Atlantic residual heat finally does the right thing

 All my thoughts of cold have been stymied by residual Atlantic heat.  That was knocked by our big heating event, and is now corrected by the Mega-Blob.  

It can now join the Gulf of Maine, which is the main thermometer for our temperatures.  The world air temperatures do a funny thing with the math, that hurts my brain.  I hope the NOAA Octopus straightens that out.  They are actually adding degrees, which makes me snort my coffee out my nose.

We are getting a slow slider of cold air, so we have snow for New Years Day.

You can see that air is going right over the whole Eastern US.  This is nothing, but natgas seems to like it.

The anomaly map looks like the meteor impact that killed the dinosaurs (ha,ha).

ps and natgas falls on this weak cold.  We need a Mega-Blob!

Trump replaces NOAA with an octopus

 

I am using real names today.  This is a satire site.  Please don't kill me.

Mega-Blob blows up natgas

 

Wow, this little 'spear of destiny' isn't that much, and we are only getting the side-blow of the mega-blob.  Can't wait for the full mega-blob hit on NA and/or Europe.  That's 10 bucks for sure.

ps. this is just a mixed slider, with a bit of the mega-blob.

The forecast has it sliding right down.

The store and release mechanism of the Pacific Belt- Part 3

 We'll just go into the main heat engine of the atmosphere for a minute, because it is completely different from the oceans.  The main mechanism for 'doing things' or 'work' is convection with water.  Convection is a million times more active in 'working' than radiation.  Nevertheless, the weather people insist that radiation is 'not negligible', therefore 'important', therefore significant.  I can't argue with that because they then hurl personal insults, and kick people off social media.

This huge math error of a million times is more than the mere 'tail wagging the dog', it is the flap of butterfly wings in the middle of a hurricane.  In physics, we dismiss these things as 'insignificant' even if they are only a factor of ten smaller.  That is cruel, and the bleeding hearts can't stand it.

An argument within the Scientific Method does not engage in personal attacks that get physicists fired from leftwinger universities.  It is very structured, with a hypothesis, and new measurements in the field.  We don't get that any more.

Convection with water vapour raises the vapour through a temperature gradient in the atmosphere, called the 'lapse rate'.  We get condensation and rain.  It moves and concentrates heat energy from a diffuse zone at the bottom, and makes a hot zone at the top.  A very efficient heat pump that drives all our weather.

If we have calm conditions, like at the Pacific Belt, this heat engine does nothing.  It is totally contained and circular.  The rain comes down, and all the heat energy can stay at one spot, like having a glass terrarium with rain.  There is some heat leakage at the top in form of clear air convection, ask an airplane flying over the equator, but that goes straight out to space.

The heat moved by the oceans is thousands of times more than the atmosphere, which runs off ocean heat transfer.  This is another major warmie math error.  They sincerely believe that the atmosphere runs the ocean, just by faith alone.  We love those guys.

-- to be continued

ps the ocean heat pump is a mechanical skimmer system, and I just thought of it, so it might be a few days, as my brain gives it a whirl.  

ps -- Ha, I can't even sleep for my snooze, thinking of the mechanism.  I'm shutting it all down, but it is a mechanical skimmer, storage, and spreader system.  No use going down this rabbit hole, since they will never measure anything.  Same with the double-vortex hurricane that is extremely efficient at sucking off heat energy from the ocean.  As well, the Mega-Blob is difficult, but that's going to hit Europe soon, and we'll get measurements from 10,000 deaths.  So, bye for now.

END OF SERIES

Toronto in for cold weather

 We have a forecast of cold and messy weather.  There are no clear Arctic blobs for this, it just looks like seepage.

But it will be nice for the kiddies.  

The Mega-Blob is being stopped by Atlantic plumes, and we are getting some side-squooshing action.

But the Toronto cold is most likely coming from that Sneaky Spear whipping down the side of the mountains and coming for us.

Nothing is clear.

The winds don't really tell us anything.

ps and we continue to have a small heating event.  That's when concentrated heat suddenly spreads out like a radiator, and has some effect.  Here, the feathering is capturing a return current, and there is a very small heating anomaly.  No effect on the overall tropics temperature.

