I'm just writing this for the record, since nobody tracks this sort of thing. The cold feed to the Pacific Belt has increased.
The tiny bit of reversing at the East is fading away, and going back to a full cold water feed from the Antarctic waters.
You can see (at least I can) that the cold feed is increasing. However, the Hot Spot remains on the anomaly map, which means that the nooa calculations belong in the bin.
Although El Nino will erupt from the bottom of the sea any time now, I can't see the mechanism. All I see that in another month, it will be colder.
Of course, to give equal time to fantasy, things will get hotter, but it won't involve basic physics....
ps. this is a fun hunt for everybody, like searching for a comet. If I see it first, I get to call it 'El Fisho', and if my buddy sees it, he'll call it 'El Dryo'. However, the honour would be bitter-sweet, since it would break all the laws of physics, rather than merely influencing them away on tiks.
pss - irrelevant dog thing -- Yesterday was Victoria Day, and the neighbours go full out with fireworks. Normally, we find Roxie jammed under the bed in the basement, and we have to do a 'breach birth' to pull her out. But last night, we accidently left the tv on downstairs, and there she was, happily jammed into a corner and watching tv.
more: I have sent NOAA an 'official' letter notifying them of the error. We shall see.
even more -- Here's the world anomaly without the big math error.