Ding dong, the wicked cold is dead!

 Today we give a Christmas gift to all the warmies in nice top positions.  The cold is over forever.  The temperatures are going up to lobsterize all of us.  Your jobs are secure, there will be no pitchforks and torches at your gates.

We are back to last winter, when Pacific plumes warmed us all from that giant heating event, in a specific spot, that was caused by world covering clouds, caused by climate change.  It's a bit of a mouthful, but all the media gets it.

Look at Greenland melting!  

The anomaly plot is hot, hot, hot.  And we know how good the anomaly plot is.

Just lazy spirals over the Arctic.  The Toronto forecast shows rain for New Year Day.

************

Warmies should not read any further.

We are in for a fine one-week recharge.  Party like it's 1999 degrees C!  I'm just going to have fun pulling the grandkid on white Christmas snow.

ps. natgas believes in warmth, and it's never wrong.

Cold blob gets shoved out to sea

 

A slow, dry cold blob.  Not very much, and now we go into Arctic recharge.  Might get snow when the warmer air comes in.  A nice Christmas break for me, and I can't see myself writing for a while.

They're bringing 'Dead La Nina' up from its watery grave, so they can have a story.  Always believe every word they say.  I am really not in the mood to go against the groupthink.  

ps.  the Arctic is refilling with a beautiful lazy cyclone.  It hurts my brain to think of a mechanism of the warm cooling to 50 below.  What a weird 3d structure that would be.

ps it's just a simple drain vortex.

Socratic Science uses the word 'hypothesis' for the first time

 Reference

They have a nice picture and everything.

A team from the Alfred Wegener Institute proposes a compelling hypothesis: the Earth’s surface has become less reflective due to a decline in certain types of clouds. This reduction in reflectivity may help explain the additional warming.

They are proposing all sorts of things that happened at once.  As the article says, this is a 'compelling' hypothesis.  But it remains a dream, unless they measure things.  For example, it can all be measured using existing noosa stuff.  If they measure, they will come up against the 'physics third rail', which is that convection blows out radiation in cooling.  

This is just a classic Socratic Science thing of whipping up something after the fact.  As we know, before the Reformation, all scientific explanations were determined by Archimedes, the king of Socratic Science.  How did the rhinoceros get its spots?  All sorts of things, like curing people with a bang on the head.  How did we get back to that?

The Scientific Method was introduced to combat Socratic 'explanations'.  We don't do that any more.

ps. The Physics Hypothesis can stand up to measurements, but that isn't important these days.

ps. I just had a big tussle with Google Gemini AI to finally agree that convection is more efficient than radiation.  It won't tell me how much.

In summary: While both convection and radiation contribute to heat removal at room temperature, convection is typically the more dominant mechanism due to the factors mentioned above.

Deep Convection: Strong convective currents can reach the tropopause, especially in the tropics. This is often associated with the formation of thunderstorms and plays a crucial role in global atmospheric circulation.  

• At the bottom of the stratosphere (near the tropopause): The pressure is around 0.1 to 0.2 atm.

• At the top of the stratosphere (near the stratopause): The pressure is much lower, typically around 0.01 atm or even less.

Key takeaway: The stratosphere experiences a significant decrease in air pressure as altitude increases.

Earlier, it said that convection only moves heat energy to the top of the troposphere.  neat.

Snow in NYC

 Wet snow and then it will freeze.

Greenland is white, but the winds show the Arctic is going into recharge.

The Pacific plumes are squeezing out the cold.  The warm interludes should get shorter and shorter.

ps.  The Pacific Nino Zone continues its Death Dive.  I had thought it was turning to avoid the Doom of 1988.  Nope.

For NYC, the Gulf of Maine continues to 1988.  I use water as a stable temperature indicator.  My main hypothesis goes for breaking the bottom of these charts, but I don't predict any more.

Cold blob washes out

 So it was just an M6 blob, no energy.  You can't tell until they hit you.  There are 3 types of blobs that we have experienced over the last year.  This one is a 'sneaker'.  It comes in slow enough to slip under the warm air.  You see it on the ground winds, but there are no storms.

The second, somewhat rare, is the 'bulldozer'.  It comes with a perfectly flat vertical face, like a big blade, and shoves all the warm air ahead of it.  It comes in clean and fast.