The chaos is all fractal, so the small events have the same mechanisms as the larger ones.

The store and release mechanism of the Pacific Belt- Part 2

 I realize that I might come across as arrogant, pushing the laws of physics.  But I think an influencer can make a good case that those laws are outdated.  Look at all the planes falling out of the sky, LRT trains that don't work, endless wars.  Reality is not defined by rationality.  People make billions selling fantasy.  I can't argue with any of that.  I write in the confidence that nobody will pick up on the simple concepts of basic physics, which isn't taught any more anywhere.  I have hopes for a nephew who is 6 years old.  Perhaps he will pick this up one day.

The big thing with solar heat is that it has to be concentrated to do anything.  Diffuse energy is useless, it has to be concentrated by simple machines.  Windmills use a lever machine to concentrate at the hub.  Plants are concentrating all the time.  For solar heat on the Earth, we need natural machines, and we have them.

If you have a glass of warm water, and a shot glass of hot water, the heat energy is the same.  But the hot water is needed to do things, like warm up your tummy.  You just can't take the diffuse energy of the lukewarm water and warm things up.  That's why we call it waste heat, and our big heat engines throw that out.  That's the problem we have with solar heat, it's all waste heat.

If we want storms and rain, and other wonderful things we need heat engines, so we know they must exist and we must look for them and figure it out.  The lovely warm air of a golden meadow can't do much.  Birds with big wings can glide on the thermals and that's it.

-- to be continued

The store and release mechanism of the Pacific Belt- Part 1

 This is a fun topic, and I don't know much about the exact mechanism, because our fav. people nooa and noosa have eschewed physics, and only work with maps of atmospheric highs and lows.

The mechanisms are always put forward, by me, as varied hypotheses.  I have always used the Scientific Method as a guide for conducting experiments.  The usual for our world now, it to 'explore' and find discoveries.  They always make these discoveries 'meaningful' by simple optimistic linear extrapolation.  You read about 'amazing batteries' and 'the solution to plastic' all the time.  

A long time ago, in a land far away, some people noticed that world temperatures were going up.  They searched everywhere to find something else that was going up, and found carbon dioxide levels were always rising.  With no extra experiments, they put the two together and the rest is history.  Anyone who opposed it were destroyed.  Thus, it became a 'truth'.  I have no objection to that.

I did notice that world temperatures went up when the Pacific Ocean warmed up.  My most powerful chart was a tidal gauge that appeared to be quite level.  All the historic rises and falls in temperature correlated with the ups and downs of the gauge.  Amazing, since water expands when heated.

The oceans and the world are heated by the Sun.  But the 'solar flux', the heat energy received at the surface of the earth, is as solidly flat as I hope trumples heart monitor will be one day.  Although people talk about 'orbital variations' etc, this is absolutely the same all the time.

So, all heat variations in the Earth are due to ocean thingies.  Water carries 4000 times more heat energy than an equal volume of air.  We know that by experience when the hot water spills on us.  You never see the Big Guys mention this.  

All previous big cycles of warmth were due to giant shifts in the Pacific Belt, the El Nino.  The papers that mention this say 'all except the recent one' because they don't want to be killed by Gretas.  Those people are nearly dead themselves now, so I don't worry about them.  So we can correct that to say that 'all' heat peaks are due to Pacific heat energy movements.

-end of part 1

Introducing a new player in the game -- Mega-Blob!

 

We had our giant bout of chaos, and I new something would change.  We've had many changes since I started to look at all this.  Today, we introduce Mega-Blob.

You can see the huge blob going right over Greenland and impacting the Atlantic plumes.  

As usual, this has never been seen before (by me).  We shall call it totally new.  The lower winds are still following the channels, but the whole thing is a cohesive object, with one lobate front.  That means, in 3d, the height of the blob is ten times the channel barrier heights.  Wow!

My model of dense cold air in the Arctic, trapped by topography, is 'blown' away.  Previously, we only had blobs that came down the channels -- Bering, Siberian lowlands, Mackenzie Delta, Greenland Gap, etc.  The winds would come through these channels, and make smaller blobs.  

