Gulf Stream Collapses

 

We have so much fun when there is no physics to swat fantasy.

The Gulf Stream is opening up a new branch office.  

It has done this since 2016, but nobody noticed, except me.  In fact, the latest 'upcycle' defied my predictions for 'Frozen Britannia' for the last two years.  Now, we will finally have a hard signal for a 'Little Ice Age', or major ice cycle.  The Greenland Gap islands will be encased in ice, and the Thames will freeze over, if it were still a big fetid swamp, like in the 1700's.

After 2016, we had lost the Gulf Stream, and the North Pacific current.  The NP is still lost.

Hitting the Brick Wall of Heat

 

The Arctic will try again to slip down the mid-west.  The Toronto Front is holding well.  

My family visiting Europe is doing well.  Another Arctic spill will try to bust the Spanish Heat Inquisition.

We can still get the good pictures from France.

ps

ps Pacific heat blob continues to give hope to warmies.  Driving me nuts!

It is moving into the upper hot band.  Note that this is 1000 km off from the equator, yet they overlay the two.

ps at least somebody is happy

End of mswin

 

For years, all the gamers have fought for an advantage over the other shnook.  This has been in the form of win and the latest super graphics card.

Now, you can't get the latest card.  Win always had the advantage of getting the first and best driver.  Linux was always months behind, because the vendors didn't care.  The Steam machine is out, and there are lots of clones.  I think this is significant.

ps this has a chance of 90% being wrong.  My conjecture is that the games industry holds up win sales, mainly because the buyers can be bribed with games, and the general reputation.  If the games all flip to Linux, there will be an effect.  However, they can go to straight bribing with kickbacks, or not.

Advance in 3d printing alloys

 

So, 99% of this 'science porn' has no physics.  Batteries and fusion, blah.  However, I like this one as a major advance that is ridiculously simple.  But it took a massive effort to get there.  I can see this making a big difference in a few years.  As well, this is the way you'll get reactive triple aluminium into steel for magnets, thus killing the Chinese rare earth monopoly (maybe).  Just work on that tungsten!

Both solar and wind are useless during a stagnant heatwave

 

Ha, I find this to be hilarious.  Europe is busy buying every Chinese portable air conditioner, yet the Chinese solar panels are useless.  Man, those Chinese know how to sell!

Also, you can hang the laundry on the windmills during a solar furnace heatwave.  And both sides agree that we are getting more of these.

Trumpilizer draining his supporters

 

I don't think they'll be able to get in their pickups and vote this fall.

ps and he issues 'Soccer Pardons'.  

Arctic air is warm now

 

Yeah for Summer!  Our moderating winds are now coming from the Arctic.  Before, they always came from the Pacific.  

The warmies now have a little piece of Europe, for pictures.

Europe has a mixture of Arctic and Atlantic air to moderate the interior.  Spain and France are stagnant, which means a solar furnace.

My 'Death Scene' for Ellie is really dragging out.  The heat blob is constantly morphing and hanging out along the equator.  We'll be watching the gasping 'forever'.

Suffer the little children to be conned by me

 

ps there are no limits for him, and now it's taking candy from babies

Perfect weather for a while

 

Cooler and dry.  Really nice summer weather.  

ps the Pacific heat blob has gone all squigly, and is still tickling the Nino Zone.  

ps that cold blob just stopped at Toronto, giving us the perfect weather.  A new one is coming down the West.

Lightning gives us hope

 

He'll complete the speech on July 5

Trillions to go into things that don't exist with no steel for earthquake buildings

 

All I can say is if something has physics or not.  This is 'no physics'.  Spend trillions to reduce co2, even though the graph hasn't moved a speck with all the current effort.  That's because every effort to reduce carbon burns a heck of a lot of carbon.  Think windmills grow like trees?  The carbon graph is curving up in an exponential, and the world is getting colder.

I've been expecting this current to slow down ever since 2016.  Instead, it just wobbles up and down.  Nobody does the physics.

