Sea level stays low - cold cycle remains

 

This is the start of the monthly reporting to check the world's temperature.  The sea level is the most direct way of checking, since the oceans act as a giant bulb thermometer.  For the past few months, the static sea level has predicted a sharp drop in global temperatures.

So, I expect another significant drop, mainly because of the death of the Pacific circulation.  Warmie-weather people can call it La Nina, which they never quantify in terms of energy.  That's like eliminating any scale for earthquakes, so you can call your mother, and say "We had an earthquake this morning.'  :)

ps. and yeah the warmies found something to talk about - Japan's cherry trees.  They can always find one warmer spot in the world.  

Cold blob descending rapidly

 The last hurrah of the cold -- maybe.

This is a very heavy blob with lots of black.  The forecast is only for a one-day wonder, but it could be more.

You can see how fast it is moving by the clear zone.  

Arctic cold getting chewed by hungry sharks

 

The Arctic cold is still very strong for this time of the year.  Lots of black spots.  But the sharks are in a feeding frenzy.

The tropical plumes are getting up there and chewing away with heat energy.  The Atlantic belt is much stronger than the Pacific.  I finally figured out a good mechanism for an ice age cycle.  The Pacific current just stops.  Again we might expect it to start up again in 20 years.  If both oceans stop then this could be a big cycle. 

The Arctic ice volume curves is finally leveling off.  Yeah!  But I still expect a cold April, if measured in degree days, and not 'one day wonders'.

Earthquakes mentioned for nuclear waste

 Yeah!  Earthquakes are mentioned again.  We've had a huge drought in earthquakes, caused by climate change, since droughts of any kind are climate change.  

It's funny that the loose sand of that area has been choked up with nuclear wast already.  There is nothing you could do to make a difference.  I want that area totally paved over.

However, it is a federal cash-cow reserve.  It supports lots of people who don't know they are dead.  These places will exist forever.  So, in once sense, filling a big swamp with more nuclear waste makes sense.

They could have monitored what happened to all the nuclear waste poured into the swamp from the last big meltdown, but that would be useful information.  It has most likely all drained to Ottawa, and made that place what it is today.

So, raise a glass of radioactive water, and know that it is quite healthy for old guys.  Kills all the cancer.  Have fun!

ps.  the serious translation, is that this place probably has more released radioactive inventory than most armpits of the world.  Any proposed site would need a survey of existing conditions and they can't do that here.  The bound radionuclides and the wetlands probably freshen the horrible Ottawa river.  

Toronto house gets no bids

 Only second-hand information.  But this is interesting, since it is exactly this sort of thing that made me call the end of the last frenzy in Unionville.  The frenzy went to condos.

On the surface, it just means that they priced it so high that it scared off any bidders.  There is no great reason for the end of the lastest ridiculous frenzy, but it has to come one day.  We'll see if that means anything.

The curse of silty clay

 

This is a great geotechnical story.  As we know, the once-great field of geotechnical engineering has joined the dodo bird in retirement.  Everybody and their dog now think they can bury that bone without any help, thank you very much.  Now, everything is a 'handyman special' that gets into trouble once in a while.

This isn't just sand, but they think it is.  This is silty clay, probably with a lot of clay content.  Not your average dirt.  Clay has adhesion, like crazy glue.  Now, had there been a protocol to stop all engines when impacting the side, we might have less trouble.  But I'm sure they gunned it back and forth a bit, saying 'Oh my god, mom's going to kill me!'.

We are talking massive adhesion.  If they had mounted accelerometers on the ship while they were pulling, they would know.  But handymen never monitor, they just bash away with a hammer.

They think it's the bow, so the next attempt will be to unload some containers from the bow, all without monitoring.  Most likely it will do nothing, but we'll never know.  It will cost the world billions, but it is run like a laundromat.  See you next week.

ps.  the guys with hammers think they moved it 2 inches, but it probably just settled back.  You would need drones to put on differential gps bow and aft to get that kind of information.  

pps.  Yeah, 10 days and it's free!

Last blob attack at the old saloon

 

The weather people have this as a one-day attack where you have to cover your garden hose spigot, and take in the plants.  There is a lot of black behind it, so it might be more.

The Arctic is still strong, and the ice volume is still shooting up.  No tropical plumes have managed so far to get past the ice lock.  We can expect another attack, maybe, but I put up the title to make the warmies happy.

Let's all wear N99.999999 masks!

 Reference

Somebody will make a lot of money if this goes through.  Physics people know the meaning of 'Diminishing Returns', our wonderful leftie English Majors never know that.  They focus on whatever trivial influence they want to.

