I don't know what I was thinking. I thought that a hint of running out would zoom up the price, but the prices have no physics. These are 30 day futures, and everything is a dream.
On Thursday, the EIA puts out the storage report from the week before. There have been big price panics on this report, but I don't know why. It doesn't show anything. They say it's above or below estimate, but that estimate is just last year's curve, or the 5 year average.
Somebody must know what happens when the draw goes well below the average, which will show up this week. I don't know, since the futures prices must be linked to actual supply somehow. That means somebody keeps track of true supply, so you have something to sell at the end of 30 days.
Or, it could be just a big puffy cloud. Who knows?
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