That's right, Toronto is setting up the training right now.
This is the ramp, and a nice lifter curl at the end. Of course, distance is the main point-getter, but style is important, too. Must land gracefully on the two back wheels, and gently place down the front wheels.
No points for landing on your head.
This is our worst scenario for buildings - unmortared piles of stone. Over the years, I have settled on 2 cm/s for this type of damage. People run out of office towers at 2 mm/s. Note that the floppy building in the background is still standing. I always look in the background of these pictures.
Obviously, they should follow Guatemala by using concrete and steel. Also the extremely heavy roofs of Peru are a factor.
Very gloomy today. All is cold.
Looks like we can sing "Final Curtain" for the heat blob.
ps in summary, the Arctic Vortex was killed for HeatDay, and has now come back with a vengeance. 50% tariff on ice!
ps since trumps killed off mimic, I have to go to satellite. You can see the weather being dragged down the middle.
I can't find any new lurid 'Ellie will kill you' headlines.
ps the Gulf Stream continues to drip like an ice cream cone. I'm waiting for more 'Cold is caused by carbon' articles. I saw a few now.
This is happening very fast for ocean currents.
ps on the dog walk this morning and a young coyote prances by us, ignoring my old barking dog. They are getting ready for winter.
ps yeah! Back to lurid headlines.
We're all going to DIE!
Why wasn't it equipped with the usual chaff defence, etc? Because it is equipped for royalty. There is only so much you can load onto a plane before it becomes a boat anchor. I am sure there was once a discussion of anti-missiles and toilets and the toilets won.
I'm sure we'll get at least one day of heat next year. It will be magnificent! Everybody books off work. We turn off all our air conditioning to be like the Europeans. All the computers go off to give the giant AI data centres a break.
We have a parade with big signs that say "HeatDay would be impossible without Climate Change"
We have booths where people can get good pictures of them 'dying' in the heat. Extra points for the most drama.
Then we go back to freezing.
ps another great sign "All weather physics was done in 1850"
ps this is another great sign. Note that they are all freezing.
Obviously, this is Climate Science. Physics doesn't have any money.
ps my vision of the future is all the self-defined climate scientists gathering around the fire barrel, freezing to death.
Now, we are going through movies. The Gulf Stream had the WizzyOz with its melting act, and now all of us in the north are in the Elsa movie.
Yes, Virginia, Santa has started up the Great Arctic Spin, and washed away all those nasty heatwaves that made so many nice pictures. Our nights are back to 12C, and I better cut more firewood for the cottage.
The Pacific blob is being worn away, and is finally dashing off to 'Where Elephants Go to Die', in the SE. It was caught like a fish between two currents, poor thing.
The Arctic Ice Machine Vortex is spinning.
And the Pacific currents remain the same. No El Ninny coming.
As we run out of heatwaves, all the forces of warmyness will go back to their rocks, ready to come out next summer for our one-day heatwave. The one this summer was a doozy, and burned some of my tomatoes. Next year, don't prune away the leaves until the Heatday is over.
With the Gulf Stream dead, we will finally have those unpronounceable Arctic islands encased in ice. This is the first 'historic signal' of the Major Ice Cycle. We only have history for the ending of the Cold Zone for North America. Be ready for the 10 foot snow, Mr. Huntsville.
ps if you are Rich and Crazy in Singapore, buy me a coffee!
ps Ha Ha!
ps they don't have a clue
Do you know we've had forest fires since the beginning of time? We've had droughts, as well. The big difference right now is that we are getting cold winds from the Arctic pushing the smoke down on us. In the old days we had Pacific westerly air.
Same as the California fires. They were whipped up by Arctic air. Neat.
In a digression, the world cup restored my faith in why I hate world cup soccer. They just diddle around for 2 hours and then pop into the net.
Arctic air is resurgent. I assume that it will now get stronger for the winter.
The Gulf Stream continues its act from the Wiz - "I'm melting!"
The Arctic has a clockwise vortex that is pouring cold down on us.
This is neat. Shows how the 'Fooling Blob' evolved. The tiny remnant is now stuck south of Hawaii. This is the thing they call El Nino.
This is the depth animation. It has hotter water below cold. This can only happen in a dynamic sense, that is with a current. It is dying, and so, with it, all hopes of Ellie.
This is where we are in relation to the 2024 heating event. That wasn't really noticed in reality, just on the charts, and was declared only after the event.
ps more heat in the media than real heat
ps I'm getting huge random numbers on Analytics, but not a cup of coffee. And all new, never a repeat.
