I like to call them early, even when there is only a 10% chance. But this looks good.
From the mimic you can see it's starting to move at a fair clip. All the black zones are piling in. This is a full attack.
However, the Sun is now beating down on us and we are well into Spring. There are some mighty forces on both sides. By tomorrow, this should be a full blob, halfway down Alberta. To have a reasonable chance on Texas, it should get to -40 in Edmonton.
Most likely, it will be beaten back at the US border. But that isn't very exciting. :)
ps. the weather people will tell you that the Jet Stream is a giant 'Rabbit-Proof Fence' with lots of holes, but it isn't.
pps. the surface winds are all heading to the blob like a covid party.