Let's imagine an alternative universe.  Little c-bugs get introduced to humans by either a sneezing lama or a lab-leak.  They are quite well-evolved for lama parties, they have endurance, oxygen protection, and rapid reproduction.  When the humans find them, they have fun in usual social situations of snotting, sneezing, sucking up the nose, and finger contact.

The humans wake up and recognize that they should wash their hands and wear crummy masks.  They listen to doctors who are all biology majors.  Lurking in the c-bug population are unsuccessful variants who are swamped out by the regular bug.  And just like the ICU, the humans wipe out all the regular lama-bugs.

Suddenly, the variants have a chance.  The softer bugs can get through masks and are directly shot into the eyes.  No need to be rugged, they can have much more sticky hairs.  They succeed and work around masks and handwashing.

The human doctors can't admit they are wrong and double down on useless masks.  The masks get to be the size of a cantaloupe.  The variants laugh and start to kill everybody.  Bigger and bigger masks with motors and oxygen tanks, while leaving the eyes untouched.  Yeah!

Nurses reported they didn't get the c-bug when they added eye protection to the mask.  What if they chucked the mask and just went with eye protection?  Would the results be the same?  We'll never know.

So, this imaginary world became like a big ICU with super-bugs everywhere.  Next the people will try vaccines which kill 99% of the bugs.  What happens to that 1%?  I hate to think.  Anyway, a much better chance than masks, since simple variations won't work.

Sooz Ship Common Design Failure

 

I have noticed in the last few decades that everybody has dropped the ball on standard 1 in 100 event designs.  In general, engineering ruggedness has dropped to about 1 in 10 (all single digit precision).

A rare event generally requires two independent failures.  We can always rely on that happening fairly often, since a single failure is common, and we always have backups to try to get things safer.  For example, a window washer would always design his rig to living memory.  Legislation tries to go to 1 in 1000 or 10,000. 

In this case it was always a disaster waiting to happen.  Ships were getting bigger, but no new systems compensated for this.  They still relied on patronage-hired local pilots.  But in this case, there was a huge wind shear, and no monitoring.  This is 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000.  The ships have no automated side-thruster system to prevent the big swing.  Once the bow hit, then momentum would grind the stern in, and the props would dig a fine grave.  Humans just can't react fast enough.

This is the same with everything now, and I like to focus on nuclear plants and earthquakes.  Everybody goes with living memory.  In the old company, at the beginning, we would get creative with rare disaster scenarios.  Now, everything is run in a fine stalinist manner.  :)

As with all these disasters recently, a witch-hunt always wants to find one person to blame (scapegoat), or they just shug and say 'Who knew?'.  Same with covid, same with everything.  No physics means more disasters.

ps.  in a panic they probably reversed the props, digging everything in better.  

pps.  these ships have become more unstable as they keep piling up containers.  They tip all the time.  A ship could tip in the canal, and that would be just as much of a disaster. 

Lined up for extreme cold in April

 

That completes the prediction for snow in April, even though it might be too dry and clear for snow, when the blob descends.  However, snow is likely when that cold air mass is pushed out.  

Another cold blob is descending quickly.  You can see the clear air in the mimic.

Meanwhile, the Arctic ice volume is chugging away, and will soon break records.  According to the warmie narrative, this is all due to La Nina, and we'll be boiling to death soon enough.

Cold Blob Just Mucking Around

 This is the end of the blob series.  Not with a bang but a whimper.

It's just going to hang around and give us some cool weather and rain.  It's being hit by a massive warm plume from the Gulf.

Totally not interesting.  You might as well go back to tickytock.  Still lots of black blobs.  Maybe another attempt next week.

ps.  meanwhile the Arctic ice volume is amazing.  It is going to smash into the average band and set a new record.  No tropical plumes are getting on top of the ice.

and the UK is freezing.  None of those tropical plumes want to visit.

pps.  that's probably it for me until April 1, when the sea levels come out.  I'm expecting a big drop since there isn't a single warm place in the world, and no warmie tales.  I'm also expecting a ridiculous drop in world temperatures, since I think we are witnessing history.  (again).  :)

more:  for Penny, it's okay to bring out the hose now.  I just did.  The sun is very strong now, and should keep the blobs away.  If there is a very cold night at 10 below, just cover the faucet and let it drip.

This Pacific Current is Dead

 Every day we go into new territory, regarding physics.  I finally got the latest ocean currents.  After 2016, we started with the death of the northern currents, and now the main Pacific current is dead.  It was always there for us, going mainly west, with some El Nino reversals.  There was no physics to quantify the energy changes.

We have no reference physics, so I can call this 'unprecedented' all I want.  Such a vague term. Anyway, the current has entered the 'Quivering Mass' stage of chaotic motion.  Hopefully, it goes back to normal.