The mb is a different creature, it is beyond topography, and is filled while being confined by walls of moving warm air, mostly likely cyclones.  It then comes out in a big whoosh, over a very large front, and has 10 times the energy and impact of a regular blob, which is bad enough.

This one is being wasted by pouring over the Atlantic.  It has drained the Arctic, and I don't see any other blobs.  Next, there will be one over Europe, maybe.  

The weather people think we'll have a minor blob coming over Toronto soon. I don't see it yet.  If we eventually get a MB, then it makes a Texas Buster look sad.

ps the world temperature charts are getting a small hook up.

That's across all charts.  It might be this really weird feathering in the west Pacific.  I am wary of weird currents since I missed that last big heating event.

The physics review of 2023-24

I was just going to do 2024, but 2023 had the biggest Earth Physics surprise of my life (that's a bit much), so I have to start from there.

 

The world temperature plot was down in the dumps.

Suddenly the sea temp took off like a rocket.  I totally pooh-poohed this as a chart error.  Was I wrong!

nooa became all focused At the Wrong Spot!.  I didn't see it either.  We were still cold in Toronto, and Arctic spills continued.

For the summer, we had endless wildfire smoke.  blah.  I put out ocean current maps, but never looked at the far west Pacific.  I was an idjit.  

I was certain we would freeze. We froze on our Tahiti vacation.

And there is was, the Great Red Spot that heated our world.  When I glanced at the currents once, I saw a huge uniform current to the south, at the far west.  I never recorded it, darn.  

'23 closed out, and we had the warmest winter for a long time.  No ice formed on the cottage lake.  Everything I was blabbering about turned to ashes.

-- to be continued

ps. not doing '24.  Just decaying heat, and when I thought we would have a good 'Texas Buster' blob, the action has shifted over to the middle of the Atlantic.  Who cares?

Arctic still filling up

 The Toronto 7-day forecast is showing something, but I don't see it.

Might be something heading to the UK.

I can't see any clear signal that we have settled to a 'deterministic' situation.  All is still chaos.

On the road again

 Forgetting that big chaos mess yesterday, things today look like what I expect.

The tropical plumes are all quiet, and they are staying low.  None of those really weird 'string plumes' hitting high.  This is what we expect when the world runs out of heat energy.

The Arctic is getting cold again, a little white in Greenland, but NA is still warm from that double-plume hit.  I expect a full white Greenland tomorrow.

The Arctic winds are just swirling around, and we have the 'filler-up vortexes'.  I thought all my mechanisms have cleared out with the chaos, but it is business as usual.

ps and the world temperatures have dived below last year, so it will be a 'work of art' to show that 2024 is the 'warmest year ever'

The currently biggest drama for World Climate

 

That's the Nino Zone, the furnace to the Earth.  Looking at the other years, this decline is a new thing.  I would almost say 'unprecedented' but that's over-used.  

I look at that and ask if there is a bottom, and I don't think so.  We can always go for world record.

I'm just showing this because I am recovering from my Arctic disaster.  Anyway, we must expect this development to mean something, even though I don't know what.

It's at 2010, and soon will be 1999 (2000 winter).  

The winter of 2000 in Toronto was characterized by temperatures that were generally below normal from mid-January to mid-February, and snow that covered the ground for 42 consecutive days.

ps. I am sure there is a near-perfect correlation between this graph and the type of winter.  If I am feeling my oats, I think the graph will bust through the bottom to announce the ice cycle.

Arctic airflow gone chaotic

 This is life with the chaos of Earth's heat flow.  One day you think you have a pattern, then, kablooie, the whole thing blows up.  We were having predictable Arctic blobs, and now this latest one has gone east.

I love it, but all predictions are off the table for a while, as this chaos storm plays out.  We are getting mild weather from the Pacific and the Gulf.  There is no heat energy left for both mechanisms, so it has to settle down.

Curses, foiled again!  Those trumples are laughing at us.

ps my influencer rep for totally accurate forecasts has gone.  I'm an influencer has-been.  I have no views, so perhaps I should be a wallymart greeter.

Congratulations, It's a Medium!

 A new cold blob is born.  This doesn't look like much, and will grow up to be an accountant.  

Greenland is half white.

It might be influenced by the Pacific Plume, but who knows?  It's not on the Toronto forecast yet.

