In a rock mechanics testing lab, you compress rocks to failure. You can look at the detailed mechanisms of fault movement. No seismologist does this.
The neat thing is that 'no fault is an island'. You always need a dual, perpendicular mechanism for large fault movements. I was all about this for the Oklahoma earthquakes. The California usgus doesn't need this, because their faults are driven by sliding plate tectonics, and they think everybody is the same.
If an isolated extension fault is opening up, then at at least one boundary must slide. Most likely we will see two. Right now, the upper section is sliding, and if we had better seismometer coverage, we would see the sliding mechanism.
So, the mechanism of this, is that there has been some fluid motion that started the extension fault, and this has moved enough to active a release srike-slip fault. I now upgrade the chance of an M7 to one in 50. Every building in Santorini would be leveled for this, but it is only a chance, not much above the random chance of it happening anywhere in the region.
The lesson for these beautiful towns is to have an underground shelter, rather than total evacuation, which could be a long time.
ps. asked qwen ai, for a list of the islands damaged by earthquakes
Greece is located in a seismically active region, and many of its islands have experienced significant earthquake damage over the past century. Below is a list of Greek islands that have been affected by earthquakes in the last 100 years, along with some notable events:
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### **1. Crete**
- **2021**: A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck near Heraklion, causing damage to buildings and infrastructure.
- **1926**: A major earthquake caused widespread destruction on the island.
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### **2. Rhodes**
- **2008**: A magnitude 6.5 earthquake hit near Rhodes, causing structural damage and injuries.
- **1926**: A significant earthquake damaged parts of the island.
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### **3. Kos**
- **2017**: A magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck near Kos, causing fatalities, injuries, and damage to buildings, including historical sites like the Castle of the Knights.
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### **4. Samos**
- **2020**: A magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred near Samos, resulting in fatalities, injuries, and significant damage to buildings. The earthquake also caused a small tsunami that affected the Turkish coast.
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### **5. Lefkada**
- **2015**: A magnitude 6.4 earthquake caused damage to buildings and infrastructure on the island.
- **2003**: A magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck, damaging homes and injuring residents.
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### **6. Zakynthos (Zante)**
- **1953**: One of the most devastating earthquakes in Greek history struck the Ionian Islands, including Zakynthos. The quake destroyed much of the island's infrastructure and led to a large-scale rebuilding effort.
- **2018**: A magnitude 6.8 earthquake caused minor damage and triggered a small tsunami.
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### **7. Kefalonia**
- **1953**: The same earthquake that devastated Zakynthos also severely impacted Kefalonia, destroying most of the island's buildings.
- **2014**: A series of earthquakes, including a magnitude 6.0 event, caused damage to homes and infrastructure.
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### **8. Lesbos**
- **2017**: A magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck near Lesbos, causing damage to buildings and injuring several people.
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### **9. Chios**
- **1949**: A significant earthquake caused damage across the island.
- **2020**: The same earthquake that affected Samos was felt strongly on Chios, causing damage to buildings.
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### **10. Corfu**
- **1953**: The Ionian earthquake also affected Corfu, though the damage was less severe compared to Zakynthos and Kefalonia.
- **2003**: A magnitude 5.0 earthquake caused minor damage.
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### **11. Santorini**
- **1956**: A major earthquake caused significant damage to the island, leading to evacuations and reconstruction efforts.
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### **12. Kythira**
- **2006**: A magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck near Kythira, causing damage to buildings and triggering landslides.
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### **13. Milos**
- **1953**: The Ionian earthquake caused minor damage on Milos.
- **2018**: A magnitude 5.0 earthquake was felt on the island, causing limited damage.
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### **14. Amorgos**
- **1956**: A magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck near Amorgos, causing damage and triggering a tsunami.
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### **15. Patmos**
- **1953**: The Ionian earthquake caused minor damage on Patmos.
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### **16. Icaria**
- **1953**: The Ionian earthquake caused minor damage on Icaria.
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### **17. Symi**
- **2008**: The earthquake that affected Rhodes also caused damage on Symi.
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This list highlights the seismic activity affecting Greek islands over the past century. Earthquakes remain a recurring natural hazard in the region due to Greece's location along tectonic plate boundaries.
**Note**: While this list includes major events, smaller earthquakes may have occurred that are not documented here.
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