The temperature anomaly shows that nothing is there, in terms of a heat source.  It may be that everything is just 'average', like the entropy 'end of the universe' as total 'grey goo'.  There has always been something there before.

The straight temperatures don't show much heat.

If the weather people knew physics, then we could categorize these events like earthquakes.  The 2016 El Nino was an M9.  The Halfsie El Nino was M7.  Nearly all La Nina's are M5.  This is like an M9 La Nina, or maybe something new altogether.  

Nobody reads my backgrounder, but these ocean currents are the main 'heat pipes' of the world.  All our heat near the poles comes from the equatorial currents and generated tropical plumes.  With no action, we enter an ice age.  I'm not saying we are entering an ice age, because I'm starting to read a lot of fatuous articles titled 'No, we are not entering an ice age.'.  This the standard way of defending the failed carbon hypothesis.

Get poly-tunnels for your tomatoes!

ps.  just substitute 'summer' for 'winter'  :)

Blob stalls against a direct tropical jet

 

Neato, you never see the bottom edge of the blob as straight as a ruler.  

We have a direct jet from the Gulf, which I haven't seen before, either.  Of course, my memory is crap.  A good blob attack has to slip between the strong tropical plumes.  We also have the Great Lakes which have stopped every blob so far.

But this blob has a lot of cold behind it, and the plumes are ephemeral.  Lets wait a few days.

ps.  and the ice volume is following the old lines and not the warmie warm spell.  Winter still has some fun for us.

pps.  the downside of proving the warmies to be wrong is not pleasant.  Sooner or later they will adjust 'The Narrative' to have a 'temporary' cold spell caused by La Nina.  

Blob shifts to Toronto

 

It's a huge air glacier, but I don't think it's a Texas-killer.  

You can see by the clear air in the mimic that it's moving fast.  That Pacific plume must be pushing it.  Some nice black blobs want to visit Toronto.  We'll see soon.

ps.  Somebody's happy.

Cold blob continues

 

It's crossed the provincial line, but it may be shearing off.  There is one large Pacific plume that may determine the future movement.

But right now, we have an Alberta Clipper pushing out our warm plume.  I have said that the definition of a long winter is snow from November to April, and we'll get that.  The blob may not make it to Texas, but it should hit us.  

You can see some black zones crowding in.  Don't plant anything yet!

The final attack on Texas

 

I like to call them early, even when there is only a 10% chance.  But this looks good.  

From the mimic you can see it's starting to move at a fair clip.  All the black zones are piling in.  This is a full attack.

However, the Sun is now beating down on us and we are well into Spring.  There are some mighty forces on both sides.  By tomorrow, this should be a full blob, halfway down Alberta.  To have a reasonable chance on Texas, it should get to -40 in Edmonton.  

Most likely, it will be beaten back at the US border.  But that isn't very exciting. :)

ps.  the weather people will tell you that the Jet Stream is a giant 'Rabbit-Proof Fence'  with lots of holes, but it isn't.

pps.  the surface winds are all heading to the blob like a covid party.

Weak Pacific plumes give us Spring weather

 

Don't be fooled.  I think we're good to have one more major freeze.  The Arctic is shedding all heat energy, and the ice volume is charging upwards.

You can see how the plumes are shaving off the cold blob.  However, a slight shift in the chaotic Pacific plumes can cut out a big hunk of cold.  A black blob is still hanging around.

Meanwhile, Australia is wet and cold.  That's somewhat difficult for the warmie narrative, so they are being quiet.  Perhaps California can have some fires.

So, I'm just saying that you shouldn't connect your hose faucet back.  Just enjoy the sun and warmth.

Toronto's last blast of Winter

 

Ha!

What we have right now is an epic battle between Blob and Plume.

It's horrendously cold up North.  The ice volume is still curving up.  I'm expecting another large drop in world temperatures.  

Blob, meet Plume.  Toronto is at the war zone.  If you look at the long-range forecast, you see it's changing every day.  The ground in the garden is still frozen.  From experience, we know that the black zones in the Arctic air will try to attack Texas again.  They won't get that far, but far enough for Canada.

As I have said before, you can read lovely stories from Warmieville to keep yourself amused.

ps.  Blob wins according to the forecast radar.  Yeah!

New Toronto office tower gives the finger to Toronto office towers

 

I love it!

Because that's what I think for the future of such things.  :)

Buy this happy book for cold winter nights

Buy this book from a Toronto native who lives in cold Texas.  Maybe she doesn't now since she has a new job as 'Super Saviour of the Earth'.  