However, the mechanics look good.  The Greenland Gap is blocked by warm water and a strong Atlantic plume, and the Alaska gap is at full capacity.  I am enjoying how the plumes are stretched out to be thin strings.  

We will dub this Canada's Revenge #2, and we are just getting 'warmed' up.

ps.  a weird thing is that the tropical plumes are weak, but 'compensate' by being long and thin.  They have less effect on the world, but higher impact at the tips.  

ps and Merry White Christmas.  

ps this is fun because the tail end of the Toronto 7 day forecast has finally started to drop.

ps. poohey.  This looks to be swept out to sea by strong Pacific and Gulf plumes combining.

ps. at least the snow was fun.

First sighting of the next Arctic spill

 Please ignore this, I am getting ridiculous.  I stare and stare at the MIMIC, looking for the smooth front of an Arctic spill.

You can see here that all is cold on the Arctic Front.  Look at those gentle filling cyclones.  That's just a drain action of the warm air coming in over the top, losing all the heat by clear-air convection, and spiralling down to fill the Arctic Basin with cold, dense air.  That is the same as glacial head-pond action, and is due for a spill over.  But not yet.  We have a little spill through the Bering Str, but who cares?

This filling pond will never pose a threat to humanity.  No weather person would know about a Filling Vortex.  I just came up with that.

But just to drive me nuts, we see the lip of a perfect curve.  I've been 100% correct with larger curves, so I am pushing it to 'teensy weensy' so I am not always correct.  I hate that.  Stops the learning process.  Only the big guys have to be 100% correct, at least in public opinion.  They never would say 'Ooops!'.  Can you imagine someone saying they had a factor of 10 math error, but it didn't matter?

I think they have a math error of a factor of 100 in the 'radiation vs. convection' debate, but it doesn't matter.

AI has now reached Socratic Intelligence

 

I would call that Socratic Science reasoning.  That's looking out your window and coming up with an explanation, and then doing a linear extrapolation for the future.  With finance, that's called 'momentum investing'.  It's proven to be the worst thing over time.

I recently had a big tussle with Googs AI, regarding heat energy removal for the earth.  It just used text from established institutions.  I could never get it to go into 'physics mode' with uncertainties, etc.  The best that I could get to was that convection dominated atmospheric heat transfer, but that radiation (the warmie thing) was 'none negligible'.  I couldn't get it to go further.  With physics, if something is an influence of a factor of 10 less (10%), it is considered 'insignificant'.  It is part of the noise.

None negligible could be 1%, or less.  As well, it stated that convection is confined to the lower atmosphere (troposphere) and cannot be a mechanism for Earth heat removal.  That is garbage, because without any air molecules, all heat transfer from there on up is radiation.  They confuse that with radiation from the surface of the earth, and use it to reinforce the radiation dominance.

Open AI claims to have a new AI engine that can reason with physics and math.  Ha, let's see that in action, but I'm not paying for anything with my soul.

ps all those doomer scare stories about black plastic, or tea bags use 'non negligible' which can be parts per billion.

The joke's on China

 

They will produce zillions of human robots for factories.  They will swamp the world with electric cars, and solar cells.

They are just like the brainless warmies - everything is a linear extrapolation of what you see out the door.  Life doesn't work like that.  The future still belongs to the 'brights' who come up with original things.  I find that Stalinist management never comes up with anything.

China has Stalmang right from the top.  For a while, you could see bright people trying to make things and avoiding it.  That was the great time of 'Best of Both Worlds'.  Now, the dreaded chill of central control seeps over everything.  Look at Hongykongy.

We have the same management style in Canada, eastern US, and Europe.  Nothing original comes from that.  California will soon have its great earthquake.  Who is the next source of originality?  

For example, factories are designed for walking things with limbs.  Everything is spread out with safety rails everywhere.  When we throw in all robots, will warehouses and factories look the same?  No.  You can squoosh everything together.  The factories and warehouse of the future will just be a big box, with small cockroach robots zooming in and fixing things.

I remember that just when transistors came in, they started to make the best vacuum tubes ever.

ps at Christmas, the dinner conversation with the California rats, is "Why is Canada so sludgy?".  Nobody knows.  