The third is the 'smacker'.  This one is so fast and hard that it overrides the warm air and creates great instability.  Those were our big rain storms this summer.  The air wants to have cold air at the bottom, and warm air on top for stable layers.  This front causes huge rolling storms.  I once saw one while I was on a canoeing trip, and we were pooping bricks to try to get to our camp site.  The clouds were a giant cylindrical steam roller, coming to smash us flat.

Greenland has turned white, and we'll have more action.  I'm giving up on any more forecasts, since that is illegal.  Have fun!

Natgas is rapidly zooming up to 4.  The traders only react to cold, when it hits them in the face.

All of the US to shut down -- who cares about tariffs?

 

… And now, the end is near

And so I face the final curtain

My friend, I'll say it clear

I'll state my case, of which I'm certain

I've lived a life that's full

I traveled each and every highway

And more, much more than this

I did it my way

ps It didn't happen.  trumples was the moderate one.  muskie goes down in flames, by saying his is only comic relief.  

Courts silence the Fish

 I'm really, really gone, because the Montana Supreme Court has determined that we owe our rotten little kids a stable climate.  With our Socratic Science, which is all determined by majority rule and debate, we know that all current bad things are Carbon Warming, and before that, it was all good things.

Could we buy off the kids with more phones that throw more carbon into the air?  No, they would always want more, the greedy gluttons.  

I now believe that any mention of the climate not being stable (ie an ice cycle) is against the law, in the US.  And we know that the weenies will sell us out.  But not one guy!

I want to be US territory, like Guam.

In the meantime, trumpypants intends to invade us, while all our military equipment is in Europe.  Sad.  I'll be right on the front line with a big sign -- "Where's my money?"

ps I have feared for some time that clange will enter the legal system for harassment.  

State of the oceans - Merry Christmas

 This is the Christmas report.  The current big cold blob is being turned by Gulf warmth.  That puts is at M6, in terms of impact.  Not a Texas Buster, but NYC will have a nice pretty time.

You can see the decay of heat for the North Atlantic.  It has finally allowed the Arctic spill over the UK.  That will mean an exponential effect in heat release.

The Pacific Belt turbulence continues to be violent, and ignored by the mainstream.  They are finally going to make a La Nina out of this mess.

The Nino zone continues it's steepest dive in the record.  It may soon drop off the chart, but I see a very tiny hook.  Maybe we will level out to 1988.

The Gulf of Maine is dropping to 1998, a very good year.  muskie can save a lot on wages by not heating federal buildings.  NYC will be gorgeous to visit, but you won't be able to get in, for the snow.

ps Remember that in our world of Socratic Science, no physics that I show, is as important than what they choose to show.  All of this can be safely ignored.

ps. that's it then.  The Earth has to cough up a stable climate for everybody.

ps.  we will get a stable society and climate with this. 

Canada's Revenge #1 coming along nicely

 

The front is a bit raggy, but that could mean lots of things.

The UK's tropical plume has lost its legs.

Greenland is mostly whiteish, but, most importantly, it is spreading its 'black plague' out, which is important.

Although Hudson Bay is making a stand, it's not affecting the winds, and soon will be covered with the black ooze.

I would call this a decent M7, but it is not a 'Texas Buster'.

ps. we hope to freeze the 'over compensator' to the ground.

ps my official phoney hit count is going way down.  Let the winds blow as they may, I can't see anything in the future that requires me to comment, so I'll give everybody a Christmas break.

Linux -- getting samba to work on your local network

 If you follow moderate Linux security, you are so far ahead of Win security, you can't get anything to work.  I found that one of my mini computers with Debian had a firewall installed, and the other one didn't.  As far as I was concerned, I installed them the same way.

I had to totally kill the firewall, and that wasn't easy.  It was interfering with internal file transfers over samba.  Then, I found they have killed samba discovery for 'security' so smb4k didn't work at all.

Enter wsdd2, which is an extra daemon that does discovery.  Eventually, all the machines with the same workgroup can find each other.  I use samba to circulate my home videos.  Today, I glued a faux-pro to my winter coat, and walked the dog.  I should publish that!  It could put anyone to sleep -- dog goes here, dog goes there, dog pees.  Magnificent!!  I really wanted to catch our Friendly Neighbourhood wolf-coyote, but she's camera shy.

Feds down for the count, we need the premiers

 Poor surfer-dude is going for his walk in the snow.  They are out for any response.  The nice thing about a fed export tax would be that it would override any contracts.  We need something else.