This book comes out in September and will compete on the talk show circuit with my book:

IT'S ALL A CROCK!

Oprah will treat each book in a different manner.

If you buy her book as a real book, then it will be useful when it gets really cold.  :)

ps.  My book's title is recursive, and will not be printed in paper.

Arctic ice volume still tilting up

 

Normally, it should be leveling off. 

I was waiting for the ocean currents, but they are delayed.  I don't expect anything exciting, and the fact that nothing is changing will mean we continue to be cold.  If we were to be warming up again, I'd expect to see the northern currents starting up again.  They stopped after 2016, and plunged us into cold.

The above map still shows some black zones, which is probably why the ice is so healthy.

Physics cures 'Old Man' complaints - Part 1

 I finally cured the plantar fasciitis in my right foot, and I'm celebrating.  As with back problems, it is all physics, and the medical world handles physics as well a computer booking system created by doctors.

The medical world treats it as an injury to the heel attachment.  For my left foot, I was under 40 and spent a lot of the company's money on medical treatments, and special footwear, etc.  Never worked.  There's a monstrous industry for this crap.  Thank god they'll never read this.

If your back goes, you'll blame the last straw, like picking up a sock.  That's not it.  It's a lifetime of slouching at the computer.  Your spine is a marvelous machine of soft and hard pieces.  Slouching causes the soft jelly disks to bulge, and it takes years.

But, the game's afoot!  Or back to the foot.  Medicine concentrates on symptoms, or disease and injury.  Physics concentrates on fundamental forces.  PF comes from a lifetime of walking like a duck.  That was me, my feet stuck out at 45 degrees.

When you walk like a duck, there is a lot of impact on the inside of the heel, but that's not the main problem.  It's that you are not pulling the whole system.  That big tendon starts to accumulating glued spots, or adhesions.  You can feel this if you give the wife a foot massage in the hot tub.  A deep thumb pressure feels crunchy.  Tendons should not be crunchy, they should be slippery eels in your hands.

-next part

ps.  never a next part.

A Pest Repeller That Works

 Maybe.

 

I got them when they were on sale.  You should wait.  I enjoyed reading the reviews and all the little experiments people did.  I'm really getting them for the cottage, which will be a test.  I'm not too sure how the dog is reacting, because I put them in the garage, and didn't throw her in.

These things have never worked in the past, but they may have hit the sweet spot with these.  To be scientific, I would have liked a full lab report with the frequency range, and power output.  You can't tell whether they are really throwing anything out.

My experiment was with my microgreens.  I've been fighting little fruit flies all winter.  I put this in and they were gone.  Could be that they were leaving anyway.  

The physics is good that at some frequency, their little brains start to resonate, but who knows?  At the cottage, I'll just plug them in when we leave (for the dog), and see if the place isn't full of bugs when we come back.  A proper dog test is just too cruel.

If you actually have a place with reliable bugs and mice, then try them out.   As usual, if you want to see the ammie ad, then you have to turn off the ad blocker for my blog.

ps.  I just did the dog test when she walked by one in the garage.  No ear flicks or anything.

pps.  wow.  I opened the grow tent and one micro fly shot out into the freezing cold, committing suicide.

Cold Blob Forms Up for Another Attack

 And I thought it was done for the season.

But we start to see the black again.  This is air at -40 to -50.  I like to call it an 'Air Glacier'.  I would love to see a chart of the volume or area of the blue blob.  But, after a monster ozone hole last year, there seems to be nothing this year.  Good for those who like to sunbathe at 40 below.

There are no animations of the Blue Blob, but you can get a hint of it with the plume chart.

The descending clear area is the blob.  The black area of the blob is nothing compared to the 'Texas Attack', so we won't have to listen to those whiners again.  The 'Warmie Machine' is quiet these days, I wonder why.  

The Pacific plumes are quite chaotic these days, so there's no predictable pattern.  A while ago, it was a standard Spring pattern, but that's gone.  The Arctic ice volume is still building up with a strong line.

It's curving up a bit.  I'm expecting a strong finish in the race against history.  The Pacific ocean is still cold, so I expect a late Spring, which is bad for my tomatoes.

And we have poor Europe and the UK.  Lots of snow for them.

ps.  I just realized that the Warmie Machine is full of Australia and Antarctica news during our freeze.  But those guys are cold with lots of plumes crossing them.  Could it be that the fire cycle has nothing to do with carbon?

Not a speck of any news from them.  Totally forgotten.

Phrenology - Part 2

 First, a note about the study of history, or History.  This is just an entertainment, of no use to the world whatsoever.  Every history book written just confirms all the biases of the day, and people read it for comfort in confirming popular notions.  I enjoy it, because the purpose is for old men to make fun of the modern world, and all the people caught up in the moment.  Everybody is always doomed to repeat history.

