Everything is cold. In fantasy-land we could write "It is always coldest before the warmth.'. That's beautiful!
I don't have anything to say. I just note that for us, the Gulf heat has given up, leaving us to the mercy of the Arctic winds. In a classic short cold cycle, like the 70's, we would be going into a static balance, making everything hot. Perhaps for a major cycle, like this, we have no summer. We just don't know what happened here during the Little Ice Age.
The main epicentre is located by seismometers and is at the top of the rupture. This is called a subduction zone, but you can see a real subduction zone right beside it.
These are not what I call 'clean' subduction zones, and may only produce M9's rarely, or not at all. The M8 earthquake produces the maximum of what we can expect for an earthquake, but an M9 shakes longer. You will never get the pgv higher than this, whatever it is.
However, thousands of structures have been weakened by this earthquake, and I would call it quite likely that another one goes off on either side of the basin. It seems similar to Christchurch.
So, in a few months, all buildings that 'look alright' will be cleared. Then, bang! Another one. I give this a good likelihood, but who am I?
If you want to live in a building here, try to get pictures of it being constructed. The steel will be obvious. If you had followed my 'Handy Dandy Guide to Riding Earthquakes' you would have measured the seismic noise when built, and now check it after the earthquake. It should show no difference. If the building has softened, get out of Dodge.
Anyway, my official opinion is to believe everything they say.
ps what I really wanted to say is that in all these earthquakes, the highlands go up, and lowlands go down. The topography tells you a lot.
Instead of Chromebooks, you go one step down, and just have a built-in browser. It is keyed with encryption to a server machine that runs ChromeOS. There is no way to break this.
My one worry was 'interception' by creeps pretending to be kids. This is quite simple, since you put the whole onus of registration on the kids and the schools. We would also have a phone-like portable tablet. Most likely you would just have larger and smaller tablets.
The Kinternet Universe should not be a dull leftie paradise. This is the difficult part, since education is all lefties and they like to control everything. Educators would patrol the area, but we must allow some freedom to make mistakes and then be corrected for it. Lefties, like that federal minister, like to over-control and forget the consequences. Anyway, all the shouting would be about this world.
You could have a kid-friendly fortnight thing, with avatars. No money, no credit cards. The Scientific Method would look at the usefulness of the education, marks, etc. Self-starting is vital. No political propaganda hammering. This really is 'milk toast' like the googs gaming system, but I hope it would be fun.
The way around it, is for the cool kid, of divorced parents, to bring in a loaded iphone to school. This would be treated like a gun. You can easily tell by all the kids crowded around it. It's quite simple to make it a crime to give a loaded iphone to a kid. It's like cannabis!
The SM approach is to make a hypothesis that the kids will be better off. You need to show that with measurements. Using pure SM, you are immune to influencers who think an El Nino is on the way. I don't know if that is possible. However, it is technically possible, keeping the cost down to 2 years per kid.
The main savings will be to use the second-grade chips and processors on the racks of the data centre. The super-duper stuff goes to AI. My tiny AMD computer is sufficient. Millions of these could be in a used data centre. No new building is required. Live off the stuff the AI crowd throws away.
- finished.
ps I was thinking of the early railroads with spaghetti rail line everywhere, all different gauges. The money is in building the stations.
ps we can avoid propaganda by leaving that to the schools, and treat this as a resource centre. Out of work librarians can curate it.
Kid Internet or Kinternet could turn into an Ottawa LRT for the whole country. Boy, would Alberta be howling if we had a Universal Internet Gun Registry, making the assumption that every person using the Internet is a criminal. That would shave 5% annually off our GDP.
But, if we do it right, then it's lots of money for Canada, and Alberta is happy. Look at kids around the world, they have problems with being wealth creators. At least all our young people go to California, along with the Indians, and create trillions. All those big Internet and computer companies got to be billion-types without any regard to social costs. Does MS pay for endless exploits? Does FB pay for ripping out privacy? Will AI pay for suicides? Not in the US.
In Canada, we must find a way to make this sort of money, and be able to sleep at night. Hundreds of other countries want some money without total collapse of morals. They try to do it by hammering their kids, but that takes all the 'animal spirits' out of them, and they all become Singapore.
