Sea level down a bit

 

The November sea level has gone down a bit on the most stable gauge in the world.  This sea level reflects the world temperature, since it is equivalent to a thermometer up the butt.  It's amazing that they push a rise in sea level over the last hundred years of about 20 cm.

I'm not saying that's total and complete garbage, but the phillies have the great advantage over us physies that they can pick and choose what evidence they present.  The sacred law of the physies is to 'sum all the forces', and not ignore things.  That's why we lose every debate.

Happy New Year, and celebrate the heat energy

 I try not to talk too much about temperatures, because that is a fairly meaningless term with physics.  Best to be 'left' to the philosophers, or phillies.  We are warm because the Atlantic has a heck of a lot more heat energy than usual this time of year.

Normally, hurricanes tap off a lot of heat energy, but none of those this year.  The lack of hurricanes is because of clange.  :)  

Instead of hurricanes, the Atlantic belt is throwing us tropical plumes.  Normally, we are practically done with the Atlantic by now, but look at the heat in the Gulf!  All the heat looks to last another month.

The West is the 'End of Heat' which would make a good apocalypse movie.  They are living on 'latitude sun energy' which is almost nothing.  

The heat anomaly is an incredible picture.  There's no heat in the Pacific, and we are roasting.  Sooner or later we're out of Atlantic gas.  I don't know when.

ps.  no heat in the west is clange.

Don't Look UP - cold and snow very close

 

The black is coming down upon us.  If you look up, your nose will freeze.  This continues to slowly push all before it.

This is more significant than a single clairslide to Texas.  It is now repelling all the weak plumes knocking on the door.  It's just a question on the strength of the tropical plume from the Gulf.

From the weather forecast, it looks like this thing will blow everything away, and we'll get -10 for Toronto.  This is as cold as you can get with the lake still pouring out heat energy.  If they go to minimum (or freeze), then we'll get -30 in the city, and -40 for Huntsville.  This was standard 70's stuff.

ps.  this is the anomaly map.

Descending air mass now has a core of -50

 

Night-time minimums offer the best picture because they are now into the long nights.

This air mass is moving very slowly, and may freeze the US East.  Then natgas prices will go up.  We are being saved by Hudson Bay, which has been very warm and is now finally freezing up.  This is just weather, since it is cold.

ps.  the one in Europe is building a core, as well.

ps.

pps.  if the core moves down, then this is a 'hybrid' of clairslide, and stagnant blob.

Texas to finally ship frack waste out of state

 Reference

Permian oil operators are already looking for ways to reduce wastewater injections after the oil regulator began imposing limits. Solutions include recycling the wastewater or trucking it elsewhere.

"If they're not able to do that, they may have no other choice but to shut these wells and choke production," said Thomas Jacob, vice president of oilfield services research for consultancy Rystad, adding that halting production was a last resort.

This was no minor earthquake.  It had a local intensity of 5, which is chimney damage.

The felt area has the shape and direction of those earthquakes in Oklahoma.

ps.  Dear Lying Texas.  You've lied about this water for a long time.  If you want to save your industry, then send me a huge cheque.  :)

Large stagnant air masses freeze everybody

 We now have two large stagnant air masses freezing a lot of people.

I've always asked myself questions that nobody else cared about.  One was 'Why is the coldest day shifted to January, instead of Dec 21, when the sun energy is lowest?'  The answer is:  residual heat from large bodies of water.

The season variation of solar input is 10 or 1000 times greater than any sunspot variation.  It should be a huge, ridiculous variation, but we have these tropical plumes, thank god.  Except this year.

This just formed slowly.  It wasn't a rapid 'clairslide' which has dominated earlier times.  Once settled in, it repels weak plumes.  The air inside is still.  This is true 'default' weather, which happens when there are no ocean breezes.  The other extreme is what we had on June 21, in the mountain basins, without breezes --- super hot!

The same thing is happening in Europe.  It is probably a consequence of little energy in the plumes due to the cold water at the equator.  The classic result of our ice cycle.

I won't even mention the 'official' explanation for the cold.  They have dragged out polar vortex fairies again....

ps.  The standard answer is:  "Carbon warming brings extreme weather, hot and cold."  PERIOD.  This is philosophy, or philosophical 'science'.  Yeah, we all love it.  If you ask for the mechanism, as in 'why?', you get dangerously close to physics.

Of course, I am in total agreement with the philosophy.  I am a 'believer'.  Clange is real!

ps.  Yeah, the kids are finally moving out to their own house.  We have liftoff!

Merry Mucky Christmas

 The global weather is just a big muck.

The plumes look like a kicked hornet's nest.  

The whole North Atlantic is warmer than usual.

But the equatorial belts are cold, and under attack from the south polar regions.

So, very confused.  This usually means a big pattern change, and we'll have to wait.

I had a nice Christmas, with a small gathering.  Now I have a sinus cold.  blah.

Clipper hits Toronto

 

A clipper is peanut butter on toast.  The cold air is stuck on top of the descending tropical plume, and the whole thing falls off the table.  For Toronto, the warm air always goes beneath us, and the cold air hits.  A clipper is fast and done.

In Europe, they have the cold blob.  The physics is completely different.  This hangs around for a while, but it may be stopping and not hit the western section.

Classic clipper for Toronto, snowball for Europe

 

We are getting a classic Alberta clipper.  I saw these all the time when I first discovered these maps.  A clipper is mixed with cold on the north, and a Pacific plume on the south.  It's the main type of cold air incursion for Toronto.  The big cold blobs, or air glaciers, are an entirely new thing.

A big clairslide is now hitting Europe.

And it is showing as a big ball in the temp anomaly map.

Just in time for the Christmas covid-cold to hit.

ps.  the weather people are on this, but I like doing mechanisms.

Lots of snow at the boundary between the tropical plume and the cold air that it is dragging.  The key diagnostic is the diagonal trend.

Europe air glacier is a doozy

 

Using 'air glacier' gets more hits than clairslide.  You can see it in the MIMIC, but the temperature anomaly nails it home.  Big headlines tomorrow!

ps.  meanwhile, the NA clairslide pushed out all the warm air, but now it is mucky.

Air glacier closes up for North America, new one for Europe

 

This air blob or clairslide, or air glacier has run out of cold fuel.  The warm plumes are eating at it.  We'll still get some cold weather, but not that much.

It did a fairly good job, but not that heavy.

Now, there is a weak one heading for Europe.

We'll see what that does.

Massive cold air blob

 

This has turned out to be a powerful 'clairslide', which is a 'landslide' of very cold air, and acts like an independent entity. 

It's big enough to actually split on the Great Lakes.  At this time of year, no clairslide can cross those lakes, because they have too much heat energy.  However, that heat is extracted and turned into lake-effect snow.

Because it has drained all the cold air for the time being, the rest of the world is free to be warm, and fully in the embrace of clange.

You can see that Europe is happy.

The Great Salvation

 This is written in code, so the inquisition doesn't come.  It's about that 'newthing' that everybody is flapping about.  In the place where it started, it is reported that the hospitals are emptying.  Yeah!

The newthing particle can now be recognized as a salvation that immunizes all the hold-outs and has only mild symptoms.  This is what all airborne specks eventually evolve to, since there is no advantage in killing people.  They shed the weight that kills, and fly better.  One person in a giant party, and everybody picks it up through the eyes.

I can't say any more.  nudge nudge, wink wink.

ps.  when you see something miraculous like this, that it evolves to salvation, you must realize that all these things generally do that, or we wouldn't be here to lip-flap over it.

Solar cycle looks good to me

 Solar energy flux, or the energy hitting the Earth varies about 0.1% during a normal cycle.  Just my reading of the physics makes me think that the Sun or orbital cycles have no effect on anything.  The energy turnover with the oceans is probably a 1000 times more than any other influence.  That's important to me, since I say that the tail never wags the dog.  However, the phillies can argue it ten ways to Sunday.

This is the final coffin in the nail for the sunspotters.  We're going up again for a perfectly normal cycle.  We have no physics for the famous minimum that happened in the middle of the Little Ice Age.  It was only noticed that the sunspots were off because they had just invented telescopes.  Might have happened before and we know nothing about the solar flux at that time.  I'll go with ocean currents.  If we could do some physics then we would know.  Now, we're just lip flapping.

Cold air loses to Gulf plume

 

It's no longer a clairslide, it has lost to the heat.  It was only backed up with -40.  We'll wait for the next one.

ps.  I had to put that meaningless catch phrase on top to ward off evil.  Like a string of garlic.

pps.  the cold air now appears to be winning.

Cold blob is a monster

 I call these clairslides, because they act like cold air landslides.  I used to call them air glaciers because of their shape, but they move too fast.

Straight from Alaska, and it's going under the Great Lakes to hit us.

The white is sub-zero F.  I can't get a current map of Canada.  

The Alaska shot shows the clarity of the thing.  Normally, 'there can only be one', but there are some babies.

One is going down Greenland and will curve and hit the UK.  The other is coming down from Sweden and should make Germany rethink nuclear power.  :)

ps.  somewhat related to cold, note that the newcovid only gets into the upper air tracts and not the lungs, so it really is a common cold.  The virus is too busy trying to reproduce before the antibodies get it.  So, go to a Christmas party and breathe in the vaccine.  :)  Of course, that's as stupid as a chickenpox party, which is also a great idea, but stupid for the powers.

pps.  oh poohey, I've been deactivated again.

Harold Asmis

1 hour ago

CONTENT DEACTIVATED I would still wait a day before you press the panic button. This variant is 'super airborne', and that means it goes through the eyes, and gets through masks if you shout. The latest info shows it doesn't reach the lungs, because it's so eager to latch on a reproduce. The next variant will spread even faster and be even less lethal. Are we approaching the common cold? That's because there is no evolutionary pressure to kill people faster. Ok, I retract, and we'll go with the power-doctors to fight this with every restriction we got. They need the money, and we'll fight the next one, too. « less

 3

REPLY TO @HAROLD ASMIS:

but I got a few likes in before the hammer hit.

more:  they used to be free to say that all the ICU patients are anti-vaxxers.  Now they don't.

Long-term weather forecasting may need to take ocean currents into account

 Reference

This is interesting, but very confusing in the logic.  They don't really mention carbon at all, but the phillies can extract what they want out of it, because it is so long and confusing.

However, sunspot guy may be happy because they go into solar flux changes.  And they like ocean currents.  

With this, we can say that the past warm cycle makes it more likely that we are going into a new Little Ice Age.  But I don't think this is sufficient.  Anyway, I like anything that has to do with ocean currents.  :)

ps.  this article just went with confusion to save themselves from the Phillie Inquisition, others have put on a disclaimer -'Although all past cycles were natural forces, this one is human-caused.'.  Period.

The New Blog

 I see that the full inquisition is out now.  They lump everything they don't like all together, and call it 'digital hate'.  They have a group who is pointing blasphemers out to Mr. Googs.  

Well, this blog is none of that.  We will never go against group-think.  All we are doing is formulating long-term weather forecasts, longer than the usual week.  This has nothing to do with climate forecasting, which used to be considered impossible, but is now an every-day thing.

The resolution with physics is quite coarse, as opposed to methods of faith, which are so precise, you can sharpen your pencil on them.  My earthquake forecast is 'high, medium, or low'.  The weather forecast is 'warm or cold'.  I can't go to the nearest degree.

For now, the earthquake forecast is 'high' for the middle states that accept eastern frack water for disposal.  The earthquakes are starting now, but will getting into their stride once the mountains thaw out.

The weather forecast for the next 20 years is 'cold'.  Without ocean breezes, we will have some very hot zones in the summer, and this will fuel the faith for years.  They will be balanced by extreme cold, but some people only publish stories about heat.  

I used to call those of the faith a derogatory term, which must be upsetting to them if they ever read physics.  I shall now call them 'phillies' for philosophers, and that's a nice term related to 'speed' and 'athleticism'.

Phillies believe in group-think, or consensus, and debating things to find 'truth'.  They believe that scientific observations can immediately lead to scientific projections without the need of the Scientific Method.  As long as the best debating techniques are used, which used to be called 'logical fallacies'.  Everything related to science can be argued out in court.

Clairslide becomes 'The blob that ate New York'

 

This is a big bear, now.  It can't cross the Great Lakes but it's going under to hit the eastern states.  Natgas will soar for sure.

Texas will get a bit chilly.  

ps.  a clairslide is a blob of cold, clear air that acts as a giant landslide.  They form in the north, and slide all the way down to Texas.  They are noted by being totally clear with a curved front on the mimic chart.

Alaska clairslide starts

 This is very early in the game and uncertainties abound.

We have the -40's there, bordering on -50.  Zoom in on this and you'll see the classic clairslide lobate pattern forming.  I don't know if it can cut through the mess, perhaps a solid -50 would be best, but there is a plume pushing it out.  You can only get one really big clairslide at a time because it empties the whole Arctic.  

The first hint of strength will come from Edmonton when they get -50 and they show all the photos of clothes freezing on the line.  It will end with -20 in Texas, if it goes.  So, there's a 10% chance that natgas prices will zoom.

If that plume rides down at 45 degrees, then it is a classic Alberta clipper.

ps.  it has hit Edmonton with about -20.  Nothing big yet.  Yellowknife is going to -40.

pps.  it's fighting a rising Gulf plume, but still going.

Arctic not at 40 below yet

 

These are the min temps which are best for physics.  Below, we have the temp anomaly, which shows what is colder than average.

By now, most of the Arctic should have been at 40 below, instead of just 30.  The tropical plumes are still pushing up north.

The clairslides are setting up in Alaska, but the plumes dominate right now, although they are weakening.  We should get a good cold blob by the end of the year.

NOAA shows that world temperatures are flat

 

The NOAA world temps are in, and they are obscured as usual.  I haven't heard anything from their PR department.  They probably don't care, it's nasa that has everything to lose.

So, we'll shut down and wait until the end of the year.  That has a double effect in that nasa has to use 202i in their plot, and it won't be pretty.  Happy New Year!

ps.  my whole life I have engineered solutions that are politically unacceptable.  Sometimes they went through and sometimes they didn't.  I do know that all the 'solutions' that were totally politically acceptable never worked.  That's life.

Covid evolves to the end of the road - Part 4

 

Well, here it is.  The 'powers that be', are wallowing in too much of their own importance.  We need to think this out with physics.

The covid virus has evolved in response to our measures against it.  It has proven to be as fast as any other pandemic.  However, this is an airborne bug, and is different from something like Ebola.  That virus spreads in conditions of total misery, and has no push to shed it's payload.  Thus, it kills nearly instantly.

Covid can only be successful if it reproduces, and gets around the stupid masks.  For every molecule it picks up, it has to shed something or it can't fly.  Thus, it follows the trend of being more and more contagious, and less lethal.  In other words, the common cold.

You will ask why we have never made a vaccine for the common cold.  The answer is that the virus is the vaccine.  With omicron, the greatest stupidity is extra booster shots.  Just let the virus go.  

This was said before, with the first variant, but it was too deadly.  The virus will evolve to be totally harmless, and then descend into the noise of all the other past viruses.  There are millions of these attacking us every day, and we fight them off.

The omicron virus is now the vaccine.  If we fight it, then we'll just get a more contagious variant that is more harmless.  A 'Grand Stupidity'.  

