Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Energy vs. Surface Weather Forecast

 All our conventional weather forecasts are mostly based on surface conditions such as wind, pressure, temperature, etc.  However, our atmosphere is 3d and it is better physics to forecast, based on energy flow.



This is a moving chart of the current wind speeds.  If that is all you see then its a high pressure zone pushing out low pressure.  Lots of action at the boundary.

Tne Mimic, which is a close proxy for heat energy, looks different.


Here you see a powerful clipper smashing into a weak warmth coming up from the Gulf.  Whether you like this or that is a matter of philosophy.  However, the hypothesis is that the energy system gives a more accurate 5 day forecast, and is the only way to do 6 month forecasts.  If you are totally detached from reality you can spew out 30 year forecasts.


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