We can choose the lead on this - Churchill Ford, Crazy Lady, or weenypp.  I am a bit biased here.

Canada's Revenge #1, is doing its job.  Natgas and electricity are vital to stop trumpypeople from freezing.  The price will go up, so no province is losing money, but we need more to jimmy the contracts.

If it's all spot prices, then that's fine, but I propose a bit more.

Oh dear, we are so incompetent that our natgas is not fine enough for trumpypeople.  We have to close them to polish the pipes.

Tabernac!  The wire she goes!  

Nuclear electricity is dangerous.  Hold on a sec while we write new standards.

We should be happy when energy costs triple for them.

And we'll say we are trying our best for horrible Canadians.  The women were running everything and we sent them all to baby farms.

And the band plays on -- somewhat cold

 As expected, the Toronto forecast advances the night extreme cold, and makes it colder.  They always do that when a cold blob comes down.

The front has spread a bit, so I'm thinking more M8.

Greenland should have been full white by now, but Atlantic plumes still have some life left in them.

The anomaly map shows we should get some good snow, but they still just call them flurries.  I would call them "Flurries From Hell".

The blob is now expressed in the ground winds, but I think Toronto will be hit by an 'override'.  That's when the kinetic energy of the blob is so high, it runs over the warm air, and then causes huge snow.  The good news (for Canada's Revenge) is that Hudson Bay is not deflecting the wind.  That means it has fully stratified, and is no longer pumping out heat.  The Great Lakes still have a while to go.

This movie will have endless sequels (CR-2, 3, etc) until it becomes a continuous series.  Am I just hopeful?  No, it happened exactly the same down Siberia, causing all the California rain, and was ignored.  

It would be ideal to strike with our "Christmas Present" of the 25% energy export tax now, in advance of trumply.  Unfortunately, our Iron Lady has jumped ship.

ps I knew the governments read my blog!  I also knew they would do this for "Silicoal Valley".  Burn baby, burn!

And it's too late for the warmies to kill me.  The cold will kill them first.

ps. pls note that the really bad rains we got over the summer were this mechanism of override.  The satellite is now showing the storms.  I just don't thing we'll be calling them flurries.

Media swept by bad math

 Reference

They were out by a factor of 10.  That is usual for leftie math.  They are probably out by a much higher factor, since the probability of your black plastic spatula coming from a recycled black plastic tv is a million to one.

So, no use for me chewing on black plastic, instead of banging my head against the wall, when faced with tons of leftie stupidity.  The math is just as bad for clange, but nobody dares say anything.  The black-plastic crowd doesn't control all studies and opinions.  However, please note that this isn't on the main media.  They don't do 'my bad'.

Continental sweep of cold blob confirmed

 By the authority invested in me (Ha!), I declare an M9 cold blob coming down on us.  It is also confirmed by the -12C night forecast for Toronto.

You can see the smooth front and it covers the whole top of the continent.  The last one, an M6, was only blobbing over Alberta.  

You can see the curve better on the Alaska shot.  

Greenland is getting a white zit, which confirms the M9.  Last time it was all black.  I'm calling it an M9, which is more dramatic, but could be an M8.  Since nobody measures energy, these numbers are meaningless.  It is just my hope that we will have good numbers one day.

The wind isn't telling us much, since an M9 is overriding the ground winds.  Again, my hope for full 3d air currents, but that would show clear-air convection, and the warmies can't have that.  As long as they are in charge, no physics for you!

Another reason to call it M9 is that there is powerful pressure on the Greenland Gap.

This will give the UK nice ice skating weather.

A true M9 will give Texas -20C, and cause natgas to double, as they panic about their feeble storage.  If it hits the Canadian 25% border at full strength, the bottle of champagne will burst from freezing, and we will name it "Canada's Revenge".  Of course, this could all just be a rehearsal for the next M9.  The uncertainties with real physics stops me from being a true "Physics Influencer".

For sure, it will give Toronto and Eastern US huge snowstorms.  This is much bigger than the last one.  Trumples doesn't care about the US freezing, but others might.  I hope my hero Doug Ford, pushes the weeny to lay down the 25% energy charge on everything.  Alberta won't mind, since they'll be selling everything they can at more than double.  They are restricted by pipeline capacity.

This one should stop the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay from turn-over (0C at the top).  Subsequent ones will lay on the ice.  Toronto will be back at -30C, but we have natgas, thanks to Ford.  Maybe Quebec has turned it off already.  The heating bills will be a bitch for all those speculator monster houses around Toronto.  Our 'recharge' interludes will get shorter and shorter, until it is continuous.

I'll stop spewing now.  Let the games begin!

ps the coyotes (wolves) are massing in the valley.  We haven't had them for years, so there are lots of rabbits, squirrels, raccoons, feral cats around for them to eat.  Valley neighbour says our big female always has a squirrel in her mouth, and the rabbits scream when they are caught.  They are expecting a big winter, so they can take down deer.   Things will get tetchy for small dogs when they run out of food.

ps OMG!  The only 'tough cookie' has left the weeny.  She doesn't want to be shoved again at trumples while the weeny hides.  Don't blame her.  I wish her the best.

(she looks upon the scene with horror).

Full continental sweep coming

 This is the fun time when I just see a hint of a cold blob, and I have no Greenland information.  I'll have more of an idea of the magnitude tomorrow.  Full white Greenland - M9.  

What you would need is full physics on the Arctic.  That would be the calculation of the total potential energy (kinetic), and the thermal well (negative temperature to ambient).  Then we would have a Magnitude estimate.

Fixing a potty

 Ok, when the only grandson from tornado alley California is zooming in for a visit, the grandma goes nuts, and investigates all the garbage on garbage day.  We have found lots of stuff in sad shape and have fixed it up.  We found this potty, but being modern-potty newbies, we didn't find the top seat.  That's probably because it goes on the toilet after, and will be in a different pile.

I got a $12 seat from ammie, and started to hack at it with my plunge saw.  Then I checked all the electronics.

They sent back a video of him in utter terror, then he laughed.

ps abuse your own toddler with that video, while filming him.

ps trending #1 on ticky.  Canada is offering a big buyback to get the assault potties off the street.

Tip of Pacific plume hits California and causes a tornado

 

This is a very rare event because the tips never hit California directly.  Usually, they hit the upper coast, but this time they have been forced down by cold air, and the lack of heat energy.  

Of course, they warmies will state this is climate change. and everybody will go along with it.  They never actually have a mechanism, or predict anything in advance, but all things are clange.  

Arctic still in recharge -- the pond is filling up

 

I really should be more interested in the mechanics of recharge.  It's really very interesting, but I would need a full 3d image of wind currents.  That's physics, so it is not happening.  We'll just be happy, thinking we'll never get another Arctic spill.

ps the 'Nino Zone' is a great thermometer for figuring out physics mechanics

This is the mask.  All expected Nino action would go through this. 

It is going down to 2022 and 1988 levels.  You may remember those winters.

The new nooa chart is out early.  I have stopped at 2022 and 1988.  Let's just call them dips, shall we?

ps.  today, on the dog walk, we ran into the Friendly Neighbourhood Coyote.  Roxie chased it with her Frisbee of Death in her mouth.  She has a formal way to chase, staying exactly 3 m behind, and then she comes back when we call.

ps oh, and we have another doomer 'End to all life' to add to the huge list.

It's 'overdue' which means they have no idea what controls the timing, and it is a million to one that it hits Earth directly.  I would put this with 'super volcano'.

Watching paint dry -- the fun of Arctic Recharge

 

Nothing going on here.  The giant tip bucket refills.  My mood is also stagnant.

ps the Atlantic Belt is finally diving.  If the warmiemaffy would do physics we could have a chart of total heat energy in the Atlantic, and if would be diving.

that should cause the north Atlantic to start getting cold.

ps we Canadians know that the loss of the furnace is an important thing.  The warmies are still dancing in the upper bedrooms, singing 'La, la, it's still warm up here!'

ps I am expecting 'Recharge Tiime' to slowly approach zero.

Another cold blob dies out, Arctic goes into recharge

 

The Atlantic heat fought back the moderate cold blob and won.  This is now the boring time, and I will stop writing for a while.  I was getting way too wild, going after the lefty-loony-lucys.  To be fair, I went after the tightie-righties with our Great War of Canada, and Ford-Churchill.  I feel it was too much, and I even used proper names, which increased search traffic.  I always make up names.

