Monday, May 22, 2023

The search for fantasy -- El Nino, Toronto Housing, and Santa Claus

 When there were 3 houses for sale in the Toronto market, it was easy to disrupt all the stats, with one sale.  Now, the signs are popping up all over the neighbourhood.  It's the frenzy all over again, but with no money in the market.  At least this fantasy has a clear ending -- once the banks stop their hold on the market, it will go the way of bitcoin.

Of course, Santa Claus is real.

We are looking very hard for El Nino.  The weather people only define it as effects -- temperature and air pressure, not mechanics.  But the Pacific Belt is getting colder and colder.  They have built their expectations, and it will not come.  Of course, this won't be the end of the dream.  There is no end.  Everything is explained after the fact.  This will be explained as 'clange'.  They will not claim a '4th La Nina in a row', as that would be silly.  They'll just ignore it.  Just like the huge nooa drop in world temperatures was explained as '4th warmest April', in the 'single month' comparison.  That's totally irrelevant to do 'single month' with the world temperatures.  They never did it before, but now they do.

As we know, groupthink only ends with a disaster.  For Toronto housing, it will be a 50% drop, once the banks let go.  But, having all the charts drop, won't kill clange -- too much money involved.  Even an Arctic spill freezing the Thames won't do it.  

ps.  with my hypothesis, I will continue to predict, and will be right.  They will continue to explain after the fact, and will be right..

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