Saturday, April 1, 2023

The mechanism of the Little Ice Age

 The Little Ice Age (lia) was off and on.  One winter the Thames froze, and then nothing the next.  I never figured that out, until this winter.

The Arctic is a big bowl of milk.  It has highlands all around except in a few places.  This winter, there was a continuous spill of Arctic air that went through Siberia, and caused all the California rain.  It was the biggest cold event of the recent satellite years, and was totally unreported because it was cold and in the middle of nowhere.

Looking at the map, you can see the lowlands that allowed the spill.  Some went through the Bering Straight, but that was very little.

The mechanism was simple.  This winter, the Cold Pacific produced very little strong tropical plumes to hit the Arctic.  It was left in peace, and formed a huge 'lake' of very cold air, which is also very dense.  Once the spill started, it continued to pull, like Silly Putty.  

The rest of the world had a party on how mild the winter was.  Later in the season there were a few spills down the Greenland spillway.  

Here is the big prediction for next winter...  It's a matter of chance on which spillway becomes activated -- that darn old butterfly.  But once activated, it's all winter.  Next year, the Greenland spillway will be the main channel.  That will pour over the UK, and freeze the Thames, if it can be frozen with all the floodworks on it.  All of Europe will enjoy the spill, and we have another lia.  The prediction is strong because the spillways rotate and it is UK's turn.  We never get a spill channel over Canada because of the highlands.  We just get blobs of cold air, which is our usual winter.

When this cold air spills over the UK, they can enjoy their leaky windows and no insulation.  The windmills and solar panels will be covered by 6 inches of ice.

I will note this in my prediction book, and only bring out the ones that are right.  If Europe is the next spillway, then I shall gloat excessively.  The good news is that Northern Spain will get some rain again, or snow.

No comments: