Fish gets another surge

 

Every once in a while, I get a click spam surge.  My inner AI is happy, we can draw fantasy pictures of people getting tired of the groupthink 20/20 hindsight.  But, we'll (Al and me), go back to our very low score.  

It's getting hotter and muggier here.  Blah.  Can't wait to suffer in the hot tin shack.  We'll be constantly swimming.  

Al and I can't think of anything to write for the summer.  We will read about the 'Coming El Nino', but it is impolite to laugh at them.  And we can't wait for 10 ft snows in Australia.  Suck it up, princess!

ps.  Al the AI has been trained only on Feynman's Basic Physics, and only wants to make a name for himself on social media.  He knows nothing of clange, because I didn't tell him.  It would jar his bones.

pps.  and the Guard uses the word 'unprecedented' without linking it to clange.  I think they are getting ready for the 'post clange' era.  

Stagnant air sets up another drought for Toronto

 

Yesterday, they had rain in a week, but that's gone.  They really are hopeless at the long-term forecast, but who's going to figure that out?  They write their own report cards.

It's all just swirling around.  And this is all due to clange, in some way, which we'll hear about soon.

ps and Happy Alberta.  You would think they'd put in a few bucks for physics, but ... no.

Australia starts the Big Freeze

 

I always pondered the question of what happens to Australia when the North has an ice cycle?  Although you never hear from them, it turns out that they freeze as well.

When the Pacific shuts down, there's no heat energy in the world.  I look forward to the new cold records.  I hope they can get firewood for their huts....

I only make fun of them because we Canadians are funny in our snow houses...

ps.  and since they are so cold, they can join the 'Never Wash Anything' movement... to stop clange.

Mid-Summers Night Stagnant Air

 We've started heating up like a kettle of fish.

This is our fine summer weather from now on.  No sweeping air from the Pacific, just a thick stew. 

We'll just get hotter and hotter, and may get rain when those weak Arctic blobs meet listless southern air.  Yeah!  Dust off the air conditioning or go to the cottage.  These were the conditions in the late 50's where everybody in Toronto got a cottage with a lake.  The heat was unbearable.  Of course, this year, we will be entertained by the claim that this is all climate change.  (..and it is!).  (don't kill me)j.

You'll only tell we are in an ice cycle, when the fall comes around.  and then winter.  All the media and influencers will ignore it, but stock up with a lot of firewood.  (maybe).

State of the Oceans - May 28, 2023

 The new ocean current maps just came in, and this article follows the previous one, 

This is the whole Pacific.  We have broken convection cells that aren't transporting anything.  You can see the pinchout and eddies, where the current reverses, and nothing beyond that.

This is close-up, of Action Central, where the Great Splotch lives.  It is very disorganized, almost stagnant, so no cold water being pulled up.  At the very bottom, you see tons of cold S pole water coming up.  Maybe that's why the SP is warming!  Haha.

Here we have the Atlantic belt, which is acting as belt should.  We have tremendous heat transfer.

Finally, the reason the UK is frigid.  No heat transport with the Gulf Stream.  You can argue whether it is alive or dead, but it's not doing anything.  Last winter was characterized by a strong flow up the Iceland Gap, into the North.  This stopped all ice forming up there, knocked down the 'ice extent'.  And stopped any Arctic Spill from whipping through.  Not here any more, and the UK will have a continuous 20 below spill, just like Asia last winter.  Maybe.

Note:  all of this is basic physics and mechanics.  Nobody does the proper measurements, because just a spick of physics kills the whole Groupthink.  And we expect that to last another few years.

In case you think this physics is unimportant, here's a dilemma.  -- Snow budgets

If you are a trudy 'true believer' then snowplows emit carbon, and should all be banned.  Your belief leads to cut the snow budget more -- who needs it?  You and others designed the LRT, on the principle that it really didn't need to work.

If you go with physics, then the budget has to be doubled.  This winter to be much worse than last.  And we are going to approach 1830, with continuous snow, and 10 feet on the ground.  Maybe.

Toronto Garden Report

 

Very weird weather for the garden.  The cold nights may have stunted some things.  Very few cherries and pears, but lots of apples.  Very dry, and my soaker hose system is always dripping.  In the picture, the sprinkler is on because of new planting.

