You can read that this releases all contracts. It is used for war. With all contracts suspended, we can stop all trade for a while. We can then sort this out.
Number one is that all the car makers will have to suspend operations and lay everyone off, like a big strike in one country or another. All electricity, oil and gas exports have to be stopped for new contracts.
I would not go there for a visit. Canada now has to decide whether to tack on an export tax to get smithy all pissy. Wonder what she promised trumpy to only get 10%. Yuck!
This will finally shake the tree for Canada housing, as everybody gets laid off. We're looking at one heck of a recession, bigger than covid. Can the feds cough up the money to everyone? Interesting times.
So, my genius Chinese AI has this to say.
2/2
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Qwen2.5-Max
4:03 pm
The imposition of a 25% tariff by the United States on all goods imported from Canada would have significant economic, political, and social impacts. Below is an analysis of the potential consequences across various sectors:
1. Economic Impacts
a. Trade Disruption
Reduced Exports : Canada relies heavily on exports to the U.S., which accounts for approximately 75% of its total exports . A 25% tariff would make Canadian goods significantly more expensive for U.S. buyers, leading to a sharp decline in exports.
Supply Chain Disruptions : Many industries, such as automotive, energy, and agriculture, are deeply integrated into North American supply chains. Tariffs could disrupt these chains, increasing costs and reducing efficiency.
b. Sector-Specific Effects
Automotive Industry : The auto sector is highly integrated between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Tariffs would increase production costs, reduce competitiveness, and potentially lead to job losses in Canada's manufacturing hubs.
Energy Sector : Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the U.S. Tariffs could reduce demand for Canadian energy products, impacting Alberta and other energy-producing provinces.
Agriculture and Agri-Food : Products like wheat, canola, pork, and beef could face reduced access to U.S. markets, harming farmers and rural economies.
c. Currency and Inflation
Currency Depreciation : The Canadian dollar (CAD) might weaken against the U.S. dollar (USD) as investors react to reduced trade flows and economic uncertainty.
Inflationary Pressures : Higher import costs for U.S. goods (due to retaliatory tariffs or reduced competition) could lead to inflation in Canada, affecting consumer prices.
d. GDP Growth
Slower Economic Growth : Reduced exports and disrupted supply chains would likely slow Canada's GDP growth. Estimates suggest that a broad-based tariff could shave off several percentage points from annual GDP growth.
2. Political Impacts
a. Strained Canada-U.S. Relations
The tariff would strain diplomatic relations between Canada and the U.S., potentially leading to retaliatory measures by Canada.
It could also undermine trust in the U.S.-Canada partnership, particularly within frameworks like the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .
b. Domestic Political Pressure
The Canadian government would face pressure to respond decisively to protect domestic industries and jobs. This could include implementing retaliatory tariffs, subsidies, or other support measures.
Provincial governments, especially in trade-dependent regions like Ontario and Alberta, might demand federal intervention to mitigate the economic fallout.
c. Shift Toward Diversification
The tariff could accelerate Canada's efforts to diversify its trade relationships, focusing more on Europe, Asia, and other regions. However, this process would take time and might not fully offset losses from reduced U.S. trade.
3. Social Impacts
a. Job Losses
Industries reliant on exports to the U.S. could experience significant layoffs, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and energy sectors.
Unemployment spikes in certain regions could exacerbate regional economic disparities.
b. Consumer Impact
Canadians could face higher prices for goods due to both direct tariffs on U.S. imports and indirect effects on domestic production costs.
Lower-income households would be disproportionately affected by rising living costs.
c. Public Sentiment
The tariff could fuel anti-U.S. sentiment among Canadians, particularly if perceived as unfair or protectionist.
There may also be increased calls for greater economic self-sufficiency and industrial policy reforms.
4. Retaliatory Measures by Canada
Canada would likely respond with its own tariffs on U.S. goods, targeting politically sensitive industries such as:
Agriculture (e.g., dairy, poultry)
Manufacturing (e.g., steel, aluminum)
Consumer goods
These retaliatory measures could escalate into a trade war, further damaging bilateral relations and global trade stability.
5. Long-Term Structural Changes
a. Supply Chain Reconfiguration
Canadian businesses might seek to reorient their supply chains away from the U.S., exploring opportunities in Europe, Asia, or domestically.
Investment in automation and local production could increase to reduce reliance on cross-border trade.
b. Strengthening Trade Agreements
Canada might prioritize strengthening ties with other trading partners through agreements like the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the EU or the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) .
c. Industrial Policy
The Canadian government might adopt more aggressive industrial policies to support key sectors, including subsidies, tax incentives, and investment in innovation.
6. Global Implications
Impact on Global Trade : A U.S.-Canada trade conflict could destabilize global trade systems, undermining confidence in multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Geopolitical Shifts : Other countries might view the tariff as a sign of U.S. protectionism, prompting them to strengthen alliances with Canada or pursue alternative trade partnerships.
Conclusion
A 25% tariff on all Canadian goods by the U.S. would have profound and far-reaching consequences for Canada's economy, society, and international relations. While Canada has tools to mitigate some impacts—such as diversifying trade partners and implementing retaliatory measures—the overall effect would likely be negative, with slower economic growth, job losses, and heightened geopolitical tensions. The situation underscores the importance of maintaining open and cooperative trade relationships between Canada and the U.S.
Final Answer:
Significant economic slowdown, job losses, strained Canada-U.S. relations, and long-term structural changes in trade and industry.
ps. this is poots invasion of Ukraine. With tyrants, the staff lies to them, to keep their heads. poots was convinced they just had to show up at the door, and the ukies would run and hide. This is the same now with trymp. There is no fentanyl crossing the border, he is convinced he just has to glare, and will we roll on our bellies. Maybe smitty, but not the rest of us.