I don't get my geophysics any more because they blew out a weather server, and those things need to be as fast and as powerful as a US Artie. Infinite money has made it impossible to get a new weather server because the Arties have bought up everything.
Now, we hope they are shattered. However, I have no idea what this all means. Have they achieved 10 times efficiency? You can't figure it out. I'm waiting for someone to say they matched the Artie giants with a phone.
I hope it's something. Trumpy wants to corner the breakthroughs of the American giants to rig the election. It's the Chinese standing up for freedom! Ha!
Only with a Chinese Artie would you be able to calculate the total amount trumpy has sucked in with his corruption. The US would never do that.
ps buy Google on Monday at 2 bucks.
I think they have slipped down the anomaly line a bit, to be more consistent with their religion.
I did a video flipping back and forth. There is nothing in the pure sea temps, but a lot in the anomaly. We can never see the anomaly base map. The anomaly hot line used to be a 1000 klicks higher, and is now right on the equator, with the cold water.
The whole Super El Nino thing is based on the anomaly only. If it were 1000 km up, then it would mean nothing. This is fun.
I'm not saying anything, but think of the Big Money pressure!
ps I think they read me. I had complained it was 1000 km off, and they fixed it.
I've been waiting for this for a long time. The leftie-warmies always proceed as if money grows on trees. However, if you destroy the economy, then there are earthquakes, and Russian missiles. The standard of living drops, and millions die.
Naturally, this is getting the full media treatment. Lots of fun.
To be clear, I really call this a major ice cycle, but Ice Age is a movie. What has been always ignored by the warmies is that we have cycles of warm and cold. Historically, these are best defined by how north they have been able to grow grapes and oats. Using crops is a 'heat energy' thing, and very much in line with physics.
My best indicator since 1930 is the tide gauge in Oregon. This only shows the 'short cycles' lasting a decade or two. The long cycles last about 300 years in total.
My mechanism for these cycles is action in the Pacific, which controls all our weather. A short cycle is 'El Nino Action' which is heat activity of the historical Pacific equatorial belt. That has always been fed from the North Pacific. There is a mechanism of heat energy accumulation and release. I have never figured that out because it is so complex, and involves massive ocean convection, with vortexes.
Anyway, that mechanism is long gone. Now we have the belt feed from the south, and it is cold water. Our last few heating events have been diagonal, down to the SE. We still have a heat blob from one stuck in the equatorial currents.
This is the chart the warmies have always used, in various forms. It is the air temperature, summed over squares all over the world. It has no physics, but it correlates most with the general concept of feeling warmer or colder. It shows all the recent heating events, including the major one of 23-24. It is dropping like a rock.
The warmies have switched over to the summed sea temperatures which is invalid over the summer because it leaves out the poles. Any port in a storm, I suppose.
The best 'physics approved' indicators of an ice cycle will be 'heating and cooling degree days'. This directly correlates with snow budgets and heating bills. Once again the US will get close to 'Empty' on their natgas storage.
There is no record of weather in NA during a major ice cycle. We just have reports from the early settlers. Looks like fun.
Our summer will be short, saving on air conditioning, and our winter will be longer than the last ones. Yeah! Meanwhile, the media will claim that it is all climate change.
ps this hypothesis is 'testable' by heating degree days and snow budgets. It could be wrong, and it's back to the drawing board. No foul. The warmie mumbo-jumbo is not testable. It can be 'proved' to be always right by self-interest consensus.
ps if you look at the backgrounder, you can see my mechanism for Continental Ice Advance, which is confused with Ice Age. It involves the up and down motion of the continents, and cannot happen for another 10,000 years. When the continents are all up at the top, and we have a Major Ice Cycle, then the snow will stay for the summer. Inch by inch...
These guys are going with cold for El Nino. Their forecast is exactly like mine.
But these guys are going for a mild winter. So cancel your snow budgets.
The warmies have never used this chart before. They have pooh-poohed it because it is only a 60 to 60 map that excludes the polar regions because they freeze. That makes the chart flaky in the summer.
I went through the long Europe article and not a speck of physics, or anything you can verify. A bit like a Trumpy speech. They don't show that the air temperatures, which they have always used, is diving.
This is my best correlation to the concept of 'Is it generally warm or cold?' When all the headlines scream 'Warmest year ever!' there is no solid definition. My hypothesis is that we are heading into a major ice cycle. However, July is the same with a hot or cold world.
The true measure would be total heat energy. Averaging temperature has no physics. The Gulf Stream is dropping out of existence, and the heat blob in the Pacific is staying still and distorting sea temperatures. Expect that our summer is over, and we'll have the old-school cool August.
