have to be paid with stock options.

Take my 'Greenhouses for Everything'.  You have to accept we are going into an ice cycle, and then get all the approvals for 'medical coca plants'.  There is no concentration here, leave that to those rotten caffeine guys.  The gamble is to find a market for low-dose cocaine, like 'Cocaine Cola'.  They would fall into a lottery win.

Underground Toronto and Vancouver could host this.  Forget the 'pure wools', they throw too much garbage.  Forget the car plants - blah.  We need big winners.

More confirmation that mitochondria feed on red light

 

If you are old and read a lot, have a tiny red led flashlight in your pocket.  All our screens and ebooks are blue light, and the sunrise is red light.  Those little mitos in your eyes need to feed and there's no blood.  These scientists directly measured a 10% feed for mitos, but in your eyes it might be a lot more.

Just 1-2 minutes gets your eyes going for another few hours.  Everybody I know is afraid to do it, but they also believe in climate change.

Friggin' Freezing!

 At the cottage, huddled by the fire.  My nose hasn't warmed up yet.

I'm getting warmth from the laptop, as I read about how warm it is.  Gotta chop more wood.

ps my favourite world anal thermometer shares my pain

The standard world temp chart is also crossing lines.

Cottage Report - Sept 17, 2026

 We have a perfect stagnant air day.  Nice and warm, the water is still.  Cold air is coming in, and it might get to 3C at night, but the lake water usually keeps it up a bit.

Today's big news is that the ice extent is taking a sharp turn to the cold side.  It was following 2025, but now is leaving it.  Amazing.  Monster El Nino is having a laugh.

I'm not going to lecture anyone on what this means.  Get your snowblowers tuned up.  Our winters are going to get progressively worse, and they are already dusting off the Polar Vortex as an excuse.

Carney goes with my tax idea

 I love it.  California tax regime for wealth creation.  We can pay for social equality issues with the secondary wealth.  And we can clamp 30% more than the US, later.  No Canadian in California wants to rake in billions and become a pervert.  

Now, on to my other ideas like greenhouses for everything.  And forget Churchill Falls, we are going into an ice age.  Of course, all the Canadian monopoly criminals are going to zoom into this.  I really hope it works.

We are going to have to put Vancouver all underground, and keep the waterfront for beach volleyball, in the summer.  

We can make the next big invention of 'Poop Jets' for runners.

Toto Toilets stumble with cheap packaging

 This was a saga.  Having replaced all the insides of the upstairs toilet, I thought I still heard ghost flushing.  Oh, cracked bowl.  Then I thought I would get the cremedelacreme toilet on Costco online - The Toto Drake 2 toilet.  I didn't want the hassle of installing a monster auto toilet.  You need a lot of plumbing and electrical work.

There is was #1 toilet.  I called for them to take it back.  

#2 toilet.  Toto says they only ship in bulk, and the toilets are perfect.  The local distributor packs them.  

Anyway, I think they are garbage, and have given up on toileting for a while.  The upstairs toilet quieted down because it knew I was suffering.  Is this a comment on Canadian stupidity?  or a comment on Japanese Toyota engine engineering.  Who knows?  Buy a new toilet.

I demanded a bribe or I would write this for my 3 readers.  Nope.  

State of the Oceans - Sept 15, 2026

 I decided to do this every few weeks when something changes.  I am totally the Scientific Method, and basic physics.  By this, the oceans are the main conductors of heat energy, and the ocean currents are driven by internal convection.  This is 1000 times the energy density of air.

The weather influencers have their historic patterns, and believe the winds drive the ocean currents.  Very simple experiments could disprove this, but they hold the floor.  I have no impact on them, and I don't care.  No money is affected by my efforts.

They only use temperature and air pressure.  These are isolated aspects, and do not apply to energy, such as billiards, or basic physics.  That is good, they live in their world, and I live alone, with 3 readers.

In the past few weeks we've had lots of excitement on the physics angle.  I was freezing on the dog walk this morning.

The Atlantic has run our of heat energy!  It is a much smaller mirror of the Pacific in its mechanisms.  This is a problem for Europe and the UK.  It is ironic that they had their problems with stagnant heat waves because of no energy for ocean breezes.  That upper section of the ocean is going totally blue, and I've never seen that.  

The Arctic sea ice extent is following last year, and I predict it will exceed it, and encompass those Arctic islands.  That is the official starting flag for the Little Ice Age 2.  

The lower section of the Gulf Stream has completely collapsed on its feet, and is putting out weird bone spurs.  Poor thing.

