Two different probabilities, but both methods use temperatures and winds. Noaa is using their false splotch to get higher odds.
I followed the ocean currents during the last two El Ninos and the mechanism was obvious. Unfortunately, everybody else sees it differently. I give it a zero chance.
ps. really, really tried with nooa to resolve the apparent artifact in the temp anomaly map, but they don't do math. We will hope it just fades away. I suspect they don't have anybody any more that can look under the hood.
pps - I've made one last effort to find someone who does the math. This is always a great insult to the social-media person who is answering the mail.
pppps - Yeah, she's escalating for me.
endless -- Responses from both Climate reanalyzer and NOAA have confirmed that the splotch is real and is the growing of El Nino. I'm in the dog house now. My readership will just go to Mummy Guy. :(