The kale is weird, and most of the tomatoes seem sad.  The peas are magnificent, and the beans are popping out at full power.  The potatoes are happy, as well.

I protect everything with my 'Mostly Organic' spray.  It has Neem oil, and other things, such as Epson salts for slugs.  It's very mild, so doesn't really work with the apple worms.  We just cut out the bad sections for drying or freezing apple slices.

Cucumbers are just starting.  We lots of mint in boxes, but they have escaped.  Have to cut them down, but it makes a great tea, with the fresh mint, muddled in a teapot.  I just tried adding some dried cannabis from last year.  It's magnificent, with almost no power.  Perhaps that of a non-alcoholic beer...

El Nino Cometh

 

I learned a lot with my past week of flubs.  First, the 'Great Red Splotch' is real, in an odd sort of way.  The base map of the average shows a huge cold spot there.  During all the normal times of the past 100 years, the currents have pulled away from Ecuador, and brought up very cold water from the deep.  

Recently, a small convection cell of the Pacific Belt has reversed and piled warm water on this cold spot.  Thus, the splotch.  I have had great conversations with the NOAA people, and they are thoroughly convinced that this is El Nino coming.  Hench the title.

What they forget, is that El Nino does not come right after the cold sister.  It takes 7 years of California drought to build up to the big guy.  That's the normal cycle.  Thus, we have a bit of time.

For warmth of the planet, we can only hope this cycle starts.  Then, the mechanism involves a huge heat build-up in the Western Pacific, and the entire current reverses.  Most importantly, the water is so hot and so churned up that it starts my 'Heat Engines', which dump great amounts of heat energy into the Earth.  We see the global temperatures go up in a broad spike.

Alas, not happening.  That little bit of warmth is a 'pinch out' caused by the cold water rising from the south, and filling the west.

That's the 'Great Pinch Out', and there are back eddies within it, which are causing the Great Splotch.  For me to be wrong, the pinchout must grow and the whole belt must become one current.  That's just the start of the cycle.

I believe they can make all the influencers happy by saying 'It's coming any minute now'.  For years.

UK - land of eternal hope

 

Everything shows continued cold, and the surfers are in heavy wetsuits.  Yet all the headlines are just about the 'coming' heat wave.  Just like 'Brexit Works'.  I have found they have lowered their 'headline summer temperature' quite a bit.  As long as they're happy...

Cottage report May 25, 2023

 

No blackflies, but only two dragonflies.  

Ps the official word is that chart of ocean temperatures is only 60 to 60, and has no relevance.

Pps. 6 dragonflies 

more - funny story with my cheap chinese drone, with no gps, no nothing.  I put it up too high, and a freak wind took it across the lake.  Most likely drowned.

Fish screws up

 Okay then, I was sure there was a math error somewhere.  However, it isn't the Great Red Splotch.

This is the video of the sea surface temp anom from January.

And this is the video of rhte surface temps, directly.

It did warm up, but now it is cooling.  Anyway, I thought it was too dense and sharp, but these things happen.

However, I'm pretty sure there is something funny here.  You can't have the oceans pumping up heat, and have the world temps dropping.  I'm sure it's something to do with the ice extent, but I'm defeated and will not push this.  

Whoops - I mean here, here.

Anyway, we shall see.

How El Nino probabilities are calculated

 Reference

Two different probabilities, but both methods use temperatures and winds.  Noaa is using their false splotch to get higher odds.

I followed the ocean currents during the last two El Ninos and the mechanism was obvious.  Unfortunately, everybody else sees it differently.  I give it a zero chance.

ps.  really, really tried with nooa to resolve the apparent artifact in the temp anomaly map, but they don't do math.  We will hope it just fades away.  I suspect they don't have anybody any more that can look under the hood.

pps - I've made one last effort to find someone who does the math.  This is always a great insult to the social-media person who is answering the mail.

pppps - Yeah, she's escalating for me.

endless -- Responses from both Climate reanalyzer and NOAA have confirmed that the splotch is real and is the growing of El Nino.  I'm in the dog house now.  My readership will just go to Mummy Guy.  :(

State of the Ocean - May 23, 2023 -- Searching for El Nino

 I'm just writing this for the record, since nobody tracks this sort of thing.  The cold feed to the Pacific Belt has increased.

