State of the Oceans - September 30, 2026

 We are in stagnant air.  There is no plume action from the Pacific.  I do have it from the AI that should El Nino start doing something, it will be obvious with the Pacific Plumes.  Right now, everything is 'Comin' Down the Mountain'.  

Right now, the ninoscreamers are heavily reliant on "The Splotch".  This was created when the AI slipped in a ridiculous base map, of a near-frozen equator.  Nobody works at nooa any more, so it will never be fixed.

THE SPLOTCH

   Since the base map overwhelms the actual data, it will never change.  In fact, I'm in serious trouble about the hot blob staying in the Nino Zone so long.

These things have been just rolling out the bottom, with no effect on the world temperature, but this one is hanging around and actually starts to look like an El Nino.  The reverse cold current from the South is not that obvious on the ocean-current map, but it is still sucking up cold water from the bottom.  Of course, The Splotch is oblivious to all this trouble.

If there were a chance that the current Pacific situation would affect our hemisphere, we would notice a minor bump.  Nada.

Now for something completely different - the North Atlantic

There is zero heat energy pouring into the North.  This will freeze the bejeesous out of the UK.  That whole section should get frozen this year, which is the first time since 1600 or so.

The whole Gulf Stream has failed.  This has been off and on since 2016, but this time I think it is serious.  It is the Pacific that heats the Atlantic.  Not happening this year.  The Gulf of Mexico drives this.

The ice-extent chart is going wild.  The AI keeps trying to tell me this is expected.  Ha.

Starship still destroys engines

 I said originally, that this pig can't fly.  They went with the 'Engineering Tyrant's' forced vision, and dug a big hole in the ground.  That's because he wanted a comic book rocket, nice and shiny with stainless steel.

Since then, they have been scrambling with modifying the rocket.

They started painting it black right away.  You can't tell if it has any SS in it any more.  Probably all carbon.  He wanted a 'pinched tail' but they had physics to fight him.  Now, every launch they are fighting him, and they are still busting engines on launch.

So much fun, and they never mention how close they are loading to the maximum capacity.  I suspect they are still nearly empty.  They are constantly cruising right near the 'damage margin' and a commercial ship must be well over it.  Only racing cars go near that line.

They shave weight and cruise the line.  Maybe next time, no engines blow up.  What is their margin?  This is fun.

A single rocket can only be so powerful.  That's because of the bearing strength of the Earth.  Concrete and giant waterfalls only add 10% or so.  Margins are usually expressed as a factor of two.  

ps whoops, engine thing

Much needed rain coming

 

The Arctic vortex is sending down a spur of very cold air.  

I had a nice time with the AI last night.  I kept hammering on why we don't see anything yet, with the El Nino, and it kept coming back that this was expected.  Anyway, it admitted that we must see increased Pacific Plume activity, in order to affect North America.  This is to start in October.

I don't see any difference between now and the start of last winter.  The Nino-Screamers are depending totally on 'The Splotch', which is is a math error.  For now, just expect the same as last winter.

ps if we have last winter, Europe will be worse.  

Linux new project - a dedicated AI server

 Under warranty, I got a new replacement Minisforum UM773 lite, packed with all the cheap memory I bought last year.  That was better than buying bittycoin.

I was using this machine to improve old videos, but I got through all of them.  Now, I want to use it as my own AI machine.  I run Linux, and installed Gemma4.  Then I installed Openclaw, because gemma alone is useless.  My intention is to corrupt the AI to use physics and the Scientific Method.  

Not getting anywhere, but it seems to be a nice project.

ps I'll get back to my accelerometers, and let the AI deal with patterns

Arctic Ice Increases at a Record Pace

 We continue to have our conflicting signals.  It's no conflict for me, but just for the world in general.  I have never 'denied' the climate change dogma.  If you want to join the 'Physics Club', then there are other thoughts.

This is the 'heaviest' chart.  I find it amazing.  You can see on other charts how the Gulf Stream has left the northern building, and everything is freezing up.  