I'm not saying anything obvious, like 'don't get the booster'.  That is war against the powerful, and I don't do that, and nobody reads me.  But this is the conclusion from physics, and it will be ignored.  I'm happy with that.

The End.

ps.  omicron took some cold virus stuff.  This will help it resist oxygen damage and thus, a longer flight time.  The next variant will take up more oxygen protection, and more attachment points.  Fluffy, and hardened makes for a happy virus.

pps.

THE VIRUS IS THE VACCINE

No clairslides for a while

 

This is a familiar messy pattern.  The plumes are leaking all over the Arctic and stopping those huge masses of cold, clear air, that I call clairslides.  A month or two ago, we were getting lots of them.

This messy warmth hits poor pittin and his love of invasion.  If there's no clairslide hitting Europe and forcing them to burn coal, they might forget they are dependent on him for natgas.  Then Germany can posture as much as anybody.

Also, my 'prediction' on natgas prices in the US is a total washout.  Soooorry.

This pattern can keep going for a while, but the equatorial belts run out of heat energy.  We should have the cold back in January.

ps.  billions of dollars are now flooding into climate groups, and this money will be used to destroy physics.  I'm just limiting my discussions to the current weather, and will make no projections, mainly because I'm always wrong.  The interesting thing in the future is watching them shout away at the cold, not that I'm saying anything.

Covid evolves to the end of the road - Part 3

 

So, we have the first covid variant, fresh out of the stable.  It has a lot of animal payload which will kill you.  Then everybody wears masks.  Masks have proven useless for all pandemics, but it's what doctors know.  A mask is only useful in surgery for a few hours, under controlled conditions, to stop the surgeon from sending spit balls into the patient.

Masks on a large scale are useless.  Everybody talks louder, and the masks get saturated.  Nobody will wear a mask at a party, and so, there was a lot of 'illegal' activity.  Nothing is measured, so the doctors can say that things would have been worse without a mask mandate.  Just like nasa will always say the ozone hole would have been bigger, no matter how big the stupid thing gets.

Everybody wearing masks is a huge change of environmental conditions.  This kicks in evolution, to try to get around it.  Suddenly, the first variant is dead, and we go onto new variants.  These avoid the masks and go straight for the eyes, flying through the air.

A molecular shift, or a choice of a formerly obscure variant is the same thing.  Again, if we were engineering, we would go for more attachment points, more reproduction, and longer flight times.  This requires more oxygen protection.

Oxygen hits that virus like little bombs.  Incoming O2 blows up a spike or creates a big crater.  A few hits and the virus is dead.  We need more gob, or more sacrificial molecules on the surface.  However, any extra weight reduces the flight distance.  We are quite constrained.

There is a tremendous advantage to shedding some of the animal proteins.  That way, we have it lighter, more contagious, and more reproduction.  That animal payload does nothing.

-- to be continued

Termination - I write these on the fly, solving  as a I go.  This is heading to a conclusion that I don't want to make obvious to the doctors and such.  So, I'm stopping here.

New Arctic ice volume charts

 I was shattered by the Great Danish Capitulation to the invading gretas.  Their problem was that they made their charts too clear, and attracted the attention of the hockeystick slasher.  

Anybody left alive who shows relevant charts must make them obscure enough that the philosophers can't understand them.  So, I have switched charts.

This chart still shows our current ice volume is charging up.  The rate of increase is as important as the actual position, which is dependent on previous years.

This chart might be better.

This year is entering the main band.  It takes a while for the ice to accumulate, and that's why I am more interested in the rate.  If they plotted rate, then it would be too obvious to the slashers.  

This fall and early winter aren't really living up to my hype.  There's a lot of residual heat left in the equatorial belts, and we're getting it all.  This heat energy will run out, and then we'll see something.

Next week we'll see the new NOAA results for world temps.  They make that incredibly obscure, and you have to 'make' your own chart.  If it looks bad, they don't say anything, if it's good, their PR department goes to town.  Nasa only uses the total year chart, and this year might not be good for them.  Then they can just leave that point out.