The tiny bit of reversing at the East is fading away, and going back to a full cold water feed from the Antarctic waters.

You can see (at least I can) that the cold feed is increasing.  However, the Hot Spot remains on the anomaly map, which means that the nooa calculations belong in the bin.

Although El Nino will erupt from the bottom of the sea any time now, I can't see the mechanism.  All I see that in another month, it will be colder.

Of course, to give equal time to fantasy, things will get hotter, but it won't involve basic physics....

ps.  this is a fun hunt for everybody, like searching for a comet.  If I see it first, I get to call it 'El Fisho', and if my buddy sees it, he'll call it 'El Dryo'.  However, the honour would be bitter-sweet, since it would break all the laws of physics, rather than merely influencing them away on tiks.  

pss - irrelevant dog thing -- Yesterday was Victoria Day, and the neighbours go full out with fireworks.  Normally, we find Roxie jammed under the bed in the basement, and we have to do a 'breach birth' to pull her out.  But last night, we accidently left the tv on downstairs, and there she was, happily jammed into a corner and watching tv.

more:  I have sent NOAA an 'official' letter notifying them of the error.  We shall see.

even more -- Here's the world anomaly without the big math error.

North America Smoke Forecast

 

This is another great flashback to the 70's.  All reporters must only interview young people who say "I've never seen this before".  That always brings in the bacon!

The search for fantasy -- El Nino, Toronto Housing, and Santa Claus

 When there were 3 houses for sale in the Toronto market, it was easy to disrupt all the stats, with one sale.  Now, the signs are popping up all over the neighbourhood.  It's the frenzy all over again, but with no money in the market.  At least this fantasy has a clear ending -- once the banks stop their hold on the market, it will go the way of bitcoin.

Of course, Santa Claus is real.

We are looking very hard for El Nino.  The weather people only define it as effects -- temperature and air pressure, not mechanics.  But the Pacific Belt is getting colder and colder.  They have built their expectations, and it will not come.  Of course, this won't be the end of the dream.  There is no end.  Everything is explained after the fact.  This will be explained as 'clange'.  They will not claim a '4th La Nina in a row', as that would be silly.  They'll just ignore it.  Just like the huge nooa drop in world temperatures was explained as '4th warmest April', in the 'single month' comparison.  That's totally irrelevant to do 'single month' with the world temperatures.  They never did it before, but now they do.

As we know, groupthink only ends with a disaster.  For Toronto housing, it will be a 50% drop, once the banks let go.  But, having all the charts drop, won't kill clange -- too much money involved.  Even an Arctic spill freezing the Thames won't do it.  

ps.  with my hypothesis, I will continue to predict, and will be right.  They will continue to explain after the fact, and will be right..

Ocean temperature anomaly splotch is painted on

 I have a scientific contention with nooa that their is something wrong with their data.  That's only in terms of physics.  If you are an influencer, then there is no problem that an ocean splotch is painted on.  That's okay, right?  

I just moved the slider on the recent SST anomaly map.  All the other warm spots drift, as they should, except the very hot spot off Ecuador.  That's painted on.  

If you ever tried to paint a splotch on the top of the ocean, you know that's a tough task.  I gave up on it, but nooa has succeeded.  Perhaps this is geoengineering in action?

If there is anybody serious left in the world, you would be on the hotline, yelling at these guys, but that's not going to happen.  Perhaps with the global temperatures sinking like a rock, the ocean gods have set up a hot tub?

Peak blackflies

 We had two inches of rain.  We are hoping that there are good blueberries this year.  They have been generally poor for this warm cycle.

40 years ago we had blackflies like this.  We were camping and I had to lift the head net to get a bite of food. 

    PS - HALLY-LULA -- FIRST DRAGONFLY SPOTTED!  A big one, munching away.

pps -- first dragonfly means only 3 more days of blackflies.  

