The ocean plumes and currents are chaotic. That means they are so sensitive to unknown initial conditions that we can't predict anything. It's the same with earthquakes. All you can do is put a box around the chaotic part and look at smoother signals.
For earthquakes you can tell general things like whether there is more activity or less. However, you can't narrow it down to anything useful. Those who like to be Popular People make up fantasies that are blown up with the next earthquake.
It's the same thing with weather forecasts. There is an inherent limit to precision, and PP's exploit this by going way out on a limb. Since nobody checks anything, they are fine.
Right now we have a swirly mess heading to Europe. All you can tell is that the weather will be messy.
The Pacific is in a plume mess. Like last year, it can settle into a pattern for a while, and you can predict based on that pattern. However, it can shift any time. Right now, we are getting a succession of previous patterns, lasting one day at a time. It's a mess. During these times, I can only say that the uncertainties of any forecast are zooming up, and I wouldn't put any money on it.
Without a steady 'pinwheel' pattern like last year, I will still go with an early and long winter, defined by world degree days. This can be checked next Spring, but who's going to do that?
ps. this is the last for 'Physics Forecast'. It was cute, now it's a chore. On to greater things!
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