The Pacific equatorial belt has a heat-valve mechanism that has turned our heat on and off over the years. Even with the great drift of satellite temperatures, you can't deny the peaks and valleys we have had since 2016. This mechanism involves the convection of rain, and other things, and I don't want to burn my brain on it, since there are no measurements. Nevertheless, we had a huge heating event last year that blew all my predictions to shreds. I was looking at this winter for last year, but we know the lakes didn't even freeze.
The only thing left from last year is the Atlantic heat. I don't think any mechanism works on that very short stretch of the equatorial belt.
The Atlantic equatorial belt is now diving, along with the others.
North Atlantic, and then the extreme polar Atlantic in the Greenland Gap. This has stopped the Arctic ice extent, but the ice volume keeps going up.
I am expecting a deep dive and this will allow the ice to extend beyond the usual. The UK will get less big storms and more clear cold.
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