Anyway, nothing will happen.  

ps this is cute

Since lefties never talk about the limit of money, this is about spending more on air conditioning, as well as carbon reduction.  Neat.

ps I'm really late today (9pm) because I have to pick up new grandkid (daughter) from the hospital.  I mean no malice to my wonderful buddies, the warmies.  Live and let live.  They make all the money, and I wonder how far they can go.

Pacific tide level takes a dive

 

The most fun I have is to try and convince anyone that this plot is the most important thing for historic temperature cycles, plotted since 1930.  We have the Dust Bowl, and the sudden freeze for Hitler's invasion of Russia.  The world has been going up and down in general temperature since the beginning of time.

The definition of 'warmth' or 'cold' is not one-day heatwaves, but your heating and cooling bill.  This corresponds to 'Heating Degree Day' or 'Cooling Degree Day'.  It is a measure of heat energy.

The ocean level here is 'Absolute Sea Level', because this section of land is neither up nor down, like the Grand Old Duke of York.  Our poor little brothers south of the border can't tell this sort of thing.

We are getting cold.  The chart will match the 70's and maybe colder than that.  I put forward the hypothesis that we are entering a new 'Little Ice Age', but this is impossible to test on the short term.  We can decide 300 years from now.

I am happy that nobody talks about heat energy.  Everything is temperature, which doesn't have 'sticking power' since it can flip up and down in an instant.  Up and everybody knows it, down and the world is silent.  All good.

Your pension fund going into nuclear power

 

I don't mind, because I'll be dead before any of this happens.  I love the big nuclear plant at Wesleyville, but all the rest are gumpy.  Especially, the impossible Bruce C.  Will the pension funds have a gun pointed at their collective heads?  Are they better off with 'popularity' stocks?

Anyway, nobody's asking me, and I'm happy with that.  I have my 3 readers.  I have my 'no coffee', and all is good.

One big waste of money is our 4 Baby Reactors.  It was meant to be a showcase, but nobody wants them anymore.  The fad came and went, and we are still building them.  A 300 MW reactor is as much trouble as one 10 times bigger.  And they need enriched uranium, which Russia can't sell us.  Poops.

Philippine Earthquake has aftershocks, Venezuela has none

 

Still having aftershocks

Over in Vennie, there are none.  That was a clean M8.

The difference is in the post-quake stress distribution.  I like to model them with discrete elements, usgs models with solid-steel stress.  No fault has ever been found to hold much stress.  There was a good hypothesis that the San Andreas must have a lot of heat because of the solid steel grinding, but none was ever found.  After that, they abandoned the Scientific Method.

With discrete elements you model it as fractured, with the fault being a lot weaker.  That gives a huge stress hole around the faults, like excavating a tunnel.  All that fractured rock starts to creep.  In the days when I actually ran those models, you could see the discrete elements propagated stress disturbances about 10 times further than a usgs elastic model.  I need a lot more coffees before I start modelling again.

I believe that faulty physics probably cost a lot of those lives.  For ven, the creep will go to the next part of the fault but not for years.  The stresses applied to the fault will be compressive for a while, and not shear.

For phil, the stress hole puts compressive stress on the rest of the fault.  That's why they will have another earthquake long before ven, but could be years.  I think that 'months' is more likely.  As I've said, no diff to the people.

The mere fact of 'no steel' implies both corruption and massive ignorance.  You can't get away with putting in no steel.  I remember in Cancun, there was a tax loophole that 'no tax' until the building was 'completed'.  That's why no building was ever completed.  They all had massive forests of reinforcing steel sticking out and waving in the breeze.  Once a para-skier had the boat stall.  The wind drifted him to the forest, and....

ps this is called falling off the 'standard of living' cliff.  I blame lefties for sucking money out of the system to cause this.  Nice shiny windmills and solar cells.  Every house now has a huge lithium battery.

Toronto heatwave to be shattered by Arctic flows

 

Nothing much to say over yesterday.  El Nino keeps knocking at the door, but it can't come in.  Climate Change is a bust, but never during Summer.  Our only hope for heat is that the Arctic shuts down the Ice Machine Vortex.

