No details yet, but it seems to be a deep normal, which is always underrated by the busgus. Other sensors put it at 6. This is consistent with the high rate we've seen every since oil and gas went up. Although it has probably knocked things down, it is nothing if this were a shallow thrust that I expect soon. It's good to be right all the time. :)
ps. I was only expecting this by the end of the year. Maybe we'll still get another one. Although I have said that a 6 will be a 'closer', it has to be a shallow thrust under OK city, or the oil tanks. This one will do nothing, and fresh water injection will go on at a furious rate. A deep normal earthquake has the least PGV for the magnitude.
pps. a heck of a lot of aftershocks for this quake. Maybe the next 6 will come sooner than I expect. Normally, I expect things to calm down quickly.
more notes. For some reason the busgus is keeping it at 5..6, even though there are a huge number of seismometers going up to 6.1. There is a political reason for not breaking the 5.6 ceiling, because that would make it the biggest yet, and they've got everybody believing that the earthquakes are going down.
Saturday, September 3, 2016
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Google Citizen Scientists
Here's an idea that I pitched to Google. Their president hasn't responded in an hour, so I throw it out to the world. Like everybody else, you can take credit for it and make money.
A long time ago, we had Gentlemen Scientists (very sexist). These were rich people like Sir Isaac Newton, who didn't have to grub for a living. The point is that they were alone in their richly appointed studies. They could invent and change the world. Then we had the steampunk era where individual inventors could come up with a new engine (or is that fiction?).
For the last hundred years or so, we only had big institutions who did all the science. Very boring, they had to fill out reams of paper to do anything. They just do incrementals. The last thing we had from those places was global warming. But why do these big places have an advantage? They had big libraries, subscriptions to the pay wall, and lots of computing power, plus throw in a few nuclear reactors.
That's all changing. No more giant mausoleums of paper. No more paywall (almost). Google has changed all that. The only keeping individuals out is computing power. My idea was to set up something to give free computing power to qualified people (like me) and remove the last barrier. I can publish in the open journals.
I have a bee in the bonnet about stupid engineers and seismic analysis. Obviously, if you are an insider, you cannot rock the boat. But I run some big models to show them they are stupid. This is something for grumpy retired scientists.
This could be big for them and would advertise their compute power. I'll give them another 10 minutes and then go to Amazon. :)
ps. I haven't heard from anybody. I guess that the Chinese will take over bland institutional science just they took over industry that hadn't changed in 30 years. Good for them!
A long time ago, we had Gentlemen Scientists (very sexist). These were rich people like Sir Isaac Newton, who didn't have to grub for a living. The point is that they were alone in their richly appointed studies. They could invent and change the world. Then we had the steampunk era where individual inventors could come up with a new engine (or is that fiction?).
For the last hundred years or so, we only had big institutions who did all the science. Very boring, they had to fill out reams of paper to do anything. They just do incrementals. The last thing we had from those places was global warming. But why do these big places have an advantage? They had big libraries, subscriptions to the pay wall, and lots of computing power, plus throw in a few nuclear reactors.
That's all changing. No more giant mausoleums of paper. No more paywall (almost). Google has changed all that. The only keeping individuals out is computing power. My idea was to set up something to give free computing power to qualified people (like me) and remove the last barrier. I can publish in the open journals.
I have a bee in the bonnet about stupid engineers and seismic analysis. Obviously, if you are an insider, you cannot rock the boat. But I run some big models to show them they are stupid. This is something for grumpy retired scientists.
This could be big for them and would advertise their compute power. I'll give them another 10 minutes and then go to Amazon. :)
ps. I haven't heard from anybody. I guess that the Chinese will take over bland institutional science just they took over industry that hadn't changed in 30 years. Good for them!
The earthquake that will destroy Toronto - Rational Discussion
This is only for those who wish to be rational, as I am putting on my engineer cap, which I find is mostly boring. I did this piece in the style of all those other ridiculous pieces, but it all had good science in it. The most difficult thing is discussing odds or probabilities. Even worse, there is an uncertainty band on those odds. I put everything in PGV as the chance per year, as my best estimate
All the big disasters are a PGV over the seismic capacity of the general building stock, at about 1 in 500 per year. That's because nobody builds for that. Our building code goes for that level, but just to avoid total pancaking. The interior fixtures are never covered, nor does does anybody care about functionality.
I have found that the 40 year old assumptions about sinusoidal motions have been creating horrible situations. Chile gave us a hint of that, but it was ignored. Earthquakes such as Italy don't teach us anything, because their Maffie concrete capacity is about 5 cm/s.
Toronto completely ignores earthquake risk, yet their odds of a disaster are the same as anywhere else because the preparation is non-existent. Sure, California seismic hazard is higher in terms of PGV, but so is their capacity. Earthquakes hit the ignorant pretty hard, and most cities are extremely ignorant.
I have a thing about weird condos, and crammed subdivisions. The condos will crack at their internal boundaries, and the tract housing will be Dresden firestorms. They always assume a rapid fire department response. Nope.
The Pickering nuclear plant will release radioactive steam with this earthquake. It might give everybody a chest x-ray, but that's about it. Candu reactors have lots of internal water, lots of good concrete, and thermosyphoning. Nevertheless, the reactors won't restart for weeks, and we'll have no gas and no electricity in the winter. Perhaps there are consequences. :)
ps. the odds are a 6 or 7 every 500 years. OK has shown us that 6's and 7's are practically bedmates.
All the big disasters are a PGV over the seismic capacity of the general building stock, at about 1 in 500 per year. That's because nobody builds for that. Our building code goes for that level, but just to avoid total pancaking. The interior fixtures are never covered, nor does does anybody care about functionality.
I have found that the 40 year old assumptions about sinusoidal motions have been creating horrible situations. Chile gave us a hint of that, but it was ignored. Earthquakes such as Italy don't teach us anything, because their Maffie concrete capacity is about 5 cm/s.
Toronto completely ignores earthquake risk, yet their odds of a disaster are the same as anywhere else because the preparation is non-existent. Sure, California seismic hazard is higher in terms of PGV, but so is their capacity. Earthquakes hit the ignorant pretty hard, and most cities are extremely ignorant.
I have a thing about weird condos, and crammed subdivisions. The condos will crack at their internal boundaries, and the tract housing will be Dresden firestorms. They always assume a rapid fire department response. Nope.
The Pickering nuclear plant will release radioactive steam with this earthquake. It might give everybody a chest x-ray, but that's about it. Candu reactors have lots of internal water, lots of good concrete, and thermosyphoning. Nevertheless, the reactors won't restart for weeks, and we'll have no gas and no electricity in the winter. Perhaps there are consequences. :)
ps. the odds are a 6 or 7 every 500 years. OK has shown us that 6's and 7's are practically bedmates.
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