The Nino zone chart is still up, and may be up for a long time.  It is getting a parade of hot water blobs that carry no heat energy.  A fine example on how temperature is not energy.

In Toronto, we are getting fine stagnant air. 

The media is blathering on about how that Pacific hurricane is pumping up hot air for us, but it isn't.  We are just getting slow Gulf Air.  The nor-eastern effect is still hanging around, and there is no action from the Arctic, even though the Arctic Ice Vortex is still chugging along.

No heat energy from El Nino.  We'll just have to wait some more, if you like waiting for a streetcar on a road with no tracks.

ps you can read all the news on how the streetcar is coming any minute now.

Minisforum warranty comes through

 

Minisforum is coming in big, for such a small computer.  They have seized the mini format, and are jamming in tremendous power.  I have nothing but minicomputers in the house, running Linux.

Putting in such power means innovative cooling solutions.  Before last Christmas, I saw the coming DDR5, and ssd, appookalipse and ordered a powerful machine to run some AI video processing.  It came with a 'liquid metal' cooling system.  It worked fine for 6 months.

Then I got hit with a problem that was all over the Internet.  The cooler became an insulator.  I could only run for 5 minutes before it died.  No problem, in order to instil confidence in their machines, they put in a 2 year warranty.  Their machines really are on the bleeding edge, and they needed this.

My problem was that I had lots of memory and a ssd drive that was now 3 times more expensive.  I took that out, and they sent a new machine that had the same memory holder format.  I just put in my chips and it worked perfectly.  They went through a lot of effort to find a solution that worked.

So, buy with confidence.  Hopefully, prices will drop soon.

El Nino train hasn't left the station

 In order for the El Nino to affect the rest of the world, we need measurable heat energy to roll over us.  

We just have lazy heat blobs 

They are continuing to enter the Nino zone.  The weather people have two problems.  First, the poop skid mark isn't leaving.

It just sits there.  It is an AI error which nobody wants to correct.  Caused by subtracting too much from the actual temperatures.  Nothing can budge it.

The other is that 'averaged temperature' does not equal heat energy.  The Nino zone keeps going up because that dang blob is constantly rotating.  I keep wait for the temperature to go down, and it never does.

All other charts are going down, just these two things keep the hopes alive.  

ps and the ice extent is going all 'hockey stick' (inflection point).  That's amazing, and you will never read about it.

ps one day, the Pacific plumes will pour over us, if the train can find some coal

Nor-Easter hits land

I've been waiting for the exact instant.  

These things get great disrespect from the weather people.  They should be named and rated.  It's just because they are a sign that winter is coming early, and nobody likes that.

ps I thought this would be more energy, but it was just a rain storm.  Probably below a Cat 1 hurricane.  sheesh.

Nor-Easter to bring Toronto unexpected rain

 

It's a hit on the coast, while maintaining a perfect form.  Since I have never followed such a storm, it is amazing to me.

Meanwhile, Old Man Winter is trying to sneak in.

ps no video today.  Googs is having a day.

Sorry, it was my system.

ps and its finally in the news

ps I'm guessing the concept of an early nor-easter is quite upsetting to the climate marxists.  One article was yelling that it doesn't mean anything.

A perfect storm

 

Not in the news at all.  Everybody thinks this is nothing.  We'll see.

Nor-Easter on final approach

 Note that there is no rating on this.  I would call it equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane.  All the coast should be evacuated, yet everything is 'ho hum'.  If there are high deaths, then someone might mention physics.

Cottage Report - Sept 25, 2026 - A cold Fall

 This continues the very dry weather that is warm in the day, and very cold at night.  Another big cold blob is coming down so it will soon freeze.

No fall colours yet.  You can see the water is way down.  

ps ozone hole is huge.  Like I said, totally due to temperature.  What can we ban next?

Arctic ice extent hooking in faster

 

There are two charts that I'm looking at.  One is the Nino zone falling like a rock, and the other is a change of curvature for the Arctic ice extent.  This curve is mainly dependent on what is happening in the upper Greenland Gap.