And here is the 'Great Hot Hope' of climate marxists everywhere.  All their wet dreams are caused by lumps of hot water, travelling in a diagonal from NW to SE.  As they pass through the 'made-up' Nino zone, they cause it to flash up.  It is about to come down in a dramatic way.

We are going to have a winter worse than last year.  No moderating ocean breezes.  That summer stagnant heat wave becomes a winter stagnant -30C.  Such fun!  

ps I must make fun of the Pacific Coffee Stain.

While everything else is moving and shifting, you just can't get that stain out!

ps My position is that it is not real.  Could stay like this for another year.

ps also, we have a perfect Arctic Basin Vortex set up.  This has been a constant fixture of last winter and our miserable summer.  It has never happened before.

Really, really stopping this time

 Well, sorry, 3 amigos.  Here's what will happen.  We will go into a worse winter than last year.  Everybody will say it's climate change.

The UK will be Siberia - climate change.

There is nothing much else, so I'm leaving the blogosphere.  Even earthquakes won't bring me out.

I'm reading murderbot, and I see some resemblance.  Amazing.

I will continue with my memoirs, and create my own AI.  It will also have trouble communicating.

Never more than 3 readers in the world.

Just shot this to Gemini.  Cute how my blog never gets anywhere, not that I want it to.  It's an exercise to the non-reader on how they leave out 'convection'.  "If you ignore it, it's not there' 

physics to debunk climate change

The laws of physics cannot be used to debunk climate change; rather, foundational physics is the very framework that proves it.

While a few individual contrarian physicists have claimed that simple calculations disprove global warming, these claims rely on flawed assumptions that violate fundamental laws of thermodynamics. Here is how core physics actually validates anthropogenic climate change: 

 Quantum Mechanics and IR Absorption

Contrarians often argue that carbon dioxide (CO₂) is too scarce a trace gas—accounting for roughly 0.04% of the atmosphere—to alter global temperatures.

However, physics shows that a gas's heat-trapping ability is determined by its molecular geometry, not its atmospheric abundance. Symmetrical molecules like Nitrogen (N₂) and Oxygen (O₂) make up 99% of our atmosphere but are completely transparent to infrared (IR) radiation. In contrast, asymmetrical molecules like CO₂ possess vibrational modes that perfectly match the wavelengths of outgoing thermal radiation emitted by the Earth. Quantum mechanics dictates that CO₂ molecules absorb this energy and re-radiate it in all directions, sending a significant portion back down to the Earth's surface.

ps it's fun asking it about convection, etc.  It's like questioning trump

Avoid Underpasses

 

This is a rain-train exactly like many others.  This has a 50% of filling underpasses, but it may break up.  Weather people have it as 'showers' so they don't expect much.

ps yeah, it's going just underneath us

Warm Gulf plume smashes Arctic blob

 

Haven't seen this in a while.  The collapse of the Gulf Stream has warmed the Atlantic around the Gulf.  That was a very powerful Gulf plume that pushed the cold blob to the East.  They got the frost.

However, the plume is getting hit at the back, and it has a huge rain-train coming down on Toronto.  The weather forecast only says 'showers', but we'll see.

You can see another big blob coming.

 In Europe, no heat energy.

There's that nice Nfld frost.  

We are in for a wild time if the Gulf plumes remain strong.  The Arctic blobs remain unrelenting.

ps this is our Little Ice Age weather.  Endless collisions between blobs and plumes.  

ps the weather for Toronto during the last Major Ice Cycle was that of a cold rain forest.  We had those huge cedar forests.  You can still see the giant stumps around the cottage.  I can now see the mechanism was the collapse of the Gulf Stream forcing all Atlantic equatorial belt heat into the lower North Atlantic.  This shoves the huge plumes up north, colliding with Arctic blobs right over Toronto.  The other remnant of the last ice cycle were 'beaver marks' on old trees 10 ft up.  That means 10 ft snow for everybody!

Phoney Anxiety Alert!

 

And washing your hands.  And touching anything in the bathroom.  Will this pasta stick against the wall?  

The basic point is that if it looks clean, then it is clean enough for humans.  We have our immune system for a reason.  File this with all the other anxieties they use to make money.

First frosts a month early

 

Soon, we are going to get the story on how the jetstream is making out with the Polarvortex fairies.  All while saying it's warmer than ever.

Arc de Trumpf to be built on dead soldiers

 

I always wonder how far he will go.  Nothing is stopping him.  So, it isn't right on the remains, it will cast shade on Arlington.  The picture is missing the giant statue, Trump as a soldier.  Or raising the flag on that island, all by himself.