The only exciting change to this on-off pattern is when it goes 'full faucet'.  That's when the Atlantic runs out of heat energy and the Arctic just pours down the Canadian and Greenland channels.  

ps. they are now forced to redefine La Nina

Guardian puts out another threat to all life on the earth

 

I figure this is about their 10th threat to all life in the next decade or so.  Really, why add any more?  We already have the ruskies.  Anyway, they are prone to shoot early, since anxiety makes a lot of money for them.  Can't have too many threats to all life, huh?

They are the main pushers of global warming, but this will kill all those mutant bacteria.

They also push 'forever chemicals'.  Not so 'forever' now, losers.

So, just be happy we'll all die of something in next few decades, but it won't be anything they push.  Did they hit us with Covid anxiety?  Nope.  How about monster earthquakes?  Not really pushing asteroids, are they.  

If anybody really cared about threats, they would bring back the Scientific Method.  That would be somewhat useful in countering these threats.  Right now, these guys are just headless chickens running around.

The biggest threat to lefties are all these threats.  They should learn to drip them out one at a time.  Clange is almost done for with all this cold, so just go with one replacement.

ps really, I've had it.  I'm starting to chew on my mouse and keyboard.  They are black plastic and will kill me instantly.  Good-bye world.

Doug Ford is my hero - Ford for PM!

 

I will never vote for 'bought-out, deliberately blind' pp.  pp can't speak french either, those guys will vote for any weenie that speaks francie.  Ed Broadbent couldn't either, but he wasn't an idiot.

He'll get to ring the bell, but guess what?  It'll be frozen!

We don't cut off all the energy, we just put on the usual 25% export tax.  Done before.  We line up the weenies to do it for NYC electricity.  Those guys in NYC all run on electric space heaters.  Perhaps, the transformers and heaters will just blow up from over-use.  Can't wait to see those horrible train and subway lines, they fall apart on their own.  Ice is nice.

Will the stocks still be booming when the traders can see their breaths inside?  Will the keyboards freeze up?  Will they wear finger-gloves and beg scroogeytrump for another lump of coal?  Anyway, that 25% export tax will pay to lower our other exports by 25%.

This is fun!

ps. do we see weeniepp pounding the war drums?

ps. I just emailed Doug, that he makes a great war leader, looks like Churchill.  He has never responded, and never will, even though we walk the dog by his house, and smile at all the police.  I was once picked by a big power man, to be the technical adviser.  I had a buddy, who was a power person and follower.  The other power-people ganged up and destroyed him.  Eventually, my buddy fell due to a nuclear plant disaster.  That's why I bite all the hands that could feed me, and hide a lot.  I am political poison.

Moderate Arctic blast

 This is our new pattern.  It's funny that they trained a new AI on all the old weather patterns.  They're dead.  Our chaotic ocean currents have produced a new pattern.  Nobody sees it.

Without proper physics measurements, I can't really determine the full size (energy) of this monster.  I rate it as an M7, rather than the M8 of last time, or some of our M9s.  It's more of a Mothra, than a Godzilla.

The Blob That Ate New York is on the way.  Canada's revenge for scaring us with 25% tariffs.  Next time will be so bad that the US will shiver in fear.  Natgas will run out of storage, and go beyond $10.  We may let trumples buy some.

The extreme cold should be whipping down the Greenland Gap, but the Atlantic still has some life left in it, and the winds are diverting through Europe.

Spain is getting the collision zone between warm and cold.

It never rains, but it pours.

Canada doesn't suffer, because cold is cold.  We have lots of natgas that the warmies didn't manage to ban yet.  We've rejected electric cars, but my Toyota hybrids are good.  I'll go out for the dog walk in a fully closed parka.

ps. we must love our weather people.  They stand up for their fantasies, and are not constrained by reality.

ps. the North Atlantic is still amazingly warm with residual heat.  The extreme north is finally 'turning over" which happens at 4C and below.  The ice forms when the top hits 0C, and stays there.  Then fresh-water ice crystal start to form.

The ocean currents have drained all the Gulf heat, but the 'diffuse heat' is still strong.  I'm still going for January for all of the heat energy to dissipate.  At that point, the Arctic flow will leave continental Europe, and go straight down to the UK.

ps. so now, after the fact, we can rate this cold blob as small potatoes.  The total energy is determined by the extent, which is related to total kinetic energy.  

This one has veered off, and is scooping out warmth from the south.  As well, we have a major incursion of warm air from the Pacific.  An M9 blob goes straight down to Texas, and covers a huge area.  That will be the next one.