A new vortex is forming, so that's a no, for July, which will be as miserable as last year.  Hope is still turned on for August.  Snow starts in October, winter for 6 months, snow in May.

We are making our own glaciers now.  Sorry Barrie, double that space for this winter.  Everybody, double your snow-clearing budget.

ps at least somebody's having fun

He'll win the prize for "Most Presidential Graft"

ps like we've never had heatwaves before

El Nino has Left the Building

 We have another day before the 'Hottest Ocean Temperatures Ever!' are not so hot.  

Their big splashy headlines are only lasting a day now.  I wonder if people wonder about that?  I suppose if they can just get the headline up for day, it's golden.

The heat blob that was masquerading as El Nino has totally broken up and is under the equator now.

 The 'Nino Zone' is dropping.  This is the time they should say 'Ha, No El Nino, our bad' but they won't.

We now live in the time period where there is not a speck of anything leading to a 'Super El Nino', but they keep hanging on.  This does not affect them in the least.  They constantly rewrite history.

I greatly enjoyed my two days of summer.  The lake got up to a reasonable temperature.  The grandkid was swimming.  Life is good.

If the darn Arctic miraculously turns off, we may recover with a warm August.  

ps 

Man, I love a Code Red!

End of the Happy Heatwaves

 No heatwaves left in the world.  The Arctic has proved to be much more active.  I thing this happened last year, but I don't remember.  August should be good.

Nobody is hot, but the headlines shall live forever.  

Both Europe and NA are getting the 'Big Sweeps'.  

The Arctic is still full blast.  Will it stop this year?  I was expecting 'Solid Heatwave' this summer because the Pacific is dead.  

El Nino is still still-born.  We must wait to see what they will do.

Cottage Report

 July long weekend, the cottage of my youth.  Hot, muggy with lots of thunderstorms.  The cold June has the blueberries behind, but for the first time in 20 years, we have some.  The fish might even be back.

The Internet is bad, so no weather stuff.

ps huge storm the Wed night, but we survived with power.  Hot, hot hot.  Swimming all day.  

The path less travelled

 

Today, we note that Toronto owns the only heatwave in the world.

And this is the plot that gave the headline.  The flat line just crossed a little valley, and is cruising into another lump.

It is being held up by the Nino Zone, which is collapsing.  

A better indicator is the Atlantic hurricane zone, which is trying to hide deep underground.  No hurricanes for you.

Ozone hole goes back forever

 

This is an excellent article in the art of making things up.  They found that the ozone hole existed before freon, and then blamed carbon tetrachloride "because it's there".

The physics hypothesis is that we always had it, and it is related to temperature.  During our cold cycles, nothing at all happens in the ozone layer, so no ozone is formed.

This was always my best example of "dogma over the Scientific Method".  nasa needed some drama, found one chlorine atom on a plane survey, and conjured up the whole freon disaster.  The funny thing is that they still had some scientists in the basement who followed the SM.  Those guys did an experiment in their atmospheric chamber, and published that no chemical reactions were possible under the extreme cold and vacuum-like conditions.  Hoo Boy!  They were destroyed, and the papers, which I once read, disappeared from the Universe.

After that, no more sm.

Nobody in Ottawa can pass the French test

 

In our family we have endless stories of true Francophones failing the official French test for more money.  This was another test.  What's wrong with flashing pubic hair, I say?

Philippines Earthquake not done yet, Venezuela Earthquake is finished

 This is a tale of two earthquakes.  They were the same in that they had shaking on basins and the pgv was mostly 20-40 cm/s except right on top.  I talk in absolute terms for 80-90% confidence, which is much more restrictive that most media.  As always, I expect that nobody will read this.

Forget the 'Double Tap Crap', this was a standard M8, 100 km long.  They always rupture in fits and starts, and this was well within the norm.  The USGS should not have declared it two earthquakes, a big math error, caused by AI.