The smoke map shows that the NW wind is carrying forest fire smoke to Toronto. It's thick up at the cottage. The wind is shifting to the NE from the Arctic so it will clear the smoke and end our summer.
The charts are all showing rapid cooling for the world. All our heatwaves will stop getting media coverage because they are dead.
The heat blob in the Pacific is solid again, showing we are carving through sections of a very irregular deep blob that slowly rises. It has virtually no heat content. The ocean currents are now showing a full reversal with no heat. We truly have an El Nino, in all but heat. However, there is no physics definition of the thing in terms of game physics, so we are dreaming.
I hope some sun gets through this smoke.
ps in the evening, the smoke has cleared out and it is getting cool.
I am crippled without mimic, and it might be dead forever. Trumpy has thrown out the physics baby with the bathwater of warminess.
The Arctic is spinning again, and northern air is going to wipe out our one-day heatwave. Made for some good headlines.
This has always been a good chart for me. It has levelled out.
The Nino zone is gone. The heat blob is a donut. The Gulf Stream continues to fall. Since I like it when I'm wrong, I'll let you know.
Henry Ford wanted to build cars that his workers could afford. The Arties want to build data centres that nobody can access because they are out of a job, and can't connect anyway because of no computers.
All those companies that think they can get rid of all their workers, and just run robots. Who do they think they can sell to?
This is funny because the commies at the Guard always want to kill billionaires and throw their money out of planes. Because trillionaires are environmental disasters. But you spread the money and what are the first things people want? Bigger houses and bigger cars. That trillion dollars is ten times worse spreading it around, rather than tied up in companies.
Now, we'll tie up all computer capability in data centres. Neat.
ps the first big casualty is computer gaming. If you can't buy the latest graphics card, why bother? Look to see the big layoffs in that industry.
Yesterday it was gyrating like a pole dancer, today it is in pieces.
The physics hypothesis is that we have an old, deep heat blob being 'grated' by fast, thin, ocean currents. It has finally come to the roots of the multi-pronged carrot.
The hypothesis gets one brownie point if that curve continues to fall.
Meanwhile, all heat energy is leaving the sub-polar North Atlantic. Some people live in that zone.
That's just the window for measurement. I feel sorry for those people.
In our neck of the woods, we have a super-hot single day. I'm delaying going to the cottage.
All the mimic people are on vacation, but you can see why this is a single day of infamy. Look for the pictures!
ps Holy Cow! Walking outside reminds me of walking Las Vegas. Survival time estimated at 10 minutes.
ps I thought it was dry. Humidity only 43%.
ps only getting a couple of readers on Analytics. Must be the heat. Totally proves that I'm completely wrong, and living in my own world.
I'm finally tracking the movement of the Pacific heat blob, otherwise called El Nino, and it isn't moving at all.
It changes shape every day. Beautiful dancing.
If we go by the current, then it was perfectly bisecting at this spot, and now the bottom stream is dry. We get no heat from this current, but a huge anomaly because it is going over a zone that is usually very cold. A slightly warm current gives a huge signal. That's why it is always good to look at several charts, and not the only one that confirms your beliefs.
This current does not budge the heat blob, so I conclude it is a very thin current that is letting the infra-red from the blob through. The dancing is caused by the blob being shaved like cheese for the pasta.
There will be no heat shift usually caused by this El Nino. I can't say there will be 'No Ellie' because it has no physical definition, and is just a fantasy. The snowing Gulf Stream will have 10 times the effect.
ps this is fun. How will they end it when nothing happens?
Remember how I said there was nothing going on with the Gulf Stream? I was wrong. It's falling to the equator. This is not 'too much heat' but rather the total lack of heat energy.
This is exciting because it is happening now, quite rapidly. The middle of the Atlantic can grow ice cubes.
This line in the Atlantic is growing thousands of klicks a day.
There has never been a line like that. Also, the GS has turned blue very suddenly. I've been at the cottage, and missed most of this.
The bottom of the current is peeling off.
This is a close-up. Poor UK is going to freeze. I consider this a true anxiety story, with physics. I was waiting for something dramatic to give the warmie-spinners a real challenge, and this is it. Greenland is super cold, so the usual blame of 'Greenland Melting' needs some work.
This is amazing and we are watching it in real time. You can actually talk about this at 'stagnant heat' pool parties because it is a story for both fantasy and physics. Blame Greenland.
ps this has the physics of snow falling. The eddies of heat energy are falling like snow, and the red line is a drift. The drift is an effect, like the jet stream, and is not a physical object with mass and velocity. That's why it can zoom really fast across the Atlantic. I have no idea what the base is.