Phrenology

Phrenology is incredibly cute, like kittens on the internet.

There has always been a tribal bias in humanity.  It helped villages to survive millions of years ago.  Anybody different was frowned upon.  So, there has always been ancient feelings about appearances.

It took one wacky guy to put it all together.  He came out with an unbelievably detailed map of the skull, and many explanations of what each area meant.  For evidence, he cited some previous observations, but it all came from his head.  An amazingly original work.

So, how could a guy in the middle of nowhere take over the world?  It was mostly taken up by the early Victorians, or the later Bridgertons.  It was a time of great flux in the world, and great anxiety.  People needed the comfort to confirm their own biases.  And it was the start of the 'Penny Dreadful', or cheap pamphlets that flew around everywhere.  A massive change in popular communication.

Everybody seized on this, and soon you had a 100% consensus of those people who published in the type of journal above.  A time of great glory, and you could use it to discriminate against those you didn't like.

The surprising thing is that it just faded away.  No big ending.  It caused the 'formalization' of the Scientific Method, the need for mechanisms and such.  One guy tried various 'readings' and did the exact opposite of the manuals.  He got the same 'fantastic' results.  That was for palms, but other people probably did it for skulls.  By that time, they were firmly in the late Victorian era, where people knew 'cause and effect', and the Scientific Method.

That's it, and it has no bearing on the modern world whatsoever.

Great Sciences of the Past - Phrenology Part 1

 I am officially declaring 'Atmospheric Physics' to be depressing.  Who wants to know that we are plunging into an Ice Age, and there's nothing we can do.  Far better to put up pretty windmills, and beat up on  the oil companies.  So, I am leaving all that behind, in an attempt to get more than 10 readers, without people trying to kill me.

I am interested in the forces that started a 'Declarative Science', and how it ended.  Anything from history has nothing to do with today.  We all know that.

This is Part 1 because I have to walk the dog.  This series just looks at the historical context of past Declarative Sciences, and I do not want to bring these horrible things back to life.

-end of Part 1

Investments for an Ice Age

 This is satirical.  I have never been right with investments.  But, we have to do something, now that the NOAA Big Red Line is plunging down to cold hell.  Most of the world will be content to think it will bounce back up again, like silver after the Hunt brothers.

Tesla -- gone.  This was a stupid idea, all based on explosive batteries that give China power over the world.

Spacex -- up.  We'll all be snowed in, and we need our Internet.

Carbon Capture -- gone.  They can capture carbon from the air at a claimed $200 a ton, but if you look at the details, it's probably twice that.

Windmills -- gone.  They kill all the birds, and can't run half the time.  Again, all control to China.

Solar cells -- gone.  They produce more horrible effects being made, than they can ever recover.  We have to chop down trees for more land.  Totally dependent on China.

Fiber Optics - up.  Underground fiber will survive the ice.

Insulation -- up.  Texas needs a lot.

Natural gas -- up.  You have to keep warm.  Frack gas, however, will cause earthquakes.

Air conditioning -- up.  It's a funny thing that the colder we get, the hotter will be July.

Nuclear power -- gone.  Nothing to do with climate, it is just bureaucratic stupidity.

Europe -- gone.  They'll just think up another stupid fad.

ps.  please note that I do not deny 'Faith of Carbon Warmth'.  It is a powerful religion with many nasty zealots.  I just leave it alone, and enter 'The Scientific Method'.  That is totally isolated from faith, and has no part in the modern FB and Twit world.

Implications of an Ice Age

 

These are today's minimum temperatures.  Think of that as year-round ice.

NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

But the next big headlines, after "We're all going to boil to death." will be "We are all going to freeze to death."  That's the way of our bankrupt media.  

When I talk about an ice age, it will be just a 70's cycle.  We'll have Florida oranges freezing, and that's about it.  The UK will have more snow.  La la la.

What we don't want to see is a big dive to 1800's.  That's when Toronto and Ottawa always had 10 feet of snow in the winter.  The UK could skate on the Thames.  At this point we can't tell what's going to happen, but we did have Texas, which was a hundred year event.  This last big freeze cycle broke in 1800, well before the first steam engine.  I don't want to have to chip the ice in the lake in the summer.

To determine what cycle we are in, we will have to do some physics.  As you know, all atmospheric physics was banned by nasa, when the Venus Guy took over.  We need to get back to that.

Once all the nasty warmies are out on the street, I can start my big work about how all this happened.  It will be in an NFT -- Ha!  That's too much work.  Somebody else can do it.