For the entire duration of the past warm cycle, we have had the Gulf Stream warming up this basin.  Now that it has collapsed, the heat energy is gone.  This map is an overlay of current with sea temperature.  I expect the whole thing filled with ice this winter or next.  

The climate marxists are holding the Polar Vortex in the wings.  They have this wonderful dream of a giant swirl in the near-vacuum of the stratosphere, putting up a big fence for the Arctic Cold Cows.  Since the whole thing does not exist and cannot be measured, if it becomes super cold, they imagine that the fence becomes broken.  Of course, this lets out all the cold cows.

I love this fantasy, and it is one of many holding up the weather people, so they get their pay checks.  

The ice extent curve is now setting a new path of extreme cold for everybody.  

Nor-easter now equivalent to a large hurricane

 A nor-easter is a vortex caused by Arctic air impacting stationary tropical air.  They don't have a category scale for it, since they don't do physics.  The three of us in the world can compare easily by using an energy calculation  This sucker is now all kinetic energy.

This shows the motion of the whole system, towards the coast.

This gives us the internal motion.  Since I have never seen a nor-easter this powerful, and this early in the season, I don't know what the impact will be.  I have to assume they haven't put the boats up yet.

Our world chart continues to dive.  All those little bumps at the beginning of the 2026 curve, were the heat blobs passing through.  No effect at all, right now, of a heat blob.

ps and the true reason for clange doomerism comes out

ps and again the problem of not having a scale for a nor-easter, or any storm.

These people are staying in their stick house.

Nor-Easter now rapidly approaching the coast

 The Arctic winds are collapsing, and the nor-easter is coming in like a slingshot round.

It is difficult to tell as it starts its rocket engines, but we will be able to tell in the morning.  This will not be the nice linear speed of hurricanes.  Looks like from NYC to Nova Scotia.  Perhaps you should buy useless plywood to feel better.  Take the valuables off the boat.

I'm going to 80% now.  That leaves the wiggle-room that nothing will happen.  Since nobody reads me, I feel happy that I am not creating an unnecessary panic.  

ps the news doesn't think this is much.

Baby reactors on Lake Ontariam officially a total loss

 

I said these things had no physics, and now, they are garbage.

Perhaps the company will say "We'll keep them as museum pieces.  All the tourists that can't visit Chernobyl will come here!"

A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

This adds to many failures that have no physics, and led me to the funny farm.  We have the extensive investigation of nuclear waste disposal in the worst rock in the world, up at Bruce.  This will be followed up by Bruce C on that same rock, but that's another company, wasting pension funds.

Then we had a couple of billion on the Niagara Tunnel to Nowhere.  A fine tunnel, built by ignoring all geotechnical research, with no place to put the water.  That was fun.

The press can't seize this because they don't know physics from a hole in the head.

Toto toilet - buy of the century

 

https://www.aquarina.ca/

There is nothing longer than my search for a new upstairs toilet.  This is an epic, suitable only for those that read.  The renovation upstairs has bothered me for 20 years.  For the toilet drain, they put in some tight turns, to be able to fit.  This resulted in clogging down the line, and endless plunging.  I became so paranoid, that I only did my #2 downstairs.

Now, this miracle became available.  I was so desperate, that I was looking at the fancy car-wash toilets with jet pump flushing.  Not only are they thousands of dollars, but moving the water fixture, and installing electricity in a tiled bathroom was beyond my pay grade.  There are stories of people paying thousands to have them installed.

I've read extensively about this toilet, and it is at the price of worse toilets on Costco.  I ordered it on Costco.ca.  Guess what!  Two toilet bowls smashed!  Turns out the supplier thought he could pack the bowls to withstand UPS gorillas.  Nope!  I read about this and they said go to a local supplier, this is more than a hundred dollars cheaper than Costco.  Standard 12 inch offset.  

Neat.  the local guy just has these toilets in light cardboard.  10 seconds with UPS!   But they have a toilet specialist delivering.  The truck was full of toilets.  Said if he did break one, all heck would break loose.  You need to buy a dolly that can go up stairs, the bowl is 70 pounds!