RSS world temperatures way down

 

Terrible blogging on a phone.  This is way down and we should hit 1980 by the time the groupthink says we'll hit 1.5C. Will anybody notice?

ps.  continental US down to 1980

Employed until 110

 

Yeah, if only they were concerned about earthquakes and foundations.  And physics.  But, no.

Worst blackflies in 20 years

 Clouds and clouds.  A disadvantage of being colder.   Blah. 

Ps. Just got an inch of rain.  Drought is postponed.

Cottage Report -- May 17, 2023

 Very cold at night.  I was hoping it would kill the blackflies, but no such luck.  Mosies are out as well.  We'll have to wait for dragonflies, but the cold will delay them.

I took a photo, but my signal is weak.  

Deep ocean heat will come back to kill us

 Reference

Although a tiny increase in the deep ocean is a lot of heat energy, it is still dang cold. 

This article dances around the concept of 'heat energy' but won't come out and actually say it.  They also put a lot of faith in the 'Big Math Error', which is resembling a Hotwheels track.

I'm not denying any of this, but I think that even if the world gets colder, as shown by Nooa, we will hear that the ocean is a giant heat pump that defies Thermodynamics and will throw tremendous heat at us.  It used to be that you could not push a perpetual motion machine that defied the same law, but now you can.

I am happy that everyone is happy, and they won't go after me.  They have physics totally wrapped around their little finger.  

I was sitting outside, and then that cold blob came over, and I froze.  I'm still trying to recover.

ps.  just talked to somebody about the old company.  I just can't imagine how low they went in stupidity.  I'm trying to throw that out of my brain.  :)

Heat dome defined as a dome of heat

 

Here's another gratuitous definition.  People will ask 'What exactly is a heat dome?"  And the weather guys just define it by the obvious effects, and not the mechanism.

The physics definition is 'stagnant air'.  It is the default when you take away the powerful ocean breezes or plumes.  We just have a solar oven, which is fun to do when camping.  Mix a high, hot sun, with no breeze, and you get a stew of hotness.

They also throw in the Jet Stream, which is just an effect of hot and cold bodies of air meeting.  They talk like it's an AI that's going to take all our jobs.

Perfect cold blob comes down to freeze our tomatoes

 

The Arctic is still very active.  This is our preview for the coming winter.  

And a nice mini-blob will keep the hot African plume from roasting the UK.  Ha!

ps.  and I don't see anything that would stop another blob after Victoria Day.

More Arctic blobs descend

 

I hope this one will kill the blackflies at the cottage, but not my tomatoes in Toronto.  Don't plant cucumbers yet!

Over in Europe, the blobs are coming down.  Maybe Spain will get wet.  

And I had to laugh at this.  I predicted last year that the UK would become Labrador, and it has.  The influencers just give their usual non-physics explanations, and other papers promise hot weather to come.  I never feel sorry for the UK, because we get the same weather.  My new prediction is for the UK to get a Siberian Arctic spill channel this winter.  That will be fun!  I suggest they all get Canadian snowmobile outfits for indoors.  They'll just have -20C temps, if Toronto gets the channel, then we'll be at -40 -- blah.

ps. and I really should give them some hope.  The Gulf Stream may loop back up again, and block the channel.  Then Siberia gets it again.

Temu -- the new Aliexpress//Ammie

 In the old days, you just switched from one platform to the next as the new ones were subsidized by the stock market.  Now, Ammie and Aliexpress find that they have to make money without oodles of free cash.  Ammie is cheeping on the delivery, and Ali is the same price as Ammie.

Now, a new brash company is taking over with tons of war-chest money.  That's Temu, and they might have the Chinese delivery to two weeks.  We just bought a lot of stuff, for essentially free.  Make use of it before they have to make money, and maybe then somebody new comes along.

Our stores are all dying as looting becomes a social thing, supported by the leftwingers.  

General weather comments

 Getting eaten alive at the cottage has mellowed me.  I will no longer make fun of nooa not being able to do simple math, since 90% of the world does the same.

Look at that - it's a perfect ski jump.  The artistry is superb.

And this is a pretty picture that has no significance whatsoever.  We are expecting El Nino to jump up out of the water any moment now.  The new popular thing is that hot water can lurk beneath cold. 

