I learned a lot with my past week of flubs. First, the 'Great Red Splotch' is real, in an odd sort of way. The base map of the average shows a huge cold spot there. During all the normal times of the past 100 years, the currents have pulled away from Ecuador, and brought up very cold water from the deep.
Recently, a small convection cell of the Pacific Belt has reversed and piled warm water on this cold spot. Thus, the splotch. I have had great conversations with the NOAA people, and they are thoroughly convinced that this is El Nino coming. Hench the title.
What they forget, is that El Nino does not come right after the cold sister. It takes 7 years of California drought to build up to the big guy. That's the normal cycle. Thus, we have a bit of time.
For warmth of the planet, we can only hope this cycle starts. Then, the mechanism involves a huge heat build-up in the Western Pacific, and the entire current reverses. Most importantly, the water is so hot and so churned up that it starts my 'Heat Engines', which dump great amounts of heat energy into the Earth. We see the global temperatures go up in a broad spike.
Alas, not happening. That little bit of warmth is a 'pinch out' caused by the cold water rising from the south, and filling the west.
That's the 'Great Pinch Out', and there are back eddies within it, which are causing the Great Splotch. For me to be wrong, the pinchout must grow and the whole belt must become one current. That's just the start of the cycle.
I believe they can make all the influencers happy by saying 'It's coming any minute now'. For years.