So, it works!  Has two flushes, and the big one is nuclear powered.  Tears things up and zooms past the bends in the pipes.  You need this!  I gave it my worst test, and now, I am a happy pooper.

Anyway, with diesel fuel, shipping from Mexico and stuff, expect this to double in price soon.

ps this is my UPS bird poop that got me so upset.

Just cry with me.

Nor-Easter appears stuck

 This is an interesting story of what happens when you ignore physics mechanics.  A hurricane is a moving heat engine that follows the hot water.  It eats the heat energy and tends to move at a steady pace, in a straight line.  That's how they 'predict' them.

This nor-easter is boundary effect of cold and hot air, just like the Jet Stream.  It's movements are dictated by the relative strength of the two big players.  

Here, the Arctic air appears very strong and will win this arm-wrestling match.

However, here, the flow is getting cut off.  If it weakens, then the storm heads straight to the East Coast at an incredible speed.  

The interesting part about the east coast is that all the coast forms are caused by giant 100 year storms.  You have the big beaches without trees, scoured rock, and offshore sand bars.  This could be such a storm.

ps my continual search for any sign of heat energy from the Nino zone continues to be disappointing.

ps I give a 50% chance it will come in like a cannon-shot.  No time for useless plywood.

Tracking the Nor-Easter

 This is pure mechanics.  Fun stuff.

The planar wind shear has created a vortex.  Note that it is now the same size as the phoney hurricane they were dooming about.  Although the winds are high, they are nothing to write home about.  That vortex will be the killer.

Right now, the Arctic air looks so powerful that everybody will just freeze on the beach.  The vortex could stay out to sea until it dies of old age.  We will be able to chalk this up to 'Good News From Physics'.  or not.

So far, absolutely no heat energy blasting out from Mr. Super.  We still wait.

ps just a little hook of the warm blob left in the Nino zone.  Next week, a big fall.

You can see the nice hook, but the 3d picture may change

Basic Physics - The Anatomy of a Nor-Easter

 

Nothing more feared than this, mainly because it is more common than a big hurricane.  This is all due to climate change, blah, blah, but that has no specific mechanism.  If you want more fun, go to physics.

The energy of a storm is due to temperature difference.  Climate change is supposed to be defined as a broad warming all over, if it is ever defined.  Does not increase storms.

Here it shows we are going to have a big difference, especially when that weather, which is freezing Toronto, moves down.  We have pure Arctic air up against pure tropical air.

We can see the very intense collision front.  The NE air is coming down very hard.  The tropical air just hangs around.  The name is due to the cold air, but it would be impossible without clange.  

The classic thing is to bring in the fishing boats.  This doesn't do much to sheltered harbours, I think.

Big Insider nat-gas play possible on prediction markets

 If I ever bet anything in my entire life, I would hit this.

A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is the market's expectation that a “Super El Niño” will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing heating demand for nat-gas. 

Natgas is in the dumps because of the Godzilla El Nino.  That does not exist, in the physics, heat energy sense.  It exists in the hearts and minds of climate marxists.  They are expecting a mechanism of warmth when the Arctic ice is closing in.

There are no Pacific heat energy plumes crossing North America.  All Atlantic plumes are being generated just from the Gulf heat.

You can only make money on this 20% play if you have a few million in mad money for the prediction markets.  Buy me a coffee if it works.

For my real readers who can't rub two looneys together, this would all be consumed in admin fees, etc.  I qualify this to the yazoo - blah blah, if you lose money, it's on your own stupidity, blah blah.  My record for this is absolutely zero, since it all depends on timing, and betting against the stupids, who I don't understand at all.

By December, even the stupids may doubt the marxists, so the prediction is 20% by January.

The big money is Europe.  North American futures are determined by the Gulf of Maine.

The US tends to have the big spikes when Texas freezes over.  Really hard to time.