The first thing is to adapt the 'Scientific Method' with experiments and measurements. That's the California way. We don't need 'Influencer Science' led by lefties. A famous leftie said of the Niagara Tunnel "It's worth it at any cost." Since it was never used, you would add "And at any level of success, even it is zero" That's the Ottawa LRT.
We should stay out of the AI Data Centre game. That's like early railroad building with 10 different track widths. Let the Big Guys destroy themselves on that. We sneak under, and use rejected data centres. These old guys can't put out the heat, and hold the iron of the AI centres. Although AI doesn't mind destroying the world over time, like MS, they are stopping production of new models that instantly destroy the world. We're talking Mythos 5 here, and what will it do for us?
Kinternet is a bold idea that will put Canada into the world with existing data centres. It is so fabulous that I am pausing here, in order to glory in my idea. I know you new readers are dying to hear about it, but that's me. I live on coffees.
-- to be continued as Kinternet Part 2
I love it when a plan is impossible. They are going for age verification, as though that can't be hacked. The essence of the Internet is that it can't be censored.
I liked the concept of the Google proxy machines when they had them for games. It all died because you can't cheat, and the greedy game sellers wanted more money. The whole graphics market was driven by game advantage (cheating), until AI took everything.
I would propose that one of those data centres be turned over to proxy Internet. Then phones and laptops could only connect through these, for kids. A bit of parental responsibility is needed here, but 'universal access machines' could only be sold like booze.
Busy moms could not hand over their iphones. Any obvious leakage could be investigated. The whole thing would be ten times cheaper than sending 'truant officers' to check ages. The age thing would need 100% registration of everybody, including me. It can't be done. The proxies would have basic graphics ability, so no complex shooting games. All the privacy stealers would be shut out. Let's do it!
ps slimy bald drunk guy could push this as a data centre for Alberta.
ps left a comment on Geist. Nobody listens to him, either.
ps It's neat you apply the Scientific Method and solid measurements to this. If you don't then everything crashes by smart comments. People will find a million-to-one exception and use this to tear things down. One will be 'cost per kid', including general economic damage. Remember that the lefties think money grows on trees. If they try to do a 'Universal tracking of everybody card' we might as well just dig a hole and crawl into it. The cost per kid should be limited to about 2 years of education.
Came back from the cottage as this front was coming down. As usual, I am trying to hurry everybody up, but everybody was resistant. No physics people in the family.
We just made it, and the rain came down on the drive back. Haven't had that since the 80's and 90's. I was worried about trees falling on us.
To celebrate the birth of the child, El Ninny, we have the equatorial belt getting colder. The heat anomaly is on the upper side, because it is getting blocked from the north.
Anyway, we can never tell that the clangers aren't right in the summer. I was expecting the Arctic flow to stop for the hot part of summer, lasting a month. Who knows?
Their El Nino doesn't exist, but there are no 'milestones' to hit, and no mechanisms. So, we will have endless discussions this summer.
ps everything and its dog is now going to be blamed on Ellie
with so much proof, I totally give up on this.
Every 70 years or so we have a Definitive Learning Earthquake, and I think this is the one for this century. The first was the famous 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but all the wrong lessons were learned from this one. Then the San Fernando earthquake of the 1970's, and this one. Each had a huge effect on the earthquake world.
You can see the perfect source, and the predicted intensity.
The reported intensities match the predicted. All we need are peak ground velocities, and the scene is laid for advances. The intensities, or damage, line up with peak ground velocity, a million times better than measured acceleration. PGA has no physics for damage, so throw that out in the garbage. All the standard earthquake engineers are all PGA, so that says something.
If somebody can hack the government and get the PGV's we will have a full plate.
All of this presents a new way of saving lives with regard to earthquakes. The existing methods of having priesthoods with no concern for the people have failed. Critical thinking by the consumer will save us, along with the Scientific Method. Don't go protesting over this appalling death count at 20 cm/s. Won't do anything.
