Friday, March 31, 2023

Scientific Method

 After days of moping, I have finally figured out a response to my brow-beating on Mastodon.


#physics #weather Scientific Method  OK, a major disagreement on the philosophy of the SM.  It is my understanding that the SM requires a fixed hypothesis, that follows the current thinking and all laws of physics.

  You cast that hypothesis, like plate tectonics, and you wait for further data.  The hypothesis stands or falls.  The late J. Tuzo Wilson was a consultant to us, and he regaled us with stories of his constantly failing hypotheses.  He enjoyed the process of failure, and then he got things right.

  I have cast the hypothesis that ocean currents and convection dominate the weather, and I am waiting for it to fail.  Then I will do another one.  No sweat. No money involved, No personal glory.

  The hypothesis is measured by the official world temperatures as determined by satellite.  This has been a constant method since 1980.  The world temperatures on these charts is going down.  

  I throw down the glove and wait.  Many political organizations cannot take a failure of their position, and there are trillions of dollars at stake.  I have nothing at stake.

  There are other positions that are not SM.  That is the ‘Discovery Method’ of adjusting explanations as new things are discovered.  I have found it is good entertainment, but not useful.


There is no response, and I really didn't realize how everybody has rejected the SM.  I am the only person in the world who supports it.  I'll go down with this ship, and let everybody have their party-hearty.  

ps. as an example, the DM people put out a lot of doomer predictions for click-bait and then forget them when they don't happen.  They have said that La Nina is dead and El Nino is coming soon.  This won't happen, and it will be forgotten, or passed off with an explanation that it is due to the Antarctic ice melting.  This is acceptable to most of the world.

pps.  this new thing about 'rewriting history' is what dooms the SM.  The old problem of 'making things up as you go along' was that the 'model' became extremely complex.  We had the 'clockwork universe' which justified the thought that the Earth was the centre of the universe.  Every new 'planet retrograde' had to be incorporated as new gears.  People dropped it.  However, now we can 'reboot' all the previous assumptions by dropping them.  I am always amazed.

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