No weather today, the mimic site is still down. No comment on the above, it has no physics.
Most important for all structures is to have some margin. That is the 10% extra money you throw in to be above the minimum of collapsing without an earthquake. If you build something that barely stands, then watch out for shaking.
You can see here that all cities carry the same 'one in a thousand' risk for a devastating earthquake. This can be understood in terms of the pgv or peak ground velocity. We can feel 1 mm/s very strongly, and everybody gets out of the buildings.
Venezuela showed us we can have very weak buildings collapsing at 20 cm/s. A good 'earthquake' building should ride through 20-40 cm/s and still be functional. This is the level for a standard frame house on a basement. Maybe some drywall cracking.
Every city has a reasonable chance of 20 cm/s. The problem with cities that haven't had that for a couple of hundred years is that they build very close to the line, perhaps putting in some wind resistance.
Although I am muddled about this, you can see that for the same earthquake New York will be Vennie. It's at the 1 in 1000 to 10000 for everywhere. Vennie was less than 1 in 100. But the East Coast cities have had big earthquakes because they have a sinking continental margin. Comparing the cost of 20 cm/s to both cities has NYC an order of magnitude greater. You think they would do something.
Nobody is putting a little bit of money in physics, and I see some horrible things in the future.
ps with that one column obviously busted, you have the whole building softened. So this is a pancaker in an earthquake.
ps with the Chile earthquake at 40 cm/s you had soft-story condos cracking and tilting. They would have had to be demolished. I think it should be the same fate for this building.
My prediction holds as we enter wonderful stagnant heat, with cool nights. The whole bay is full of screaming kids, and we are in the water all day. We have days of sunshine coming, and the ground is full of water.
My weather forecast is on-track, no Pacific heat.
ps weather is still perfect. Arctic has finally gone into summer hibernation. Now we get some really good summer heatwaves. Drink a bottle of water, and get on the warmie news. Pacific heat blob continues it's shimmy-shimmy dance. The big charts are finally turning down, but the hype is turning up.
Around the neighbourhood, people engage the sleaziest people to do construction. Especially roofing. At the top of the market, they would slap on a roof and sell. The roof only lasted a few years.
It's a hard job to pump up this summer. No heat coming from the Pacific, so El Nino is working through Quantum Entanglement. I'm just enjoying what heat we get.
My top physics site is out right now.
There is still some Arctic flow that can wipe the stagnant pockets.
The Arctic looks like it wants to start up the Ice Machine again. That is the big vortex in the Arctic Basin. If we want massive stagnant heatwaves, then that thing has to die.
The reverse current is dying in the Pacific. It's a 2 inch thick thing that doesn't carry any heat energy. The main westward current along the equator is pumping up. It will soon cut up the remnants of the heat blob that is giving hope to the Super Ellie crowd.
Thank goodness, I thought he was worried about the mid-terms, but going back to war allows him to postpone the elections, and become a dictator. This is a new war, so it's another 60 days, and then another war.
I have tracked both the 1997, and the 2016 reversals by the ocean currents. Since the ocean has more than 10 times the heat energy density (maybe 100 to 1000) of air, I go with that.
The current (sic) rise in the charts is due to a leftover heat blob that is not moving down below the equator, like all the other ones since 2023.
This tremendous anomaly is 1000 km north of the equator, and is not reflected in the temperature. That's because they never show the base map that causes this phoney thing. Such a horrible physics error, that I think they stopped showing it, because it is embarrassing.
The fact the blob can stay there, while the ocean current is rushing by, shows the wonderful 3d nature of ocean currents. We could have the full 3d ocean currents, but that would be more physics. You can get a hint of what is driving the blob, but looking just South of where it is, and we have the SE current that has been driving all the previous blobs.
I expect this to go away soon, and all the charts to go back to diving. Then we await the new phoney justifications for the Super-Girl El Nino. (a box-office bomb)
ps thoughts on the current that carries no heat. This is a very thin rapid current, overlaying the heat blob. It is essentially glass, letting out the infrared that the satellites pick up. It is partially screened and that's why it is morphing all the time. Neat.
Maybe.
Some leftover blobs still coming down.
But the winds don't agree with the MIMIC, which is weird. I would like to declare the Arctic Ice Machine dead, but you never know who wakes up in the morgue. Damn cold.
Now, if it follows my hypothesis, then no more Arctic blobs, and we have a fine stagnant Summer, with lots of pictures. Now, if I could only get that baby rabbit out of my garden.