-- next I have my grandchildren over from California - lots of energy.
ps I have stopped my attack on the priesthoods. They really want what's best for you. I'm now getting direct paypal scams. Neat. Good-bye.
ps the other reason to quit is my number on the corruption index for earthquakes. I saw a picture of the India earthquake and the entire neighbourhood was flattened, except for one concrete house, untouched in the middle. That was ignorance. Then there was the Armenia earthquake where every Soviet apartment building was a pile of dust, not even pancaking. The closest to a 'high corruption' earthquake was Turkey, and that wasn't close to this, since they had some steel. You could not investigate this earthquake without pissing a lot of people off. That's why you won't see any analysis. And I'm staying away.
ps also there are something like 60,000 people red-tagged. The big problem is the same as Christchurch, in telling who can go back. Lots of perfectly good buildings will collapse in the next earthquake, and this guy looks to have at least one.
The reason I wasn't interested in this earthquake, was that it was a 'Corruption Earthquake'. That's when they make buildings like beach sand castles, and very low ground shaking comes along. The lower the ground shaking, amid collapse, the greater the corruption.
Corruption is associated with the lack of transparency, and I find the authorities there take no flak from people. I can't get any records. Even in Guatemala they take earthquakes seriously and put in a lot of steel in their buildings.
The standard approach is to enact building codes, but they are useless, if not applied. In these cases, I think consumer choice is important with transparency. Would you pay more in rent, live with less room, or move out a bit, to have less chance of being killed? How much? Once a building is up, no authority can come along and say "This is a death trap!'. They would get shot, and there is no 'concrete' proof.
Obviously, you as people, should fight for 'less chance of death'. However, this is a leftie thing, and therefore, totally useless. You have to change the fundamentals, and use the Scientific Method, and physics for that. Do not rely on influencers of any stripe.
- whoops, have to run. Don't see any more coffees tinkling the tip jar. Am I greedy?
My surge of viewers was legitimate. Seems from the map of viewers is that everyone is from an earthquake zone, and is interested in not dying.
I'm not proud, I'll be an organ monkey, and will produce with the clink of coffees in my jar.
First off, I do earthquakes with physics and the Scientific Method. I am always right in the long term, as the odds take hold. If you flip a coin and get three heads in a row, it is the Influencer Thing to say that you will continue to flip heads (legit coin). That's because they love a linear extrapolation. That is a death trap, because if we know the physics of a coin flip, we know the long odds will come true.
It's the same with earthquakes, we deal with the long odds. Your job, to live, is to reduce those long odds. The big problem is that it takes a long time for the odds to hit, and you get a lot of 'snake oil' people going the wrong way on earthquake engineering, without basic physics.
This is a classic picture. Note the destruction and the building right behind doesn't have a cracked window. Lots of death, beside - ho-hum! That is the fun of 20 cm/s. The building behind would need 80 cm/s to start tilting.
These are modern structures so what happened?
Can you count the number of steel bars in this column? Right -- Zero! In nearly all the destruction pictures, I can't find any steel.
No steel means 'Pancakes on the House!' or "The House is a Pancake!'. No chance to survive.
- to be continued after a coffee break.
In order to get the hot stagnant summer of our dreams, we need the Arctic to calm down. It is not cooperating. It is difficult for those wanting to take pictures to prove Climate Change.
Still no coffees, so that whole 'popularity' thing was FB people who get paid to make comments on FB groups that have nothing to do with them. Good to see FB is destroying itself.
On Google Analytics, I get my usual 3 readers a day, and a small number of tourists. The Blogger stats are always contaminated by link spam and get 10,000 per day. Now I suddenly got a 'legimate' 1.4K readers, but maybe there is a hack going on.
If suddenly, thousands of people want to follow the 'Rational Path' then you can buy me a cup of coffee. You will be disappointed if you want to follow a guru, because I bite all the hands that feed me.
The Rational Path is just the Scientific Method. It came into being because of the endless 'quackery' of the Victorian Era, or Snake Oil. We now live in an era of snake oil, because of influencers with thousands of followers, and that defines 'truth'.
We have the snake oil of climate change. I do not argue against it, because 'argument' does not lead to scientific progress. If we recast the issue in the Scientific Method, we put forward a hypothesis that can be tested. The test must allow for the hypothesis to 'fail'. Religious faith cannot fail, and Climate Change cannot fail by means of an experiment.