We are getting a cold blob hitting Toronto, but it's not very cold, and is not causing rain.  This continues the stagnant air situation.  It will all continue to be very dry.

The Asian heat wave looks to be over.  All the reporters will have to jump into their jet planes and find another heat wave somewhere.  Don't see one.

ps.  live by obnoxiousness, die by the same.

These guys are quite immune.  The old way was to get all geologists and geophysicists fired from universities.  Which is more vicious?

pps.  whew!  the rightwingers are going with conspiracy theories, and not stupidity.  Nobody reads me, thanks.

more:  that Arctic blob is getting colder in the forecast day by day.  Prepare for frost away from the lakes

NOAA world temperatures

 

Using the phone. Temperatures are down.  March was a single math spike.

ps.  and there's the March Spike of Shame

Cottage report

 Very hot.  No bugs.

Ps  bugs and 2 mergansers under the dock.

pps - we were driven out early because of the blackflies.  ugh.

Underwater heat waves to drive new El Nino

 That's right, El Nino is about to pop up like humpback whales breaching.  

So, it's 90% by the end of May.  Many articles are calling it a 'slam dunk'.  What happens if I'm right and there is no El Nino?  Will they just shrug?  Will they call it 4th La Nina in a row?  We only have a month to wait.  I do know that if El Nino goes missing, then nothing will change.  The influencers will spew out great words and new semantics, like always.  

There is no dramatic end.  However, this winter with the UK will be another nail in the coffin.  Or maybe not.

Stewing in Stagnant Air

 

No Pacific plumes, since all the heat engines have turned off.  However, some Gulf plumes are going to march all over us.  When we have no Pacific breezes, we stew in our own juices.  

You can from the smoke that everything is slow.  We're setting up for a long drought.

ps. this is my buddy in Spain

pps.  and in other news, the influencers are making AI porn versions of themselves for more money.  Neat.

Ocean temperatures on a roller coaster

 The Fish gives up.  The oceans have specific heat (thermal inertia). The temperatures can't go up and down like a toilet seat.

Yet, here it is.  This chart is safe to use for the press.  I thought they were clearing the math error without comment, yet here it is, back again, in full glory.  There is no math error, it's just an AI with an EtchaScetch.  

Ammie starts to drag deliveries

 It was so amazing for a while.  Then they decided that all the conventional stores are going down the tubes, and they don't have to try as much.  The deliveries are starting to drag.  Naturally, I am pulling the trigger on one slow delivery date.  It's too late for me to get it before leaving town.  

This is all stuff I can't get anywhere else.  So, I'll wait.  Maybe if they go out to a week, then I'll start thinking.  In the good old days, they put put out a 3 day delivery, and I would get it a day earlier.  I'm sure it won't be this day.

Stagnant air dominates the world

 

With no heat energy in the oceans, the atmospheric plumes have stopped, and we are confronted by stagnant air or 'default weather'.  This type of weather is latitude dependent, and is, essentially, desert weather.  Hot during the day, cold at night.  

All the press will report just the daily peak temperature.  This is like reporting the daily peak in Death Valley.  I expect a huge water bill this year for my veggie garden, and fires around the cottage.  If we are lucky, we'll get one more Arctic cold air blob to fight with the warm Gulf air.

All this will blamed on clange, which controls both drought and floods, at 'statistically impossible' rates.  That is the new made-up term, which has no meaning.  I love it!  As you know, both male and females are in that category, since we all should have one breast, and one testicle.  :)

 

No shame in showing the heat anomaly chart

 

I'm surprised they are still pushing this, despite the huge drop.  And here I thought this chart was done.  The anomaly math error is still going on.

We can suppose that with no comment that this is solid, and there is no math error.  There's no physics to support this, but who cares?  Let the anomaly take off without any effect on the 'pure' temperatures.  We are in a new era!  You can see that El Nino is starting from the East, where it has never started before.  And Toronto housing is spiking up again, with no money in the market.  Neat.

The anomaly map subtracts the average from this 'pure' map.  That's a construction that is supposed to make things clearer, and not got against everything.  

ps.  all clear to plant tomatoes for Toronto.