El Nino Zone Absolutely Stagnant

 

Once the warm blobs drop out, it's going to drop.  But for now, flat as a board.  With other El Ninos, it always rises.  Being flat means it is about the seasonal drop, but a zone along the equator shouldn't really drop.  If you made a complicated difference chart, then it would appear to be rising.

The point is that Godzilla rises from the ocean.  It is not a basking shark.  There are no other temperature charts that are rising.  This monster is a fake.

Pickering B - Units 5 to 8 start the journey

 

You can search this article, it is quite detailed.  In my memoirs, which don't exist, I go through all my work for this station.  It is neat that they are putting in a deep-water intake, because the silt was my main problem in my Toronto Earthquake Scenario.  Just so you don't worry, that's at the one in 10,000 probability, which isn't even on their radar.

We had been looking at this forever.  The main problem was 'capping off the egg'.  The reactors and all the steam generators are in concrete containment silos that have all the inside room of 'Das Boot'.  So, you have to take the cap off the egg.  We gave up on it because you could never reseal the darn thing, but now they can.

When I first started working at the old company, they were building PickB.  I always talked to everybody, since I was such a fresh newbie.  The Picks are on the worst soil in the world.  Loose glacial crap with sand lenses, and everything but the kitchen soup.  They were thumping in huge piles.  I saw the pictures.  They would hit down one pile and another one would pop up, so they whapped them all again and again.

This is all good for earthquakes, except for one thing.  They were lower than Lake Ontariam.  So, they had to pump like the dickens.

Both plants were then poured on steel frames over the dirt.  Wonderful, but then I worked on Unit 7 towards the end, before they killed me 'by depression'.  The giant electrical transformers were tilting.  They obviously addressed this in the new work.

They drilled underneath, and found there was no dirt.  Again, all fixed up in the plans.  Only much later, as I was publishing the earthquake scenario did I realize what was happening.  My 3 readers know about this, so that's all I'm saying.

I give this almost no chance of making the big money that we need for the country.  Still, it is a good 'union 10%' thing that makes jobs at 10 time their worth.  Fine Canadianism.

Waiting for Super El Nino

 By now, you may suspect that the Super El Nino train is late to the station.  The forecast is very cold for Apsley, Ontario.

We are planning to close the cottage a week early.

Today, all the 'doom scrolling' media has given up on the endless 'El Nino will kill you' stuff.  

The most authoritative world temperature chart is diving.  The media is always looking for more obscure charts.  Remember that the concept of 'baking to death' was a broad brush.

No Pacific plumes are crossing North America.  For the whole scary thing, they just focus on temperature, when you need to focus on heat energy

I love this 'candy swirl' in the Arctic.  Very pretty, but it is a sign of no heat energy.

Start bringing out your winter clothes.  I'm wearing the lined pants.

There is no 'come down' on this for the weather people.  Just like last winter, they will just fade away, and come out for the stagnant, short summer.

Trumpfull Arch to be armed to the teeth

 

The wings are radars for aiming the boob-guns.  The head pops off to launch missiles.  

Too many males

 In the past, the biggest threat to society was prosperity and too many aimless males running around.  I am surprised this is going on in high school.  We'll soon have public school home-comings.

In all previous times, the solution was to go to war.  Give them something to do and cut down the numbers.  All the old guys, in charge, loved this.

These police pre-answered the obvious negative comment:  'Don't you have anything better to do?'  Neat.

When we visited Ethiopia a few years ago, there were too many aimless males, drunk on the local weed.  We needed guards.  I thought, oh god, something is going to happen, and it did.  

Since we are too civilized to kill off the males, we must live with increased drunken violence.  Sucks for women.  There are talks everywhere of bring back the draft, but that doesn't work.  You need to kill them off.

ps since we are Canada and we don't kill off males, we need something else.  We had the housing boom and all the louts up the street were into construction.  But the price of condos has gone down to 2 bucks, and all the towers still going up are zombies.  We need something new.  I'm hoping 'Greenhouses for Everything' takes off.

ps obviously Southern Alberta has too many louts.