We have so many 'faiths' that I cannot recall them all. The blogs were about the coming of El Nino, and earthquake engineering. These are faiths and tradition and prop up a 'priesthood' who cannot afford to say 'My Bad'. When you see that, look out.
Thank you for giving me the illusion of readership, which can only be confirmed by coffee. I am safe from the countless priesthoods with academic blood on their hands, because to argue with me would make things 10 times worse. If I really thought I was becoming an influencer, I would hide under a big rock.
The deaths by earthquakes are an example of what happens when the real world meets faith. They should have not happened. A simple sensor can tell if your building is going to kill you, but that requires physics, and the Scientific Method. Not going to happen, since the SM can shatter a priesthood in a blink. Much too dangerous.
Earthquake methodology has an obvious physical failure. Rockets blow up. The El Nino will not show up, and excuses will be made, or all of it is totally forgotten. The waste of resources, however, results in thousands of deaths, as people fall in Standard of Living.
ps no coffees. It all looks like an exploit of link spam. Neat.
ps very sad I cannot access any velocity data for this earthquake.
As explained yesterday, the mechanism of two ships passing in the night, cause a big spike and now we are going to have a big drop.
This should be quite something. Don't you worry, though, El Santa is real in the hearts and minds of all those people who make money from him. Our weather is boring, but I'll keep updating this. Unless I'm wrong, of course, then I'll hide.
Two thrust earthquakes this week. First, a big one in the Philippines. Then a smaller one north of Cuba.
The size of this one is defined by the aftershock zone.
The Cuba earthquake most likely won't have aftershocks. These earthquakes can pack a punch close to the epicentre.
Damage for weak construction, but a lot of buildings stood. This is typical for 20 cm/s. All buildings should ride through this level of ground motion. We won't get recordings here.
Arctic spills are still dominating our weather.
Our only source of heat and rain is the Gulf of Mexico, and it is running out of gas, like the rest of the world. Expect big droughts.
Still no El Nino hype. Weird, because the Nino zone is going ballistic. That is, 'two ships grinding in the night' because the old heating event blob is colliding on the end of the Nino zone. It is almost past, and I'm waiting for this curve to drop.
The tropics are nothing compared the 'posthumously declared' El Nino of 2023-4. This will also drop when the heat blob passes on to die in Antarctica, like the last one.
ps the nino zone has now peak and is flat. I expect it to go down now.
Of all the coming groupthink busts, this one is the biggest party. Selling useless stock for $75B, puts up the value to 2 trillion. He lives in his drug-addled head, but can put on a good show.
The big rocket flies like a pig, so he threw in Artie, just to join crowd. Total genius! At your next party you can brag about this investment, the second coming of El Nino, and how windmills are the future. You can probably get that leftie college girl, if you have a Texla car. All is good.
In the old days, all of recorded history, we had a classic cycle in the Pacific. The Pacific Equatorial Belt would be fed from the northern waters, and a strong current would go west along the equator. The mechanism for this is quite simple, and involves rising hot water, and the equatorial bulge. Every 7 years or so, the hot water would clog up at the far western end, and barf back, as an El Nino.
The weather people believe that the air drives the ocean currents, and stick with that. It's a horrendous physics error, but it defines them.
In 2016, we had a tremendous event where the Pacific Belt was suddenly fed from the south. This sucked in the Antarctic cold water, and the Pacific Belt became cold. I could tell you about my frozen Tahiti vacation. The old cycle was shattered, and my hypothesis is that this event was the mechanism for a 300 year cold cycle, or Little Ice Age. As usual, all my hypotheses could be easily tested, but never will be.
With the El Nino Watch, since it doesn't exist any more, we just look at why they are being so obtuse.
We look at sea temps and it is obvious that the feed is from the south because of the temperature distortion. All water temps want to be stratified along latitude lines, but ocean currents pull things.
This is the anomaly plot. Flash both pictures in your mind. Something is wrong. However, the weather people choose whatever works for them. There is a mechanism for this, but who cares? Let's have an El Nino party!
