Toronto housing in free fall

Normally I wait for the month's sales figures and the big chart.  But they are so slow this month, that I'll make everything up.  That's what I do when the 'powers' don't cough up legitimate stuff.  If, however, the charts show happy news, I'll put in a retraction.

The physics predicted this in November.  Basic Physics is the study of forces acting on mass, I use it all the time when I'm trashing the warmies.  The basic force of housing is the money flowing in.  Too much money and prices zoom, no matter the legitimate demand.

In November that money flow stopped.  First the Trumpy victory crashed the bond market, and the Chinese stopped their money flow.  Total death for Toronto.  But the body kept twitching for months, until desperate sellers came out.

The new charts will show the impact of desperate sellers.  Pricing and volume will be down, but it's not over yet.  The big guys say words like 'normalization', etc.  They've all priced in a 20% drop.  New home buyers will be happy and buy like crazy in the fall.

Ha!  Not going to happen.  The entire Ontario economy has relied on housing and foreign money flowing in.  Everybody works for the banks or some company that builds things.  Does anybody see a problem here?  If not, then don't worry, be happy.

I predict that all the margin speculators will have to dump.  And we have interest rate rises coming, the main effect being that they can't drop interest rates to stop the freefall.  By the Fall, we'll have a fall of 30% and dropping further.  It may stop at 50%  but that is dependent on how much empty spec housing is shaken out of the tree.

I'll tack on the chart when it is out.  It really won't tell us anything new.

Effects of El Nino not dead yet

I was having a discussion with warmies on the Guardian, the last great defender, when they hit me with the 'fact' that El Nino was over, and it was still warm.  That's why you can never win in these debates because they keep pulling fake bunnies out of the hat.

Also there was the problem of 'sizing' El Ninos for comparison.  This is a standard earthquake problem, so I propose that the 'magnitude' is proportional to the area under this graph.

That makes this El Nino a Magnitude 8 and 1997 was an m7 or 6.  The warmies have their "Chart of a Million Corrections", with no error bars.

They are happy because they recently corrected satellite measurements to fall in line with the main curve.  I suggested they should correct for the current El Nino, but they said it was dead.

You can see that Europe is being hit by direct hot air from the Gulf Stream which is super-powerful right now.  The North Pacific current is dead, so Alberta is being hit directly by warm ocean air.  That El Nino temperature blip has to fall, the physics demands it.  But not yet.

The warmie chart is going to fall like Toronto housing prices.  I won't be happy because I'll be freezing.

NOTE:  blah, I should read things more.  That last chart is still satellite.  I can't find the 'official' warmie chart, although I have looked heavily.

Nifty crossbow toys banned in China

Ah, let's lament the great crossbow toothpick shooter.  This was the biggest fad since the fidget spinner, and was all over China.  Until the pampered only-child boys started killing each other.  Seems you could easily substitute a finishing nail.

I read the article on the Guardian and immediately put in an order for one, before Canada could ban them.  Look out red squirrels!  The one I ordered was a friggin compound bow, twice the power of a single bow.  Alas, China banned the things before the order could get out.  Drat, who da thunk it?

Now we need a spinning disk shooter where you can substitute a sharpened quarter.  Look out squirrels!

ps.  I have never actually hit the stupid things, but I've gotten close enough to keep them from digging into my cottage.  One look at my beady eyes and they run.  :)