Nuclear plants are designed with 'defence in depth' meaning that there are multiple independent layers. Although Candu reactors can't 'meltdown' in a classical US manner, they can dry up and release a fearful amount of radioactivity both into the lake and into the air.
Nobody knows how close we came to this during the recent Great Blackout, and nobody ever will. Suffice to say that the odds of such a blackout had been stated at 'one in a million' and no defences were set up for it. Afterwards, a totally new emergency power plant was built.
The odds of a major release should be kept at 'one in ten million', which is the official response. Nothing is as opaque as Ontario Power Generation (OPG). You'll only see their talking heads, and the media accepts this. OPG has the advantage of being both a government and commercial organization. They tell nothing. Perhaps Doug Ford can change this.
I used to think 'What the heck?' -- Toronto will be in horribly bad shape. True, but radiation is icing on the cake. Surprisingly, all of Toronto's commercial buildings we be intact, but no power and no gas. No workers can come in because all the lifelines are cut. In the winter, we'll be chopping up the furniture for warmth. Radiation would make rescue impossible.
Now, the talking heads can argue several points, which makes this whole article a useless thing. :)
No chance of a big earthquake: This is a true statement when you think that most people only think in terms of 'living memory', which is about 1 in 100 per year. But the Hamilton Fault is as active as any zone east of the Rockies. That concentrates the odds to one in a thousand or ten. Those are Japanese odds!
Nuclear plants are designed for earthquakes: That's true. All the heavy components are 'heavy'. The are also on piles, so there has never been any chance that the pipes would be broken. But everything else in a nuclear plant isn't designed like that. Pickering B is a seismic disaster.
Scenario: Forget that Toronto will be destroyed, we're talking radiation here, far beyond what the pills can help with. First, all power and gas will be cut off. Most important is that Pickering uses a trench intake, and is surrounded by mountains of silt in the lake. The intake channel barely has an equilibrium with the silt on the bottom. Just the plant shut down and a big storm will block the channel. But the earthquake is something else! All the silt will explode with liquefaction. Not a drop of water coming in. As well, the M7+ thrust earthquake will cause a huge lake seiche, which is the lake version of a tsunami.
All the pressure tubes dry out. The vacuum building can only take one reactor at a time. The so-called emergency power plant is built on a swamp. It is gone. There is water storage, but again, for one reactor. The tubes will melt and sag. The heat will build up so the tubes might burn. But the attempt to prevent that will create a lot of radioactive steam.
The citizens of Toronto can't flee. They are trapped by the collapsing Gardner Expressway. Not a very happy scene and I will wipe it from my mind. If the wind is from the North, then no worries, just don't fish in the lake any more.
Where is the regulator in all of this? Successive governments have made this a political plum for loyal retainers (Liberals started it). The employees cringe and hide.
ps. the various PR departments of all concerned contain all their intellect. I am ignored and safe. :)
Thursday, August 2, 2018
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
'Stupidity Defence' goes wild
Reference
I've written about it for years, since it was so prevalent in the old company. It's simply 'wilful ignorance' applied well in advance.
The story is "I'm the victim here. I was so stupid!" This has worked for all senior white males, since everybody believes them. Can you imaging trumpy at a trial?
It doesn't work for people like Martha Stuart. She tried and nobody believed her. Probably no good for black people. But really, is there any top white male executive that makes anybody believe he's not stupid? Big Warren, maybe, but he can now claim senility. :)
ps. Figured it out. He can't win with this defence. He's playing to trumpy supporters, so there isn't civil war when trumps pardons him.
I've written about it for years, since it was so prevalent in the old company. It's simply 'wilful ignorance' applied well in advance.
The story is "I'm the victim here. I was so stupid!" This has worked for all senior white males, since everybody believes them. Can you imaging trumpy at a trial?
It doesn't work for people like Martha Stuart. She tried and nobody believed her. Probably no good for black people. But really, is there any top white male executive that makes anybody believe he's not stupid? Big Warren, maybe, but he can now claim senility. :)
ps. Figured it out. He can't win with this defence. He's playing to trumpy supporters, so there isn't civil war when trumps pardons him.
Get ready for another El Nino - NOT!
Reference
Everybody loves a doom story. This is not going to happen. Of course, I'll take a 'walk back' if it happens. :)
The Pacific equatorial belt current has been like this since the collapse of Monster El Nino.
It's bleeding heat right back in a big circle. No heat coming to the north. The Gulf Stream is gone, so the northern currents are dead. This leaves us with 'Default Weather' according to latitude. Super hot summers, extremely cold winters.
Global temperatures have been plunging this year. I'm amazed that they say the opposite. But these are the guys 'who can't be wrong' because it's bad optics. This, from a country where 'Being Wrong is the New Right'.
Our climate doomers want this trend to go back up, but it won't. No ocean currents. We, in Toronto, have been lucky to get Atlantic moisture, but it stops here for the most part. Just ask Parry Sound 33.
The physics of the standard El Nino is that heat builds up in the Pacific islands, and then bursts back every 7 years or so. You can see that 1997 was the former big one, and this last one was huge. My hypothesis is that we are going back into 70's weather, so be prepared.
**nasa could have done a zillion measurements to directly define the extent of the 'greenhouse gas' but they didn't. Because it doesn't exist! The only thing that will throw egg on their face is that this graph plunges to the bottom of the chart.
ps. La Nina is just an overshoot, because the North Pacific current takes time to start up again. Not happening this time. I'm so glad they are finally calling this last El Nino 'huge'. I've been saying this for a long time now.
pps. Ok, Noah, chief ninnies along with nasa are predicting this based on sea surface temperatures.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Heat energy is 3d!
Everybody loves a doom story. This is not going to happen. Of course, I'll take a 'walk back' if it happens. :)
The Pacific equatorial belt current has been like this since the collapse of Monster El Nino.
It's bleeding heat right back in a big circle. No heat coming to the north. The Gulf Stream is gone, so the northern currents are dead. This leaves us with 'Default Weather' according to latitude. Super hot summers, extremely cold winters.
Global temperatures have been plunging this year. I'm amazed that they say the opposite. But these are the guys 'who can't be wrong' because it's bad optics. This, from a country where 'Being Wrong is the New Right'.
Our climate doomers want this trend to go back up, but it won't. No ocean currents. We, in Toronto, have been lucky to get Atlantic moisture, but it stops here for the most part. Just ask Parry Sound 33.
The physics of the standard El Nino is that heat builds up in the Pacific islands, and then bursts back every 7 years or so. You can see that 1997 was the former big one, and this last one was huge. My hypothesis is that we are going back into 70's weather, so be prepared.
**nasa could have done a zillion measurements to directly define the extent of the 'greenhouse gas' but they didn't. Because it doesn't exist! The only thing that will throw egg on their face is that this graph plunges to the bottom of the chart.
ps. La Nina is just an overshoot, because the North Pacific current takes time to start up again. Not happening this time. I'm so glad they are finally calling this last El Nino 'huge'. I've been saying this for a long time now.
pps. Ok, Noah, chief ninnies along with nasa are predicting this based on sea surface temperatures.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Heat energy is 3d!
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