Like I've said, the USGS has a model of two steel plates releasing energy, formulated during the steam era.  Totally wrong.  In fact, the rupture resembles an excavation into stressed rock.  The strength of the fault has always been near-zero, and it goes to zero in an earthquake.  I liken this to a recurring volcano.  They are finally starting to see my side, that the magma is resting in a solid container, formed by rock arching, or a hole in the stress.  The next outburst does not come from some sealed-off intake, but from the failure of that stress arching.  Easily measured, and they have done some.  I have the curse of always being right, and never believed.  All influencers are the other way round, with lots more money.

This is now the same for this earthquake.  All that crap about the fault 'nearing the highest stress in 1000 years' is crap.  In 100 years, there may be another earthquake down the railway tracks, but not here.  However, they are on a jelly basin, and must use screw piles, real concrete, and tied-in steel.

Not such a happy picture for the Philippines.  The mechanics of the stress distribution puts increased thrust on the next section, but not on the fault.  We can expect failure and whoosh goes the fault down the tracks.  This was the mechanism for the Christchurch earthquakes.

As for impact on a place already smashed, it might be little or none, or lots.  The seismic motions will be a tiny bit smaller, but many buildings are softened but unrated.  As with the other quake, everybody will go happy-happy into their 'undamaged' building, and smack!  Again, the only way to handle this is as I said with ven.  Also, follow my guidelines in my best-seller book: "So, You Don't Wanna be a Pancake".  Coming out soon.

State of the Oceans - June 29, 2026

 We have reached close enough to July to do this.  I have 3 steady readers because I stick to the Scientific Method.  Nobody else does, because they like to define themselves by dogma, which is a stated position by a celebrity.  The SM puts all the chips on the table for an experiment, and empires may fall.  No way anyone in power is going to do this.

The downside of dogma is that it drifts away from reality, as defined by the basic laws of physics.  You can always think you can fly by flapping your arms, but one day the odds-chickens come home to roost.

My main hypotheses for weather are:  We have a wildly convective atmosphere, including 'invisible' clear air convection.  No way we can have any sort of greenhouse effect.  It's like building a greenhouse without glass.

 The other is that ocean currents convect on their own, with 100 times the energy density of air.  They distribute the heat energy around the world, and the air just tags along.  The dogma has the air driving the currents.

This is the best plot to see what's going on.  The ocean currents have switched the feed to the equatorial belt, showing the start of a Major Ice Cycle (same as the Little Ice Age).  Under this new regime we had a major heating event in 23-24.  Since then we have had reverberations, getting smaller and smaller, and ending now.  You can see it all on this chart.

The heating events go down S-E.  This last one grazed the Nino Zone and flung up the curve.  The poor weather people totally missed the 23-24, and only snuck in references to it as an El Nino when it was done.  That's because it had a huge effect on this curve.

This last heat blob is breaking up.  There will be no great effect on the charts, which seems to be the definition of the day, for these things.  They will give a party, but nobody will come.

Even in the midst of the Little Ice Age, we had 2 weeks of summer.  The mechanics of a heat wave is the Sun overhead and no breeze.  Nothing to do with global trends.  However, the wipe-out of heat energy in the Pacific leads to stagnant pockets.

The currents change day to day.  The big reversal current is above the equator, and is carrying relative warmth (anomaly) but not very hot for the world.  The weather people made the 'Big Mistake' of overlaying an equatorial sea level anomaly over the hot zone.  Only out by a few hundred klicks.  You will never hear about it.

The state of the oceans means a very short, intense summer, followed by snow and cold that will make the last two years seem tropical.  The climate people will simply adjust their dogma, and all will be well.  There is nothing that could get them to admit they are floating on a cloud that is starting to freeze solid, and coming screaming down.  Their groupthink does not lead to a disaster.

A new Arctic blob sweeps clean

 

Enjoy a heatwave when it comes.  

Arctic air is sweeping Europe.  Still time for some pictures.

California is still cold.

The Arctic Ice Vortex keeps coming back.  Why won't it die?  Maybe summer is reduced to 2 weeks in July.  

ps The Last Heat Blob in the Pacific is nearly dead.  The world air temperature is diving.  But at long as we have pictures, we're golden.