Apparently both Trump and Iran have grown exhausted with the non-war. The flow through Hormuz has gone back to the original levels. Of course, Trump can screw this up again in an eye-blink.
But the prices are not going down until well after the trumpy-kick-out elections. The war sucked up all the reserves, and they have to be filled up again. Trump is trying to order the EU to drain their remaining reserves, because they can trust him.
For physics, it is fun to look at the 'oil stack'. You take one barrel of crude oil sucked out the earth. It is full of all sorts of junk, and has every type of oil you can think of. In terms of molecular weight, you can consider it to be 'crushed rock', with every type of lump from fine sand to large cobbles. That's my geotechnical engineering opinion.
If you are sieving this rock, you have a 'stack' of fine sand to gravel. You must carefully adjust your sales to the available product to make money. You can't have a big demand on sand.
With oil it is the same, but you can adjust the product stack a little. You need a demand for the heavy oil sludge, bottom distillate, your diesel, middle distillate, and the top distillates of gasoline and such. Trump has totally blown this balance, and there is no more shortage of crude oil, as such, but in the products.
Thus, you can't get diesel for love or money, if they are make more home fuel oil, or jet fuel. There is a very fine balance between gas and diesel. Thus, even Trump gave up his idea of banning diesel exports, because it would cut gasoline supply, and zoom up the prices. He has the problem that his moron supporters notice the price of both.
I think we are looking at a year to sort this out, but he has destroyed the balance on everything. Toilet paper must balance with lumber. And so on. Plus, we have our ice age coming in. We are happiest in Canada, because we are used to winter. 20 below to 40 below is nothing. The big change is in the freezing cross-over.
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