North America all wrapped up in warm red for White Christmas

 

Everybody have fun on the toboggan hill.  Merry Christmas!

ps enjoy snow while you can.

ps natgas isn't listening to my warmie-thoughts.  I'm trying to drive it right down, so the rise is much more dramatic later.

Maybe the New Year rain will send it down.

Ding dong, the wicked cold is dead!

 Today we give a Christmas gift to all the warmies in nice top positions.  The cold is over forever.  The temperatures are going up to lobsterize all of us.  Your jobs are secure, there will be no pitchforks and torches at your gates.

We are back to last winter, when Pacific plumes warmed us all from that giant heating event, in a specific spot, that was caused by world covering clouds, caused by climate change.  It's a bit of a mouthful, but all the media gets it.

Look at Greenland melting!  

The anomaly plot is hot, hot, hot.  And we know how good the anomaly plot is.

Just lazy spirals over the Arctic.  The Toronto forecast shows rain for New Year Day.

************

Warmies should not read any further.

We are in for a fine one-week recharge.  Party like it's 1999 degrees C!  I'm just going to have fun pulling the grandkid on white Christmas snow.

ps. natgas believes in warmth, and it's never wrong.

Cold blob gets shoved out to sea

 

A slow, dry cold blob.  Not very much, and now we go into Arctic recharge.  Might get snow when the warmer air comes in.  A nice Christmas break for me, and I can't see myself writing for a while.

They're bringing 'Dead La Nina' up from its watery grave, so they can have a story.  Always believe every word they say.  I am really not in the mood to go against the groupthink.  

ps.  the Arctic is refilling with a beautiful lazy cyclone.  It hurts my brain to think of a mechanism of the warm cooling to 50 below.  What a weird 3d structure that would be.

ps it's just a simple drain vortex.

Socratic Science uses the word 'hypothesis' for the first time

 Reference

They have a nice picture and everything.

A team from the Alfred Wegener Institute proposes a compelling hypothesis: the Earth’s surface has become less reflective due to a decline in certain types of clouds. This reduction in reflectivity may help explain the additional warming.

They are proposing all sorts of things that happened at once.  As the article says, this is a 'compelling' hypothesis.  But it remains a dream, unless they measure things.  For example, it can all be measured using existing noosa stuff.  If they measure, they will come up against the 'physics third rail', which is that convection blows out radiation in cooling.  

This is just a classic Socratic Science thing of whipping up something after the fact.  As we know, before the Reformation, all scientific explanations were determined by Archimedes, the king of Socratic Science.  How did the rhinoceros get its spots?  All sorts of things, like curing people with a bang on the head.  How did we get back to that?

The Scientific Method was introduced to combat Socratic 'explanations'.  We don't do that any more.

ps. The Physics Hypothesis can stand up to measurements, but that isn't important these days.

ps. I just had a big tussle with Google Gemini AI to finally agree that convection is more efficient than radiation.  It won't tell me how much.

In summary: While both convection and radiation contribute to heat removal at room temperature, convection is typically the more dominant mechanism due to the factors mentioned above.

Deep Convection: Strong convective currents can reach the tropopause, especially in the tropics. This is often associated with the formation of thunderstorms and plays a crucial role in global atmospheric circulation.  

• At the bottom of the stratosphere (near the tropopause): The pressure is around 0.1 to 0.2 atm.

• At the top of the stratosphere (near the stratopause): The pressure is much lower, typically around 0.01 atm or even less.

Key takeaway: The stratosphere experiences a significant decrease in air pressure as altitude increases.

Earlier, it said that convection only moves heat energy to the top of the troposphere.  neat.

Snow in NYC

 Wet snow and then it will freeze.

Greenland is white, but the winds show the Arctic is going into recharge.

The Pacific plumes are squeezing out the cold.  The warm interludes should get shorter and shorter.

ps.  The Pacific Nino Zone continues its Death Dive.  I had thought it was turning to avoid the Doom of 1988.  Nope.

For NYC, the Gulf of Maine continues to 1988.  I use water as a stable temperature indicator.  My main hypothesis goes for breaking the bottom of these charts, but I don't predict any more.