The forecast looks great. Last year we had a good June, then a miserable July. I can't remember why. I'll try and keep better track this year, but when I go to the cottage, I can't do weather.
On this view, the Arctic has given up, and we are getting hot tropical air.
Then we look at Europe, and there is a huge Greenland Blob in the Atlantic.
Lucky us! The only heat in the world. Let's take those pictures!
This doesn't show much, but I suspect the Arctic will ruin our July again.
We can never apply physics to fantasy, but we can apply physics (math) to the appearance of hype. All 'El Nino will get you!' references are now 3 days old. The hype index is falling faster than world temperatures, if anybody had a way to measure anything.
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We were measuring the state of world temperature by pictures of people drinking water. Only the States shows a bit of heat, and no leftie cares about those trumpies. The world is cold.
This is exciting that the left-over blob of a recent heating event continues its voyage south and has gone past the equator. No el no-no here. The old blob of the 2024 heating event has been cut up by the cold water of the SE Pacific.
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The equatorial band is cold. This is the usual ellie track for warmth. What they are showing on the charts, and what you see here is north of the equator, and is due to a very shallow water return. The coast of S Am is warmer than normal because of the lack of a deep water draw that defined the old currents.
I am putting out the hypothesis that the 'fantasy fervour' is flagging. This whole thing will fade away, and we wait for the new great predictions. They are 'batting zero' but everybody believes them, sort of like trumpy and 'peace any minute' oil manipulation, but even that has reached a limit.
They were building Bruce B when I first joined the Old Company. I am deeply aware of the site. You see that nice line? It is the uncharted breakout of the Grenville Fault, part of the magnificent structure of the deep crust under Ontario. When I was doing site selection, before the Ontario ndp destroyed us, I rejected all of this as a site.
It is amazing what you can see with blinkers on. The lefties can't oppose this based on geology and physics, because that is the same stuff that destroys the illusion of climate change.
Bruce C plops into that hole in the middle. Lots of tunnels for water intake and outflow. A wonderful project, and I will never oppose it. I opposed the nuclear waste site just up the road on the same swiss-cheese rock, and was thoroughly swatted by the government review team. Who cares about the deep rock? It's so deep! At least that thing was quietly dropped.
But I am ridiculous with an interest in geophysics. I am also proposing that Pickering B has had the ground settle under it, and is suspended 3m by the steel piles, a fine zone for go-carts. At least I'm all for the Wesleyville big nuclear plant, that is solid rock.
As I have written, we are in the zone for a New Madrid style earthquake at the 1 in 1000 to 10000 odds per year. That's the Hamilton fault with endless signs that it is more active than New Madrid. When you have a nuclear plant with bad foundations, it bounces like a jelly cake. That makes the odds of a major radiation cook-off at 1 in 10,000, instead of the expected 1 in ten million. All of this can be swatted by pronouncements from influencers.
I will never get above my 3 readers, because the strict use of the Scientific Method would destroy political power. We just wait and have parties.
ps I love the concept of a Mining Influencer
Yes, we are starting the Party of Rationality.
Finally, the Arctic is shattered. It should warm up now, and we'll get all sorts of horror articles on how the ice is melting.
No places for heatwave pictures. Everybody is cold.
It's all fine. We should have heat soon.
This is great. We used to be worried that people would take our water. Kind of silly, water is impossible to move around, so is electricity. But, I want to be a Physics Influencer, and I can make a video of me, without me. Of course, I'll be better: a bit more chiselled with cheekbones. Make me 30 years younger. Open up those eyes more. The voice sounds like a chipmunk, Lorne Greene voice please.
Every time you see my video, I'm throwing a glass of water at you. So neat.
I don't see much money here, because everybody and their dog is doing it. Greenhouses and drugs are the way for more money. I want Coca tea!
That Arctic front will bring us some rain, but won't do much. We are into the full stagnant heat.
That magnificent Arctic Swirl is run by the heat seeping out of Europe. The hot plume has gone away.
Europe has cleared, it is only us now for the pictures. As we know, pictures are now the official determination of clange.
That Arctic Swirl is amazing, and is the mechanism for the summer warming of that region.
ps All Hail El Santa!
